2016 Analyst Day - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM-Resources/ev… · Partner . Customer...

53
2016 Analyst Day December 14, 2016

Transcript of 2016 Analyst Day - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM-Resources/ev… · Partner . Customer...

  • 2016 Analyst Day December 14, 2016

  • Introduction Jimmie Blotter Assistant Treasurer

    Director, Investor Relations and Shareholder Services

  • Agenda

    3

    Time Topic Presenter

    10:00 – 10:05 Welcome / Introductions Jimmie Blotter

    10:05 – 10:30 Strategic Overview Pat Vincent-Collawn

    10:30 – 11:00 PNM 2018 General Rate Case Gerard Ortiz

    11:00 – 11:30 2017 Guidance / Financial Update Chuck Eldred

    11:30 – 12:00 Wrap Up / Q&A Pat Vincent-Collawn

    12:00 – 1:00 Lunch

  • 4

    Safe Harbor Statement and Non-GAAP Financial Measures

    Safe Harbor Statement Statements made in this presentation that relate to future events or PNM Resources, Inc.’s (“PNMR”), Public Service Company of New Mexico’s (“PNM”), or Texas-New Mexico Power Company’s (“TNMP”) (collectively, the “Company”) expectations, projections, estimates, intentions, goals, targets, and strategies are made pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Readers are cautioned that all forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and estimates. PNMR, PNM, and TNMP assume no obligation to update this information. Because actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, PNMR, PNM, and TNMP caution readers not to place undue reliance on these statements. PNMR's, PNM's, and TNMP's business, financial condition, cash flow, and operating results are influenced by many factors, which are often beyond their control, that can cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. For a discussion of risk factors and other important factors affecting forward-looking statements, please see the Company’s Form 10-K and 10-Q filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which factors are specifically incorporated by reference herein.

    Non-GAAP Financial Measures For an explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures that appear on certain slides in this presentation (ongoing earnings, ongoing earnings per diluted share and EBITDA), as well as a reconciliation to GAAP measures, please refer to the Company’s website as follows: http://www.pnmresources.com/investors/results.cfm

    http://www.pnmresources.com/investors/results.cfm

  • Strategic Overview Pat Vincent-Collawn

    Chairman, President and CEO

  • PNM Resources Strategic Direction

    6

    • PNM: 2015 and 2016 ReliabilityOne Award recipient • PNM: Below regional and national average residential rates • PNM: Record-high customer perception survey results • TNMP: 11th consecutive ENERGY STAR Market Leader Award • TNMP: Strong record of high reliability • TNMP: 60% reduction in 2016 meter reading/estimated billing complaints

    Build a Highly Efficient, Customer-Focused and

    Adaptable Organization

    • PNM economic development rate and special renewable energy rate for new customers

    • San Juan Generating Station Plan (BART) approved • NMPRC approval of future test year definition • FERC formula rate methodology implemented • TNMP semi-annual TCOS filings

    Improve Regulatory Outcomes

    • Transformation to a more carbon-free generation portfolio well under way • Investments in transmission and distribution upgrades, environmental

    equipment and grid modernization • Over $2 billion of capital investments over past 5 years

    Continue to Invest in the Business

    Create enduring value for customers, communities and shareholders

  • PNM Resources Strategic Goals

    7

    Strategic Financial Goals

    Earn authorized return on regulated businesses

    Above industry average earnings and dividend growth

    Maintain solid investment grade credit ratings

    • Investing aligned to policy directives, reliability, evolving customer needs and transforming industry opportunities

    Rate Base Growth

    • Realizing earnings potential in business

    • Reducing regulatory lag • Earning our allowed return

    Earnings Growth

    • Sustaining and growing the dividend

    • Providing above-average dividend growth

    Dividend Growth

  • PNM Resources: Staying Focused in a Changing Environment

    8

    • Potential New PNM

    Customers from Economic Development Efforts

    • Robust Economy in Texas

    • 2017 Integrated Resource Plan

    • San Juan Generating Station Scenarios

    • PNM 2018 General Rate Case • PNM AMI Filing • TNMP Upcoming General

    Rate Case Improving Regulatory Environment

    Supporting Customer Growth

    Transforming PNM’s Generation Portfolio

  • PNM Regulatory

    9

    • Appeal filed September 30, 2016

    NM Supreme Court Appeal

    • Requested revenue increase of $99 million with 10.125% ROE • Based on calendar year 2018 future test year • Rates effective January 1, 2018

    2018 General Rate Case Filed December 7, 2016

    • Suspension lifted December 6, 2016; hearing scheduled February 27, 2017

    AMI Filing

    • Participation in Notice of Inquiry and workshops to explore impacts of utility-owned distributed generation

    Distributed Generation Workshops

  • TNMP Regulatory

    10

    • TCOS filings update for transmission investments, but distribution assets and other rate base items have not been updated since last rate case filing (test period ending March 2010)

    True-up Transmission and Distribution Recovery

    • Operating costs and retail load have not been updated since 2010 rate case

    True-up Operating Costs and Load

    • To be filed no later than September 2018 to coincide with AMS filing requirements

    Timing

    Upcoming General Rate Case: Key Elements

  • PNM Customer Focus

    11

    High Reliability Affordability

    Community Partner

    Customer Satisfaction

    Highlights • Customer Satisfaction

    Research and Polling, Inc. survey results • New Mexico Economic Development Efforts

    Secured Facebook data center which opens the door for similar customers to consider NM

