2015 CBRE Cincinnati Multifamily Market Overview...Big Data - the numbers don’t lie The Survey...

2015 Multifamily Market OverviewPresented by Dave Lockard, CBRE Central Midwest Multifamily

2/11/2015

1

2CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015

MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW

2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKETAgenda

Big Data - the numbers don’t lie

The Survey says…

Sell! Sell! Sell!

If you build it, they will come

A peek into the future (including winning lottery numbers)

©2015, CBRE, Inc. We obtained the information contained herein from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we have not verified its accuracy and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is submitted subject to the possibility of errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, prior sale, lease or financing, or withdrawal without notice. We include projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates for example only, and they may not represent current or future performance of the property. You and your tax and legal advisors should conduct your own investigation of the property and transaction.

NATIONAL & LOCAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

Big Data, the numbers don’t lie

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The Price of Natural Gas2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

Source: NASDAQ



The Price of Natural Crude Oil2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

Source: NASDAQ

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The Price of Coffee2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

Source: NASDAQ

+

+

+

+

+

=



Commercial Real Estate Cycle2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

Source: CBRE

Phase IIIOversupply

Phase IIExpansion

Phase IVRecession

Phase IRecovery

Above Long-TermAvg. Occupancy

Below Long-TermAvg. Occupancy

RentsIncreasing

RentsDecreasing

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Where is Cincinnati in RE Investment Cycle?2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

Source: CBRE

Optimism

Excitement

Thrill

Euphoria

Anxiety

Denial

Fear

Desperation

Panic

Capitulation

Despondency

Point of Maximum Financial Opportunity

Depression

Hope

Relief

Optimism

Point of Maximum Financial Risk

CINCINNATI, OH



Fundamentals and Activity are Strong in All Asset Types2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

Source: Real Capital Analytics as of 3Q 2014

Cap rates continue to decline, albeit at slower paces

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Cap

Rat

e

Industrial 7.2%

Office-Sub7.1%Retail6.8%

Office-CBD5.6%

Multi-housing5.9%

Transaction volume increased year over year

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Tra

nsa

ctio

n V

olu

me

($ i

n b

illi

on

s)

Individual Portfolio Entity

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Key Rates – Current & Historical

2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

1/2008 1/2009 1/2010 1/2011 1/2012 1/2013 1/2014

Prime Rate 7.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25%

5-Year Treasuries 2.84% 1.86% 2.63% 2.13% 0.88% 0.89% 1.55% 1.52%

10-Year Treasuries 3.63% 2.83% 3.38% 3.41% 2.00% 2.00% 2.73% 2.00%

LIBOR (3-mo) 3.89% 2.83% 0.25% 0.30% 0.56% 0.30% 0.24% 0.25%

Source: *Bloomberg.com as of 02/09/2015 @ 8:01 AM and Bankrate.com

TODAY



10-Year Treasuries2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

Source: Federal Reserve Bank, data through 02.02.15

0

2

4

6

Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14

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Demographic Snapshot - Greater Cincinnati MSA2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

Source: Nielsen, 02/2015

POPULATION GROWTH

1,9

94

,83

8

2,1

14

,58

0

2,1

48

,09

4

2,1

81

,16

0

1,500,000

1,750,000

2,000,000

2,250,000

2000 Census 2010 Census 2015Estimated

2020Projected

2015 ESTIMATED INCOME (Based on 841,338 Households)

23%

23%31%

13%10% ≤ $24,999

$25,000 - $49,999

$50,000 - $99,999

$100,000 - $149,999

≥ $150,0000

2015 ESTIMATED AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE

2.50 Persons

2015 EST POPULATION BY AGE (Based on 2,148,094 Pop.)

24%

9%

13%27%

25%

2%

Under 18

18-24

25-34

35-54

55-84

85+



Jobs –U. S. Unemployment Rate


Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate as of 12/2014

Ohio 4.8%

Nationwide 5.6%

Kentucky 5.7%

Indiana 5.8%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, seasonally adjusted data through Dec 2014; ** GALLUP, “The Big Lie: 5.6% Unemployment by Jim Clifton, 2/3/15”

