2015 Annual results - Trygtryg.com/sites/tryg.com/files/2019-01/q4_2015_investor...Financial...
Transcript of 2015 Annual results - Trygtryg.com/sites/tryg.com/files/2019-01/q4_2015_investor...Financial...
2015 Annual resultsInvestor presentation Follow us on Twitter: @TrygIR
Contents
2
Highlights 2015 3
Premiums and portfolio 9
Claims 14
Investment, capital and targets 17
For new investors 23
Appendix 34
Disclaimer
Certain statements in this presentation are based on the beliefs of our management as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to the management. Forward-
looking statements (other than statements of historical fact) regarding our future results of operations, financial condition, cash flows, business strategy, plans and future objectives can
generally be identified by terminology such as “targets”, “believes”, “expects”, “aims”, “intends”, “plans”, “seeks”, “will”, “may”, ”anticipates”, “continues” or similar expressions.
A number of different factors may cause the actual performance to deviate significantly from the forward-looking statements in this presentation including but not limited to general
economic developments, changes in the competitive environment, developments in the financial markets, extraordinary events such as natural disasters or terrorist attacks, changes in
legislation or case law and reinsurance.
We urge you to read our annual report available on tryg.com for a discussion of some of the factors that could affect our future performance and the industry in which we operate.
Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialise or should any underlying assumptions prove to be incorrect, our actual financial condition or results of operations could
materially differ from that described herein as anticipated, believed, estimated or expected.
We are not under any duty to update any of the forward-looking statements or to conform such statements to actual results, except as may be required by law.
Financial highlights 2015
3
18.9
23.0
2015 2014
ROE
• DPS of 6.0 for the FY and buy backs of DKK 1bn in 2016
• DPS growth in line with our aim
• Extraordinary buy backs of DKK 1bn in 2016
• Total yield approx. 7% on share price end of 2015
• Solvency II ratio (int. model) as per 1 Jan 2016 @ 176including Skandia’s book and H2 2015 dividend
• Approx. DKK 1bn of additional sub-debt capacity
• Technical result of DKK 2,423m (DKK 3,032m)
• One-off costs, high weather claims & currencies development weighed negatively but also underlying claims inflation to be offset by price increases in 2016.
• Weather and large claims DKK 208m higher than in 2014
• FY COR of 86.8 vs 84.2 in 2014
• ROE of 18.9% (23.0%) impacted by investment loss, one-off costs, high winter claims & currencies move.
• Expense ratio of 14.9, adjusted for one-off costs, in line with our 15.0 target for 2015.
• Premiums fall by 0.8% (-1.1%) in local currencies.
5.2 5.4 5.8 6.0
2.6 3.2 3.4 3.5
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0
3
6
9
12
15
2012 2013 2014 2015
Cash dividend Extraordinary buy back Total yield (RHS)
Dividend, buy back & total yield
DKK
2,423
3,032
2015 2014
Technical result (DKKm)
Financial highlights Q4 2015- Less satisfactory technical result
4
704 768
Q4 2015 Q4 2014
Pre-tax profit (DKKm)
14.2 14.9
Q4 2015 Q4 2014
Combined ratio
Expense ratio
• Pre-tax profit of DKK 704m (DKK 768m) impacted by:
• Lower technical result of DKK 522m (DKK 775m) impacted by high weather claims and negative currencies movements.
• Positive investment result of DKK 201m (DKK 13m) boosted by a good return on the equities portfolio.
• Technical result of DKK 522m (DKK 775m)
• Deterioration primarily driven by high weather claims and currencies impact. Underlying claims inflation calls for price increases.
• Combined ratio of 88.4 vs 83.7 in Q4 2014.
• Premiums fall by 1.6% in local currencies (-0.1%)
• Private lines up 1.1% while drop in Corporate and mostly Commercial weigh negatively on Group figures.
• Expense ratio of 14.2 (14.9) impacted by savings initiatives but also quarterly fluctuations.
88.4
83.7
Q4 2015 Q4 2014
Customer highlights Q4 2015- NPS doubled since CMD, 2017 target already met
5
• New health care insurance launched in Denmark including a prevention app ‘TrygHealth’. The app provides access to a medical hotline via mobile video conferencing.
• New car product ‘Moderna Smart’ launched in Sweden. The price of the car insurance is differentiated depending on the driver’s driving style, recorded by an app.