    • Legislation Consumer protection

    Enhancing the Customer Experience

  • PNM 2017 Integrated Resource Plan

    12

    Additional Requirements from BART Agreement

    • Two potential resource

    portfolios to be included in 2017 IRP One with and one

    without SJGS Units 1 and 4 continuing operations post-2022

    • By December 31, 2018, PNM must make a separate NMPRC filing to determine whether SJGS should continue to serve customers

    Roadmap for meeting customer demand over 20-year horizon, provides foundation for the selection of

    future resources

    Solicits and incorporates public input

    Documents four- year

    action plan

    Revisited every three years

    2017 IRP submission required by July 3, 2017

    Filed with NMPRC for review and acceptance

    Proposed resources approved separately

    Determines need to secure remaining Palo Verde leases beyond expiration date

  • PNM 2018 General Rate Case Gerard Ortiz

    Vice President, PNM Regulatory Affairs

  • PNM 2018 General Rate Case

    14

    • Requested revenue increase of $99 million Based on calendar year 2018 and 10.125% ROE

    Revenue Requirement

    • BART items Palo Verde Unit 3 Retirement of San Juan Units 2 & 3 132 MW San Juan Unit 4 Accelerated depreciation on SNCR

    equipment • Four Corners SCRs • T&D reliability and core investments • Energy sales • Re-allocation of FERC Wholesale

    Generation & Transmission • ROE

    Rate Design

    • Increase fixed charge • Lost Contribution to Fixed Cost

    mechanism (LCFC) • Phase-in implementation

    Phase I: $50M in 2018 Phase II: $49M in 2019

  • PNM 2018 General Rate Case Drivers

    15

    Rate Base (in millions)

    Incremental Revenue

    Requirement (in millions)

    Compliance Items: BART Items: Palo Verde Unit 3 $96 $45 Retirement of San Juan Units 2 and 3 (95) (29) 132 MW of San Juan Unit 4 11 16 Accelerated Depreciation on San Juan SNCRs - 3

    Subtotal BART Items $12 $35 Four Corners SCRs 61 9

    Subtotal Compliance Items (44% of requested increase) $73 $44 Core Rate Base, Depreciation and Property Taxes 33 20 Energy Sales 11 ROE to 10.125% from 9.575% 10 Re-allocation of FERC Wholesale Generation & Transmission 12 9 Other 5

    Total $118 $99

  • PNM 2018 General Rate Case Energy Sales and LCFC

    16

    Energy Sales • Compared to the last filed retail load forecast, load decline has

    contributed to a $11 million revenue requirement deficiency Customer growth is offset by declining usage driven by energy efficiency, changes to

    codes and standards, and distributed generation Industrial usage reflects recent declines

    LCFC Mechanism: • Reimburses lost fixed costs per kWh

    due to energy efficiency and load management programs

    • Consistent with mechanism described in Hearing Examiner’s recommended decision in 2016 general rate case

    • Annual true-up based on verified energy efficiency program savings

    581

    564

    14 11 9

    500

    550

    600

    2016 GRC 2018 GRC

    Residential Use per Customer (kWh/month)

    Energy Efficiency Codes and Standards Distributed Generation

    599

    Lost Contribution to Fixed Costs (LCFC)

  • • Forecasted PNM customer bills remain below current national and regional averages

    • Proposed rate design continues to reduce residential subsidization

    PNM 2018 General Rate Case Bill Impact

    17 (2)PNM rates reflect current approved rates (2016) and proposed rates filed under the 2018 General Rate Increase. All others reflect U.S. Energy Information Administration's Residential Rate increases through June 2016.

    Customer Impact Bill Impact(1)

    Phase I Total Residential 6.4% 12.8% Commercial 4.8% - 5.2% 9.5% - 10.3% Industrial 4.3% - 5.1% 8.5% - 10.1% System Average 5.7% 11.2% (1) Bill Impact considers impacts of proposed rates under the 2018 General Rate

    Case along with Fuel and Purchased Power Cost Adjustment Clause, Renewable Energy Rider and Energy Efficiency Rider changes. The $99 million request represents a non-fuel revenue increase of 14.3%.

    $59.80

    $73.19

    $84.86

    $105.90 $108.86

    $142.36

    $50 $100 $150

    City of Seattle - (WA)Montana-Dakota Util. (MT)

    EPE (TX)PS Colorado (CO)

    PNM (NM) - CurrentCity of Colorado Springs - (CO)

    NorthWestern Energy - (MT)LADWP (CA)

    EPE (NM)City of Tacoma - (WA)

    Avista Corp (ID)PacifiCorp (WY)

    PNM (NM) - 2018 GRCPacifiCorp (UT)

    Montana-Dakota Util. (WY)Avista Corp (WA)

    SPS (NM)TEP (AZ)SCE (CA)SPS (TX)

    PGE (OR)SMUD (CA)PG&E (CA)

    SDG&E (CA)Idaho Power Co (ID)

    PacifiCorp (ID)PacifiCorp (OR)

    Black Hills Power Inc (WY)PacifiCorp (WA)

    Region Average BillUS Average BillPacifiCorp (CA)

    City of San Antonio - (TX)Entergy (TX)

    Nevada Power Co (NV)SRP (AZ)APS (AZ)

    Modesto Irrigation District (CA)Imperial Irrigation District (CA)

    Comparison of Average Residential Bills(2) Western Region Average Bills by Utility

