2016 Business Leaders Outlook - J.P. Morgan · 4 | 2016 BUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK. A More Cautious...

2016Business Leaders

Outlook

KEY TAKEAWAY

This year’s results highlight a divergence in attitudes toward the global and local economies, with middle market executives showing more optimism closer to home.

Introduction

4 | 2016 BUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK

A More Cautious Outlook

From January 12 through 29, Commercial Banking conducted

its annual survey of nearly 1,400 middle market executives

to gauge their outlooks on the local, national and global

economies, as well as their perspectives on the current

regulatory environment and their business strategies for

the year ahead.

The time period in which respondents took this survey was

marked by turmoil in the equities, commodities and foreign

markets. This likely had an impact on the survey results.

While executives remained overwhelmingly positive about

the performance of their own companies in 2016, they

expressed more neutral and pessimistic sentiment in their

local, national and global outlooks. This year’s survey

recorded the highest level of global pessimism since it

began in 2011, underscoring the divergent outlook between

home and abroad.

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF OIL, CHINA AND EQUITIES

“There are likely a few main drivers behind this increase

in pessimism,” said Jim Glassman, Head Economist for

Commercial Banking. “One is the drama playing out in the oil

markets. It’s touching a lot of businesses in negative ways, and

while it may end up being positive for the overall economy—

eventually, consumers will start spending the savings they’ve

accumulated from lower prices at the gas pump—businesses

aren’t yet seeing the boon of low oil prices.

“The second driver is China and the reverberations businesses

are feeling—or are concerned about feeling—resulting from

the renminbi’s drop off last August.”

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0

Global economy

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

What is your outlook on the following for the next 12 months? Optimistic Neutral Pessimistic

Local economyNational economy Company performanceIndustry performance

49% 18% 14% 8%19%

41%

43%36%

22%

35%

10%

39%

50%

70%

46%

LOOK BACK When you see this icon, refer to this chart for more information.

CHASE AND J.P. MORGAN COMMERCIAL BANKING | 5

A third factor worth noting is the US stock market’s

performance in January. The Dow Jones industrial average

dropped around 10 percentage points in the first few weeks

of the new year, prompting worries that a new recession

might be on the horizon.

“These global concerns, which may be impacting executives’

outlooks, were shared by the Federal Reserve,” said Glassman.

“Since December, the Fed has scaled back expectations for

rate increases based on turmoil abroad. It’s worth noting,

however, that since that time, the stock market, oil market

and credit markets have all started to recover.”

“Timing’s everything,” said John Simmons, Head of Middle

Market Banking & Specialized Industries. “Had this survey

taken place last November, the results would likely look

very different. But the results are, I believe, an accurate

and relevant portrait of a specific point in time.

Executives are incrementally more cautious than they

were a year ago, but the backdrop remains generally

constructive. This is evident in the large percentage of

executives who have an optimistic outlook toward their

own companies.”

THE RIPPLE EFFECT

Every year, revenue and sales growth is a leading concern

for executives—but this year it rose by 11 percentage points,

to 74 percent.

“Revenue and sales growth is always a top concern,” said

Glassman, “but considering leaders’ more cautious outlook,

it’s no surprise that it’s even more of a concern this year. All

of their anxieties about business are expressed in concern

about revenue and sales; so if China and the global economy

are big concerns this year, that’s likely reflected in outlooks

about growth.

“The things that executives highlighted as growing

concerns—talent, labor costs, competition and consumer

confidence—are really concerns about costs and growth,”

he elaborated. “Executives are not as worried about

commodities, taxes, regulations, capital or credit as they have

been in the past—but concerns about managing costs, sales

growth and competition all seem to be peaking.”

What are the top three most significant challenges facing your business in the next 12 months?

2014 2015 2016

20% 40% 60% 80%0%

Revenue/ sales growth

Limited supply of talent

Managing labor costs

Regulatory requirements

US competition

Cost of commodities

Foreign competition

Lack of consumer

confidence

Availability of capital/credit

Taxes

74%

40%

31%

29%

19%

17%

13%

12%

10%

40%

“Executives are incrementally more cautious than they were

a year ago.”