• Indoor climate card, a new claims preventative initiative launched including a damp indicator, which measures the temperature and air humidity in a room.
• New organisational structure as of 1 January 2016. Removing one management level reporting to Executive Board and creating 10 national business areas supports faster decision making.
11
22 22
CMD 2014 Q4 2015 Target 2017
NPS
56.3 56.761.3
CMD 2014 Q4 2015 Target 2017
Customers with ≥3 products (%)
87.9 88.1 88.9
CMD 2014 Q4 2015 Target 2017
Retention rate
Key figures Q4/FY
6
DKKm Q4 2015 Q4 2014 FY 2015 FY 2014
Gross premium income 4,393 4,646 17,977 18,652
Gross claims -2,988 -2,976 -13,562 -12,650
Gross expenses -615 -684 -2,720 -2,689
Technical result 522 775 2,423 3,032
Return on investment aftertechnical interest
201 13 -5 360
Profit/loss before tax 704 768 2,327 3,302
Profit/loss 721 640 1,981 2,557
Claims ratio, net of reinsurance 74.2 68.8 71.5 69.6
Gross expense ratio 14.2 14.9 15.3 14.6
Combined ratio 88.4 83.7 86.8 84.2
Efficiency programme, DKK 47m achieved in Q4
7
• Programme deliver as planned with target to
achieve savings of DKK 750m over 3 years.
• Lower 2015 savings than in 2014.
• Claims initiatives:
• Increased collection from third parties responsible for causing a claim
• Cash payment through In4mo system
• Expense initiatives:
• Outsourcing Accounting
• Reorganisation of Agriculture & Small Commercial division
• Digital communication
Efficiency programme up until 2017 (DKKm)
150118
225
375
175
388 395
47
2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 2016 2017
Achieved Target
Old programme New programme
Q4
9M
165
Expense ratio improved before one-off
8
• Expense ratio improved 0.7 pp. to 14.2 in Q4 and reached 14.9% for the FY excluding Q3 one-off costs.
• One-off provisioning of DKK 120m in Q3 related to efficiency programme.
• Efficiency programme delivered savings of DKK 60m for the FY related to:
• Outsourcing within Finance and IT• Commercial reorganisation
• Reduction in FTE by 240 during 2015.
FTE - Development
14.9
14.2
16.4
15.6
14.6
15.315.3
14.9
2012 2013 2014 2015 Q4 2014 Q4 2015
Expense ratio
Adjusted for one-off effects
Nominal costs in business areas
290
167
92 66
337
164108
75
Private Commercial Corporate Sweden
Q4 2015 Q4 2014
4,076
3,913
3,703
3,599
3,359
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Premiums and portfolio
-1.6 -0.1
Q4 2015 Q4 2014
Positive topline development in Private
10
Gross earned premiums development
(Local currencies) DKKm Q4 2015 Q4 2014Local currencies
Q4 2015Local currencies
Q4 2014
Private 2,172 2,249 1.1% -0.2%
Commercial 970 1,050 -5.0% -1.8%
Corporate 949 1,015 -2.1% 1.5%
Sweden 313 338 -6.1% 1.6%
Group 4,393 4,646 -1.6% -0.1%
Gross earned premiums decreased by 1.6% (-0.1%) in local currencies driven by:
• Private trend helped by lower rebates but also improved growth and retention in Denmark.
• Commercial trend reflects a structural challenge with too low sales compared to current retention level.
• Corporate impacted by cancellation of some large accounts, profitability is targeted ahead of growth.
