2016 Political Economy

Why it matters for you!

What we will cover today

Current US economic situation

Intl. economic situation

2016 Pres. Race

The 10yr Debt Time Bomb

Roots of the Problem

1930s: Great Depression

1960s: Heller’s full employment budget

Bush tax cuts n Medicare expansion, Great Recession,

Obama stimulus spending n ACA

What the Fed watches

Q1 Real Time GDP=0.3%

CA/SD Freddie Mac MiMi Rating

2yr Oil and Nat Gas

5yr US Dollar Index

US 2yr Treasury Yield

German 2yr BKO Yield

Japan 2yr JGB Yield

Chinese Stock Market

Econ problem we want to solve

WHERE CAN WE GET GROWTH?

Free Trade=lower tariffs

Reg. Relief=reduced costs

Tax reform=capital w/incentives

Infrastructure=efficiency

Latest on 2016 Republicans

TRUMP PLAN

Cut Corp Tax to 15%

Limit Pass Thru 15%

1x 10% Repat Tax

Ag TPP and NAFTAImpose tariffs on imported goods

Big Drop in InterestDeductibility

CRUZ PLANEliminate Corp. Tax

Flat Business Tax 16%

1x 10% Repat Tax, Drops Int. Tax

Full Expensing

Drops Interest Deductibility

REPUBLICAN PLANS HELP/HURT

Help: big tech & big pharma

Hurt: debt heavy balance sheets

Help: industrials & manufacturers

Hurt/Help: free trade?

Latest on 2016 Democrats

CLINTON PLANNo Change Corp

or Pass Thru

New Tax Credits forProfit Sharing andApprenticeships

Restart BABs

?Free Trade?

Taxes HC Benefits

Big Change to Cap Gains

Tax Foundation

CLINTON’S NEW SPENDING

$275B Infrastructure Plan

Fix Roads and Bridges

National Freight Inv. Program

$25B Infrastructure Bank

DEMOCRAT PLANS HELP/HURT

Help: ACA managed care, hospitals, Medicaid HMOs

Hurt: raises taxes on top earners

Help: construction, engineering firms

Help: muni bonds

COMING INTO FOCUS?

WHAT 2016 MEANS FOR YOU

Democrats: no big biz tax plans, large infrastructure plans,

build on current regulations,ag free trade

Republicans: tax cut plans,reduce regulations, full expensing,

mixed on free trade

Don’t Forget The Senate!

NVCO

Ds at Risk

ILWINHFLOHPANCMO

Rs at Risk

Senate 2016 Races: 24Rs n 10Ds in play

BEST NEWS IN A LONG TIME?

2016 Congress To Dos

Tax n Reg Reform

HC Reform

Entitlement Reform

National Security Reform

Constitution Reform

Wrap up….