2016 Analyst Day - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM-Resources/ev… · Partner . Customer...
Transcript of 2016 Analyst Day - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM-Resources/ev… · Partner . Customer...
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2016 Analyst Day December 14, 2016
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Introduction Jimmie Blotter Assistant Treasurer
Director, Investor Relations and Shareholder Services
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Agenda
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Time Topic Presenter
10:00 – 10:05 Welcome / Introductions Jimmie Blotter
10:05 – 10:30 Strategic Overview Pat Vincent-Collawn
10:30 – 11:00 PNM 2018 General Rate Case Gerard Ortiz
11:00 – 11:30 2017 Guidance / Financial Update Chuck Eldred
11:30 – 12:00 Wrap Up / Q&A Pat Vincent-Collawn
12:00 – 1:00 Lunch
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Safe Harbor Statement and Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Safe Harbor Statement Statements made in this presentation that relate to future events or PNM Resources, Inc.’s (“PNMR”), Public Service Company of New Mexico’s (“PNM”), or Texas-New Mexico Power Company’s (“TNMP”) (collectively, the “Company”) expectations, projections, estimates, intentions, goals, targets, and strategies are made pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Readers are cautioned that all forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and estimates. PNMR, PNM, and TNMP assume no obligation to update this information. Because actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, PNMR, PNM, and TNMP caution readers not to place undue reliance on these statements. PNMR's, PNM's, and TNMP's business, financial condition, cash flow, and operating results are influenced by many factors, which are often beyond their control, that can cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. For a discussion of risk factors and other important factors affecting forward-looking statements, please see the Company’s Form 10-K and 10-Q filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which factors are specifically incorporated by reference herein.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures For an explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures that appear on certain slides in this presentation (ongoing earnings, ongoing earnings per diluted share and EBITDA), as well as a reconciliation to GAAP measures, please refer to the Company’s website as follows: http://www.pnmresources.com/investors/results.cfm
http://www.pnmresources.com/investors/results.cfm
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Strategic Overview Pat Vincent-Collawn
Chairman, President and CEO
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PNM Resources Strategic Direction
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• PNM: 2015 and 2016 ReliabilityOne Award recipient • PNM: Below regional and national average residential rates • PNM: Record-high customer perception survey results • TNMP: 11th consecutive ENERGY STAR Market Leader Award • TNMP: Strong record of high reliability • TNMP: 60% reduction in 2016 meter reading/estimated billing complaints
Build a Highly Efficient, Customer-Focused and
Adaptable Organization
• PNM economic development rate and special renewable energy rate for new customers
• San Juan Generating Station Plan (BART) approved • NMPRC approval of future test year definition • FERC formula rate methodology implemented • TNMP semi-annual TCOS filings
Improve Regulatory Outcomes
• Transformation to a more carbon-free generation portfolio well under way • Investments in transmission and distribution upgrades, environmental
equipment and grid modernization • Over $2 billion of capital investments over past 5 years
Continue to Invest in the Business
Create enduring value for customers, communities and shareholders
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PNM Resources Strategic Goals
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Strategic Financial Goals
Earn authorized return on regulated businesses
Above industry average earnings and dividend growth
Maintain solid investment grade credit ratings
• Investing aligned to policy directives, reliability, evolving customer needs and transforming industry opportunities
Rate Base Growth
• Realizing earnings potential in business
• Reducing regulatory lag • Earning our allowed return
Earnings Growth
• Sustaining and growing the dividend
• Providing above-average dividend growth
Dividend Growth
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PNM Resources: Staying Focused in a Changing Environment
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• Potential New PNM
Customers from Economic Development Efforts
• Robust Economy in Texas
• 2017 Integrated Resource Plan
• San Juan Generating Station Scenarios
• PNM 2018 General Rate Case • PNM AMI Filing • TNMP Upcoming General
Rate Case Improving Regulatory Environment
Supporting Customer Growth
Transforming PNM’s Generation Portfolio
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PNM Regulatory
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• Appeal filed September 30, 2016
NM Supreme Court Appeal
• Requested revenue increase of $99 million with 10.125% ROE • Based on calendar year 2018 future test year • Rates effective January 1, 2018
2018 General Rate Case Filed December 7, 2016