85
7
Q4 2015 Q4 2014
5
98
Q4 2015 Q4 2014
522
775
Q4 2015 Q4 2014
Less satisfactory technical result
11
147
270
Q4 2015 Q4 2014
Commercial, DK & NO (DKKm)
Sweden (DKKm)
285
400
Q4 2015 Q4 2014
Group (DKKm)
Corporate (DKKm)
Private, DK & NO (DKKm)
90
95
100
105
110
115
DK
NO
12
Motor insurance – average premium (index 2011 = 100)
Private - average premiums- DK profitability strong but competition increasing
90
95
100
105
110
115
DK
NO
House insurance – average premium (index 2011 = 100)
Average premiums increase Y/Y
-2.6% 0.8%
(Q3-2.6%) (Q3 0.5%)
Average premiums increase Y/Y
-1.0% 0.6%
(Q3 -1.0%) (Q3 0.9%)
• NO: price increases from July
• DK: changed selection reducesaverage price, price increasesstarting 2016
• DK –2.6% decrease y/y driven by:
• smaller cars• safer cars
• Higher price on new motor tariffDK will mitigate the drop in average premium
• Profitability still very strong on motor
Customer retention
13
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
DK
NO
Commercial
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%DK
NO
Private
• Customer retention in Denmarkat highest level since Q3 2013
• Slight improvement in Norway
• Modest fall in Denmark
• Retention decreased in Norwayimpacted by economic situation
Front page slide
Claims
72.2
70.2
Q4 2015 Q4 2014
Increase in underlying claims ratio, net
15
68.9
65,5
Q4 2015 Q4 2014
Commercial (DK & NO)
71.9
76.1
Q4 2015 Q4 2014
Sweden
68.3 67.5
Q4 2015 Q4 2014
Group
85.0
79.4
Q4 2015 Q4 2014
Corporate
Private (DK & NO)
Underlying development is adjusted for large claims, weather claims, run-off and interest.
Large claims, weather claims and run-off
16
5.5
7.3
5.0 5.0
6.16.7
2012 2013 2014 2015 Q4 2015 Q4 2014
Run-off net, effect on combined ratio (%)
237
119
357
620
447
614
2012 2013 2014 2015 Q4 2015 Q4 2014
Weather claims, net DKKm
134201
471407
574 613
2012 2013 2014 2015 Q4 2015 Q4 2014
Large claims, net DKKm Expected annual
level 2016: DKK 500m
Expected annual
level 2016: DKK 550m
Claims reserves discounting rate (%)
3.2
2.0
1.5
Q4 20141.2 Q4 2015
1.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Front page slide
Investment, capital and targets
Cov. Bonds 69.0%
Bonds/deposits 3.3%
Equities 6.2%
HY 2.2%
EM 1.0%
Inv. Property 5.3%
Bonds/deposits 13.0%
Investment return – low risk remains key
18
4.5
-0.5
1.5
3.5
0.3
1.8
Free portfolio return Q4 2015 (%)
High yield corporate bonds (DKK 0.9bn)
100
8
100
22
4
5263
18
33
Bonds Equity HY & EM Inv. Property
Nordics EU ex Nordics North America EM/Other
Geographical exposure (%)
94
5 2
68
1220
88
6 5
AAA AA-A BBB-B
Match Free Total
Rating (%)
Portfolio (DKK 38.9bn)
Free10.7bn 28%
Match28.1bn 72%
Industrials77%
Energy (mostly oil)7%
Utilities3%
Other3%
Finance10%
9,8319,235
1.6981.741
Q4 2015 Q3 2015
Equity Subordinated loan capital
6,193
9,525
Capital requirement Available capital
Solvency position Q4 2015
19
Equity and subordinate loan, DKKm
• Solvency II internal model ratio was 154 at YE (Q3 2015: 159) and was impacted by:
• Result Q4 2015
• Executed share buy back in Q4 2015
• Deduction of 60% of 2015 dividend
• Acquisition of Swedish child insurance portfolio implies an impact of DKK 400-500m, but is not included in Q4 pending regulatory approval.
Solvency II recent developments:
• Danish FSA approved Tryg’s internal model in November 2015.
• Norwegian FSA is likely to finalise the decision on the Natural Perils pool treatment at the beginning of 2016. It is expected that this will be considered Tier 2 capital.
Capital – Q4 2015, DKKm
Solvency II ratio @ 176 as per 1 Jan 2016
20
155%151%
159%154%
176%
Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Primo2016
Solvency II ratio development
130%
135%
140%
145%
150%
155%
160%
165%
Solvency II ratio sensitivities
• Solvency II ratio (internal model) @ 176 as per 1 Jan 2016 up from 154 at year-end 2015, this includes the recent Skandia’s child insurance acquisition and the H2 2015 dividend.
• The capital base benefits from the inclusion of the expected future profits of DKK 600m, while the change in the discounting curve has a negative impact of DKK 200m.
• The capital requirement falls by some DKK 1.2bn due to the inclusion of a deferred tax asset.
• Solvency Capital requirement of DKK 5.5bn at start of 2016, Tryg has additional subordinated debt capacity of approx. DKK 1bn as some of current subordinated debt is grandfathered to Tier 1. The additional subordinated debt capacity is based on the assumption that the Natural perils pool will be Tier 2 capital.
