2016 Ohio Job Outlook
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Ohio Job Outlook to 2016
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Ohio Job Outlook to 2016
• Economic growth• Labor force growth• Industry employment• Occupational employment
2
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3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
Employed UnemployedMillions
Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information
3
State of Ohio Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment
Trends, 1980-2007
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U.S. and Ohio Unemployment Rates
The unemployment rate declined as the economic expansion continued through 2000.
Ohio’s unemployment rate climbed above the national rate after that.
In 2007, Ohio’s rate was one percentage point higher than the U.S.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
U.S. Ohio
4
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Gross Domestic Product for Ohio
• Ohio’s value of Gross Domestic Product ranks seventh in the U.S.
• Ohio accounts for 3.4 percent of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1986 1996 2006
Billions of current dollars
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of CommerceOhio Department of Development, Office of Strategic Research
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State of Ohio Real Personal Income
• Ohioans’ personal incomes expected to rise.
• Total Ohio income as a share of national income is projected to decline.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1991 1996 2001 2006 2016
0
1
2
3
4
5Ohio Real IncomePercent of U.S
Billions ($2000) Percent of U.S.
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Accounts Data, Local Area Personal Income, U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration; Global Insight
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State of Ohio Population
• Ohio’s Population has been increasing for the past decade.
• But the U.S. population has been increasing at a faster rate.
• Ohio’s share of U.S. population is expected to continue to decline.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1996 2001 2006 2016
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Ohio Population Share of U.S.
Millions Percent of U.S.
Sources: Ohio Department of DevelopmentU.S. Bureau of the Census
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Ohio Job Outlook to 2016
• Economic growth• Labor force growth• Industry employment• Occupational employment
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Population and Labor Force Continue to Grow
11.2 11.5 11.6
8.5 8.9 9.2
5.6 6.0 6.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Population Working AgePopulation
Labor Force
Millions1996 2006 2016
Sources: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services, Bureau of Labor Market Information.
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Ohio’s Labor ForceParticipation Rates to Increase
Among Women
66.3 67.2 66.7
74.7 73.1 71.8
58.661.7 61.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total Men Women
Percent1996 2006 2016
Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information
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Ohio’s Labor Force Increasing at a Slower Pace than its Workforce Population
4.45.8
3.62.8
0
3
6
9
12
1996-2006 2006-2016
Percent ChangeWorking Age Population Labor Force
Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information
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Age Distribution of Ohio’s
Labor Force is Changing
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 andOlder
Millions1996 2006 2016
Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information
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Ohio’s Labor Force Ages 55 and Older Grows as Baby
Boomers Age
-116
104
-13
-184
217
161
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and Older
Projected Change, 2006-2016 in Thousands
Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information
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Labor Force Growth will Continue for Workers 55
and Older
1.0 0.8
40.4
-12.0
-2.3
37.9
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1996-2006 2006-2016
16-24 25-54 55 and olderPercent Change
Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information
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Female Share of Ohio’s Labor Force
Increasing
46.1
47.8 47.9
40
42
44
46
48
50
Percent
1996 2006 2016
Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information 15
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Ohio Job Outlook to 2016
• Economic growth• Labor force growth• Industry employment• Occupational employment
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Employment Growth:
U.S. and Ohio• Ohio employment
growth is expected to be noticeably slower than the U.S. over the 2006-2016 period.
• This slower outlook reflects Ohio’s slow recovery from the last recession in 2001 and higher concentration of employment in manufacturing.