JOHN SIMMONS, HEAD OF MIDDLE MARKET BANKING & SPECIALIZED INDUSTRIES


“Our world is increasingly interconnected,” said Morgan McGrath, Head of

International Banking for Commercial Banking. “If there’s bad news in China,

it will shortly be translated into bad news here. Twenty-five years ago, news of

a sharp downturn in Europe or Asia would have had a small ripple effect for

middle market companies in the US. But given how globally integrated many

of these companies have become, the impact of change overseas is immediately

felt at home.”

ACTIONS SPEAK LOUDER THAN WORDS

Given the change in sentiment, looking at overall responses may help put things

into perspective. Despite the rise in pessimism, 51 percent of survey respondents

are either optimistic or neutral about the global economy. The percentage of

executives reporting optimistic or neutral outlooks is even higher for the national

and local economies—82 percent and 86 percent, respectively.

Similarly, hiring and compensation plans are fairly consistent with last year’s

numbers, and expectations for global sales remain flat year over year. All of these

indicators imply that while the global economic environment may be causing

concern about what’s to come, it’s not necessarily impacting how businesses are

planning to operate in 2016.

Glassman offered a possible explanation for this disconnect. “Everything about

the consumer is turning positive, at least from a macro perspective,” he said.

“The economy is adding more jobs; hourly pay is increasing; hours worked are

up; and energy costs are down. The picture is pretty rosy for consumers, and

eventually, that will trickle down to businesses.”

Oil’s ImpactOil is a pervasive factor influencing many

businesses and touching a wide range of

outlooks for 2016—from global to local to

own-company performance.

The majority of middle market businesses

report a positive or neutral impact from

the decrease in oil prices. However, the

percentage of those citing a negative impact

increased significantly year over year

(up 10 percentage points from 2015).

Regional differences are clearly visible.

This is most evident in the South, which

reflects the higher concentration of

businesses tied to the oil and gas industry.

Forty-three percent of respondents in the

South report that oil had a negative impact on

their businesses—a significant increase from

last year’s 31 percent. Respondents in the

Midwest also conveyed a significant increase—

12 percentage points year over year—in

negative impact. The only region to report

an increase in positive impact was the

West, where 55 percent of middle market

companies—up 5 percentage points from

last year—claim a positive benefit from

lower oil prices.

How has the decrease in oil prices impacted your organization?

Positive No impact Negative

2015

47% 45%

34%26%

19%29%

2016

“The picture is pretty rosy for consumers, and eventually,

that will trickle down to businesses.”

JIM GLASSMAN, HEAD ECONOMIST, COMMERCIAL BANKING


The impact of oil prices by region Positive No impact Negative

2015 20152015

2015

2016 20162016

2016

50% 53%

38%

49%

38%

49%

38%

13% 14%

31%

26%

43%

10% 17%

55%18%

27%37% 33%

31%

25%

19%

41%

45%

EXECUTIVE OPINIONS ON OIL

A number of survey respondents indicated that oil was a major influence in the way they view the year ahead. Here’s what they

revealed about its impact on their revenue and growth plans.

“We have always been prepared for a one- to two-year downturn in the oil and gas industry. Staring down a five-year downturn

is scary.” — South Region, Transportation Industry

“The reduced price of oil has significantly reduced our sales to the oil and gas market and its support industries. The longer oil

prices remain low, the more the trickle down continues to expand.” — South Region, Wholesale Industry

“Lower oil prices are both good and bad for our business. They reduce our direct costs, but they also are a drag on the regional

energy economy, and this is spilling over into all industries. I expect minimal growth in 2016.” — South Region, Services Industry

“Lower energy costs are creating significant increases in profit and sales, [so] hopefully oil and natural gas prices can remain

relatively low.” — Midwest Region, Agriculture Industry


KEY TAKEAWAY

The declining global outlook is not stopping middle market executives from projecting increased sales overseas.


