2016 pre-Thanksgiving retail pulse survey: What will retailers be thankful for this year?

2016 pre-Thanksgiving pulse surveyAn update on the holiday season

2016 Pre-Thanksgiving pulse surveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 2

Executive Summary

• Midway through the holiday season, most shoppers are bullish on spending. Eighty five percent forecast they will spend the same or more than they predicted at the outset of the season.

• Four in 10 holiday shoppers have not yet started their holiday shopping, and most are not very far down their lists. Eighty percent of holiday gift spending is expected to happen over the remaining weeks of the season.

• Three quarters plan to shop during the upcoming holiday weekend, with a fairly even mix of online versus offline shopping across the period.

• Shoppers plan to spend more this holiday weekend than they intended last year, and average spend is estimated at $400.

• Thanksgiving Day will be among the lightest shopping days of the holiday weekend. Still, roughly 1 in 5 plan to shop on Thanksgiving, with online shopping slightly outpacing in-store.

• A significant portion of shoppers plan to be out on Black Friday, but online shopping almost rivals that in store, as most consumers are convinced they will find similar deals in both channels.

• Activity between Saturday and Cyber Monday will remain relatively strong, particularly in-store shopping on Saturday, which will be driven in part by support for local businesses (42%).

• Cyber Monday will mark the peak for online holiday shopping (74%).


Contents

Holiday spending: A mid-season check up4

Peak shopping days: Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday 7

Research: How holiday shoppers are gathering information 17


Holiday spending: A mid-season check up


Midway through the holiday season, most shoppers are bullish on spending. Almost one-third (32%) plan to spend more than they originally planned, and this extra spending will most often be directed toward gifts.

Expect to spend more, 32%

Expect to spend less, 15%

Expect to spend the

same, 54%

How do your holiday spending plans compare to just a month or two ago?

On what will shoppers spend more?

Gifts Entertaining at home

Gift cards/gift certificates

Socializing away from

home

Non-gift clothing for yourself or

family

Home/holiday furnishings

83%

42% 41% 36%27% 24%

40% 35% 30% 26% 22%

Why do they plan to spend less?(Among 15% who plan to spend less)

85%

“How do your overall holiday spending plans compare to just a month or two ago?” N=1223“On which of the following holiday purchases do you believe you will spend more?” n= 385“What are the reasons why you plan to spend less?” n= 179


Four in 10 holiday shoppers have not yet started their holiday shopping, and most are not very far down their lists. Eighty percent of holiday gift spending is expected to happen over the remaining weeks of the season.

1-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-50% >50%

35%

13% 14%18%

21%

% of shopping completed(Among shoppers who have started)

80% of gift spending is yet to come

40% shoppers have not started their holiday shopping

“How much of your holiday gift spending have you completed to date for the December holidays?”


Peak shopping days: Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday


Three quarters plan to shop during the upcoming holiday weekend, with a fairly even mix of online versus offline shopping.

“Do you expect to do any shopping for the December holiday(s) either online or in stores over the Thanksgiving period – including Thanksgiving Thursday through the following Monday?”

Plan to shop during Thanksgiving weekend (Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday)

76%Yes

No

76%

84% plan to shopin store

87% plan to shoponline

Among shoppers who plan to shop…(Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday)


Shoppers plan to spend more this holiday weekend than they intended last year, and average spend is estimated at $400. Online spending is expected to outpace in-store spending slightly over the course of the five day period.

Online/offline spending during Thanksgiving weekend

Online In-Store Catalogue

51%46%

3%

“Percentage of your spending during the Thanksgiving weekend - channel wise” n= 926

$400 (+31 vs 2015)Average planned spending

(Thanksgiving Thursday through Cyber Monday)

$205$185

$10

2016 Pre-Thanksgiving pulse surveyCopyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 10“On what days do you expect to shop in stores?” n= 778; “On what days do you expect to shop online?” n= 808

Shopping participation across online and in-store channels will ebb and flow throughout the Thanksgiving weekend, peaking on Black Friday and rising to near Black Friday levels on Cyber Monday.