• Suspension lifted December 6, 2016; hearing scheduled February 27, 2017
AMI Filing
• Participation in Notice of Inquiry and workshops to explore impacts of utility-owned distributed generation
Distributed Generation Workshops
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TNMP Regulatory
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• TCOS filings update for transmission investments, but distribution assets and other rate base items have not been updated since last rate case filing (test period ending March 2010)
True-up Transmission and Distribution Recovery
• Operating costs and retail load have not been updated since 2010 rate case
True-up Operating Costs and Load
• To be filed no later than September 2018 to coincide with AMS filing requirements
Timing
Upcoming General Rate Case: Key Elements
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PNM Customer Focus
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High Reliability Affordability
Community Partner
Customer Satisfaction
Highlights • Customer Satisfaction
Research and Polling, Inc. survey results • New Mexico Economic Development Efforts
Secured Facebook data center which opens the door for similar customers to consider NM
• Legislation Consumer protection
Enhancing the Customer Experience
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PNM 2017 Integrated Resource Plan
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Additional Requirements from BART Agreement
• Two potential resource
portfolios to be included in 2017 IRP One with and one
without SJGS Units 1 and 4 continuing operations post-2022
• By December 31, 2018, PNM must make a separate NMPRC filing to determine whether SJGS should continue to serve customers
Roadmap for meeting customer demand over 20-year horizon, provides foundation for the selection of
future resources
Solicits and incorporates public input
Documents four- year
action plan
Revisited every three years
2017 IRP submission required by July 3, 2017
Filed with NMPRC for review and acceptance
Proposed resources approved separately
Determines need to secure remaining Palo Verde leases beyond expiration date
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PNM 2018 General Rate Case Gerard Ortiz
Vice President, PNM Regulatory Affairs
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PNM 2018 General Rate Case
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• Requested revenue increase of $99 million Based on calendar year 2018 and 10.125% ROE
Revenue Requirement
• BART items Palo Verde Unit 3 Retirement of San Juan Units 2 & 3 132 MW San Juan Unit 4 Accelerated depreciation on SNCR
equipment • Four Corners SCRs • T&D reliability and core investments • Energy sales • Re-allocation of FERC Wholesale
Generation & Transmission • ROE
Rate Design
• Increase fixed charge • Lost Contribution to Fixed Cost
mechanism (LCFC) • Phase-in implementation
Phase I: $50M in 2018 Phase II: $49M in 2019
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PNM 2018 General Rate Case Drivers
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Rate Base (in millions)
Incremental Revenue
Requirement (in millions)
Compliance Items: BART Items: Palo Verde Unit 3 $96 $45 Retirement of San Juan Units 2 and 3 (95) (29) 132 MW of San Juan Unit 4 11 16 Accelerated Depreciation on San Juan SNCRs - 3
Subtotal BART Items $12 $35 Four Corners SCRs 61 9
Subtotal Compliance Items (44% of requested increase) $73 $44 Core Rate Base, Depreciation and Property Taxes 33 20 Energy Sales 11 ROE to 10.125% from 9.575% 10 Re-allocation of FERC Wholesale Generation & Transmission 12 9 Other 5
Total $118 $99
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PNM 2018 General Rate Case Energy Sales and LCFC
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Energy Sales • Compared to the last filed retail load forecast, load decline has
contributed to a $11 million revenue requirement deficiency Customer growth is offset by declining usage driven by energy efficiency, changes to
codes and standards, and distributed generation Industrial usage reflects recent declines
LCFC Mechanism: • Reimburses lost fixed costs per kWh
due to energy efficiency and load management programs
• Consistent with mechanism described in Hearing Examiner’s recommended decision in 2016 general rate case
• Annual true-up based on verified energy efficiency program savings
581
564
14 11 9
500
550
600
2016 GRC 2018 GRC
Residential Use per Customer (kWh/month)
Energy Efficiency Codes and Standards Distributed Generation
599
Lost Contribution to Fixed Costs (LCFC)
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• Forecasted PNM customer bills remain below current national and regional averages
• Proposed rate design continues to reduce residential subsidization
PNM 2018 General Rate Case Bill Impact
17 (2)PNM rates reflect current approved rates (2016) and proposed rates filed under the 2018 General Rate Increase. All others reflect U.S. Energy Information Administration's Residential Rate increases through June 2016.
Customer Impact Bill Impact(1)
Phase I Total Residential 6.4% 12.8% Commercial 4.8% - 5.2% 9.5% - 10.3% Industrial 4.3% - 5.1% 8.5% - 10.1% System Average 5.7% 11.2% (1) Bill Impact considers impacts of proposed rates under the 2018 General Rate
Case along with Fuel and Purchased Power Cost Adjustment Clause, Renewable Energy Rider and Energy Efficiency Rider changes. The $99 million request represents a non-fuel revenue increase of 14.3%.