International Outlook


A Stable View of Overseas Business Activity

The pessimistic outlook toward the global economy SEE PAGE 4 is not translating into reduced overseas business

for middle market companies, which still need global markets

to access new customers, suppliers and materials—and to

stay close to their customers with global operations.

The percentage of businesses that are active internationally

increased slightly year over year, from 57 percent to

60 percent. Of that 60 percent, 36 percent buy products

overseas; 45 percent sell abroad; 26 percent have operations

outside the US; 19 percent have an international sales office;

and 10 percent have an international joint venture.

2014

2015

2016

58%

36%

33%

35%

45%

41%

41%

26%

24%

25%

19%

17%

10%

11%

42%

57%

43%

60%

40%

Do you have operations or sales outside the US? Yes No

Active internationally: Buy Sell Operations Sales office* Joint venture*

* Answer options added in 2015

100%

2014 2015 2016

40%

80%

20%

60%

0%

In the next five years, will your company’s overseas sales: Increase Decrease Remain the same

4%4%2%

26%25%22%

70%71%76%

activities in the next 12 months?* 2014 2015 2016

60% 80%40%20%0%

Access to new customers/markets

Access to suppliers/materials

etter serve domestic ustomers with global

operations

73%

38%

29%

* Note: Only the top three responses are shown

CONFIDENCE IN FUTURE GLOBAL SALES

Seventy percent of those doing business internationally

expect that their sales will increase over the next five years.

Seventy-three percent of businesses that are active

abroad reported that one of the main objectives for their

international activity is accessing new customers and

markets—a number that has remained consistent over the

past two years. Gaining access to suppliers and/or materials

is also a primary objective (38 percent), followed by the

objective to better serve domestic customers with global

operations (29 percent).

What are the main objectives for your international

Bc


US DOLLAR REACTIONS

Increasingly, middle market businesses report a positive

impact from the rising value of the US dollar. Twenty-three

percent of survey respondents (up from 16 percent in 2015)

reported a positive impact from the rising value of the

US dollar, likely due to the lower cost of imports, while

31 percent reported a negative impact, likely due to their

products being more expensive for overseas buyers.

The impact of the rising dollar can also be seen in

increased concern about currency risk. Among business

leaders who are active internationally, 56 percent feel that

currency risk is a top area of concern for their businesses,

up from 50 percent in 2015. This is followed by concern

about managing a global supply chain (33 percent) and

managing business rules, regulations and/or risk in

Asia-Pacific (26 percent).

100%

2015 2016

40%

80%

20%

60%

0%

How has the rising value of the US dollar impacted your organization? Positive No impact Negative

31% 31%

53% 46%

16%23%

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%0%

Currency risk

Managing a global

supply chain

Managing business rules/regulations/risk in Asia-Pacific

Future growth expectations for

emerging markets

Future growth expectations

for developed markets

Managing business rules/regulations/

risk in Europe

Managing business rules/regulations/

risk in Latin America

Managing business rules/regulations/risk in Middle East

and/or Africa

Which areas of international business are of most concern to you?

2014 2015 2016

Note: Question asked if respondents buy, sell or have operations, a sales office or a joint venture in foreign countries

56%

33%

26%

22%

22%

19%

17%

8%

China: The Long-Term View“The story of China’s slower growth has been dominating the news,”

said Morgan McGrath, Head of International Banking for Commercial

Banking, “and this has likely contributed to leaders’ worry about the

global outlook. China’s economy is now so large and so integral to

the world economy that its slowdown is impacting US companies at

home—and also in foreign markets that buy US exports. However, a

China that grows at a slower pace than it has in the past should have

been expected.

“In recent years, the Chinese economy has been undergoing

a structural transition as the nation matures from a

manufacturing engine into a service- and consumer-driven

economy,” he elaborated. “This transformation is one of the factors

that have led to an economic slowdown, with annual GDP growth

rates falling below 8 percent for the past few years—and it’s also

contributed to pressure on the renminbi to depreciate, particularly

against the US dollar.