125

130

135

140

145


Mill

ions

Total Historical Employment

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4


Historical Employment – % Change Y-o-Y

“Gallup defines a good job as 30+ hours per week for an organization that provides a regular paycheck. Right now, the U.S. is delivering at a staggeringly low rate of 44%, which is the number of full-time jobs as a percent of the adult population, 18 years and older. We need that to be 50% and a bare minimum of 10 million new, good jobs to replenish America’s middle class.” **

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U.S. Economic Outlook2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

Source: CBRE Research (employment forecasts); Oxford Economics (GDP forecasts as of 01.13.15)

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

03 07 11 15

Employment Forecasts - Change Y-o-Y 2014 = 1.8%

2015 = 2.1%

About 245,000 jobs/month

GDP Outlook

2014 = 2.4%

2015 = 3.3%

2016 = 2.9%

2017 = 2.7%

2018 = 2.7%



Jobs – Cincinnati MSA Unemployment Rate2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian labor force and unemployment by state and metropolitan area”

Not Seasonally Adjusted

6.1%

4.3%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Dec

'05

Dec

'06

Dec

'07

Dec

'08

Dec

'09

Dec

'10

Dec

'11

Dec

'12

Dec

'13

Dec

'14

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Jobs – Comparative MSA Unemployment Rates2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian labor force and unemployment by state and metropolitan area”

Not Seasonally Adjusted, as of December 2014p

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%

Detroit, MI

Cleveland, OH

Indianapolis, IN

Lexington, KY

Toledo, OH

Dayton, OH

Cincinnati, OH

Akron, OH

Springfield, OH

Columbus, OH

6.7%

6.0%

5.4%

4.9%

4.8%

4.5%

4.3%

4.3%

4.1%

3.7%



Greater Cincinnati Net Job Growth2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

(60,000)

(50,000)

(40,000)

(30,000)

(20,000)

(10,000)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors

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Net Job Growth – Peer City Comparison2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2014p 2015p 2016p 2017p 2018p 2019p

Cincinnati, OH

Columbus, OH

Indianapolis, IN

Nashville, TN

Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors



Cincinnati Dayton Growth Corridor2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET 1

Ohio’s largest single-site employer

+ 27,500 employees

Wright-Patterson Air Force Base | Fairborn, Ohio

2 Austin Landing Retail

Teradata, Motoman, Thompson Hine, Lexis Nexis, and Kettering Health

Austin Road

3 Home to 10 Fortune 500 companies

Atrium Medical Center - 310 bed community hospital

Middletown

4 Outlet mall, Industrial parks, and Miami Valley Gaming

Monroe

5 $350,000,000 mixed-use development

West Chester Hospital continued expansion

Liberty Center

6 Distribution centerpiece

IKEA, Frontgate, GE Aviation, P&G, AK Steel, and more

West Chester – Union Centre Boulevard

1

2

3

4

5

7

6

7 $600 Million local payroll

$200 Million plant retrofit underway

GE | Evendale

I-75, “The Healthcare Highway:”• UC Hospital• Children’s Hospital• Kettering Health Network• Atrium Medical Center

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General Electric - coming to The Banks2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET



Cincinnati Red’s Host 2015 All Star Games2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

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No significant move to Homebuying yetTenure shift and demographics continue to support fundamentals


Source: CBRE Research . U.S. Census Bureau data through Q4 2014

Rental Tenure - % of Renter Households to Total

30.8

36.0

30

32

34

36

38

Q1 1965 Q1 1975 Q1-1985 Q1 1995 Q1 2005 Q1 2015

1965-2014 Average = 34.6%

Q4 85 – Q2 94 Average = 36.0%



Greater Cincinnati MSA Homeownership Rate2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

56.0%

58.0%

60.0%

62.0%

64.0%

66.0%

68.0%

70.0%

20121Q

20122Q

20123Q

20124Q

20131Q

20132Q

20133Q

20134Q

20141Q

20142Q

20143Q

68.7%

65.1%

Source: Bureau of the Census, Homeownership Rates for 75 Largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas 2005-present (Q3 2014)