$59.80
$73.19
$84.86
$105.90 $108.86
$142.36
$50 $100 $150
City of Seattle - (WA)Montana-Dakota Util. (MT)
EPE (TX)PS Colorado (CO)
PNM (NM) - CurrentCity of Colorado Springs - (CO)
NorthWestern Energy - (MT)LADWP (CA)
EPE (NM)City of Tacoma - (WA)
Avista Corp (ID)PacifiCorp (WY)
PNM (NM) - 2018 GRCPacifiCorp (UT)
Montana-Dakota Util. (WY)Avista Corp (WA)
SPS (NM)TEP (AZ)SCE (CA)SPS (TX)
PGE (OR)SMUD (CA)PG&E (CA)
SDG&E (CA)Idaho Power Co (ID)
PacifiCorp (ID)PacifiCorp (OR)
Black Hills Power Inc (WY)PacifiCorp (WA)
Region Average BillUS Average BillPacifiCorp (CA)
City of San Antonio - (TX)Entergy (TX)
Nevada Power Co (NV)SRP (AZ)APS (AZ)
Modesto Irrigation District (CA)Imperial Irrigation District (CA)
Comparison of Average Residential Bills(2) Western Region Average Bills by Utility
- PNM 2018 GRC
- PNM Current
- Current US Avg - Current Region Avg
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PNM 2018 General Rate Case Timeline
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12/7/2016 Rate Case Filed
12/7/2016 thru 10/8/2017
Statutory 9+1 Month Suspension
Period
10/8/2017 thru 1/5/2018
3 Month Allowance for Additional
Consideration by NMPRC
1/1/2018 Expected Effective
Date
~January: Expect Hearing Examiner to be assigned and schedule set
~May: Staff and Intervener Testimony ~July: Hearing
Potential Settlement Period
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2017 Guidance Chuck Eldred
Executive Vice President and CFO
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Consolidated Earnings Guidance Range (Ongoing)
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$1.77 Consolidated EPS $1.87
PNM $1.30- $1.37
TNMP $0.51 - $0.53
Corp/Other ($0.04) – ($0.03)
2016 Narrowed Earnings Guidance(1)
2017 Earnings Guidance Midpoint: $1.82
(1) 2016 Ongoing earnings guidance originally $1.55 - $1.76. Narrowed to $1.55 - $1.65 on August 4, 2016 and
$1.60 - $1.65 on December 13, 2016
$1.60 Consolidated EPS $1.65
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New Mexico Economic Conditions
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2017 Load Projection (1.0%) – 0%(1) 2017 Expected Customer Growth 0.7%
(1)Weather-normalized
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
PNM Customer Counts and Retail Energy Sales
Energy Sales Customers
Ener
gy S
ales
(GW
h) Total Custom
ers
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Oct. 2016
Employment Growth Rates New Mexico and Albuquerque Metro
(Year-end measurement, except 2016)
New Mexico Albuquerque Metro
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PNM Guidance (Ongoing)
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PNM Ongoing EPS
2016E – 2017E Key Performance Drivers Year-over-Year ∆ EPS
Retail rate relief $0.26 Restructuring cost savings $0.09 - $0.10 Transmission $0.04 - $0.06 AFUDC $0.04 - $0.06 Palo Verde Unit 3 market prices $0.03 Interest expense savings $0.02 2016 weather $0.02 Outage costs $0.01 - $0.02 Load ($0.05) - $0.00 Q2 2016 interest income from IRS, net of fees ($0.02) Palo Verde Nuclear Decommissioning Trust gains ($0.05) FERC Generation Navopache contract ($0.06) O&M increases ($0.07) - ($0.05) Depreciation and property tax ($0.08) - ($0.06)
2015 2016E 2017E
$1.18 $1.10 - $1.13 $1.30 - $1.37
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Texas Economic Conditions
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2017 Load Projection 2% - 3%(1) 2017 Expected End User Growth 1.6%
(1)Weather-normalized
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
TNMP End User Counts and Retail Energy Sales
Energy Sales Customers
Ener
gy S
ales
(GW
h)
Total End Users
-1%
1%
3%
5%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Oct. 2016
Employment Growth Rates Texas and Dallas Metro
(Year-end measurement, except 2016)
Texas Dallas Metro
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TNMP Guidance (Ongoing)
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$0.52
2015 2016E 2017E
$0.51 - $0.53 $0.52 - $0.53
TNMP Ongoing EPS
2016E – 2017E Key Performance Drivers Year-over-Year ∆ EPS
TCOS rate relief $0.04 - $0.05
Load $0.02 - $0.03
2016 weather $0.01
O&M increases ($0.01) - $0.00
Interest expense ($0.02)
Depreciation and property tax ($0.06) - ($0.05)
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Corporate and Other Guidance (Ongoing)
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($0.06)
2015 2016E 2017E
($0.02) – ($0.01) ($0.04) – ($0.03)
Corporate and Other Ongoing EPS
2016E – 2017E Key Performance Drivers and Assumptions Year-over-Year ∆ EPS
Westmoreland financing agreements ($0.02)
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EBITDA and Quarterly Earnings Distribution Guidance (Ongoing)
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Ongoing EBITDA (In millions)
2016E Midpoint 2017E Midpoint Consolidated PNM Resources $541 $589
PNM $360 $396
TNMP $156 $162
16% 24%
47%
13%
Q1 2017E Q2 2017E Q3 2017E Q4 2017E
2017 Quarterly Ongoing Earnings Distribution
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Earnings Growth
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Allowed Return /
Equity Ratio
2017 Guidance Midpoint 2018 Earnings Potential 2019 Earnings Potential Avg Rate
Base Return EPS Avg Rate
Base EPS Avg Rate Base EPS
PNM Retail / Renewables 9.575% / 50% $2.3 B 9.3% $1.32 $2.5 B $1.47 $2.5 B $1.46
Supreme Court Appeal
$0 - $150 M $0.00 - $0.09
PV3 ($0.12) Included in PNM Retail Included in PNM Retail
PNM FERC 10% / ~50% $180 M 7.9% $0.09 $245 M $0.11 - $0.14 $275 M $0.12 - $0.16
Items not in Rates ($0.03) ($0.03) - $0.00 ($0.03) - $0.00
Total PNM $2.6 B $1.33 $2.7 B $1.55 - $1.61 $2.7 - $2.9 B $1.55 - $1.71 TNMP 10.125% / 45% $815 M 10.125% $0.52 $890 M $0.53 $965 M $0.56
Corporate/Other ($0.03) ($0.06) - ($0.04) ($0.06) - ($0.04)
Total PNM Resources $3.4 B $1.82 $3.6 B $2.02 - $2.10 $3.7 - $3.9 B $2.05 - $2.23
• Potential Earnings Power supports 2015 – 2019 earnings growth target of 7% - 8% PNM growth achieved through new retail rates implemented October 2016 and 2018 General
Rate Case filing o Palo Verde Unit 3 added to rate base in 2018 o 2019 reflects potential recovery of NMPRC disallowed assets through New Mexico
Supreme Court appeal TNMP growth achieved through continuing capital investment and recovery through general
rate case and TCOS filings Corporate/Other includes Westmoreland financing
This table is not intended to represent a forward-looking projection of 2018 - 2019 earnings guidance. Refer to Slide 39 for additional details and disclosures.