“However, if China is successful in transitioning to an economy

powered by consumers and services, the nation will likely have

decades of excellent growth ahead. When you actually look at

China’s consumer sector, it’s doing quite well relative to others.

Their consumer sector is about one-third of their economy—by

comparison, the consumer sector in the US is two-thirds of the

economy—which means that growth opportunities will likely

remain strong there, even if the news is telling us otherwise.”


KEY TAKEAWAY

While executives expressed less concern about regulations overall, they’re taking specific steps to address rising healthcare costs.


National and Local Outlook


Caution Spills Into the National Economy

After increasing for the past two years, optimism

about the national economy dropped sharply in

2016, by 29 percentage points year over year. Additionally,

pessimism increased significantly—by 12 percentage

points year over year. However, a record number of people,

43 percent, reported a neutral outlook about the national

economy, a shift that appears to be in line with the general

uncertainty and caution about where the economy is headed.

SEE PAGE 4

Regionally, respondents in the South reported the least

optimism about the national economy (35 percent), while

respondents in the West reported the most optimism

(44 percent).

Among industries, those in transportation were the least

optimistic about the national economy (31 percent), while

those in services were the most optimistic (52 percent).

National economic outlook by region in 2016 Optimistic Neutral Pessimistic

44%

35% 39%

40% 41%

37%

41% 43%

43% 48%

19%

24% 18%

17% 11%

All middle market


National economic outlook by industry in 2016 Optimistic Neutral Pessimistic

Manufacturing

Wholesale

Services

Construction

Transportation

Retail

All middle market

20% 40% 60% 80% 100%0%

41%

52%

34%

37%

30%

34%

39%

42%

35%

49%

43%

49%

53%

43%

17%

13%

17%

20%

21%

13%

18%

A BIT BRIGHTER CLOSER TO HOME

Optimism about the local economy is higher

than it is for the global or national economies—

50 percent of survey respondents reported feeling

optimistic about the 2016 outlook for their local economies.

Respondents in the West (62 percent) reported the most

optimism about the local economy, while those in the

South (24 percent) had the highest pessimism, likely due

to turmoil in the oil market.

SEE PAGE 4

Local economic outlook by region in 2016 Optimistic Neutral Pessimistic

62%

48% 50%

47% 44%29%

28%36%

42% 46%

9%

24%14%

11% 10%

All middle market


EXECUTIVE OPINIONS ON THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL RACE

Many survey respondents called out the upcoming 2016

presidential election as a cause for concern—the responses

below touch on why election years may contribute to increased

economic uncertainty.

“Election years are always a

little more challenging, given

the focus on the problems in

the country by both the media

and candidates. This tends to

depress consumer confidence.”

— NORTHEAST REGION, WHOLESALE INDUSTRY

“With the economy struggling, business will still remain flat. [The] economy will not change until a new president is elected.”

— MIDWEST REGION, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY

“There are more headwinds accumulating than tailwinds. Election year uncertainty does not help.”

— WEST REGION, WHOLESALE INDUSTRY

LEARNING TO LIVE WITH REGULATIONS

Overall, there is little change from the prior year in terms of

how leaders feel regulations will impact their businesses in

2016. When asked about specific policies, leaders expressed

less concern this year about almost every regulatory issue

included in the survey, though the top three concerns remain

consistent year over year: healthcare (68 percent, flat year

over year), fiscal policy (48 percent, down 4 percentage

points year over year) and corporate taxes (40 percent,

down 7 percentage points year over year).

It makes sense that healthcare remains the top concern

for executives: 98 percent of executives reported that their

companies cover health insurance for employees, and nearly

all are dealing with rising costs. Forty-seven percent reported

that their organizations’ healthcare costs have increased

How concerned* are you about the following potential policy or regulatory threats to your business growth prospects? †

2014 2015 2016

Healthcare

Corporate taxes

Fiscal policy

20% 40% 60% 80%0%

68%

48%

40%

*Those who reported being extremely concerned or very concerned

†Note: Only the top three responses are shown

How much have healthcare costs increased at your organization over the past 12 months?

