2017 BOMA Idaho Commercial Real Estate Symposium Slideshow

Construction & Development Video

Greeting and President’s Message

Krisjan Hiner

Stack Rock Group : Landscape Architecture

Master of Ceremony

2017 BOMA Idaho President

2016 Symposium Sponsors

#2017bomasymposium

Governor’s Address

Governor Butch Otter

Mayor’s Address

David Bieter

City of Boise

Market Updates

Wes Jost Regional Economic Presentation

Theresa Drake Saving Energy Makes Good Business Sense

Karena Gilbert Office & Industrial Market Updates

Clay Anderson Investment Market Update

LeAnn Hume Retail Market Update

Travis Rothweiler Highlight City: Downtown Boise

Brent Wilson Idaho Falls Market Update

Tommy Ahlquist Commercial Development Stimulates our Economy

Regional Economic Overview

Wes Jost

Commercial Real Estate Group

Percent Change: 2015 to 2016U.S. Rate = 0.7%

Population Loss

0.7% to 1.4% (at or above U.S. rate)

0.2% to 0.6%

1.5% or more

0.0% to 0.1%

NM

0.0%

UT

2.0%

AZ

1.7%

CA

0.7%

NV

2.0%

OR

1.7%

TX

1.6%

OK

0.4%

CO

1.7%

WA

1.8%

ID

1.8%

MT

1.0%

WY

-0.2%

ND

0.1%

SD

0.9%

MN

0.7%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.4%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.3%

WI

0.2%

IL

-0.3%IN

0.3%

OH

0.1%

FL

1.8%

TN 0.9%

KY 0.3%

MS

0.0%AL

0.2%

GA

1.1%

SC

1.4%

NC 1.1%

VA

0.5%

WV

-0.5%

PA

-0.1%

NY

0.0%

ME

0.2%

AK

0.6%

HI

0.2%

MA

0.4%

VT

-0.2%

NH

0.4%

RI

0.1%CT

-0.2%

NJ

0.1%

DE

0.8%

MD

0.4%

MI

0.1%

DC

1.6%

KS

0.0%

Idaho Population 3rd Fastest Growing in U.S.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

19

81

19

83

19

85

19

87

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15

Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population

10,296

18,869

1,683,140

Idaho Population and Components of Change

Source: Zions Bank analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data

Tota

l Po

pu

lati

on

Co

mp

on

ents o

f Pop

ulatio

n C

han

ge

Percent Change in Employment for States: December 2015 to December 2016U.S. Rate = 1.5%

Note: Seasonally AdjustedSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics

NM

-0.3%

UT

2.8%

AZ

1.3%

CA

2.0%

NV

3.0%

OR

3.1%

TX

1.8%

OK

-0.3%

CO

1.9%

WA

3.0%

ID

1.9%

MT

0.9%

WY

-2.8%

ND

-1.8%

SD

1.4%

MN

1.5%

NE

0.7%

KS

-0.7%

IA

0.5%

MO

2.3%

AR

0.4%

LA

-0.2%

WI

1.0%

IL

0.5%IN

0.8%

OH

0.8%

FL

3.1%

TN 1.6%

KY0.6%

MS

-1.0%

AL

1.0%

GA

2.4%

SC

1.7%

NC 2.0%

VA

1.3%

WV

1.4%

PA

0.5%

NY

1.2%

ME

0.0%

AK

-1.4%

HI

2.1%

MA

2.1%

VT

0.7%

NH

1.7%

RI

0.7%

CT

-0.1%

NJ

0.3%

DE

0.5%

MD

1.1%

MI

1.7%

DC

2.3%

Loss

1.5% to 1.9% (at or above the U.S. rate)

2.0% or more

1.0% to 1.4%

0.0% to 0.9%

Idaho Employment Growth 12th Highest in the Nation

227,000 Jobs Added in January

-900

-700

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

8.7 Million Jobs Lost

15.2 MillionJobs Recovered

Payr

oll

Ch

ange

00

0’s

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

1,000

300

500

1,500

2,800

2,400

400

2,600

1,600

400

0

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

Government

Other Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Ed. & Health Serv.