Thanksgiving Black Friday Saturday Sunday Cyber Monday0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

37%

79%

59%

42%

71%

Plan to shop online or in store(Among 76% shopping throughout Thanksgiving weekend)


Do not want to miss the best deals

Enjoy shopping with family and friends

Part of my Thanksgiving ritual

After Thanksgiving celebration, it's something/somewhere to do/go

To avoid the crowds or the experience of Black Friday

69%

39%

32%

25%

21%

Why shoppers plan to shop in store on Thanksgiving Thursday(Among 22% shopping in stores on Thanksgiving Day)

“On what days do you expect to shop in stores/Online?” n=778/807“Why will you be shopping in stores on Thanksgiving Thursday?” n= 173“Using a scale of 1 through 5, where 1 means you “Strongly disagree” and 5 means you “Strongly agree”, please state how much you agree with the following:”

Thanksgiving Day will be among the lightest shopping days of the holiday weekend. Still, roughly 1 in 5 plan to shop on Thanksgiving, with online shopping slightly outpacing in-store. Thanksgiving Day shopping is largely driven by deals.

Thanksgiving Day Shopping

22% In-Store Vs. 31%

Online(Among in-store weekend shoppers) (Among online weekend shoppers)


“On what days do you expect to shop in stores/Online?” n=778/807“Why will you be shopping in stores on Thanksgiving Thursday?” n= 173“Using a scale of 1 through 5, where 1 means you “Strongly disagree” and 5 means you “Strongly agree”, please state how much you agree with the following:”

What time do you expect to go to the store?(Among 22% shopping in stores on Thanksgiving Day)

Sentiment around shopping on Thanksgiving Day is largely negative, with 7 in 10 disagreeing with stores being open. The majority of Thanksgiving Day shoppers plan to visit stores in the late afternoon and evening, with a spike at 6pm.

Attitudes toward shopping on Thanksgiving(Among all shoppers)

I won’t be motivated to shop on Thanksgiving Day this year because it’s an important holiday to spend with family and friends

I disagree with stores being open on Thanksgiving

I will wait to shop with their preferred retailer(s) if they aren’t open

I feel more loyal to retailers who close on Thanksgiving

I feel loyal to retailers that are open on Thursday and allow them to shop

69%

67%

42%

23%

14%

Thanksgiving Day Shopping



Unsure

11 PM or later

07:00 to 10 PM

06:00 PM

03:00 to 05:00 PM

Before 3 PM

9%

4%

21%

25%

24%

16%

Prime Time 70%


Take advantage of best sales or deals of the season

Enjoy shopping with family and friends

Overall excitement of the day

Part of my Black Friday ritual

Store shopping is preferred over online

86%

28%

27%

25%

21%

Why shoppers plan to shop in store on Black Friday(Among 69% shopping in stores on Friday)

“On what days do you expect to shop in stores/Online?” n=778/807“Why will you be shopping in stores on Black Friday?” n= 535“Using a scale of 1 through 5, where 1 means you “Strongly disagree” and 5 means you “Strongly agree”, please state how much you agree with the following:”

A significant portion of shoppers plan to be out on Black Friday, but online shopping almost rivals that in store. The overwhelming majority of shoppers believe retailers offer comparable deals both online and in store.

Black Friday Shopping



71% Often find retailers offer

comparable deals online and in stores during the

Thanksgiving weekend


Unsure

10 AM or later

07:00 to 09:00 AM

06:00 AM

01:00 to 05:00 AM

Midnight

16%

0%

19%

24%

12%

15%

14%

“On what days do you expect to shop in stores/Online?” n=778/807“Why will you be shopping in stores on Black Friday?” n= 535“Using a scale of 1 through 5, where 1 means you “Strongly disagree” and 5 means you “Strongly agree”, please state how much you agree with the following:”

When shoppers plan to shop on Black Friday(Among 69% shopping in stores on Black Friday)

Half of shoppers think they can find the best deals of the season on Black Friday. Those who go in store (versus shopping online) have a mix of strategies – some hit the stores at midnight while the majority head out first thing in the morning.

Is this up/flat/down to last year?Black Friday Shopping



Attitudes toward shopping on Black Friday(Among all shoppers)

I plan to take advantage of early Black Friday deals online

The best deals of the season are on Black Friday

The Black Friday deals are not as good as they used to be

Black Friday deals are better than they used to be

I expect retailers will offer better deals online than in the store on Black Friday

56%

49%

37%

27%

25%

55%


“On what days do you expect to shop in stores/Online?” n=778/807“Using a scale of 1 through 5, where 1 means you “Strongly disagree” and 5 means you “Strongly agree”, please state how much you agree with the following:”

Activity between Saturday and Cyber Monday will remain relatively strong, particularly in-store shopping on Saturday, which will be driven in part by support for local businesses. Cyber Monday will mark the peak for online shopping.