    - PNM 2018 GRC

    - PNM Current

    - Current US Avg - Current Region Avg

  • PNM 2018 General Rate Case Timeline

    18

    12/7/2016 Rate Case Filed

    12/7/2016 thru 10/8/2017

    Statutory 9+1 Month Suspension

    Period

    10/8/2017 thru 1/5/2018

    3 Month Allowance for Additional

    Consideration by NMPRC

    1/1/2018 Expected Effective

    Date

    ~January: Expect Hearing Examiner to be assigned and schedule set

    ~May: Staff and Intervener Testimony ~July: Hearing

    Potential Settlement Period

  • 2017 Guidance Chuck Eldred

    Executive Vice President and CFO

  • Consolidated Earnings Guidance Range (Ongoing)

    20

    $1.77 Consolidated EPS $1.87

    PNM $1.30- $1.37

    TNMP $0.51 - $0.53

    Corp/Other ($0.04) – ($0.03)

    2016 Narrowed Earnings Guidance(1)

    2017 Earnings Guidance Midpoint: $1.82

    (1) 2016 Ongoing earnings guidance originally $1.55 - $1.76. Narrowed to $1.55 - $1.65 on August 4, 2016 and

    $1.60 - $1.65 on December 13, 2016

    $1.60 Consolidated EPS $1.65

  • New Mexico Economic Conditions

    21

    2017 Load Projection (1.0%) – 0%(1) 2017 Expected Customer Growth 0.7%

    (1)Weather-normalized

    0

    100,000

    200,000

    300,000

    400,000

    500,000

    600,000

    4,000

    5,000

    6,000

    7,000

    8,000

    9,000

    10,000

    PNM Customer Counts and Retail Energy Sales

    Energy Sales Customers

    Ener

    gy S

    ales

    (GW

    h) Total Custom

    ers

    -1%

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Oct. 2016

    Employment Growth Rates New Mexico and Albuquerque Metro

    (Year-end measurement, except 2016)

    New Mexico Albuquerque Metro

  • PNM Guidance (Ongoing)

    22

    PNM Ongoing EPS

    2016E – 2017E Key Performance Drivers Year-over-Year ∆ EPS

    Retail rate relief $0.26 Restructuring cost savings $0.09 - $0.10 Transmission $0.04 - $0.06 AFUDC $0.04 - $0.06 Palo Verde Unit 3 market prices $0.03 Interest expense savings $0.02 2016 weather $0.02 Outage costs $0.01 - $0.02 Load ($0.05) - $0.00 Q2 2016 interest income from IRS, net of fees ($0.02) Palo Verde Nuclear Decommissioning Trust gains ($0.05) FERC Generation Navopache contract ($0.06) O&M increases ($0.07) - ($0.05) Depreciation and property tax ($0.08) - ($0.06)

    2015 2016E 2017E

    $1.18 $1.10 - $1.13 $1.30 - $1.37

  • Texas Economic Conditions

    23

    2017 Load Projection 2% - 3%(1) 2017 Expected End User Growth 1.6%

    (1)Weather-normalized

    120,000

    140,000

    160,000

    180,000

    200,000

    220,000

    240,000

    260,000

    3,000

    3,500

    4,000

    4,500

    5,000

    5,500

    6,000

    6,500

    7,000

    TNMP End User Counts and Retail Energy Sales

    Energy Sales Customers

    Ener

    gy S

    ales

    (GW

    h)

    Total End Users

    -1%

    1%

    3%

    5%

    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Oct. 2016

    Employment Growth Rates Texas and Dallas Metro

    (Year-end measurement, except 2016)

    Texas Dallas Metro

  • TNMP Guidance (Ongoing)

    24

    $0.52

    2015 2016E 2017E

    $0.51 - $0.53 $0.52 - $0.53

    TNMP Ongoing EPS

    2016E – 2017E Key Performance Drivers Year-over-Year ∆ EPS

    TCOS rate relief $0.04 - $0.05

    Load $0.02 - $0.03

    2016 weather $0.01

    O&M increases ($0.01) - $0.00

    Interest expense ($0.02)

    Depreciation and property tax ($0.06) - ($0.05)

  • Corporate and Other Guidance (Ongoing)

    25

    ($0.06)

    2015 2016E 2017E

    ($0.02) – ($0.01) ($0.04) – ($0.03)

    Corporate and Other Ongoing EPS

    2016E – 2017E Key Performance Drivers and Assumptions Year-over-Year ∆ EPS

    Westmoreland financing agreements ($0.02)

  • EBITDA and Quarterly Earnings Distribution Guidance (Ongoing)

    26

    Ongoing EBITDA (In millions)

    2016E Midpoint 2017E Midpoint Consolidated PNM Resources $541 $589

    PNM $360 $396

    TNMP $156 $162

    16% 24%

    47%

    13%

    Q1 2017E Q2 2017E Q3 2017E Q4 2017E

    2017 Quarterly Ongoing Earnings Distribution

  • Earnings Growth

    27

    Allowed Return /

    Equity Ratio

    2017 Guidance Midpoint 2018 Earnings Potential 2019 Earnings Potential Avg Rate

    Base Return EPS Avg Rate

    Base EPS Avg Rate Base EPS

    PNM Retail / Renewables 9.575% / 50% $2.3 B 9.3% $1.32 $2.5 B $1.47 $2.5 B $1.46

    Supreme Court Appeal

    $0 - $150 M $0.00 - $0.09

    PV3 ($0.12) Included in PNM Retail Included in PNM Retail

    PNM FERC 10% / ~50% $180 M 7.9% $0.09 $245 M $0.11 - $0.14 $275 M $0.12 - $0.16

    Items not in Rates ($0.03) ($0.03) - $0.00 ($0.03) - $0.00

    Total PNM $2.6 B $1.33 $2.7 B $1.55 - $1.61 $2.7 - $2.9 B $1.55 - $1.71 TNMP 10.125% / 45% $815 M 10.125% $0.52 $890 M $0.53 $965 M $0.56