Prof. & Bus. Serv.

Financial Activity

Information

Trade, Trans., Utilities

Manufacturing

Construction

Ntl. Res. & Mining

Total: 13,500

Source: Idaho Department of Labor

Idaho Employment Gains and Losses by Industry

Total Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: December 2015 – December 2016

-7.0

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Year

U.S. Idaho

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Idaho Job Growth Higher than Nation for Past Two Years

400

500

600

700

800

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Tho

usa

nd

s o

f Em

plo

yee

s

Total Nonfarm Employment

Loss of 59,000 jobs from

2007 - 2010

Gain of 102,000 jobs since low

in 2010

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjustedNote: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand

Idaho Total Employment at New Highs

Unemployed and Discouraged Workers Showing Little Change

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

U-6 (Underemployed) U-3 (Unemployment)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

2015 U.S. = $56,516; 2015 Idaho = $51,624

NM

$45,119

UT

$66,258

AZ

$52,248

CA

$63,636

NV

$52,008

OR

$60,834

TX

$56,473

OK

$47,077

CO

$66,596

WA

$67,243

ID

$51,624

MT

$51,395

WY

$60,925

ND

$57,415

SD

$55,065

MN

$68,730

NE

$60,474

KS

$54,865

IA

$60,855

MO

$59,196

AR

$42,798

LA

$45,922

WI

$55,425

IL

$60,413IN

$51,983

OH

$53,301

FL

$48,825

TN

$47,330

KY$42,387

MS

$40,037AL

$44,509

GA

$50,768

SC

$46,360

NC

$50,797

VA

$61,486

WV

$42,824

PA

60,389

NY

$58,005

AK

$75,112

HI

$64,514

MA

$67,861VT

$59,494

NH

$75,675

RI

$55,701CT

$72,889

NJ

$68,357DE

$57,756

MD

$73,594

MI

$54,203

DC

$70,071

$56,516 to $64,999 (At or above U.S.)

$50,000 to $56,515

$65,000 or more

$45,000 to $49,999

$44,999 or less

ME

$50,756

Idaho Median Household IncomeBelow National Average

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

National Economic Headwinds(Pre-Presidential Election)

• National and international uncertainty

• Discouraged workers continue to hold back

• Questionable energy prices

• Depressed business investment

• Unstable inflation outlook

• Consumer spending and consumer confidence remain low

National Economic Tailwinds(Post-Presidential Election)

• Consumer and business confidence rebounding

• Higher expectations of economic growth and inflation

• Idaho job growth among the best in the country

• Unemployment low and dropping

• Construction activity on the rise

• Agriculture supports a strong state economy

Sources: Idaho Division of Financial Management and Moody’s Economy.com e = estimate f = forecast

3.4

4.9

3.9

1.9

1.4

12

4.4

3.8

1.8

1.5

23.8

3

3.8

3.1

1.4

0 5 10 15 20 25

Housing Starts

Personal Income

Unemployment Rate

Nonfarm Employment

Population

2016 2017f 2018f

Idaho Economic Indicators2016-2018

Wes Jost

Regional Director

Email: [email protected]

Phone: 208-501-7491

Zions Bank, A Division of ZB, N.A. Member FDIC.

Content is offered for informational purposes only and should not be construed as tax, legal, financial or business advice. Please contact a professional about your specific needs and advice. Content may contain trademarks or trade names owned by parties who are not affiliated

with ZB, N.A. Use of such marks does not imply any sponsorship by or affiliation with third parties, and ZB, N.A. does not claim any ownership of or make representations about products and services offered under or associated with such marks.