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Cincinnati MSA Single Family Sales2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

*OH/IN Counties include: IN (Dearborn, Franklin, and Ohio), OH (Clermont, Hamilton, Warren, and Brown)KY Counties include: KY (Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, and Pendleton)

Source: Cincinnati Board of Realtors & Northern Kentucky Association of Realtors

Number of Single Family Sales*

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

OH/IN

KY

RENTS & OCCUPANCIES

The Survey says…

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Rents & Occupancy2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

Source: CBRE Annual Rent and Occupancy Survey, YE2010-YE2014

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Overall

93.7%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Northwest

93.1%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

NKY

93.6%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

West

92.9%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

East

94.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Central

93.6%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Northeast

95.5%

Occupancy by Submarket




Source: CBRE Annual Rent & Occupancy Survey, YE2005-YE2014

Greater Cincinnati Overall Occupancy History

87.0%

88.0%

89.0%

90.0%

91.0%

92.0%

93.0%

94.0%

95.0%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

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Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2014

National Rent Growth Forecast

3.02.5 2.5

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

Annual Rent Change – US Forecast




December 2011 December 2012 December 2013

Overall $0.79 $0.82 $0.86 $0.89

Northwest $0.69 $0.76 $0.78 $0.80

Northeast $0.88 $0.91 $0.96 $0.99

West $0.68 $0.73 $0.74 $0.77

East $0.78 $0.85 $0.89 $0.89

NKY $0.75 $0.75 $0.78 $0.79

Central $0.91 $0.92 $1.01 $1.07

Source: CBRE Annual Rent and Occupancy Survey, YE2010-YE2013

December2014

Average Effective Rent Per Square Foot

Overall Average Effective Rent with Year over Year % Change

2011

$7184.06%

2012

$7463.90%

2013

$7774.16%

2014

$8043.47%

Year:

Average Effective Rent:

YoY % Change:

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Source: CBRE, YE 2014 Rent & Occupancy Survey

2013 & 2014 Rent Increases by Submarket

3.5% 4.0%3.0%

4.7%

-0.7%

1.8%

6.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

2013 2014

Overall Northwest Northeast West East NKY Central





Greater Cincinnati Overall Effective Rent History

$600

$700

$800

$900

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

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Source: CBRE Annual Rent & Occupancy Survey, YE2014

Effective Rent / Rent/SF / Occupancy by Class

Approximately 15% of Cincinnati MSA inventory is classified “A” grade. Strength of the recovery so far is fueled by Lifestyle Renter.

Eff

ectiv

e R

ent $

Occ

upan

cy %




Percentage of Properties Offering Concessions

Average Monthly Concessions by Style:


2013 2014

Studio $29 $36

1 Bedroom $32 $43

2 Bedroom $39 $46

3 Bedroom $56 $47

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Concession Summary

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Vacancy vs. Rent Inflation

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

Dec'05

Dec'06

Dec'07

Dec'08

Dec'09

Dec'10

Dec'11

Dec'12

Dec'13

Dec'14

Vacancy

Rent Inflation

INVESTMENT MARKET

Sell! Sell! Sell!

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2007-2014 National Multifamily Sales Activity2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

$106

$18

$103

$112

4,650

1,520

5,800

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

Bil

lio

ns

Consideration TransactionsSource: Real Capital Analytics



Investment Market – Cincinnati Multifamily Sales*2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

Source: CBRE; Sales over $1 Million or 100+ Units

Number of Apartment Units Sold

4,416

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Transaction Sales Volume

$0$50,000,000

$100,000,000$150,000,000$200,000,000$250,000,000$300,000,000 $299M

Average Apartment Price per Unit

$67,717

$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

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Investment Market – 2014 Sales*2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

Pinnacle on Pleasant(FKA Village of Creekside)

Sale Date 11/2014

No. Units 228

Price per Unit $55,702

Year Built 1970

Submarket Northwest

Detail East Coast buyer from local Private Seller

Meadow Ridge

Sale Date 03/2014

No. Units 356


Year Built 1997

Submarket Northwest

Detail Expiring LIHTC sale

Mallard Crossing

Sale Date 01/2014

No. Units 350


Year Built 1997

Submarket Northeast

Detail TIC sale to REIT

Source: CBRE; *Sales over $1 Million or 100+ Units



Investment Market – 2014 Sales*2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