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Capital Forecast
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$96
$157
$136
$15
2020
$404
$249
2016 – 2020 Total Capital Plan: $2.3B
PNM 2015-2020 Rate Base CAGR: 4 - 6%(1) TNMP 2015-2020 Rate Base CAGR: 8 - 10%
(1)Includes the addition of PV3 to rate base in 2018, which does not have associated capital spending. (2)The additional 65 MW ownership of San Juan Unit 4 included in the December BART approval is part of Corporate/Other for 2016-2017 and PNM beginning in 2018. Amounts may not add due to rounding.
$198 $221$238 $243
$292
$138 $112 $119
$120
$170
$119 $163
$125
$151
$134
$137
$36
$57
$30
$15
2016 2017 2018 2019
(In millions)
PNM Generation PNM T&D TNMP Corporate/Other Depreciation
$573
$516
$395 $435
Palo Verde Unit 3
added to rate base
(2)
Expect future refinements
Chart1
2020
$249
Depreciation
249
Sheet1
2020
PNM Generation
PNM T&D
PNM Renewables
TNMP
Other
Total
Depreciation249
Check
Chart1
2016
2017
2018
2019
Depreciation
197.601
220.966
237.566
242.764
Sheet1
20162017201820192020
PNM Generation
PNM T&D
PNM Renewables
TNMP
Other
Total
Depreciation198221238243249
Check
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Liquidity, Capital Structure and Credit Ratings
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Available Liquidity
PNM TNMP Corporate/
Other PNM Resources
Consolidated Financing Capacity as of November 30, 2016: (In millions) Total Capacity(1) $450.0 $75.0 $300.0 $825.0 Less short-term debt(1) and LOC balances $34.9 $0.1 $184.6 $219.6 Plus invested cash - - 1.5 1.5
Total Available Liquidity $415.1 $74.9 $116.9 $606.9
Target regulatory cap structures: 50/50 at PNM, 55/45 at TNMP
Moody’s S&P
PNM Resources Baa3(2) BBB+(2)
PNM(4) Baa2 BBB+(3)
TNMP A1(4) A(4)
Issuer Outlook Stable Stable
(1)Excludes intercompany debt and term loans (2) Issuer/Corporate rating (3) Senior unsecured (4) Senior secured (5) Reflects estimated principle payments under the Westmoreland financing agreements
Strong liquidity and balanced capital structure supports investment grade credit metrics at Moody’s and S&P
PNMR FFO-to-Debt is maintained well within Moody’s Baa investment grade target range of 13% to 22%
$198 $40 $3
$682
$100
$859
$172
$233
2016-2018 2019-2020 Beyond 2020
Long-term Debt Maturities Principal Amounts
(in millions)
Corporate PNM TNMP(5)
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$1.31 $1.41 $1.49
$1.60 $1.77 $1.64 $1.65
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
Ongoing EPS
$1.87
Deliver Above Industry Average Earnings and Dividend Growth
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(1) Assumes mid-point of 2017 guidance (2) Indicative annual rate 2012 – 2015 Ongoing EPS represents actual results 2016E Ongoing EPS represents ongoing earnings guidance of $1.60 - $1.65 per diluted share 2017E Ongoing EPS represents ongoing earnings guidance of $1.77 - $1.87 per diluted share
• Annual common stock dividend raised by 10% to $0.97(2) per share in December 2016
• Expect above industry average dividend growth in the future while targeting the 50% - 60% payout ratio range
• Next dividend review in December 2017
$0.58 Feb ‘12
$0.66 Feb ‘13
$0.74 Dec ‘13
$0.80 Dec ‘14
$0.88 Dec ‘15
$0.97 Dec ‘16
Indicated Annual Dividends
• 7% - 8% Earnings Growth 2015 - 2019
53%(1) payout ratio
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Wrap Up Pat Vincent-Collawn
Chairman, President and CEO
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PNM Resources: Staying Focused in a Changing Environment
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Staying focused in order to deliver above industry average earnings and dividend growth • Maintain high reliability and enhance the customer experience • File rate cases to minimize regulatory lag, realize earnings
potential and maintain credit ratings • Work with community partners to enhance economic
development and regulatory support Integrated Resource Plan
• Filing represents milestone in determination of PNM’s future generation portfolio
PNM Resources Sustainability Portal
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Albuquerque Gas & Electric Company formed (1917)
Bernalillo Sawmill Power Plant generated 2,500 KW (1927)
