2015 Annual results - Trygtryg.com/sites/tryg.com/files/2019-01/q4_2015_investor...Financial...

41
2015 Annual results Investor presentation Follow us on Twitter: @TrygIR

Transcript of 2015 Annual results - Trygtryg.com/sites/tryg.com/files/2019-01/q4_2015_investor...Financial...

Page 1: 2015 Annual results - Trygtryg.com/sites/tryg.com/files/2019-01/q4_2015_investor...Financial highlights Q4 2015 - Less satisfactory technical result 4 704 768 Q4 2015 Q4 2014 Pre-tax

2015 Annual resultsInvestor presentation Follow us on Twitter: @TrygIR

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Contents

2

Highlights 2015 3

Premiums and portfolio 9

Claims 14

Investment, capital and targets 17

For new investors 23

Appendix 34

Disclaimer

Certain statements in this presentation are based on the beliefs of our management as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to the management. Forward-

looking statements (other than statements of historical fact) regarding our future results of operations, financial condition, cash flows, business strategy, plans and future objectives can

generally be identified by terminology such as “targets”, “believes”, “expects”, “aims”, “intends”, “plans”, “seeks”, “will”, “may”, ”anticipates”, “continues” or similar expressions.

A number of different factors may cause the actual performance to deviate significantly from the forward-looking statements in this presentation including but not limited to general

economic developments, changes in the competitive environment, developments in the financial markets, extraordinary events such as natural disasters or terrorist attacks, changes in

legislation or case law and reinsurance.

We urge you to read our annual report available on tryg.com for a discussion of some of the factors that could affect our future performance and the industry in which we operate.

Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialise or should any underlying assumptions prove to be incorrect, our actual financial condition or results of operations could

materially differ from that described herein as anticipated, believed, estimated or expected.

We are not under any duty to update any of the forward-looking statements or to conform such statements to actual results, except as may be required by law.

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Financial highlights 2015

3

18.9

23.0

2015 2014

ROE

• DPS of 6.0 for the FY and buy backs of DKK 1bn in 2016

• DPS growth in line with our aim

• Extraordinary buy backs of DKK 1bn in 2016

• Total yield approx. 7% on share price end of 2015

• Solvency II ratio (int. model) as per 1 Jan 2016 @ 176including Skandia’s book and H2 2015 dividend

• Approx. DKK 1bn of additional sub-debt capacity

• Technical result of DKK 2,423m (DKK 3,032m)

• One-off costs, high weather claims & currencies development weighed negatively but also underlying claims inflation to be offset by price increases in 2016.

• Weather and large claims DKK 208m higher than in 2014

• FY COR of 86.8 vs 84.2 in 2014

• ROE of 18.9% (23.0%) impacted by investment loss, one-off costs, high winter claims & currencies move.

• Expense ratio of 14.9, adjusted for one-off costs, in line with our 15.0 target for 2015.

• Premiums fall by 0.8% (-1.1%) in local currencies.

5.2 5.4 5.8 6.0

2.6 3.2 3.4 3.5

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

0

3

6

9

12

15

2012 2013 2014 2015

Cash dividend Extraordinary buy back Total yield (RHS)

Dividend, buy back & total yield

DKK

2,423

3,032

2015 2014

Technical result (DKKm)

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Financial highlights Q4 2015- Less satisfactory technical result

4

704 768

Q4 2015 Q4 2014

Pre-tax profit (DKKm)

14.2 14.9

Q4 2015 Q4 2014

Combined ratio

Expense ratio

• Pre-tax profit of DKK 704m (DKK 768m) impacted by:

• Lower technical result of DKK 522m (DKK 775m) impacted by high weather claims and negative currencies movements.

• Positive investment result of DKK 201m (DKK 13m) boosted by a good return on the equities portfolio.

• Technical result of DKK 522m (DKK 775m)

• Deterioration primarily driven by high weather claims and currencies impact. Underlying claims inflation calls for price increases.

• Combined ratio of 88.4 vs 83.7 in Q4 2014.

• Premiums fall by 1.6% in local currencies (-0.1%)

• Private lines up 1.1% while drop in Corporate and mostly Commercial weigh negatively on Group figures.

• Expense ratio of 14.2 (14.9) impacted by savings initiatives but also quarterly fluctuations.