Percent Change
10.4
5.0
0
3
6
9
12
15
2006-2016
U.S. Ohio
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information 17
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Service-Providing Industries Continue to Lead
Employment Growth
1.12 1.00
4.344.74
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Goods-Producing Service-Providing
2006 2016Millions
Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information
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Ohio Goods-Producing Employment, 2006
and 2016
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Agriculture Mining Construction Manufacturing
Thousands 2006 2016
Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information
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Ohio Service-Providing Employment, 2006 and
2016
0
300
600
900
Trans. & Util. Trade Information FinancialActivities
Prof. &Business
Educ. &Health
Leisure &Hospitality
OtherServices
Government
Thousands 2006 2016
Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information
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Comparison of U.S. and Ohio Rates of Industry
Growth, 2006-2016
-14.5 -9.0
11.4 10.6
-10.6
-17.7
10.3
5.5
9.3 9.76.9
-2.7
14.4
8.5
23.3
15.4
26.0
21.7
14.3
9.7
13.59.8
6.1
2.1
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Natural
Resou
rces
Constru
ction
Manufac
turing
Wholes
ale &
Retail T
rade
Transp
ortat
ion & U
tilitie
s
Informati
on
Financia
l Acti
vities
Prof. &
Bus
iness S
ervice
Educati
on & Hea
lth Serv
Leisure
and H
ospita
lity
Other Serv
ices
Govern
ment
Projected Percent Change
U.S. Ohio
Ohio Department of Job and Family Services, Bureau of Labor Market Information 21Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Job Growth in Education & Health and Professional & Business
Services Sets the Pace
-140.8-7.0
-2.4
9.4
16.0
19.8
21.5
22.0
26.1
48.5
100.8165.7
-150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150
Education & Health Serv
Prof. & Business Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Financial Activities
Other Services
Construction
Transportation & Utilities
Government
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Information
Natural Resources
Manufacturing
Thousands
Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information
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Industries with Fastest Job Growth, 2006-2016
• 4 of the top 10 fastest growing industries are involved with health care. Demand for health care is increasing because of the growth of the older population.
Percent Change
56.6
56.3
46.4
34.0
33.3
31.3
30.1
28.8
27.0
74.3
0 20 40 60 80
Individual and family services
Mgmt & technical consulting service
Home health care services
Community care facilities-elderly
Activities related to real estate
Securities & contracts brokerage
Credtit intermediation
Compputer systems design
Spectator sports
Residential mental health facilities
Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information 23
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Private Sector Industries Adding the
Most New Jobs• Health services
will dominate the job growth picture.
• In the public sector, local government, except for education and hospitals will also account for a large number of new jobs.
Job Growth, 2006-2016, in Thousands
32.2
25.2
24.3
20.9
15.6
15.3
14.5
14.1
13.8
22.8
0 10 20 30 40
Hospitals
Individual and family services
Full-service restaurnats
Home health care services
Employment services
Offices of physicians
Mgmt. of companies & enterprises
Educational services
Religious organizations
Mgmt. & tech. consulting serv.
Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information 24
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Ohio Job Outlook to 2016
• Economic growth• Labor force growth• Industry employment• Occupational employment
25
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Service Occupations had the Most Jobs in
2006Thousands
917.7
613.3
597.2
556.7
453.2
246.1
230.2
14.8
1,081.01,131.9
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
Service
Professional & related
Office & admin support
Sales & related
Production
Mgmt., business & financial
Trans. & material moving
Construction & extraction
Installation, maint. & repair
Farming, fishing & forestry
Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information
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Employment Growth by Major Occupational
Group• Service and
professional & related workers will grow at the fastest rate.
• The decline in manufacturing has been slowing the demand for production workers.
-11.8
0.0
1.0
2.4
2.9
3.1
4.5
6.9
12.0
12.2
-16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16
Service
Professional & related
Construction & extraction
Mgmt., business & financial
Installation, maint. & repair
Office & admin. support
Sales & related
Transp. & materal moving
Farming, fishing & forestry
Production
Percent Change, 2006-2016
Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information 27
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Service and Professional Workers will Account for Almost 270,000 New Jobs
2.9
7.1
14.6
17.0
25.3
26.2
129.8
138.3
0 25 50 75 100 125 150
Service
Professional & related
Office & admin. support
Mgmt., business & financial
Construction & extraction
Sales & realted
Install., maint. & repair
Trans. & material moving
Thousands of Jobs, 2006-2016
Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information
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Occupational Job Growth in Ohio
• Health occupations will account for 27.4 percent of the net job growth.