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Idahopower.com/business

Office & Industrial UpdatePresented by Karena Gilbert

Sales | Leasing | Property Management

THE 10

HOTTEST TRAVEL DESTINATIONS

OF 2017

OFFICE MARKET: MAJOR PROJECTS

DOWNTOWN BOISE

CITY CENTER PLAZA - 248,000 SF

SIMPLOT HEADQUARTERS - 364,000 SF

PIONEER CROSSING - 120,000 SF (COMING SOON)

TEN MILE INTERCHANGE - MERIDIAN

$19.50

$16.95

14.63%

9.84%

WHO’S MOVING?

· NEW TO MARKET – 14 companies totaling 51,000 SF

· MOVING WITHIN THE MARKET – 67 companies totaling 444,000 SF

· EXPANSION – 45 businesses totaling 376,000 SF.

· LOCAL STARTUPS

OFFICE MARKET:

CURRENT TRENDS

· OPEN FLOOR PLAN

· WORK STATIONS

· BREAK AREAS

· COLLABORATION

· REDUCED SF PER PERSON

OFFICE MARKET:

CONVERSATIONS

· CONSTRUCTION COSTS

· LONGER LEASE TERMS

· EMPLOYEE RETENTION

· PARKING

INDUSTRIAL MARKET

1,164,000 SF - UP FROM 665,000 SF IN 2015

INDUSTRIAL MARKET:

NOTABLE TRASACTIONS

· GAYLE MANUFACTURING – 166,200 SF CALDWELL

· SCENTSY – 177,700 SF MERIDIAN

· FORAGE GENETICS – 101,800 SF NAMPA

· PATRICK INDUSTRIES – 117,500 BOISE

0

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01

5

3/1

/20

16

6/1

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16

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16

12

/1/2

01

6

US Office Volume ($) US Industrial Volume ($) US Retail Volume ($) US Apartment Volume ($)

0

1E+11

2E+11

3E+11

4E+11

5E+11

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3/1

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7

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8

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12

/1/2

00

9

3/1

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10

6/1

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10

9/1

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10

12

/1/2

01

0

3/1

/20

11

6/1

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11

9/1

/20

11

12

/1/2

01

1

3/1

/20

12

6/1

/20

12

9/1

/20

12

12

/1/2

01

2

3/1

/20

13

6/1

/20

13

9/1

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13

12

/1/2

01

3

3/1

/20

14

6/1

/20

14

9/1

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14

12

/1/2

01

4

3/1

/20

15

6/1

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15

9/1

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12

/1/2

01

5

3/1

/20

16

6/1

/20

16

9/1

/20

16

12

/1/2

01

6

US Office Volume ($) US Industrial Volume ($) US Retail Volume ($) US Apartment Volume ($)

National Sales Volume

300 B

200 B

500 B

100 B

400 B

600 B

Volume displayed as 12 Month Totals. Includes property or portfolio sales $2.5 million or greater.

0

2E+10

4E+10

6E+10

8E+10

1E+11

1.2E+11

1.4E+11

3/1

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02

7/1

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02

11

/1/2

00

2

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13

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15

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15

11

/1/2

01

5

3/1

/20

16

7/1

/20

16

11

/1/2

01

6

RCA - West Office Volume ($)

0

2E+10

4E+10

6E+10

8E+10

1E+11

1.2E+11

1.4E+11

3/1

/20

02

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11

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6

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07

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8

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7/1

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09

11

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00

9

3/1

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10

7/1

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10

11

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01

0

3/1

/20

11

7/1

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11

11

/1/2

01

1

3/1

/20

12

7/1

/20

12

11

/1/2

01

2

3/1

/20

13

7/1

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13

11

/1/2

01

3

3/1

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14

7/1

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14

11

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01

4

3/1

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15

11

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5

3/1

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16

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16

11

/1/2

01

6

RCA - West Office Volume ($)

RCA - West Industrial Volume ($)

RCA - West Retail Volume ($)

RCA - West Apartment Volume ($)

Regional Sales Volume

Volume displayed as 12 Month Totals. Includes property or portfolio sales $2.5 million or greater.