    Corporate/Other ($0.03) ($0.06) - ($0.04) ($0.06) - ($0.04)

    Total PNM Resources $3.4 B $1.82 $3.6 B $2.02 - $2.10 $3.7 - $3.9 B $2.05 - $2.23

    • Potential Earnings Power supports 2015 – 2019 earnings growth target of 7% - 8% PNM growth achieved through new retail rates implemented October 2016 and 2018 General

    Rate Case filing o Palo Verde Unit 3 added to rate base in 2018 o 2019 reflects potential recovery of NMPRC disallowed assets through New Mexico

    Supreme Court appeal TNMP growth achieved through continuing capital investment and recovery through general

    rate case and TCOS filings Corporate/Other includes Westmoreland financing

    This table is not intended to represent a forward-looking projection of 2018 - 2019 earnings guidance. Refer to Slide 39 for additional details and disclosures.

  • Capital Forecast

    28

    $96

    $157

    $136

    $15

    2020

    $404

    $249

    2016 – 2020 Total Capital Plan: $2.3B

    PNM 2015-2020 Rate Base CAGR: 4 - 6%(1) TNMP 2015-2020 Rate Base CAGR: 8 - 10%

    (1)Includes the addition of PV3 to rate base in 2018, which does not have associated capital spending. (2)The additional 65 MW ownership of San Juan Unit 4 included in the December BART approval is part of Corporate/Other for 2016-2017 and PNM beginning in 2018. Amounts may not add due to rounding.

    $198 $221$238 $243

    $292

    $138 $112 $119

    $120

    $170

    $119 $163

    $125

    $151

    $134

    $137

    $36

    $57

    $30

    $15

    2016 2017 2018 2019

    (In millions)

    PNM Generation PNM T&D TNMP Corporate/Other Depreciation

    $573

    $516

    $395 $435

    Palo Verde Unit 3

    added to rate base

    (2)

    Expect future refinements

    Chart1

    2020

    $249

    Depreciation

    249

    Sheet1

    2020

    PNM Generation

    PNM T&D

    PNM Renewables

    TNMP

    Other

    Total

    Depreciation249

    Check

    Chart1

    2016

    2017

    2018

    2019

    Depreciation

    197.601

    220.966

    237.566

    242.764

    Sheet1

    20162017201820192020

    PNM Generation

    PNM T&D

    PNM Renewables

    TNMP

    Other

    Total

    Depreciation198221238243249

    Check

  • Liquidity, Capital Structure and Credit Ratings

    29

    Available Liquidity

    PNM TNMP Corporate/

    Other PNM Resources

    Consolidated Financing Capacity as of November 30, 2016: (In millions) Total Capacity(1) $450.0 $75.0 $300.0 $825.0 Less short-term debt(1) and LOC balances $34.9 $0.1 $184.6 $219.6 Plus invested cash - - 1.5 1.5

    Total Available Liquidity $415.1 $74.9 $116.9 $606.9

    Target regulatory cap structures: 50/50 at PNM, 55/45 at TNMP

    Moody’s S&P

    PNM Resources Baa3(2) BBB+(2)

    PNM(4) Baa2 BBB+(3)

    TNMP A1(4) A(4)

    Issuer Outlook Stable Stable

    (1)Excludes intercompany debt and term loans (2) Issuer/Corporate rating (3) Senior unsecured (4) Senior secured (5) Reflects estimated principle payments under the Westmoreland financing agreements

    Strong liquidity and balanced capital structure supports investment grade credit metrics at Moody’s and S&P

    PNMR FFO-to-Debt is maintained well within Moody’s Baa investment grade target range of 13% to 22%

    $198 $40 $3

    $682

    $100

    $859

    $172

    $233

    2016-2018 2019-2020 Beyond 2020

    Long-term Debt Maturities Principal Amounts

    (in millions)

    Corporate PNM TNMP(5)

  • $1.31 $1.41 $1.49

    $1.60 $1.77 $1.64 $1.65

    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

    Ongoing EPS

    $1.87

    Deliver Above Industry Average Earnings and Dividend Growth

    30

    (1) Assumes mid-point of 2017 guidance (2) Indicative annual rate 2012 – 2015 Ongoing EPS represents actual results 2016E Ongoing EPS represents ongoing earnings guidance of $1.60 - $1.65 per diluted share 2017E Ongoing EPS represents ongoing earnings guidance of $1.77 - $1.87 per diluted share

    • Annual common stock dividend raised by 10% to $0.97(2) per share in December 2016

    • Expect above industry average dividend growth in the future while targeting the 50% - 60% payout ratio range