1–9% increase

0% increase

47%

5%

10+% increase

44%

I don’t know

4%


between 1 and 9 percent over the past year, and 44 percent

reported that their healthcare costs have increased by

10 percent or more.

In response to the higher costs of healthcare, businesses

plan to take a number of actions, including:

� Requiring employees to pay a greater percentage

of costs (51 percent)

� Imposing higher deductibles (49 percent)

� Providing wellness programs (31 percent)

� Offering medical savings accounts (25 percent)

In particular, the percentage of businesses that intend

to take action by offering wellness programs and medical

savings accounts surged year over year—up 15 and

10 percentage points, respectively, from 2015—indicating

that as they shift more responsibility to employees, they

are providing them with more tools to help manage costs.

In response to the costs and regulatory changes related to healthcare, what are the actions your company is planning to take in the next 12 months?

2014 2015 2016

Require employees

to pay greater percentage of costs

Provide wellness

programs

Offer medical savings

accounts

Impose higher deductibles

20% 40% 60%0%

51%

49%

31%

25%

THE CONSEQUENCES OF RISING RATES

This was the first year executives were asked how an increase

in interest rates would impact their organizations, and

50 percent said that higher rates would have no impact on

their businesses. Of those who cited a negative impact

(47 percent), most attributed it to the higher cost of capital.

“We have a few building projects we need to complete,” said

one survey respondent from the West’s wholesale industry.

“I have serious concerns [that] we are heading into a recession,

so I don’t want to spend capex dollars at this time—but I am

concerned that when the time comes … to spend the money,

borrowing rates might be more expensive.”

What impact will the recent Federal Reserve interest rate increase—and potential increases throughout 2016—have on your business?

Negative No impact Positive

All middle

marketNorth

east

MidwestSouth West

100%

40%

80%

20%

60%

0%

47%45% 45%

47%51%

50%

3%

54%

1%

52%

3%

50%

3%

44%

5%


KEY TAKEAWAY

A record number of business leaders reported being challenged by a limited supply of talent and the management of labor costs.


Company and Industry

Outlook


Rising Concern Around Revenue and Sales

SEE PAGE 4

Executives are overwhelmingly positive about the

outlook for their own businesses in the year ahead,

with 70 percent of respondents saying they are optimistic,

22 percent neutral and just 8 percent pessimistic. This

sentiment appears in line with their high expectations for

revenue/sales and profits: 86 percent of executives expect

their revenue/sales to increase or remain the same over the

next year, and 85 percent expect profits to increase or remain

the same.

Although the majority of executives were optimistic about

revenue/sales and profits, a growing number expressed lower

expectations. This year, more of them projected a decrease in

revenue/sales (14 percent in 2016 versus 8 percent in 2015)

and profits (15 percent in 2016 versus 12 percent in 2015). In

addition, slightly more forecasted lower capital expenditures

(21 percent in 2016 versus 18 percent in 2015) and credit needs

(15 percent in 2016 versus 12 percent in 2015). However, there

were noticeable differences in regional and industry responses.

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0

Revenue/sales Profits Capital expenditures Credit needs

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

What are your expectations for your business for the next 12 months? Increase Remain the same Decrease

14% 15% 21% 15%

21% 25%45%

61%

65%60%

34%

24%

2016 revenue/sales expectations by industry Increase Remain the same Decrease

Manufacturing

Wholesale

Services

Construction

Transportation

Retail

All middle market

20% 40% 60% 80% 100%0%

65%

75%

70%

64%

54%

64%

65%

23%

19%

23%

21%

25%

20%

21%

12%

6%

7%

15%

21%

16%

14%


Those in the South had the lowest expectations for revenue/

sales growth—likely because of their ties to oil and gas—while

respondents in the West were most optimistic about the comin

year’s revenue/sales growth. Indeed, the states in the West that

drove the higher-than-average expectation to increase revenue/

sales were Washington (79 percent), California (75 percent),

Arizona (75 percent) and Colorado (75 percent).