80 B

120 B

60 B

100 B

40 B

140 B

20 B

National Cap Rates

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

10.00%

2001 2004 2006 2009 2012 2014 2017 2020

US Office Cap Rate

US Industrial Cap Rate

US Retail Cap Rate

US Apartment Cap Rate

Regional Cap Rates

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

10.00%

2001 2004 2006 2009 2012 2014 2017 2020

RCA - West Office Cap Rate

RCA - West Industrial Cap Rate

RCA - West Retail Cap Rate

RCA - West Apartment Cap Rate

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CMBS Issuance

mill

ion

s

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Treasury Rates – 20 Yr History%

1.50

1.70

1.90

2.10

2.30

2.50

2.70

10-17 10-24 10-31 11-07 11-14 11-21 11-28 12-05 12-12 12-19 12-26 01-02 01-09 01-16 01-23 01-30 02-06

10 Yr Treasury-Q4 2016

2016 Election

2006 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2017 Adj.

Cap Rate 7.00% 6.25% 6.25% 6.50%

Price $757,143 $848,000 $848,000 $815,500

Cash Down $227,143 $254,400 $254,400 $244,650

10 Yr Treasury Rate 4.60% 1.80% 2.50% 2.50%

Loan Rate 6.60% 4.00% 4.50% 4.50%

PMT ($41,008) ($34,328) ($36,442) ($35,045)

Cash Flow $11,992.34 $18,672.05 $16,557.98 $17,954.64

Cash on Cash 5.28% 7.34% 6.51% 7.34%

% Change in Return -11.32%

% Change in Price -3.83%

Change in Cap Rate 0.25%

Lease Term 10 yr NNN

NOI $53,000

LTV 70%

Amortization 30

Effect of Rates on ReturnTaco Time – Ontario, Ore

2006 2016

Cap Rate 7.00% 6.25%

Price $757,143 $848,000


2016 Q1 2017

Cap Rate 6.25% 6.25%

Price $848,000 $848,000

Cash Down $254,400 $254,400

10 Yr Treasury Rate 1.80% 2.50%

Loan Rate 4.00% 4.50%

PMT ($34,328) ($36,442)

Cash Flow $18,672 $16,558

Cash on Cash 7.34% 6.51%

% Change in Return -11.32%

% Change in Price

Change in Cap Rate

Q1 2017 Q1 2017 Adj.

Cap Rate 6.25% 6.5%

Price $848,000 $815,500

Cash on Cash 7.34% 7.34%


Deal Size Buyer Seller Price Change Cap Rate Change

$10-12m Market Market 3.50% -0.25%

$16-18m Market Market 4.50% -0.30%

$25-28m Market Market 2.94% -0.20%

$54-56m 1031 Market 1% -0.10%

$20-24m 1031 Off-Market 0% 0%

$22-24m 1031 Off-Market NO DEAL

$150-170m

3.65% -0.25%

Apartment Negotiation in Q4 2016

Price/Cap Effect - 10 year treasury movement from 1.8% to 2.5%

What to Watch For with New Political Platform

Economic Platform Potential Effect Opportunities

› Stimulus (tax cut, infrastructure)

› Immigration

› (+) Economic gains (-) higher interest rates (-) inflation

› (-) labor costs increase (-) labor shortage (-) slower GDP growth

Real Estate as Inflation Hedge

› Value-add Opportunities (Good story behind NOI growth)

› Safe yield transactions (NNN, Long-term)

RETAILLeAnn Hume, CCIM, CLS

Cushman & Wakefield Pacific Commercial Realty Advisors

Dollar Stores Sector1 new store every 4.5 hours over last 5 years

Restaurant SectorSince 2010 – 50% of retail growth has been in this sectorPrior to 2010 it was about 1/3 of retail growth

Discounters – Dollar Tree

Food: Grocery, Fast Food, QSR – Quick Service Restaurants


Right Sizing

Relocation

Acquisition

Underperformance

Beat out by competition

E-Commerce Competition

Cushman & Wakefield | Pacific Commercial Realty Advisors

$440 Billion e-commerce


2017

Retail Transactions

$4 Trillion

Amazon added 35 million sq. ft of eCommerce fulfillment space over last 6 years

Amazon can now deliver NEXT DAY to over 90% of the continental US



Baby Boomers 1946-1964 74 Million $1.36 Trillion

Generation Born Between Population Buying Power

Generation X 1965-1980 66 Million $125 Billion

Generation Y - Millennials 1981-1996 90 Million $200 Billion

Generation Z 1997-2003 60 Million $44 Billion

By 2020, those Born between 1997-2020 will equal 2.6 Billion people

Who do retailers need to market to?