    • Next dividend review in December 2017

    $0.58 Feb ‘12

    $0.66 Feb ‘13

    $0.74 Dec ‘13

    $0.80 Dec ‘14

    $0.88 Dec ‘15

    $0.97 Dec ‘16

    Indicated Annual Dividends

    • 7% - 8% Earnings Growth 2015 - 2019

    53%(1) payout ratio

  • Wrap Up Pat Vincent-Collawn

    Chairman, President and CEO

  • PNM Resources: Staying Focused in a Changing Environment

    32

    Staying focused in order to deliver above industry average earnings and dividend growth • Maintain high reliability and enhance the customer experience • File rate cases to minimize regulatory lag, realize earnings

    potential and maintain credit ratings • Work with community partners to enhance economic

    development and regulatory support Integrated Resource Plan

    • Filing represents milestone in determination of PNM’s future generation portfolio

    PNM Resources Sustainability Portal

  • Albuquerque Gas & Electric Company formed (1917)

    Bernalillo Sawmill Power Plant generated 2,500 KW (1927)

    Public Service Company of New Mexico formed (1946)

    Celebrating 100 years of serving New Mexico (2017)

    2017 Marks 100 Years of PNM History

    33

  • Questions & Answers

  • Appendix

  • 2017 Assumptions

    36

    amounts shown are before tax

    PNM TNMP Corporate/ Other

    2017 weather $0 (normal) $0 (normal) N/A

    Load (1.0%) to 0.0%

    1% = $0.05 2.0% to 3.0% 1% = $0.01

    N/A

    Palo Verde Unit 3 sales price ($/MWh) ~$29 N/A N/A

    Outage costs $14M - $16M N/A N/A

    PV3 Nuclear Decommissioning Trust gains $10M - $12M N/A N/A

    Anticipated effective tax rate 36.9% 36.8% 54.3%

    Average PNM Resources diluted shares outstanding 80.0M 80.0M 80.0M

  • PNM Plant Outages and Retirement Schedule

    37

    2016 - 2017 Planned Outage Schedule

    Palo Verde

    Unit Duration in Days Time

    Period

    3 34 Q4 2016

    2 34 Q2 2017

    1 34 Q4 2017

    Four Corners

    Unit Duration in Days Time

    Period

    4 10 Q2 2017

    5 10 Q2 2017

    5 95 Q3-Q4 2017

    San Juan

    Unit Time Period

    2 12/31/2017

    3 12/31/2017

    2017 Scheduled Unit Retirements

  • 2016 Consolidated Earnings Guidance Range (Ongoing)

    38

    $1.60 Consolidated EPS $1.65

    PNM $1.10 - $1.13

    TNMP $0.52 - $0.53

    Corp/Other ($0.02) – ($0.01)

    2016 Narrowed Earnings Guidance(1)

    (1) 2016 Ongoing earnings guidance originally $1.55 - $1.76. Tightened to $1.55 - $1.65 on August 4, 2016 and

    $1.60 - $1.65 on December 13, 2016

  • 2017 - 2019 Potential Earnings Power

    39

    Allowed Return /

    Equity Ratio

    2017 Guidance Midpoint 2018 Earnings Potential 2019 Earnings Potential Avg Rate

    Base Return EPS Avg Rate

    Base EPS Avg Rate

    Base EPS

    PNM Retail (1) 9.575% / 50% $2.3 B 9.3% $1.32 $2.4 B $1.42 $2.4 B $1.41

    Supreme Court Appeal (2) $0 - $150 M $0.00 - $0.09

    PNM Renewables (3) 9.575% / 50% $95 M 9.575% $0.06 $90 M $0.05 $85 M $0.05

    PNM FERC (4) 10% / ~50% $180 M 7.9% $0.09 $245 M $0.11 - $0.14 $275 M $0.12 - $0.16

    PV3 (5) ($0.12) Included in PNM Retail Included in PNM Retail

    Items not in Rates (6) ($0.03) ($0.03) - $0.00 ($0.03) - $0.00

    Total PNM $2.6 B $1.33 $2.7 B $1.55 - $1.61 $2.7 - $2.9 B $1.55 - $1.71

    TNMP (7) 10.125% / 45% $815 M 10.125% $0.52 $890 M $0.53 $965 M $0.56

    Corporate/Other (8) ($0.03) ($0.06) - ($0.04) ($0.06) - ($0.04)

    Total PNM Resources $3.4 B $1.82 $3.6 B $2.02 - $2.10 $3.7 - $3.9 B $2.05 - $2.23

    (1) Recently authorized 9.575% ROE has been used for all forecasted years. (2) Reflects a range of outcomes for the New Mexico Supreme Court appeal of the August 2015 General Rate Case final order. For purposes of writing down the value of the

    assets under appeal at Sept. 30, 2016, a minimum 15-month appeal timeframe was used. 2019 average rate base presented includes: PV2 64MW Acquisition Adjustment (~$75M), PV2 Leasehold Improvements (~$25M) and Balanced Draft Technology (~$50M).

    (3) PNM Renewables reflect assets collected through the Renewable Rate Rider. (4) PNM FERC earnings potential reflects a return of 7-9% versus the allowed return of 10%, as FERC formula rate methodology uses prior year average rate base and provides

    for mid-year rate increases. (5) 2017 Earnings Potential assumes a forward market price of $29/MWh; a price of $44/MWh is required to break even. PV3 is included in PNM rates beginning in 2018. (6) Consists primarily of Palo Verde Nuclear Decommissioning Trust gains and losses, AFUDC, certain incentive compensation, earnings in 2017 associated with the assets

    previously allocated to the Navopache contract, and the 65MW ownership of San Juan Unit 4 beginning in 2018. (7) TNMP Earnings Potential includes $0.02 of Competitive Transition Charge recovery in 2017 and 2018 and $0.01 in 2019. (8) Corporate/Other includes earnings associated with the 65MW ownership of San Juan Unit 4 before PNM assumes ownership in 2018,

    short and intermediate term bank debt, and the net impact of Westmoreland financing through NM Capital Utility Corporation.