Public Service Company of New Mexico formed (1946)
Celebrating 100 years of serving New Mexico (2017)
2017 Marks 100 Years of PNM History
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Questions & Answers
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Appendix
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2017 Assumptions
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amounts shown are before tax
PNM TNMP Corporate/ Other
2017 weather $0 (normal) $0 (normal) N/A
Load (1.0%) to 0.0%
1% = $0.05 2.0% to 3.0% 1% = $0.01
N/A
Palo Verde Unit 3 sales price ($/MWh) ~$29 N/A N/A
Outage costs $14M - $16M N/A N/A
PV3 Nuclear Decommissioning Trust gains $10M - $12M N/A N/A
Anticipated effective tax rate 36.9% 36.8% 54.3%
Average PNM Resources diluted shares outstanding 80.0M 80.0M 80.0M
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PNM Plant Outages and Retirement Schedule
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2016 - 2017 Planned Outage Schedule
Palo Verde
Unit Duration in Days Time
Period
3 34 Q4 2016
2 34 Q2 2017
1 34 Q4 2017
Four Corners
Unit Duration in Days Time
Period
4 10 Q2 2017
5 10 Q2 2017
5 95 Q3-Q4 2017
San Juan
Unit Time Period
2 12/31/2017
3 12/31/2017
2017 Scheduled Unit Retirements
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2016 Consolidated Earnings Guidance Range (Ongoing)
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$1.60 Consolidated EPS $1.65
PNM $1.10 - $1.13
TNMP $0.52 - $0.53
Corp/Other ($0.02) – ($0.01)
2016 Narrowed Earnings Guidance(1)
(1) 2016 Ongoing earnings guidance originally $1.55 - $1.76. Tightened to $1.55 - $1.65 on August 4, 2016 and
$1.60 - $1.65 on December 13, 2016
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2017 - 2019 Potential Earnings Power
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Allowed Return /
Equity Ratio
2017 Guidance Midpoint 2018 Earnings Potential 2019 Earnings Potential Avg Rate
Base Return EPS Avg Rate
Base EPS Avg Rate
Base EPS
PNM Retail (1) 9.575% / 50% $2.3 B 9.3% $1.32 $2.4 B $1.42 $2.4 B $1.41
Supreme Court Appeal (2) $0 - $150 M $0.00 - $0.09
PNM Renewables (3) 9.575% / 50% $95 M 9.575% $0.06 $90 M $0.05 $85 M $0.05
PNM FERC (4) 10% / ~50% $180 M 7.9% $0.09 $245 M $0.11 - $0.14 $275 M $0.12 - $0.16
PV3 (5) ($0.12) Included in PNM Retail Included in PNM Retail
Items not in Rates (6) ($0.03) ($0.03) - $0.00 ($0.03) - $0.00
Total PNM $2.6 B $1.33 $2.7 B $1.55 - $1.61 $2.7 - $2.9 B $1.55 - $1.71
TNMP (7) 10.125% / 45% $815 M 10.125% $0.52 $890 M $0.53 $965 M $0.56
Corporate/Other (8) ($0.03) ($0.06) - ($0.04) ($0.06) - ($0.04)
Total PNM Resources $3.4 B $1.82 $3.6 B $2.02 - $2.10 $3.7 - $3.9 B $2.05 - $2.23
(1) Recently authorized 9.575% ROE has been used for all forecasted years. (2) Reflects a range of outcomes for the New Mexico Supreme Court appeal of the August 2015 General Rate Case final order. For purposes of writing down the value of the
assets under appeal at Sept. 30, 2016, a minimum 15-month appeal timeframe was used. 2019 average rate base presented includes: PV2 64MW Acquisition Adjustment (~$75M), PV2 Leasehold Improvements (~$25M) and Balanced Draft Technology (~$50M).
(3) PNM Renewables reflect assets collected through the Renewable Rate Rider. (4) PNM FERC earnings potential reflects a return of 7-9% versus the allowed return of 10%, as FERC formula rate methodology uses prior year average rate base and provides
for mid-year rate increases. (5) 2017 Earnings Potential assumes a forward market price of $29/MWh; a price of $44/MWh is required to break even. PV3 is included in PNM rates beginning in 2018. (6) Consists primarily of Palo Verde Nuclear Decommissioning Trust gains and losses, AFUDC, certain incentive compensation, earnings in 2017 associated with the assets
previously allocated to the Navopache contract, and the 65MW ownership of San Juan Unit 4 beginning in 2018. (7) TNMP Earnings Potential includes $0.02 of Competitive Transition Charge recovery in 2017 and 2018 and $0.01 in 2019. (8) Corporate/Other includes earnings associated with the 65MW ownership of San Juan Unit 4 before PNM assumes ownership in 2018,
short and intermediate term bank debt, and the net impact of Westmoreland financing through NM Capital Utility Corporation.