88.4

83.7

Q4 2015 Q4 2014

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Customer highlights Q4 2015- NPS doubled since CMD, 2017 target already met

5

• New health care insurance launched in Denmark including a prevention app ‘TrygHealth’. The app provides access to a medical hotline via mobile video conferencing.

• New car product ‘Moderna Smart’ launched in Sweden. The price of the car insurance is differentiated depending on the driver’s driving style, recorded by an app.

• Indoor climate card, a new claims preventative initiative launched including a damp indicator, which measures the temperature and air humidity in a room.

• New organisational structure as of 1 January 2016. Removing one management level reporting to Executive Board and creating 10 national business areas supports faster decision making.

11

22 22

CMD 2014 Q4 2015 Target 2017

NPS

56.3 56.761.3

CMD 2014 Q4 2015 Target 2017

Customers with ≥3 products (%)

87.9 88.1 88.9

CMD 2014 Q4 2015 Target 2017

Retention rate

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Key figures Q4/FY

6

DKKm Q4 2015 Q4 2014 FY 2015 FY 2014

Gross premium income 4,393 4,646 17,977 18,652

Gross claims -2,988 -2,976 -13,562 -12,650

Gross expenses -615 -684 -2,720 -2,689

Technical result 522 775 2,423 3,032

Return on investment aftertechnical interest

201 13 -5 360

Profit/loss before tax 704 768 2,327 3,302

Profit/loss 721 640 1,981 2,557

Claims ratio, net of reinsurance 74.2 68.8 71.5 69.6

Gross expense ratio 14.2 14.9 15.3 14.6

Combined ratio 88.4 83.7 86.8 84.2

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Efficiency programme, DKK 47m achieved in Q4

7

• Programme deliver as planned with target to

achieve savings of DKK 750m over 3 years.

• Lower 2015 savings than in 2014.

• Claims initiatives:

• Increased collection from third parties responsible for causing a claim

• Cash payment through In4mo system

• Expense initiatives:

• Outsourcing Accounting

• Reorganisation of Agriculture & Small Commercial division

• Digital communication

Efficiency programme up until 2017 (DKKm)

150118

225

375

175

388 395

47

2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 2016 2017

Achieved Target

Old programme New programme

Q4

9M

165

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Expense ratio improved before one-off

8

• Expense ratio improved 0.7 pp. to 14.2 in Q4 and reached 14.9% for the FY excluding Q3 one-off costs.

• One-off provisioning of DKK 120m in Q3 related to efficiency programme.

• Efficiency programme delivered savings of DKK 60m for the FY related to:

• Outsourcing within Finance and IT• Commercial reorganisation

• Reduction in FTE by 240 during 2015.

FTE - Development

14.9

14.2

16.4

15.6

14.6

15.315.3

14.9

2012 2013 2014 2015 Q4 2014 Q4 2015

Expense ratio

Adjusted for one-off effects

Nominal costs in business areas

290

167

92 66

337

164108

75

Private Commercial Corporate Sweden

Q4 2015 Q4 2014

4,076

3,913

3,703

3,599

3,359

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Premiums and portfolio

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-1.6 -0.1

Q4 2015 Q4 2014

Positive topline development in Private

10

Gross earned premiums development

(Local currencies) DKKm Q4 2015 Q4 2014Local currencies

Q4 2015Local currencies

Q4 2014

Private 2,172 2,249 1.1% -0.2%

Commercial 970 1,050 -5.0% -1.8%

Corporate 949 1,015 -2.1% 1.5%

Sweden 313 338 -6.1% 1.6%

Group 4,393 4,646 -1.6% -0.1%

Gross earned premiums decreased by 1.6% (-0.1%) in local currencies driven by:

• Private trend helped by lower rebates but also improved growth and retention in Denmark.

• Commercial trend reflects a structural challenge with too low sales compared to current retention level.

• Corporate impacted by cancellation of some large accounts, profitability is targeted ahead of growth.