Who will save brick and mortar retailers?

• 67% of Generation Z shop Brick & Mortar

• Retailers who are succeeding, offer BOTH

• 70% of Holiday Sales occurred with retailers who offered BOTH online and brick and mortar

• 9/100 Returns – 70-80% of In Store Returns lead to an additional purchase

• 25% of Holiday Sales were done by Amazon

Active Retailers


Video Highlight: City of Twin Falls

Travis Rothweiler

C I T Y O F T W I N FA L L S

c re at i n g s u sta i n e d exc e l l e n c e

O U R PA S T

O U R J O U R N E Y

We created a strategic plan…

We created data driven solutions…We created community partnerships…We broke down barriers…

• W E G OT

25%$167 Million 3.1%$1 Billion130%

Hamdi Ulukaya, Founder, President and CEO of Chobani“Building the largest yogurt manufacturing plant in the world and expanding it three years later is a really proud moment for us and an example of how right it was to pick Twin Falls, Idaho as our second home.”

Kevin Cleary, CEO of Clif Bar & Company“When we started working with the city, we immediately recognized a shared set of values that served as a foundation for this partnership. We look forward to building on this partnership and to bringing our Five Aspirations business model to Twin Falls.”

What our Partners say…

Eastern Idaho UpdatePresented by Brent Wilson

Thornton Oliver Keller


Idaho Falls/Pocatello MSA Population: 389,800

Unemployment Rate: 3.2%

Top Employers:

Battelle Energy Alliance (3,800)

CH2M-WG Idaho LLC (1,700)

Eastern Idaho Regional Medical Center (1,300)

Melaleuca (1,300)

Basic American Foods (1,000)

Demographic overview

Research:

Idaho National Laboratory

Battelle Energy Alliance

Colleges & Universities:

BYU-Idaho

Eastern Idaho Technical College

Idaho State University

Research & Education

Small Modular Reactor

Project –

$2.8 Billion

U.S. Naval Reactors

Facility / Spent Nuclear

Fuels Project –

$1.65 Billion

Idaho National LaboratoryProjects in the Pipeline

Office Market: 3,900,000 square feetMulti-Tenant Vacancy: 13.3%

Oppenheimer Development Corporation’s

New Downtown Idaho Falls Project

INL’s Idaho Falls Willow Creek Campus

Two New Cyber-Security Buildings

Planned

$85 Million Project Value

Retail Market: 4,700,000 square feetTotal Vacancy: 6.6%

Retail Market: 4,700,000 square feetTotal Vacancy: 6.6%

Sandcreek Commons – 300,000 s.f.

Ball Ventures / Woodbury Corp.

Ammon, ID

Industrial Market: 4,900,000 square feetMulti-Tenant Vacancy: 8.7%

Industrial Market: 4,900,000 square feetMultitenant Vacancy: 8.7%

New Warner Truck Centers Facility

I-15 Exit 113, Bonneville County

Commercial Development Stimulates Our Economy

Tommy Ahlquist

Keynote Speaker

Mr. Chris Lee“The Future Has Arrived”

• • •

“A Time of Challenges, Opportunities and Surprises”

• • •

“Where we are in the Real Estate Cycle…When will this Cycle End?

Greeting and President’s Message

2017 BOMA Idaho Commercial Real Estate Symposium Slideshow

Business

Transcript of 2017 BOMA Idaho Commercial Real Estate Symposium Slideshow