This table is not intended to represent a forward-looking projection of 2018 - 2019 earnings guidance.
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New Mexico Public Regulation Commissioners
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District Name Term Ends Party
District 1 Karen Montoya, Vice Chair 2016(1) Democrat
District 2 Patrick Lyons 2018 Republican
District 3 Valerie Espinoza, Chairman 2016(1) Democrat
District 4 Lynda Lovejoy 2018 Democrat
District 5 Sandy Jones 2018 Democrat
(1) The terms for Karen Montoya and Valerie Espinoza expire in 2016. Valerie Espinoza was re-elected to a term ending in 2020. Cynthia Hall, Democrat, was elected to the District 1 seat with a term ending 2020 after defeating Karen Montoya in the primary.
NMPRC Districts and PNM Service Areas
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Texas Public Utility Commissioners
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Commissioners are appointed by Governor of Texas. Length of term is determined by the Governor.
Name Term Began Term Ends Party
Donna Nelson Chairman
Aug. 2008 Sept. 2021 Republican
Kenneth Anderson Sept. 2008 Aug. 2017 Republican
Brandy Marty Marquez Aug. 2013 Aug. 2019 Republican
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PNM 2016 General Rate Case Final Order
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Key Rate Case Elements (PNM Retail Share, net of ADIT)
Commission Order
Original Request
Impact to Rate Increase
ROE 9.575% 10.5% ($17) M
Rate Base:
Palo Verde Unit 2 lease purchase (64 MW) $55 M(1) $153 M(2) ($15) M
Leasehold improvements and common plant associated with the 64 MWs of previously leased Palo Verde Unit 2 capacity
Disallowed $26 M ($4) M
Balanced Draft Technology Disallowed $39 M ($5) M
Five months of CWIP $55 M $55 M No adjustment
Pre-Paid pension asset $83 M $83 M No adjustment
Other Revenue Requirements:
Depreciation Rates $14.2 M $20.6 M ($6.4) M
Palo Verde Lease and Property Tax Expense (remaining 114 MW of leased capacity) $19.5 M $19.5 M
No adjustment
NMPRC approved final order Sept. 28, 2016: • Non-fuel revenue increase of $61.2M versus $121.5M request • Retail rate base of $2,263M versus $2,458M request
(1) Reflects 13-month average rate base, equivalent to $1,306/kW (2) Reflects period-end rate base, equivalent to $2,500/kW
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New Mexico Supreme Court Appeal
43
Appealed Item Conclusion Resulting Impact Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station:
64MW Unit 2 Capacity Purchase
and
Units 1 and 2 Lease Extensions
Purchase deemed imprudent
Extension deemed imprudent
Fair market value of purchase disallowed; leasehold
improvements rate base disallowed; future responsibility for decommissioning shifted to
shareholders
San Juan Generating Station
Balanced Draft Air permit considered
insufficient justification and investment deemed imprudent
Rate base disallowed
• PNM filed Notice of Appeal with New Mexico Supreme Court on September 30, 2016 • PNM filed Statement of Issues on October 26, 2016:
Note: At September 30, 2016, the asset value of the Palo Verde and balanced draft investments pending appeal with the New Mexico Supreme Court were reduced by $6.8 million pre-tax to reflect a minimum of fifteen months disallowed recovery during appeal.
• No statutory timeline; New Mexico Supreme Court to set calendar for remaining process
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PNM Residential Affordability
44
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
Est.
Aver
age
2015
Res
iden
tial E
lect
ric B
ill
Es.t
2015
Med
ian
Hous
ehol
d In
com
e
PNM's Residential Affordability Remains Below the National Average
Sources: EIA Form 826, US Census Bureau
U.S. Average: 2.4%
PNM bills reflect current approved rates (2016) and proposed rates filed under the 2018 General Rate Case. All others reflect U.S. Energy Information Administration's Forecasted Residential Rate increases through 2015.