    This table is not intended to represent a forward-looking projection of 2018 - 2019 earnings guidance.

  • New Mexico Public Regulation Commissioners

    40

    District Name Term Ends Party

    District 1 Karen Montoya, Vice Chair 2016(1) Democrat

    District 2 Patrick Lyons 2018 Republican

    District 3 Valerie Espinoza, Chairman 2016(1) Democrat

    District 4 Lynda Lovejoy 2018 Democrat

    District 5 Sandy Jones 2018 Democrat

    (1) The terms for Karen Montoya and Valerie Espinoza expire in 2016. Valerie Espinoza was re-elected to a term ending in 2020. Cynthia Hall, Democrat, was elected to the District 1 seat with a term ending 2020 after defeating Karen Montoya in the primary.

    NMPRC Districts and PNM Service Areas

  • Texas Public Utility Commissioners

    41

    Commissioners are appointed by Governor of Texas. Length of term is determined by the Governor.

    Name Term Began Term Ends Party

    Donna Nelson Chairman

    Aug. 2008 Sept. 2021 Republican

    Kenneth Anderson Sept. 2008 Aug. 2017 Republican

    Brandy Marty Marquez Aug. 2013 Aug. 2019 Republican

  • PNM 2016 General Rate Case Final Order

    42

    Key Rate Case Elements (PNM Retail Share, net of ADIT)

    Commission Order

    Original Request

    Impact to Rate Increase

    ROE 9.575% 10.5% ($17) M

    Rate Base:

    Palo Verde Unit 2 lease purchase (64 MW) $55 M(1) $153 M(2) ($15) M

    Leasehold improvements and common plant associated with the 64 MWs of previously leased Palo Verde Unit 2 capacity

    Disallowed $26 M ($4) M

    Balanced Draft Technology Disallowed $39 M ($5) M

    Five months of CWIP $55 M $55 M No adjustment

    Pre-Paid pension asset $83 M $83 M No adjustment

    Other Revenue Requirements:

    Depreciation Rates $14.2 M $20.6 M ($6.4) M

    Palo Verde Lease and Property Tax Expense (remaining 114 MW of leased capacity) $19.5 M $19.5 M

    No adjustment

    NMPRC approved final order Sept. 28, 2016: • Non-fuel revenue increase of $61.2M versus $121.5M request • Retail rate base of $2,263M versus $2,458M request

    (1) Reflects 13-month average rate base, equivalent to $1,306/kW (2) Reflects period-end rate base, equivalent to $2,500/kW

  • New Mexico Supreme Court Appeal

    43

    Appealed Item Conclusion Resulting Impact Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station:

    64MW Unit 2 Capacity Purchase

    and

    Units 1 and 2 Lease Extensions

    Purchase deemed imprudent

    Extension deemed imprudent

    Fair market value of purchase disallowed; leasehold

    improvements rate base disallowed; future responsibility for decommissioning shifted to

    shareholders

    San Juan Generating Station

    Balanced Draft Air permit considered

    insufficient justification and investment deemed imprudent

    Rate base disallowed

    • PNM filed Notice of Appeal with New Mexico Supreme Court on September 30, 2016 • PNM filed Statement of Issues on October 26, 2016:

    Note: At September 30, 2016, the asset value of the Palo Verde and balanced draft investments pending appeal with the New Mexico Supreme Court were reduced by $6.8 million pre-tax to reflect a minimum of fifteen months disallowed recovery during appeal.

    • No statutory timeline; New Mexico Supreme Court to set calendar for remaining process

  • PNM Residential Affordability

    44

    0.0%

    0.5%

    1.0%

    1.5%

    2.0%

    2.5%

    3.0%

    3.5%

    4.0%

    4.5%

    Est.

    Aver

    age

    2015

    Res

    iden

    tial E

    lect

    ric B

    ill

    Es.t

    2015

    Med

    ian

    Hous

    ehol

    d In

    com

    e

    PNM's Residential Affordability Remains Below the National Average

    Sources: EIA Form 826, US Census Bureau

    U.S. Average: 2.4%

    PNM bills reflect current approved rates (2016) and proposed rates filed under the 2018 General Rate Case. All others reflect U.S. Energy Information Administration's Forecasted Residential Rate increases through 2015.