Differences were evident among industries, too. Those in the

services industry had the highest expectations for increased

revenue/sales, while those in the transportation industry

had the lowest expectations (75 percent versus 54 percent,

respectively).

MANAGING LABOR SUPPLY AND COSTS

A record number of business leaders reported being

challenged by a limited supply of talent (40 percent) and

the management of labor costs (40 percent) in 2016

(see chart on page 5).

Regionally, companies in the Midwest (48 percent) were

much more concerned about a limited supply of candidates,

while managing labor costs was a much bigger challenge

for businesses in the West (52 percent). Respondents in

g

the construction (63 percent) and services (50 percent)

industries reported the most challenges stemming from a

limited supply of talent.

Survey respondents reported a slight dip in plans to

increase full-time employees this year, while projections

2016 percentage of survey respondents, by region, indicating that a limited supply of talent is a top business challenge

39%2016

35%2015 34%

2016

29%2015

48%2016

42%2015

34%2016

30%2015

What are your employment and compensation projections for the next 12 months?

Increase Remain the same Decrease

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0

Full-time personnel

Part-time personnel Compensation

2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016

8% 7% 3%

43% 74% 36%

49%

19% 61%


for part-time personnel remained fairly flat. Taken together,

their responses appear to indicate that most companies

intend to keep their hiring and employment plans

consistent year over year.

Regionally, full-time personnel projections were consistent,

except for the South, where businesses were less likely to

increase full-time employees.

On an industry level, companies in the services industry

(69 percent) were most likely to increase full-time hires over

the next year, while those in transportation (47 percent) were

most likely to decrease hiring for full-time positions.

When asked what their primary reasons were for decreasing

full-time hires, most leaders cited “insufficient demand”

(71 percent), followed by “worries about the economic

recovery”(45 percent), which moved ahead of “increased

efficiency/productivity” (34 percent) for the first time. Those

who reported a lack of demand and concern about the

recovery increased fairly significantly year over year—by

15 percentage points and 14 percentage points, respectively.

2016 full-time personnel projections by industry Increase Remain the same Decrease

Manufacturing

Wholesale

Services

Construction

Transportation

Retail

All middle market

20% 40% 60% 80% 100%0%

46%

69%

54%

48%

47%

56%

49%

46%

26%

45%

43%

37%

38%

43%

8%

5%

1%

9%

16%

6%

8%

2016 full-time personnel projections by region Increase Remain the same Decrease

51%

43% 49%

53% 49%43%

46% 43%

41% 43%

6%

11% 8%

6% 8%

All middle market


Among those who plan to increase hiring, 81 percent plan

to do so because of anticipated sales growth. A new answer

option—“employee turnover/retiring employees”—was

added to the survey this year. It was the second most selected

answer overall (39 percent) and especially resonated with

those in the construction and transportation industries.

Filling positions that require a specific skill set remains a

top challenge for middle market executives, with 34 percent

of respondents reporting that they’re “extremely concerned”

or “very concerned” about the limited supply of candidates

with the requisite skills. The top three most in-demand

skills this year are:

� Technical/trade skills

� Managerial skills

� Communication skills

To address the talent shortage, leaders intend to take

a number of steps, including:

� Developing in-house training programs

� Offering higher wages to attract applicants with the

specific skills needed

� Partnering with local community colleges to improve

skills in the talent pool

� Increasing attempts to recruit and retain older workers

How concerned are you about a limited supply of candidates with the right skill set?

Very concerned

Extremely concernedNot at all concerned

28%

6%

Somewhat concerned

41%

A little concerned

16%

9%

20%

What will be the primary focus of your company’s growth strategies over the next 12 months?