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Regulatory Update
45
Filing Action Timing Docket No. NMPRC:
2018 General Rate Case Filed December 7, 2016 Rates expected to be implemented January 1, 2018
16-00276-UT
AMI Suspension lifted December 6, 2016
Hearing scheduled to begin February 27, 2017 15-00312-UT
August 2015 General Rate Case
Appealed to New Mexico Supreme Court on September 30, 2016
Statement of Issues filed by PNM and cross-appellants; pending scheduling by court
No docket
FERC: No outstanding filings
TNMP: No outstanding filings
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PNM San Juan Generating Station Ownership and Participants
46
Unit Total MW PNM MW
PNM Ownership Other Participants/Ownership
1 340 170 50% Tucson Electric 50% (170 MW) 2 340 170 50% Tucson Electric 50% (170 MW)
3 497 248 50% Southern California Power Authority 41.8% (208 MW) Tri-State 8.2% (41 MW)
4 507 195 38.457%
M-S-R Public Power Agency 28.8% (146 MW) City of Anaheim 10.04% (51 MW) City of Farmington 8.475% (43 MW) Los Alamos County 7.2% (36.5 MW) Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems (UAMPS) 7.028% (35.5 MW)
Total 1,684 783
Unit Owner 2018 MW % 1 PNM
Tucson Electric Power Company 170 170
20.1 20.1
4 PNM City of Farmington Los Alamos County UAMPS PNMR Development Company
327 43
36.5 35.5 65
38.6 5.1 4.3 4.2 7.7
Total 847 100.0
Exiting Participants: Southern California Power Authority Tri-State
M-S-R Public Power Agency City of Anaheim
Current Ownership
Ownership Restructuring Changes
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PNM Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station Unit 1 and 2 Leases
47
MW Owned vs. Leased
Leases • Unit 1: January 15, 2015; exercised option to extend leases to 2023 • Unit 2: January 15, 2016; exercised right to purchase 3 leases and option to extend one lease to 2024
• Total PV Unit 1 - $16.5M • Total PV Unit 2 - $1.6M
Yearly Payment Amounts
Unit 1
Owned 2.3% 30 MW
Leased 7.9% 104 MW
Total 10.2% 134 MW
Unit 2
Owned 9.5% 124 MW
Leased 0.7% 10 MW
Total 10.2% 134 MW
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PNM Investment in Renewable Energy
48
Portfolio Standard as a % of Retail Sales
15% 2015
20% 2020
Renewable Rider Collection Methodology
Recovery of renewable investments and REC purchases permitted
through Renewable Energy Rider
New Mexico Renewable Energy Act Streamlined proceedings for approval of utilities’ renewable energy procurement
plans
Provides for recovery of program costs under approved procurement plan
Current Renewable Resources
PNM-Owned Renewable Resources
107 MW of solar capacity(1) Solar battery storage facility
Purchase Power Agreements (PPA) 204 MW PPA with NextEra Energy’s New Mexico Wind Energy Center
102 MW PPA with NextEra Energy’s Red Mesa 4 MW PPA with Dale Burgett Geothermal Plant
Customer-Owned Solar Facilities
57.3 MW of solar capacity
(1) The 40 MW of PNM-owned solar capacity placed in service in 2015 is being recovered through base rates rather than through the Renewable Energy Rider.
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PNM Diversified Generation Portfolio: Capacity
49
Coal 29%
Nuclear 15%
Natural Gas 40%
Renewables 16%
Capacity 2018 Forecasted Generation Mix
Coal 35%
Nuclear 15%
Natural Gas 35%
Renewables 15%
Capacity 2,787 MW As of 12/31/2015
Includes capacity from Purchased Power Agreements
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PNM Diversified Generation Portfolio: Energy
50
Coal 50%
Nuclear 31%
Natural Gas 12%
Renewables 7%
Energy 10,763 GWh
Based on 12 months ending 12/31/15
Coal 44%
Nuclear 29%
Natural Gas 17%
Renewables 10%
Energy 2018 Forecasted Generation Mix
Includes energy from Purchased Power Agreements
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Impact of Environmental Regulation- SJGS
51
San Juan Generating Station Estimated Compliance Costs (PNM Share) Comments
Clean Air Act – Regional Haze (State Alternative) – SNCR Minimal remaining costs
Installation of SNCR technology on Units 1 and 4 completed in 2016; retirement of Units 2 and 3 scheduled for Dec. 31, 2017.
Clean Air Act – National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)
Included in SNCR
Balanced draft will assist with NAAQS compliance. On Oct. 1, 2015, EPA published the new primary and secondary ozone NAAQS of 70 ppb (from 75 ppb). States and tribes submitted area designations for ozone attainment/non-attainment areas by Oct. 1, 2016. By June 1, 2017, EPA will respond to state and tribal recommendations. The state has designated San Juan County in attainment for ozone.
Mercury Rules (MATS) None to minimal Testing shows 99% or greater removal.
Resource Conservation and Recovery Act – Coal Ash
Minimal to some exposure
EPA published the final coal combustion residuals (CCR) rule on April 20, 2015. The rule regulates CCR as a non-hazardous waste under Subtitle D of RCRA. SJGS operations are in compliance with the CCR rule which became effective Oct. 19, 2015. The rule does not apply to placement of coal ash in mines – Office of Surface Mining (OSM) is expected to issue its own proposed rule (perhaps in 2016 but likely later) and OSM will be influenced by EPA’s rule.
Clean Water Act – 316(b) Cooling Water Intake Structures
Minimal to some exposure
On Sept. 22, 2015, EPA granted approval to terminate SJGS’s National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (“NPDES”) permit. Although SJGS has been a zero discharge facility for several years, EPA required the plant to maintain a NPDES permit. The cooling water intake structure rule still applies as the plant operates under EPA’s NPDES Multi-Sector General Stormwater Permit. PNM is currently working with EPA Region 6 to address any requirements with the next permit renewal which could be issued as soon as 2020.
Effluent Limitation Guidelines (Wastewater Discharge)
None to minimal exposure EPA published the final Steam Effluent Guidelines Rule on September 30, 2015. Because SJGS is zero discharge for wastewater and no longer holds an NPDES process water permit, minimum to no requirements are expected.