Plantation Apartments

Sale Date 12/2014

No. Units 896


Year Built 1971

Submarket NKY

Detail Private local buyer / Private local seller

Westshore Apartments

Sale Date 11/2014

No. Units 37


Year Built 1973

Submarket NKY

Detail Sold three times in last three years

Independence Oaks

Sale Date 11/2014

No. Units 144


Year Built 2010

Submarket NKY

Detail Pittsburgh PA buyer

Source: CBRE; *Sales over $1 Million or 100+ Units

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Investment Market2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

Greater Cincinnati MSA Cap Rate Trends

Source: CBRE



Investment Market2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

Greater Cincinnati MSA Cap Rate Trends

Source: CBRE

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DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE

If you build it, they will come



Current Inventory by Submarket2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

Source: CBRE; *Units > 20

Submarket Overall Northwest Northeast West East NKY Central

AverageYear Built

1964 1973 1977 1965 1966 1969 1950

TotalNo. Units

100% 15.90% 10.23% 9.36% 11.74% 11.99% 16.39%

Total Number Units in Greater Cincinnati MSA =

± 160,000

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Development Pipeline2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

Source: US Census

Cincinnati MSA Multifamily and Single Family Permits Issued (MF defined as 5+ units)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

9121,799

3,28

7

3,20

3

SF Permits

MF Permits




Source: US Census

Cincinnati MSA Multifamily Permits Issued (MF defined as 5+ units)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

280

743 862912

1,799

20-Year Average

1,655 10-Year Average

985 5-Year Average

919

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Greater Cincinnati MF Units Built & Projected

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Proj.

2016Proj.

2017Proj.

1,447

2,4892,323

911

Source: CBRE




Greater Cincinnati MF Units Built and Projected by Submarket per Year

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

West

NKY

East

Northwest

Northeast

Central

2014

2015P

2016p

2017p

Source: CBRE

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2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKETDevelopment Pipeline

Savoy at the Streets of West Chester

Location West Chester

Submarket Northwest

Developer Hills Communities

Detail Walkable to The Streets of West Chester featuring 272 luxury one- and two-bedroom units with luxury finishes and amenities

Delivery Date

Pre-leasing Now

49 Hundred

Location Blue Ash

Submarket Northeast

Developer Hills Communities

Detail Across from Towne Square in the heart of downtown Blue Ash; 266 units with luxury finishes and amenities

Delivery Date

Pre-leasing Summer 2015; Occupancy Late 2015

Hills Communities




Liberty Center

Location Liberty Township at I-75 and SR 129

Submarket Northwest

Developer Steiner & Associates

Detail 240 units in a mixed-use town center with retail, dining, a hotel, and office; Managed by Towne Properties

Delivery Date

Fall 2015

Steiner & Associates

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4th & Race

Location Downtown Cincinnati

Submarket Central CBD

Developer Flaherty & Collins

Detail 208 units in residential tower above a 950-space parking garage and 25,000 SF street-level retail

Delivery Date

2017

The Boulevard at Oakley Station

Location Oakley

Submarket East

Developer Flaherty & Collins

Detail 165 additional units in Phase II

Delivery Date

TBD

Flaherty & Collins




MadMar Flats

Location Oakley

Submarket East

Developer Buckingham Companies

Detail 272 modern 1-, 2-, & 3-bedroom units with high-end features and amenities; Pursuing LEED for Homes certification

Delivery Date

Phase 1: August 2015Phase 2: October 2015

Buckingham Companies

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Seven at Broadway

Location Downtown Cincinnati

Submarket Central CBD

Developer North American/Northpointe

Detail Luxury apartment tower above existing parking garage with 111 units and rooftop terrace

Delivery Date

April, 2015

North American/Northpointe/Neyer




VP3

Location Uptown – Vine Street

Submarket Central

Developer Uptown/North American Properties

Detail 149 furnished garden and townhome units with garage and surface parking; High-end amenities and finishes