2014 2015 2016

PLANS FOR GROWTH REMAIN CONSISTENT

Although a greater number of executives anticipated

revenue and sales challenges in 2016, they don’t appear to

be changing their growth strategies year over year. Most

companies plan to grow by attracting new customers,

expanding and/or diversifying their offerings and up-

selling/cross-selling to existing clients.

Attract new customers

Up-sell/cross-sell

Expand US markets

Expand global markets

Acquisitions

Expand/diversify offerings

40% 60%0%

58%

54%

44%

37%

20%

18%


Conclusion


Changing Perspectives

This year’s report presents a different picture than in prior

years of how executives view the global, national and local

economies, with higher levels of pessimism across the

board. However, it’s important to keep this year’s results in

perspective.

While it’s true that international stressors are casting long

shadows on the business outlook, concern about the current

business environment is one thing—taking action is another.

And ultimately, leaders’ plans don’t seem to be changing

much in 2016. Year over year, they’re focused on the same

strategies and challenges, and executives appear less

concerned about the regulations facing their industries than

they have been in the past.

Furthermore, nothing is set in stone. In last year’s Business

Leaders Outlook report, there was a growing optimism

among middle market leaders about the economy and the

business outlook. This year’s survey was fielded at a unique

time in the market—and a lot can change in a year’s time.

As markets rebound and the 2016 presidential election comes

to a close, there’s reason to hope that this year will provide

more opportunities to be optimistic than initially expected.

There’s reason to hope that this year will provide more

opportunities to be optimistic than initially expected.


About the SurveyWHAT IS THE BUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK SURVEY?

In its sixth straight year, the Business Leaders Outlook Survey* continues to provide a snapshot of the current business

environment, the trends influencing that environment and the decision making of the executives who operate in it.

This year’s survey was conducted from January 12 to 29, 2016.

* The results of this online survey are within statistical parameters for validity, and the error rate is plus or minus 2.5 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval

Who took the surveyThe results are based on responses from 1,394 senior executives from middle market companies in various industries across the country.

CFO

Owner

CEO/Chairman

President

Other

42%

14%

27%

11%

6%

Number of company employees

100 to 249

1 to 99

250 to 499

500 to 999

1,000 to 4,999

5,000+

26%

27%

19%

13%

13%

2%

Where their companies are based

16%West 17%

Northeast

35%Midwest

32%South


About Our Experts


JIM GLASSMANHead Economist Commercial Banking

As Managing Director and Head Economist for Commercial

Banking, Jim Glassman provides market insights to help

clients better understand the changing economy and its

impact on their businesses. Jim also works closely with

the firm’s Investment Bank, Chief Investment Office, and

Investor Relations and Government Relations groups,

providing financial analysis and research to these partners.

Jim has a master’s degree in economics from the University

of Illinois at Chicago, and he earned his PhD in economics

from Northwestern University.

JOHN SIMMONSHead of Middle Market Banking & Specialized Industries Commercial Banking

John Simmons is the Head of Middle Market Banking &

Specialized Industries. He began his banking career in

1992 with J.P. Morgan, and over the last 24 years, he’s held

leadership positions in the Financial Institutions Group,

Debt Capital Markets, Equity Capital Markets and Telecom,

Media & Technology Investment Banking. Prior to his

current position, John served as Co-Head of J.P. Morgan’s

Financial Institutions Group and managed the firm’s

relationships with many of North America’s largest banks.

MORGAN MCGRATHHead of International Banking Commercial Banking

Morgan McGrath is Head of International Banking and

is responsible for the global relationship management of

Commercial Banking clients. He has extensive experience

in Investment Banking and Commercial Banking client

coverage. Throughout his career, Morgan has worked

with a wide range of US and foreign companies, financial

institutions and governments in Europe, the Americas and

Asia-Pacific.

© 2016 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. Chase and J.P. Morgan are marketing names for certain businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its subsidiaries. The material contained herein is intended as a general market commentary, in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. Further, the information and any views contained herein may differ from that contained in J.P. Morgan research reports. 157403

2016 Business Leaders Outlook - J.P. Morgan · 4 | 2016 BUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK. A More Cautious...

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