• Service occupations, except health, will account for another 25.9 percent of job growth.
Educ., training &
library
Other
Mgmt, business &
finance
Construction & extraction
Sales
Community & social service
Office & admin
support
Service, exc. health
Computer & math
Health
Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information
29
Percent of New Jobs*
*Does not include the loss of over 70,000 production jobs.
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Health and Community & Social Service Occupations Dominate the
Fastest Growing Jobs
47.9
40.8
34.0
34.0
33.6
33.2
32.1
48.1
38.9
37.9
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0
Home health aides
Network systems & data communications analysts
Personal & home health aides
Computer software engineers, applications
Skin care specialists
Personal financial advisors
Substance abuse & behavioral dis. counselors
Social & human services assistants
Veterinary technologists & technicians
Medical assistants
Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information 30
Percent Change, 2006-2016
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Total Annual Job Openings0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Service
Professional & related
Office & admin. Support
Sales & related
Mgmt., business & financial
Production
Trans. & material moving
Construction & extraction
Installation, maint. & repair
Farming, fishing & forestry
Thousands
Replacement
Growth
Most Job Openings are Due to Replacement
Demands
• Employers replace workers who retire, die or leave the labor force for other reasons.
42.2
35.8
21.2
13.9
12.2
4.5
Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information
6.2
31
0.4
24.9
12.2
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Job Growth can be Viewed in Two
Ways• Large occupational
categories, such as cashiers, which are growing at slow or moderate rates, often provide many more job openings than small, fast-growing occupations, such as occupational therapist assistants.
• More than four out of every five job openings are expected because of net replacement needs.
Percent Change Annual Openings
Occupational therapist assistantsCashiers
31
13
109
6,600
Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information
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Occupations with the Most Job Openings
• An occupation with large employment will usually have many job openings.
• Even occupations with limited employment growth may have high demand because of replacement needs.
6.6
5.9
4.1
4.0
3.4
2.7
2.5
2.4
4.4
6.4
0 2 4 6 8
Cashiers
Waiters & waitresses
Retail salespersons
Registered Nurses
Laborers, freight, stock, mat. movers, hand
Customer service representatives
Comb. food prep. & serv., inc. fast food
Office clerks, general
Janitors & cleaners
Home health aides
Annual Job Openings, 2006-2016
Thousands
Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information 33
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Educational Attainment of Ohio Occupational Employment, 2006
Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information
34
High School
High School/ Some College
High School/Some College/College
Some College/ College
College
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Educational Attainment of Projected Employment
Change, 2006-2016
Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information
35
High School
High School/Some College
High School/ Some College/ College
Some College/ College
College
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Education will Play a Bigger Role in the Ohio
Workplace
2.4
2.6
4.8
10.8
13.3
0 3 6 9 12 15
High School
High School/Some College
High School/SomeCollege/College
Some College/College
College
Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services Bureau of Labor Market Information
Percent Change, 2006-2016
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Education Pays … U.S. Data
Less than a high-school diploma
High-school diploma
Some college, no degree
Associate degree
Bachelor’s degree
Master’s degree
Unemployment Rate in 2007 Median Weekly Earnings in 2007
Note: Year-round full-time workers 25 years and older Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
2.1
2.6
3.3
4.2
4.7
7.6 $409
$583
$653
$699
$937
$1,129
$1,370Professional degree
Doctoral degree
1.1
1.6 $1,421
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Ohio Job Outlook to 2016
For further information contact:Lew Horner Sandy NewmanWorkforce Research Chief Projections Coordinator(614) 466-9824 (614) 644-0632
Ohio Department of Job and Family Serviceshttp://jfs.ohio.gov/Office of Workforce Developmenthttp://jfs.ohio.gov/workforce/Bureau of Labor Market Informationhttp://ohiolmi.com/