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85

7

Q4 2015 Q4 2014

5

98

Q4 2015 Q4 2014

522

775

Q4 2015 Q4 2014

Less satisfactory technical result

11

147

270

Q4 2015 Q4 2014

Commercial, DK & NO (DKKm)

Sweden (DKKm)

285

400

Q4 2015 Q4 2014

Group (DKKm)

Corporate (DKKm)

Private, DK & NO (DKKm)

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90

95

100

105

110

115

DK

NO

12

Motor insurance – average premium (index 2011 = 100)

Private - average premiums- DK profitability strong but competition increasing

90

95

100

105

110

115

DK

NO

House insurance – average premium (index 2011 = 100)

Average premiums increase Y/Y

-2.6% 0.8%

(Q3-2.6%) (Q3 0.5%)

Average premiums increase Y/Y

-1.0% 0.6%

(Q3 -1.0%) (Q3 0.9%)

• NO: price increases from July

• DK: changed selection reducesaverage price, price increasesstarting 2016

• DK –2.6% decrease y/y driven by:

• smaller cars• safer cars

• Higher price on new motor tariffDK will mitigate the drop in average premium

• Profitability still very strong on motor

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Customer retention

13

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

DK

NO

Commercial

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%DK

NO

Private

• Customer retention in Denmarkat highest level since Q3 2013

• Slight improvement in Norway

• Modest fall in Denmark

• Retention decreased in Norwayimpacted by economic situation

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Front page slide

Claims

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72.2

70.2

Q4 2015 Q4 2014

Increase in underlying claims ratio, net

15

68.9

65,5

Q4 2015 Q4 2014

Commercial (DK & NO)

71.9

76.1

Q4 2015 Q4 2014

Sweden

68.3 67.5

Q4 2015 Q4 2014

Group

85.0

79.4

Q4 2015 Q4 2014

Corporate

Private (DK & NO)

Underlying development is adjusted for large claims, weather claims, run-off and interest.

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Large claims, weather claims and run-off

16

5.5

7.3

5.0 5.0

6.16.7

2012 2013 2014 2015 Q4 2015 Q4 2014

Run-off net, effect on combined ratio (%)

237

119

357

620

447

614

2012 2013 2014 2015 Q4 2015 Q4 2014

Weather claims, net DKKm

134201

471407

574 613

2012 2013 2014 2015 Q4 2015 Q4 2014

Large claims, net DKKm Expected annual

level 2016: DKK 500m

Expected annual

level 2016: DKK 550m

Claims reserves discounting rate (%)

3.2

2.0

1.5

Q4 20141.2 Q4 2015

1.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Front page slide

Investment, capital and targets

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Cov. Bonds 69.0%

Bonds/deposits 3.3%

Equities 6.2%

HY 2.2%

EM 1.0%

Inv. Property 5.3%

Bonds/deposits 13.0%

Investment return – low risk remains key

18

4.5

-0.5

1.5

3.5

0.3

1.8

Free portfolio return Q4 2015 (%)

High yield corporate bonds (DKK 0.9bn)

100

8

100

22

4

5263

18

33

Bonds Equity HY & EM Inv. Property

Nordics EU ex Nordics North America EM/Other

Geographical exposure (%)

94

5 2

68

1220

88

6 5

AAA AA-A BBB-B

Match Free Total

Rating (%)

Portfolio (DKK 38.9bn)

Free10.7bn 28%

Match28.1bn 72%

Industrials77%

Energy (mostly oil)7%

Utilities3%

Other3%

Finance10%

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9,8319,235

1.6981.741

Q4 2015 Q3 2015

Equity Subordinated loan capital

6,193

9,525

Capital requirement Available capital

Solvency position Q4 2015

19

Equity and subordinate loan, DKKm

• Solvency II internal model ratio was 154 at YE (Q3 2015: 159) and was impacted by:

• Result Q4 2015

• Executed share buy back in Q4 2015

• Deduction of 60% of 2015 dividend

• Acquisition of Swedish child insurance portfolio implies an impact of DKK 400-500m, but is not included in Q4 pending regulatory approval.

Solvency II recent developments:

• Danish FSA approved Tryg’s internal model in November 2015.

• Norwegian FSA is likely to finalise the decision on the Natural Perils pool treatment at the beginning of 2016. It is expected that this will be considered Tier 2 capital.

Capital – Q4 2015, DKKm

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Solvency II ratio @ 176 as per 1 Jan 2016

20

155%151%

159%154%

176%

Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Primo2016

Solvency II ratio development

130%

135%

140%

145%

150%

155%

160%

165%

Solvency II ratio sensitivities

• Solvency II ratio (internal model) @ 176 as per 1 Jan 2016 up from 154 at year-end 2015, this includes the recent Skandia’s child insurance acquisition and the H2 2015 dividend.

• The capital base benefits from the inclusion of the expected future profits of DKK 600m, while the change in the discounting curve has a negative impact of DKK 200m.

