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Consumer Sentiment and Price

Expectations in Virginia

Alice Louise KassensInstitute for Policy and Opinion Research

Roanoke College

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Released by the Roanoke College Institute for Opinion and Policy Research (IPOR)

Consumer sentiment (similar to the University of Michigan index) began November 2011; Price expectations in February 2012 Call center, ~600 completes, quarterly release

New survey of Virginia CEOs this year (preliminary results) Mail and electronic, biennial?, N=310 (11.4% response rate)

The indexes

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Consumer Sentiment

Would you say that you and your family living there are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?

Now looking ahead: do you think that a year from now you and your family living there will be better off financially, worse off, or just about the same as now?

Now, turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, would you say at the present time that business conditions are better off, worse off, or just about the same as they were a year ago?

Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely--that the country as a whole will have continuous good times during the next five years or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression or what?

About big things people buy for their homes - such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or a bad time for people to buy major household items?

Survey questions

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Price Expectations

During the next year, do you think that prices in general will go down, stay where they are now, or go up?

What about the outlook for prices over the next five to ten years? Do you think prices will be higher, about the same, or lower five to ten years from

Survey questions

Probing questions included to clarify responses*

Add additional questions as topics arise

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CEO Survey

As you think about the current business or economic conditions in Virginia as compared to six months ago, would you say they are considerably better, a little better, about the same, a little worse, or considerably worse?

Looking forward from today through next year, that is, the entire 2016 year, how would you describe your expectations for the economy in Virginia?

Now thinking specifically about your industry, how would you describe the current business or economic conditions in Virginia as compared with six months ago?

And looking forward from today through next year, how would you describe your expectations for your industry here in Virginia?

Survey questions

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Virginia Index of Consumer Sentiment (VAICS) Feb. 2016

Households more optimistic about

the future, especially overall

economy

Negative outweigh positive outlook

on business today vs. year ago

VAICS for February is 87.4

Continue retreat started Q42015,

but above lifetime average

VAICC = 97.3, VAICE = 81.0

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

Positive Negative Positive Negative Positive Negative Positive Negative Positive Negative

Year ago Next year Business now Big item Future economy

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VAICC = 97.3, up 2 points since November

Of those reporting being better off financially today compared to a year ago, 79-percent attribute the improvement to higher income.

Thirty-seven percent of Virginians believe that business conditions are worse today than a year ago, a ten-point reduction since November; twenty-eight percent report business conditions have improved.

Nation is more positive about current conditions than Virginians (ICC=106.8); US-Virginia gap has persisted since 2013 (sequestration?)

VAICC February 2016

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VAICE = 81.0, down 4 points since November

In line with national number of 81.9

More believe the economy will prosper in the next 5-10 years than believe it will contract, but the gap is closing

34% believe household finances will improve in 2016, up slightly from last quarter; 10% believe household finances will worsen

Improved/anticipated improved wages likely source of optimism

VAICE February 2016

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Virginia vs. the US

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VAICS by region (February 2016)

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VA inflation expectations

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Additional questions

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CEO Survey (preliminary)

As you think about the current business or economic conditions in

Virginia as compared to six months ago, would you say they are

considerably better, a little better, about the same, a little worse, or

considerably worse?

Looking forward from today through next year, that is, the entire 2016

year, how would you describe your expectations for the economy in

Virginia?

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CEO Survey (preliminary)

Now thinking specifically about your industry, how would you

describe the current business or economic conditions in Virginia as

compared with six months ago?

And looking forward from today through the next year, how would you

describe your expectations for your industry here in Virginia?

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CEO Survey (preliminary)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Engineering & Construction

Food & Beverage

Financial

Manufacturing

Retail

Service

Wholesale & Distribution

Future Current Overall

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Next release: May 2016

kassens@roanoke.edu(540) 375-2428