2015 Global Economic Outlook

7/24/2019 2015 Global Economic Outlook

1/13

onstantinos Pappas

Alexandros Pappas

2015Global Economic Outlook:Better Than 2014 but Not By

Much


2/13

TheI.M.F. called global

growth !ediocre" in

#ctober in its latest

o$tloo% &ec$lar stagnation in

Ad'anced (cono!ies

re!ains a concern

(!erging Mar%etscan)t grow as *ast as

the+ $sed to witho$t

in*lation.


3/13


4/13

P$tin)s diplo!atic

approach to ,ri!ea raises

!an+ -$estions *or the

exportdependent

econo!+ which battles

thro$gh low oil prices

Is the /.&. reco'er+ d$rable

eno$gh to %eep *ederal *$nds

rate near ero in 2015

,hina *aces constr$ction

debt crisis i* the alread+

declining growth rate

doesn)t !eet its

expectations


5/13

er!an+)s c$rrentl+ worlds largest

s$rpl$s li%el+ to shrin% in 2015

3apan)s second increase in cons$!ption

taxes !a+ be postponed as its *irst

Phase bac%*ired in April

The new go'ern!ent has to *ace slow growth

and high in*lation while dealing with the

highest operational costs in atin A!erica

,an the /.K. shrin% the real estate

b$bble witho$t de*lating the econo!+


6/13

The global econo!+ is ta%ing longer than

expected to rec$perate *ro! the b$rsting o* the

debt b$bble d$ring the last decade.

+ears ago6 the IMF pro7ected that the world

econo!+ wo$ld be bac% on trac% b+ 20156

growing at 4.8 percent.


7/13

&o the IMF red$ced its *orecast *or 2015 global

growth to .2 percent.

9hile the /.&. !et the expectations the :;I,

nations


8/13

(xpect contin$ed dissonance a!ong econo!ic

polic+!a%ers in 2015.

>ext +ear6 the ($ropean ,entral :an% !a+ e!bar%

on its own -$antitati'e easing o'er the ob7ections

o* :$ndesban%.

Fights o'er taxing and spending will probabl+ heat

$p next +ear6 especiall+ in the e$ro one

er!an+)s insistence on a$sterit+ !a%es it hard

*or e$ro nations to spar% econo!ic growth


9/13

Will Ruia! an" #hina! clahe withtheir nei$hbor ecalate into arme"con%ict&

Will the Ebola e'i"emic break out o(

Wet )(rica on a lar$e cale& Will #hina nu* out +on$ ,on$!

"emocracy mo-ement&

Will Britih election in May increae'reure on the .nite" ,in$"om to"ro' out o( the Euro'ean .nion&

Will one o( the con%ict in the Mi""leEat boil o-er&

An+ one o* those co$ld !a%e

2015 a 'er+ $gl+ +ear.

eep an e+e on things that are

$n%nown and i!portant


10/13

Then again6 there co$ld be happ+

s$rprises.

The oil boom i a -ictory(or "rillin$ technolo$y

./ raie" "ometiccru"e oil 'ro"uction

more than 50 in ut 3year/

Buine i in a better'oition to lea" the

reco-ery #om'anie are ittin$ on

recor" amount o( cahbecaue o( the weak

"eman" o new

#a'ital'en"in$ is themost volatilesector of the

economy andoften what turns


11/13

Will 2015 be the year theederal Reserve !nally raise thefederal funds rate"

ederal #$en %ar&et'ommittee e($ects funds rateto reach 1.25) to 1.5)

*raders in the futures mar&et

are s&e$tical+ bettin, that thefunds rate will be only about0.5) by then.

-evaluin, is a mechanism to

$ush deation abroad


12/13

the traitacket o( a in$le currency're-ent weaker economie (rom"e'reciatin$ their currencie4 a way(or a nation with hi$h labor cot to

boot it e'ort an" uice iteconomy

) har' increae inconum'tion tae wallo'e"it economy thi 'rin$/ )

econ" one i che"ule" (or20154 but may eek to "elayit i( the economy remainweak #hina i u*erin$ it own"e%ation

Great 'en"in$ on 'lant an"e6ui'ment lea" to ece'ro"uction ca'acity4 whichencoura$e 'rice lahin$ that"etroy 'ro7tability

The "ownwar" 'reure on the


13/13

2015 coul" be lower

than it once wa but imo-in$ 8ORW)R9/

2015 Global Economic Outlook

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