• The capital requirement falls by some DKK 1.2bn due to the inclusion of a deferred tax asset.

• Solvency Capital requirement of DKK 5.5bn at start of 2016, Tryg has additional subordinated debt capacity of approx. DKK 1bn as some of current subordinated debt is grandfathered to Tier 1. The additional subordinated debt capacity is based on the assumption that the Natural perils pool will be Tier 2 capital.

• The solvency ratio displays highest sensitivities to credit spreads and property prices, lowest sensitivities to equities and interest rates. More details in our Solvency II newsletter.

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Targets and outlook

21

Efficiency programme proceeds as

planned.

Members’ bonus from spring 2016

Price increases to offset claims inflation

2016 topline growth between 0%-2% (local currencies)

2016 expected tax rate 21%

Markets remain very competitive

High focus on capital repatriation

Customer targets

Financial targets

Net Promoter Score (NPS) + 100%

Retention rate + 1 pp

Customers ≥ 3 products** + 5 pp

** Private (DK & NO)

2015 2017

ROE after tax = 20% ≥ 21%

Combined ratio ≤ 90 ≤ 87

Expense ratio < 15* ≤ 14

* Excl. One-off effects

0

10

20

30

40

ROE after tax (%)

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It is important to know your investment case

22

”Do you know the only thing that gives me pleasure?

It’s to see my dividends coming in.”

John D. Rockefeller

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For new investors

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9.20%8.30%

6.60% 6.90%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2012 2013 2014 2015

1,722 1,7161,617

1,3501,185

746

0

1,000

2,000

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

UK Germany Italy Denmark Norway

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Non-life Life Banking Other

Why invest in Tryg?

24

Only pure non-life group (YE 2014 data) High insurance penetration in the Nordics

Tryg is a dividend stockMotor combined ratios Nordics vs international

Premiums per capita (USD), 2014

Total yield (dividend and buy backs / mkt cap) at year end

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Tryg – at a glance I

25

• Tryg goes back to 18th century.

• Very strong brand position especially in Denmark.

• Non-life insurance in Denmark, Norway and Sweden.

• Approx. 80% retail business.

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

Retention rate - Private

DK

NO

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

Retention rate - Commercial

DK

NO

NorwayMarket position: #3

Market share: 13.5%CR in 2015: 87.9

SwedenMarket position: #5Market share: 3.0%CR in 2015: 82.7

DenmarkMarket position: #1

Market share: 18.0%CR in 2015: 85.2

56

22

22

Private

Commercial

Corporate

Business split 2015

31

5

115

24

14

10

Motor

Workers' comp

Health & accident

Liability

Fire & property - private

Fire & property - comm.

Other

Gross premium split by products 2014

Percentage

Percentage

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4.2

6.6

3.4

1.3

3.1

0.8 1.3

5.2 5.4 5.8 6.0

4.2

2.6

2.63.2

3.4 3.5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Cash dividend Ordinary buy back Extraordinary buy back

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

60

9

14

17

Danishinstitutional

Non-Danishinstitutional

Smallershareholders

Tryg – at a glance II

26

Shareholder breakdown 2014

Strengthening of brand value

Shareholder performance since IPO

Low risk investment portfolio

New dividend policy

Shareholder remuneration since IPO

Standard deviation 2011-2013

DKK

Percentage

Latest acquisitions:

2015 – Skandia’s child insurance in Sweden

2014 - Securator

2014 – Tryg acquires pet insurance in Sweden

2014 – Renewal right for Codan’s agricultural portfolio

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500Tryg incl. dividend Euro Insurance index

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Tryg’s equity story

27

Long term profitable growth and attractive shareholder value creation

Financial targets 2017

• ROE: ≥21%

• Combined ratio: ≤87%

• Expense ratio: ≤14%

Customer targets 2017

• NPS +100%

• Retention rate +1 pp

• ≥ 3 products +5 pp

Dividend policy

• Aiming for a nominal stable increasing dividend

• Pay-out ratio of 60% to 90% (secondary)

• Extraordinary buybacks to further adjust the capital structure

• 90% first contact resolution

• Annual coverage check

• 25% of tariffs better than peers in 2017

• Differentiated product offering

• Efficiency programme of DKK 750m

• Claims procurement

• Reducing expense level

• Matching assets and liabilities

• Low risk investment portfolio

Low risk and high returns

Leading in efficiency

Leading Scandinavian insurer with strong

track record

Customer care worth recommending

Next level pricing

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Things that you may not know

28

• Motor insurance prices relatively similar in DK and the UK but cost of the insured good (the car) substantially higher in DK driven by the registration tax for passenger cars (100%-150% of taxable value on new vehicles approximately).