  • Regulatory Update

    45

    Filing Action Timing Docket No. NMPRC:

    2018 General Rate Case Filed December 7, 2016 Rates expected to be implemented January 1, 2018

    16-00276-UT

    AMI Suspension lifted December 6, 2016

    Hearing scheduled to begin February 27, 2017 15-00312-UT

    August 2015 General Rate Case

    Appealed to New Mexico Supreme Court on September 30, 2016

    Statement of Issues filed by PNM and cross-appellants; pending scheduling by court

    No docket

    FERC: No outstanding filings

    TNMP: No outstanding filings

  • PNM San Juan Generating Station Ownership and Participants

    46

    Unit Total MW PNM MW

    PNM Ownership Other Participants/Ownership

    1 340 170 50% Tucson Electric 50% (170 MW) 2 340 170 50% Tucson Electric 50% (170 MW)

    3 497 248 50% Southern California Power Authority 41.8% (208 MW) Tri-State 8.2% (41 MW)

    4 507 195 38.457%

    M-S-R Public Power Agency 28.8% (146 MW) City of Anaheim 10.04% (51 MW) City of Farmington 8.475% (43 MW) Los Alamos County 7.2% (36.5 MW) Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems (UAMPS) 7.028% (35.5 MW)

    Total 1,684 783

    Unit Owner 2018 MW % 1 PNM

    Tucson Electric Power Company 170 170

    20.1 20.1

    4 PNM City of Farmington Los Alamos County UAMPS PNMR Development Company

    327 43

    36.5 35.5 65

    38.6 5.1 4.3 4.2 7.7

    Total 847 100.0

    Exiting Participants: Southern California Power Authority Tri-State

    M-S-R Public Power Agency City of Anaheim

    Current Ownership

    Ownership Restructuring Changes

  • PNM Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station Unit 1 and 2 Leases

    47

    MW Owned vs. Leased

    Leases • Unit 1: January 15, 2015; exercised option to extend leases to 2023 • Unit 2: January 15, 2016; exercised right to purchase 3 leases and option to extend one lease to 2024

    • Total PV Unit 1 - $16.5M • Total PV Unit 2 - $1.6M

    Yearly Payment Amounts

    Unit 1

    Owned 2.3% 30 MW

    Leased 7.9% 104 MW

    Total 10.2% 134 MW

    Unit 2

    Owned 9.5% 124 MW

    Leased 0.7% 10 MW

    Total 10.2% 134 MW

  • PNM Investment in Renewable Energy

    48

    Portfolio Standard as a % of Retail Sales

    15% 2015

    20% 2020

    Renewable Rider Collection Methodology

    Recovery of renewable investments and REC purchases permitted

    through Renewable Energy Rider

    New Mexico Renewable Energy Act Streamlined proceedings for approval of utilities’ renewable energy procurement

    plans

    Provides for recovery of program costs under approved procurement plan

    Current Renewable Resources

    PNM-Owned Renewable Resources

    107 MW of solar capacity(1) Solar battery storage facility

    Purchase Power Agreements (PPA) 204 MW PPA with NextEra Energy’s New Mexico Wind Energy Center

    102 MW PPA with NextEra Energy’s Red Mesa 4 MW PPA with Dale Burgett Geothermal Plant

    Customer-Owned Solar Facilities

    57.3 MW of solar capacity

    (1) The 40 MW of PNM-owned solar capacity placed in service in 2015 is being recovered through base rates rather than through the Renewable Energy Rider.

  • PNM Diversified Generation Portfolio: Capacity

    49

    Coal 29%

    Nuclear 15%

    Natural Gas 40%

    Renewables 16%

    Capacity 2018 Forecasted Generation Mix

    Coal 35%

    Nuclear 15%

    Natural Gas 35%

    Renewables 15%

    Capacity 2,787 MW As of 12/31/2015

    Includes capacity from Purchased Power Agreements

  • PNM Diversified Generation Portfolio: Energy

    50

    Coal 50%

    Nuclear 31%

    Natural Gas 12%

    Renewables 7%

    Energy 10,763 GWh

    Based on 12 months ending 12/31/15

    Coal 44%

    Nuclear 29%

    Natural Gas 17%

    Renewables 10%

    Energy 2018 Forecasted Generation Mix

    Includes energy from Purchased Power Agreements

  • Impact of Environmental Regulation- SJGS

    51

    San Juan Generating Station Estimated Compliance Costs (PNM Share) Comments

    Clean Air Act – Regional Haze (State Alternative) – SNCR Minimal remaining costs

    Installation of SNCR technology on Units 1 and 4 completed in 2016; retirement of Units 2 and 3 scheduled for Dec. 31, 2017.

    Clean Air Act – National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)

    Included in SNCR

    Balanced draft will assist with NAAQS compliance. On Oct. 1, 2015, EPA published the new primary and secondary ozone NAAQS of 70 ppb (from 75 ppb). States and tribes submitted area designations for ozone attainment/non-attainment areas by Oct. 1, 2016. By June 1, 2017, EPA will respond to state and tribal recommendations. The state has designated San Juan County in attainment for ozone.

    Mercury Rules (MATS) None to minimal Testing shows 99% or greater removal.

    Resource Conservation and Recovery Act – Coal Ash

    Minimal to some exposure

    EPA published the final coal combustion residuals (CCR) rule on April 20, 2015. The rule regulates CCR as a non-hazardous waste under Subtitle D of RCRA. SJGS operations are in compliance with the CCR rule which became effective Oct. 19, 2015. The rule does not apply to placement of coal ash in mines – Office of Surface Mining (OSM) is expected to issue its own proposed rule (perhaps in 2016 but likely later) and OSM will be influenced by EPA’s rule.

    Clean Water Act – 316(b) Cooling Water Intake Structures

    Minimal to some exposure

    On Sept. 22, 2015, EPA granted approval to terminate SJGS’s National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (“NPDES”) permit. Although SJGS has been a zero discharge facility for several years, EPA required the plant to maintain a NPDES permit. The cooling water intake structure rule still applies as the plant operates under EPA’s NPDES Multi-Sector General Stormwater Permit. PNM is currently working with EPA Region 6 to address any requirements with the next permit renewal which could be issued as soon as 2020.

