Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and...

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Transcript of Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and...

Page 1: Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and indivisible, and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development" (Preamble,
Page 2: Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and indivisible, and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development" (Preamble,

Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and indivisible, and

balance the three dimensions of sustainable development" (Preamble, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development)

• International trade is "an engine for inclusive economic growth and poverty reduction" that contributes to the promotion of sustainable development (para.79, the 2030 Agenda)

• Countries are encouraged to "integrate sustainable development in trade policy at all levels" (para.82, the Addis Ababa Action Agenda)

Page 3: Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and indivisible, and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development" (Preamble,

Trade has been an engine of economic growth…

Page 4: Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and indivisible, and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development" (Preamble,

58'557 1'130'641

2'140'703

4'322'609

9'223'169

18'817'705

0

2'000'000

4'000'000

6'000'000

8'000'000

10'000'000

12'000'000

14'000'000

16'000'000

18'000'000

20'000'000

1948

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

world merchandise exports in U$S current millions

World trade has been doubling every decade for the last four decades

Source UNCTAD stats

Page 5: Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and indivisible, and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development" (Preamble,

…and international trade increasingly contributes to GDP …

18

50.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Source: World Bank

Trade in goods as % of GDP

Page 6: Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and indivisible, and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development" (Preamble,

Source: UNCTAD stats

…developing countries´ trade has increased dramatically accounting now to roughly 45 % of world trade…

Page 7: Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and indivisible, and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development" (Preamble,

…and particularly by South - South trade…

Page 8: Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and indivisible, and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development" (Preamble,

..and this trade has contributed to poverty decline..

Page 9: Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and indivisible, and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development" (Preamble,

… but the speed of growth has slowed down…

Page 10: Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and indivisible, and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development" (Preamble,

10 Source: UNCTADstat database

Page 11: Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and indivisible, and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development" (Preamble,

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International trade of selected country groups, billion USD

Source: UNCTADstat database, based on statistics prepared by UNCTAD and WTO

Page 12: Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and indivisible, and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development" (Preamble,

World Trade in Goods (2014)

Page 13: Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and indivisible, and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development" (Preamble,

… and non-tariff measures determine the trade costs …

Page 14: Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and indivisible, and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development" (Preamble,

Trend: Tariffs vs non-tariff measures

2

3

4

5

6

Ta

riff

(%

)

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Nu

mb

er

of M

ea

su

res in

Fo

rce

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Non-Tariff Measures Applied Tariff MFN Tariff

Tariffs have gone down, non-tariff measures not so

Figure 5: Contrasting Trade Policies

Source: UNCTAD calculations based on UNCTAD TRAINS and WTO I-TIP data

Page 15: Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and indivisible, and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development" (Preamble,

Non-tariff measures (NTMs) are policy measures, other than ordinary customs tariffs, that can potentially have an economic effect on international trade NTMs directly or indirectly affect trade as: a) Non-tariff BARRIERS (e.g. quotas, price measures, etc. - regulated by WTO)

b) Technical measures to trade (e.g. SPS and TBT, partially addressed by WTO)

c) Administrative/procedural barriers to trade may be referred to as NTM

NTMs can be positive or negative on trade flows between countries

NTM

NTB

Page 16: Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and indivisible, and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development" (Preamble,

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How important are NTMs? Tariffs and non-tariff measures faced by SVEs

Trade restrictiveness faced by SVE exports

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Non-Agriculture Agriculture Overall

NTM

Tariff (2009)

Source: UNCTAD 2013

Page 17: Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and indivisible, and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development" (Preamble,

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Live Animal

Meats

Fish

Dairy Products

Other Animal Products

Live Plants

Vegetables

Fruits

Coffee/Tea/Spices

Cereals

Milling Products

Oil Seeds

Gums/Resins

Fats/Oils

Prepared Animal Products

Sugar

Cocoa

Prepared Cereals

Prepared Vegetables

Other Prepared Food

Beverages

Billion US$ Exports to the EU Export Loss

Trade Effects of NTMs can be quite relevant

No discrimination (mostly same measure for all countr.) Exports reduced by 3 per cent for all countries, and 5 per cent for LDCs for each additional SPS (UNCTAD, 2015)

Page 18: Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and indivisible, and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development" (Preamble,

Findings from the Report

Page 19: Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and indivisible, and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development" (Preamble,

To map out policy options in the complex web of

interlinkages between trade and sustainable

development

Page 20: Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and indivisible, and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development" (Preamble,

Countries aim at achieving the SDGs as an integrated agenda. This may call for a new approach to trade policymaking.

Economic

Environmental

Social

The 2030 Agenda aims at achieving this

Trade growth to contribute to economic growth and to enlarge the intersections of the three dimensions

Focus of trade policy to shift from a quantitative transformation (How much to trade) to a more qualitative one (How to trade)

What does it mean in practice to trade policymakers?

Sustainable Development

Page 21: Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and indivisible, and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development" (Preamble,

The report focuses on market access because…

Market access (e.g. customs tariffs and non-tariff

measures ) are formal and measurable elements of a country's trade policy

Market access has been the core component of trade agreements, which are important vehicles for making trade "equitable and mutually advantageous" (UNCTAD I, 1964)

Market access conditions significantly influence consumer welfare and economic viability of a country

Page 22: Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and indivisible, and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development" (Preamble,

Chapter I. Trade Policymaking and the SDGs An overview of how trade policy interacts with the determinants of sustainable development

Chapter II. Tariffs and the SDGs A preview of tariff-based global indicators for certain SDG targets

Chapter III. Non-tariff measures and the SDGs Why NTMs are key policy interfaces connecting the SDGs to trade

Chapter IV. Physical Market Access and Trade Costs Maritime connectivity to international markets as a complementary action for the trade-led inclusive growth

Page 23: Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and indivisible, and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development" (Preamble,

Mapping out the trade-SDG interactions

Economic

Environmental Social

SDG-enabling environment

National Trade Policy

Tariff

Tariff

NTMs to trading partners

NTMs to

trading partners

Public revenue (development

finance)

Connectivity to markets

Sustainable Development

Page 24: Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and indivisible, and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development" (Preamble,

: 1. Market access matters to the achievement of the SDGs Identify complementary actions (e.g. through inter-ministerial collaboration) to

enlarge the intersections between trade-led economic growth and social development and environmental sustainability

2. Improving connectivity to markets is an effective complementary action The global partnership to help low-income countries improve connectivity via e.g.

coordinated actions to increase investment in hard and soft infrastructure.

3. NTMs are major policy interfaces connecting the SDGs and trade

Increase transparency and policy coherence at: the national level (e.g. inter-ministerial coordination); the regional level (e.g. reducing regulatory distance among the members of a regional trade agreement); and the international level (e.g. global transparency and reviews on the impact of "SDG-enhancing" NTMs on trade).

Page 25: Decisions · 2016-04-26 · Decisions: • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) "are integrated and indivisible, and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development" (Preamble,

Thank you