• Motor insurance remains a highly attractive business in Scandinavia unlike many European countries.

• In Oslo, it costs approximately NOK 5,000 per month to hire a dog walker for 5 weekly walks, each walk is minimum 60 minutes.

• In Sweden it is illegal to leave a dog home alone more than six hours, the dog has to be out at least every six hours during the day.

• Pet insurance premiums totalled SEK 3.3bn at the end of September 2015 in Sweden but that includes horses as well.

• Tryg believes that Pet insurance remains an attractive growth segment.

• Child insurance is an important product in Sweden with total market premiums above SEK 2.5bn, the same product is virtually non-existent in Denmark and Norway. We believe this will gradually change and plan to leverage on our recent Skandia child insurance acquisition.

• In 2014, Tryg bought Securator reinforcing its leading position in the Nordic market for product and extended warranty insurance, a market which is estimated at more than DKK 2bn and expected to continue the growth in coming years.

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Things that you may not remember

29

• Our maximum annual net exposure to a single large Property claim is DKK 100m which falls to DKK 75m in case of a second event and DKK 50m in case of a third/fourth event, maximum exposure is DKK 25m thereafter. This is based on our general reinsurance programme.

• Our maximum net exposure for weather claims is DKK 150m per event. The upper limit of the programme is DKK 5.75bn, which is statistically sufficient to cover at least a 250-year event.

• We have bought an additional ‘horizontal’ reinsurance programme which will cover any weather claims in excess of DKK 300m up to DKK 600m. Weather claims have to be at least DKK 20m to end in the ‘horizontal’ agreement.

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Structure of the Nordic insurance market

30

Denmark

DKK 52.0bn/EUR 7.0bn (as at Q3-2014)

Sweden

SEK 73.0bn/EUR 7.8bn (as at Q3-2015)

Norway

NOK 55.8bn/EUR 6.3bn (as at Q3-2015)

Nordic

EUR 25.7bn (as at Q4-2014)

13.5

22.1

25.2

10.0

29.2 Tryg

If

Gjensidige

Sparebank1

Other

9.3

4.8

17.2

8.7

8.79.1

42.2

Tryg

Topdanmark

If

Codan

Gjensidige

Länsforsikringar

Other

18.0

17.5

6.0

11.66.4

9.7

30.8Tryg

Topdanmark

If

Codan

Gjensidige

Alm. Brand

Other

2.9

18.2

15.5

1.6

30.0

16.7

15.1

Moderna (Tryg)

If

Trygg-Hansa (Codan)

Gjensidige

Länsforsikringar

Folksam

Other

Percentage

PercentagePercentage

Percentage

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51

3

31

15

Own sales

External partners

Online & others

Atlantica/Bilsport MC

57

29

14

Own sales

Affinity

Nordea

44

12

38

6

Own sales

Car dealers

Affinity

Nordea

4555

Own sales

Brokers

Distribution of new sales 2015

31

Norway

Corporate Sweden

Denmark

Percentage

PercentagePercentage

Percentage

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80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Combined ratio performance

32

Premium hikes

Premium hikes

Smaller adjustments

Efficiencyprogramme

Customer andefficiency focus

2002-2004 price increases of DKK 2.1bn implemented. Reduced combined ratio from 107 to 94.

2011-2012 price increases will improve underlying combined ratio.

2012-2015 operational focus with target to cut expenses and claims costs by DKK 1bn in total.

2015-2017 New efficiency programme of DKK 750m launched.

*IFRS from 2004. Previous years are Danish GAAP.

Data before 2009 is not corrected for the sale of Marine Hull business, and Finland before 2008.