Delivery Date

August, 2015

101 Corry

Location Mt. Auburn/Uptown

Submarket Central

Developer Uptown/North American Properties

Detail 108 Units (272 beds) with 2 level parking garage, amenity deck, fitness center, theater, and study rooms

Delivery Date

August, 2016

Uptown/North American

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Gantry

Location Hamilton Avenue – Old Northside

Submarket Central

Developer Milhaus Development

Detail Redevelopment of lumberyard and railroad depot into mixed-use with 131 apartments and 8,000 SF retail

Delivery Date

Late Summer 2015

Milhaus Development




Loveland Station

Location Downtown Loveland

Submarket Northeast

Developer CMC Properties

Detail 1-, 2-, and 3-bedroom units in the heart of walkable downtown Loveland

Delivery Date

October 2015

CMC Properties

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Aqua on the Levee

Location Newport, KY

Submarket Northern Kentucky

Developer Capital Investment Group

Detail $80m development: 239 apartments, 800 parking spaces, 8,000 SF retail, and a 140 room Starwood Aloft Hotel

Delivery Date

2016

Avalon at the Pointe

Location Eastgate

Submarket East

Developer Capital Investment Group

Detail Upscale, urban development on Eastgate Blvd featuring 133 luxury units and a full amenity package

Delivery Date

Delivered June 2014

One Rookwood

Location Norwood at Rookwood Exchange

Submarket Central

Developer Jeffrey R. Anderson & Capital Investment Group

Detail Upscale 5-story elevator building; 127 units with upscale finishes; unparalleled location adjacent Rookwood Exchange

Delivery Date

2015

Capital Investment Group




Gaslight Manor

Location Clifton

Submarket Central

Developer Gaslight Properties

Detail 117 apartments with condo finishes targeting young and medical professionals and empty nesters

Delivery Date

Spring, 2016

Gaslight Properties

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The Ohio River Trail

Once completed, the Ohio River Trail will span 23 miles along the north bank of the river from Coney Island through Downtown to Sayler Park

It will complete the connection from Downtown to the Little Miami Scenic Trail that will eventually extend to Lake Erie

Queen City-South Mill Creek Greenway Trail

When all phases are complete, the Mill Creek Trail will extend from the Hamilton County Fairgrounds in Carthage to the Ohio River.

From the mouth of the Mill Creek, the trail will extend east to the Cincinnati Riverfront Park, with connections to the Ohio River Trail traveling east and west to other regional and statewide trails

Little Miami Scenic Trail

Runs through five southwestern counties in Ohio and as of 2008, was the longest paved trail in the United States, stretching 76 miles from Springfield to Newtown, Ohio

The Hamilton County Park District intends to extend the Little Miami Scenic Trail to Clear Creek. From there, it will follow the Little Miami River to Magrish Preserve, just past LunkenField. At Kellogg Avenue, the trail will meet the Ohio River Trail.

Cincinnati MSA | Bike Trails2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET

Source: www.cincinnati-oh.gov/bikes/bike-infrastrusture/trails

FORECAST

A peek into the future (including winning lottery numbers)

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2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKETForecasts

Recap, 2014 Forecast

Suburban rent increases averaging 2.5%

In-fill rent increases averaging 4.0%

Occupancies averaging around 92.0%

Sale market picks up momentum in the 2nd half

Luxury apartment developments replacing condominiums as a housing preference

New developments will absorb rapidly

A big spring leasing season

2015 Forecast

Rent increases moderating to 3.0%

Sale market over $400 million

Development pipeline will grow even larger

More tear-downs and adaptive re-use

More challenges on legislative and governmental front



2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKETCBRE Central Midwest Multifamily

DAVELOCKARD, CCIMSenior Vice President

STEVELAMOTTE, JR., CCIMSenior Vice President

ANNNIEHAUSClient Services

EMILYCANTLEYSales Assistant

DANEWILSONVice President

CARRIEBALLARDClient Services Specialist

JOANNAYARBROUGHClient Services Coordinator

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2015 CBRE Cincinnati Multifamily Market Overview...Big Data - the numbers don’t lie The Survey...

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