    Effluent Limitation Guidelines (Wastewater Discharge)

    None to minimal exposure EPA published the final Steam Effluent Guidelines Rule on September 30, 2015. Because SJGS is zero discharge for wastewater and no longer holds an NPDES process water permit, minimum to no requirements are expected.

    Clean Power Plan (CPP) Slight exposure

    On Oct. 23, 2015, EPA published the CPP in the Federal Register under section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act. SJGS and PNM’s other affected units in NM appear to be well positioned to assist the state in meeting the rule’s requirements. Supreme Court stayed the rule pending judicial review by the D.C. Circuit Court. Oral arguments were held Sept. 27, 2016; decision expected in 2017 with Supreme Court appeal and ruling likely to follow.

  • Impact of Environmental Regulation- Four Corners

    52

    Four Corners (Units 4 and 5) Estimated Compliance Costs (PNM Share) Comments

    Clean Air Act – Regional Haze – SCR $94M

    Final BART determination filed with EPA on Dec. 30, 2013. Impact to PNM: SCR controls for NOx on Units 4 & 5 by July 31, 2018.

    Clean Air Act – National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) Some to significant exposure

    On Oct. 1, 2015, EPA published the new primary and secondary NAAQS for ozone. The standard decreased from 75 ppb to 70 ppb. ). States and tribes submitted area designations for ozone attainment/non-attainment areas by Oct. 1, 2016.By June 1, 2017, EPA(1) will respond to state and tribal recommendations. The state has designated San Juan County in attainment for ozone.

    Mercury Rules (MATS) Slight exposure APS has determined that no additional equipment will be required.

    Resource Conservation and Recovery Act – Coal Ash Slight exposure

    EPA published the final coal combustion residuals (CCR) rule on April 20, 2015. The rule regulates CCR as a non-hazardous waste under Subtitle D of RCRA. APS will be required to make some modifications to their ash handling operations.

    Clean Water Act – 316(b) Cooling Water Intake Structures Some exposure

    APS does not expect the cost impacts of this rule to be material and is currently in discussions with EPA Region 9, the NPDES permit writer for Four Corners, to determine the scope of requirements which will dictate the costs to comply.

    Effluent Limitation Guidelines (Wastewater Discharge) Some exposure

    EPA published the final Steam Effluent Guidelines Rule on Sept. 30, 2015. Effluent limitation guidelines restrictions will become effective with the next NPDES permit renewal, which occur in 5-year intervals that arise between 2018 and 2023. Until a draft NPDES permit for Four Corners is proposed, APS is uncertain what will be required to control these discharges in compliance with the finalized effluent limitations at that facility.

    Clean Power Plan (CPP) (2) Some to significant exposure

    On Oct. 23, 2015, EPA published the CPP in the Federal Register under section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act. Supreme Court stayed the rule pending judicial review of the rule by the D.C. Circuit Court. Oral arguments were held Sept. 27, 2016; decision expected in 2017 with Supreme Court appeal and ruling likely to follow.

    (1) NMED does not have jurisdiction over Navajo Nation. (2) EPA has proposed to determine that it is necessary or appropriate to impose a federal plan on the Navajo Nation to comply with CPP.

  • Investor Relations Contact Information

    53

    Jimmie Blotter Assistant Treasurer Director, Investor Relations and Shareholder Services U.S. 1-505-241-2227 [email protected] Lisa Goodman Investor Relations Manager U.S. 1-505-241-2160 [email protected]

    Slide Number 1Slide Number 2AgendaSafe Harbor Statement and Non-GAAP Financial MeasuresSlide Number 5PNM Resources Strategic DirectionPNM Resources Strategic GoalsPNM Resources: Staying Focused in a Changing EnvironmentPNM RegulatoryTNMP RegulatoryPNM Customer FocusPNM 2017 Integrated Resource PlanSlide Number 13PNM 2018 General Rate CasePNM 2018 General Rate Case DriversPNM 2018 General Rate Case Energy Sales and LCFCPNM 2018 General Rate Case Bill ImpactPNM 2018 General Rate Case TimelineSlide Number 19Consolidated Earnings Guidance Range (Ongoing)New Mexico Economic ConditionsPNM Guidance (Ongoing)Texas Economic ConditionsTNMP Guidance (Ongoing)Corporate and Other Guidance (Ongoing)EBITDA and Quarterly Earnings Distribution Guidance (Ongoing)Earnings GrowthCapital ForecastLiquidity, Capital Structure and Credit RatingsDeliver Above Industry Average Earnings and Dividend GrowthSlide Number 31PNM Resources: Staying Focused in a Changing Environment2017 Marks 100 Years of PNM HistorySlide Number 34Slide Number 352017 AssumptionsPNM Plant Outages and Retirement Schedule2016 Consolidated Earnings Guidance Range (Ongoing)2017 - 2019 Potential Earnings PowerNew Mexico Public Regulation CommissionersTexas Public Utility CommissionersPNM 2016 General Rate Case Final Order New Mexico Supreme Court AppealPNM Residential AffordabilityRegulatory UpdatePNM San Juan Generating Station Ownership and ParticipantsPNM Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station Unit 1 and 2 LeasesPNM Investment in Renewable EnergyPNM Diversified Generation Portfolio: CapacityPNM Diversified Generation Portfolio: EnergyImpact of Environmental Regulation- SJGSImpact of Environmental Regulation- Four CornersInvestor Relations Contact Information