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Key figures 2011-15 and consensus 2016-18

33

Consensus

DKKm 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Gross premium income 19,948 20,314 19,504 18,652 17,977 17,863 18,075 18,375

Technical result 1,572 2,492 2,496 3,032 2,423 2,642 2,825 2,855

Investment income, net 61 585 588 360 -5 1 178 172

Pre-tax profit 1,603 3,017 2,993 3,302 2,327 2,599 2,950 2,956

Net income 1,140 2,208 2,369 2,557 1,981 2,027 2,312 2,316

Combined ratio 93.2 88.2 87.7 84.2 86.8 85.5 84.5 84.7

Expense ratio 16.6 16.4 15.6 14.6(*) 15.3(**) 14.5 14.1 14.0

Earnings per share 3.8 7.3 7.9 8.7 7.0 7.4 8.5 8.6

Dividend per share 1.3 5.2 5.4 5.8 6.0 6.3 6.5 6.7

Share buy back 0 800 1,000 1,000 1,000 777 715 367

2016 & 2017 is based on 12 estimates and 2018 is based on 7 estimates after Q4 2015 * 15.3 excluding one-off, ** 14.9 excluding one-off

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Appendix

Follow us on Twitter: @TrygIR

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Group

35

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

Expense ratio

75

80

85

90

95

100

Combined ratio

60

65

70

75

80

Claims ratio, net of reinsurance

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

Gross premiums

%DKKm

GEP (LHS) Local currency (RHS)

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Private

36

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

Expense ratio

75

80

85

90

95

100

Combined ratio

60

65

70

75

80

Claims ratio, net of reinsurance

-3-2-101234567

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

Gross premiums

%DKKm

GEP (LHS) Local currency (RHS)

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Commercial

37

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Expense ratio

75

80

85

90

95

100

Combined ratio

55

60

65

70

75

Claims ratio, net of reinsurance

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Gross premiums

%DKKm

GEP (LHS) Local currency (RHS)

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Corporate

38

10

11

12

13

14

15

Expense ratio

75

80

85

90

95

100

Combined ratio

65

70

75

80

85

Claims ratio, net of reinsurance

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Gross premiums

%DKKm

GEP (LHS) Local currency (RHS)

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Sweden

39

15

16

17

18

19

20

Expense ratio

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Combined ratio

60

65

70

75

80

85

Claims ratio, net of reinsurance

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Gross premiums

%DKKm

GEP (LHS) Local currency (RHS)

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Geographical segments

Norway

DKKmQ4 2015 Q4 2014 FY 2015 FY 2014

Gross premiums earned 1,611 1,839 6,766 7,337

Technical result124 190 844 1,478

Key ratios:

Gross claims ratio74.4 73.1 70.9 66.5

Result of ceded business 4.3 0.9 2.1 1.4

Gross expense ratio13.8 16.0 14.9 12.5

Combined ratio92.5 90.0 87.9 80.4

Sweden

DKKmQ4 2015 Q4 2014 FY 2015 FY 2014

Gross premiums earned 463 467 1,894 1,975

Technical result109 -66 328 44

Key ratios:

Gross claims ratio54.6 89.1 63.5 77.6

Result of ceded business 3.0 3.9 1.7 2.2

Gross expense ratio19.0 21.4 17.5 18.4

Combined ratio76.6 114.4 82.7 98.2

Denmark

DKKmQ4 2015 Q4 2014 FY 2015 FY 2014

Gross premiums earned 2,330 2,346 9,346 9,361

Technical result289 651 1,371 1,510

Key ratios:

Gross claims ratio65.2 52.1 80.5 66.9

Result of ceded business 9.3 7.9 -9.2 2.1

Gross expense ratio13.1 12.4 13.9 15.1

Combined ratio87.6 72.4 85.2 84.1

40

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Norway

% 2015 2016

GDP Growth (mainland) 1.4 1.4

Inflation 2.7 2.4

Unemployment 4.4 4.8

Current account balance in % of GDP

6.3 5.6

Budget balance in % of GDP 7.0 5.4

Public debt in % of GDP 0.0 0.0

Sweden

% 2015 2016

GDP Growth 3.5 3.5

Inflation 0.9 1.6

Unemployment 7.4 6.8

Current account balance in % of GDP

6.4 6.8

Budget balance in % of GDP -1.0 -1.3

Public debt in % of GDP 43.5 42.1

Economic key figures

41

Source: Economic Outlook, Nordea Markets, December 2015

Denmark

% 2015 2016

GDP Growth 1.4 1.7

Inflation 0.5 1.1

Unemployment 4.6 4.0

Current account balance in % of GDP

7.4 7.0

Budget balance in % of GDP -2.9 -2.7

Public debt in % of GDP 39.5 41.0