Saturday Shopping 53%

In-Store Vs. 36% Online

(Among in-store weekend shoppers) (Among online weekend shoppers)

42% plan to shop on Saturday in support of local businesses

Sunday Shopping 32%



Cyber Monday Shopping 42%




Cyber Monday

Sunday

Saturday

Black Friday

Thanksgiving Day

42%

32%

53%

69%

22%

Cyber Monday

Sunday

Saturday

Black Friday

Thanksgiving Day

74%

30%

36%

55%

31%

84% plan to shopin store

87% plan to shoponline

29% like to connect to retailer’s Wi-Fi while shopping in store

“On what days do you expect to shop in stores?” n= 778; “On what days do you expect to shop online?” n= 808“Using a scale of 1 through 5, where 1 means you “Strongly disagree” and 5 means you “Strongly agree”, please state how much you agree with the following”

Online and in-store shopping will vie for importance this holiday weekend. Cyber Monday is the only day when online shopping is expected to take a commanding lead over in-store shopping.


55% Plan to complete online holiday purchases early this year to avoid shipping delays

28% Will likely purchase earlier in the holiday season because of concerns that merchandise may run out

40% Are likely to purchase later in the holiday season because they anticipate better promotions

“Using a scale of 1 through 5, where 1 means you “Strongly disagree” and 5 means you “Strongly agree”, please state how much you agree with the following:”Percent of respondents who agree/strongly agree

Shoppers are mixed on the value of shopping earlier versus later in the season, with a small majority citing potential shipping delays as a compelling reason to shop early


Research:How holiday shoppers are gathering information


Where shoppers expect to obtain information about Thanksgiving weekend

Websites dedicated to featuring Black Friday deals

Retailer websites

Newspapers

Mailers/flyers

Email

TV or radio commercials

Social media sites

In retailers' stores

Mobile device

Other websites

58%

57%

36%

34%

31%

26%

20%

18%

17%

11%

Digital medium

Traditional medium

“Where do you expect to obtain information about Thanksgiving weekend?” n= 926

The Internet is the go-to source for information about Thanksgiving weekend shopping, but print media will still play a role in the season.


Time spent researching deals

0 hours

Less than 1 hour

1-2 hours

3-5 hours

More than 5 hours

3%

28%

51%

14%

5%

+15 vs 2015

69%

“How much time would you say you spend researching on these deals (before visiting retailer or retail website, or, before making a purchase)?” n= 926“Do you expect to shop together with other family members or friends in stores over the Thanksgiving period?” n= 778“How many different (physical) retail stores are you planning on visiting in person over the Thanksgiving period?” n=778

4.2 — average number of venues consumers expect to shop

62% — of in-store shoppers plan to go with their family or friends

Shoppers will invest a significant amount of time into researching deals before the holiday weekend. Nearly 7 in 10 plan to spend an hour or more researching before making a purchase.


Webrooming is expected to be more popular than showrooming during the Thanksgiving shopping weekend.

Showrooming

… first go to a store to look for an item, then search online for the best price, and

then purchase online

44%

Webrooming

… first look at items online, then go to a store to see the item, then

make purchase at store

63%

Omni-channel shopping behavior

“I plan to research online before shopping in stores on the Thanksgiving weekend” n=926“I plan to research products in the store before buying them online over the Thanksgiving weekend” n=926

Percent of respondents who agree/strongly agree


About the survey

This survey was commissioned by Deloitte and conducted online by an independent research company between November 9 – 14, 2016.

It polled a national sample of 1,223 adults (age 18+) who plan to shop during the holiday season and has a margin of error for the entire sample of plus or minus three percentage points.

As used in this document, “Deloitte” refers to Deloitte LLP. Please see www.deloitte.com/us/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries. Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting.

http://www.deloitte.com/us/about

2016 pre-Thanksgiving retail pulse survey: What will retailers be thankful for this year?

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