Clean Power Plan (CPP) Slight exposure
On Oct. 23, 2015, EPA published the CPP in the Federal Register under section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act. SJGS and PNM’s other affected units in NM appear to be well positioned to assist the state in meeting the rule’s requirements. Supreme Court stayed the rule pending judicial review by the D.C. Circuit Court. Oral arguments were held Sept. 27, 2016; decision expected in 2017 with Supreme Court appeal and ruling likely to follow.
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Impact of Environmental Regulation- Four Corners
52
Four Corners (Units 4 and 5) Estimated Compliance Costs (PNM Share) Comments
Clean Air Act – Regional Haze – SCR $94M
Final BART determination filed with EPA on Dec. 30, 2013. Impact to PNM: SCR controls for NOx on Units 4 & 5 by July 31, 2018.
Clean Air Act – National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) Some to significant exposure
On Oct. 1, 2015, EPA published the new primary and secondary NAAQS for ozone. The standard decreased from 75 ppb to 70 ppb. ). States and tribes submitted area designations for ozone attainment/non-attainment areas by Oct. 1, 2016.By June 1, 2017, EPA(1) will respond to state and tribal recommendations. The state has designated San Juan County in attainment for ozone.
Mercury Rules (MATS) Slight exposure APS has determined that no additional equipment will be required.
Resource Conservation and Recovery Act – Coal Ash Slight exposure
EPA published the final coal combustion residuals (CCR) rule on April 20, 2015. The rule regulates CCR as a non-hazardous waste under Subtitle D of RCRA. APS will be required to make some modifications to their ash handling operations.
Clean Water Act – 316(b) Cooling Water Intake Structures Some exposure
APS does not expect the cost impacts of this rule to be material and is currently in discussions with EPA Region 9, the NPDES permit writer for Four Corners, to determine the scope of requirements which will dictate the costs to comply.
Effluent Limitation Guidelines (Wastewater Discharge) Some exposure
EPA published the final Steam Effluent Guidelines Rule on Sept. 30, 2015. Effluent limitation guidelines restrictions will become effective with the next NPDES permit renewal, which occur in 5-year intervals that arise between 2018 and 2023. Until a draft NPDES permit for Four Corners is proposed, APS is uncertain what will be required to control these discharges in compliance with the finalized effluent limitations at that facility.
Clean Power Plan (CPP) (2) Some to significant exposure
On Oct. 23, 2015, EPA published the CPP in the Federal Register under section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act. Supreme Court stayed the rule pending judicial review of the rule by the D.C. Circuit Court. Oral arguments were held Sept. 27, 2016; decision expected in 2017 with Supreme Court appeal and ruling likely to follow.
(1) NMED does not have jurisdiction over Navajo Nation. (2) EPA has proposed to determine that it is necessary or appropriate to impose a federal plan on the Navajo Nation to comply with CPP.
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Investor Relations Contact Information
53
Jimmie Blotter Assistant Treasurer Director, Investor Relations and Shareholder Services U.S. 1-505-241-2227 [email protected] Lisa Goodman Investor Relations Manager U.S. 1-505-241-2160 [email protected]
Slide Number 1Slide Number 2AgendaSafe Harbor Statement and Non-GAAP Financial MeasuresSlide Number 5PNM Resources Strategic DirectionPNM Resources Strategic GoalsPNM Resources: Staying Focused in a Changing EnvironmentPNM RegulatoryTNMP RegulatoryPNM Customer FocusPNM 2017 Integrated Resource PlanSlide Number 13PNM 2018 General Rate CasePNM 2018 General Rate Case DriversPNM 2018 General Rate Case Energy Sales and LCFCPNM 2018 General Rate Case Bill ImpactPNM 2018 General Rate Case TimelineSlide Number 19Consolidated Earnings Guidance Range (Ongoing)New Mexico Economic ConditionsPNM Guidance (Ongoing)Texas Economic ConditionsTNMP Guidance (Ongoing)Corporate and Other Guidance (Ongoing)EBITDA and Quarterly Earnings Distribution Guidance (Ongoing)Earnings GrowthCapital ForecastLiquidity, Capital Structure and Credit RatingsDeliver Above Industry Average Earnings and Dividend GrowthSlide Number 31PNM Resources: Staying Focused in a Changing Environment2017 Marks 100 Years of PNM HistorySlide Number 34Slide Number 352017 AssumptionsPNM Plant Outages and Retirement Schedule2016 Consolidated Earnings Guidance Range (Ongoing)2017 - 2019 Potential Earnings PowerNew Mexico Public Regulation CommissionersTexas Public Utility CommissionersPNM 2016 General Rate Case Final Order New Mexico Supreme Court AppealPNM Residential AffordabilityRegulatory UpdatePNM San Juan Generating Station Ownership and ParticipantsPNM Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station Unit 1 and 2 LeasesPNM Investment in Renewable EnergyPNM Diversified Generation Portfolio: CapacityPNM Diversified Generation Portfolio: EnergyImpact of Environmental Regulation- SJGSImpact of Environmental Regulation- Four CornersInvestor Relations Contact Information