• The solvency ratio displays highest sensitivities to credit spreads and property prices, lowest sensitivities to equities and interest rates. More details in our Solvency II newsletter.
Targets and outlook
21
Efficiency programme proceeds as
planned.
Members’ bonus from spring 2016
Price increases to offset claims inflation
2016 topline growth between 0%-2% (local currencies)
2016 expected tax rate 21%
Markets remain very competitive
High focus on capital repatriation
Customer targets
Financial targets
Net Promoter Score (NPS) + 100%
Retention rate + 1 pp
Customers ≥ 3 products** + 5 pp
** Private (DK & NO)
2015 2017
ROE after tax = 20% ≥ 21%
Combined ratio ≤ 90 ≤ 87
Expense ratio < 15* ≤ 14
* Excl. One-off effects
0
10
20
30
40
ROE after tax (%)
It is important to know your investment case
22
”Do you know the only thing that gives me pleasure?
It’s to see my dividends coming in.”
John D. Rockefeller
For new investors
9.20%8.30%
6.60% 6.90%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2012 2013 2014 2015
1,722 1,7161,617
1,3501,185
746
0
1,000
2,000
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
UK Germany Italy Denmark Norway
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Non-life Life Banking Other
Why invest in Tryg?
24
Only pure non-life group (YE 2014 data) High insurance penetration in the Nordics
Tryg is a dividend stockMotor combined ratios Nordics vs international
Premiums per capita (USD), 2014
Total yield (dividend and buy backs / mkt cap) at year end
Tryg – at a glance I
25
• Tryg goes back to 18th century.
• Very strong brand position especially in Denmark.
• Non-life insurance in Denmark, Norway and Sweden.
• Approx. 80% retail business.
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
Retention rate - Private
DK
NO
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
Retention rate - Commercial
DK
NO
NorwayMarket position: #3
Market share: 13.5%CR in 2015: 87.9
SwedenMarket position: #5Market share: 3.0%CR in 2015: 82.7
DenmarkMarket position: #1
Market share: 18.0%CR in 2015: 85.2
56
22
22
Private
Commercial
Corporate
Business split 2015
31
5
115
24
14
10
Motor
Workers' comp
Health & accident
Liability
Fire & property - private
Fire & property - comm.
Other
Gross premium split by products 2014
Percentage
Percentage
4.2
6.6
3.4
1.3
3.1
0.8 1.3
5.2 5.4 5.8 6.0
4.2
2.6
2.63.2
3.4 3.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Cash dividend Ordinary buy back Extraordinary buy back
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
60
9
14
17
Danishinstitutional
Non-Danishinstitutional
Smallershareholders
Tryg – at a glance II
26
Shareholder breakdown 2014
Strengthening of brand value
Shareholder performance since IPO
Low risk investment portfolio
New dividend policy
Shareholder remuneration since IPO
Standard deviation 2011-2013
DKK
Percentage
Latest acquisitions:
2015 – Skandia’s child insurance in Sweden
2014 - Securator
2014 – Tryg acquires pet insurance in Sweden
2014 – Renewal right for Codan’s agricultural portfolio
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500Tryg incl. dividend Euro Insurance index
Tryg’s equity story
27
Long term profitable growth and attractive shareholder value creation
Financial targets 2017
• ROE: ≥21%
• Combined ratio: ≤87%
• Expense ratio: ≤14%
Customer targets 2017
• NPS +100%
• Retention rate +1 pp
• ≥ 3 products +5 pp
Dividend policy
• Aiming for a nominal stable increasing dividend
• Pay-out ratio of 60% to 90% (secondary)
• Extraordinary buybacks to further adjust the capital structure
• 90% first contact resolution
• Annual coverage check
• 25% of tariffs better than peers in 2017
• Differentiated product offering
• Efficiency programme of DKK 750m
• Claims procurement
• Reducing expense level
• Matching assets and liabilities
• Low risk investment portfolio
Low risk and high returns
Leading in efficiency
Leading Scandinavian insurer with strong
track record
Customer care worth recommending
Next level pricing
Things that you may not know
28
• Motor insurance prices relatively similar in DK and the UK but cost of the insured good (the car) substantially higher in DK driven by the registration tax for passenger cars (100%-150% of taxable value on new vehicles approximately).
• Motor insurance remains a highly attractive business in Scandinavia unlike many European countries.
• In Oslo, it costs approximately NOK 5,000 per month to hire a dog walker for 5 weekly walks, each walk is minimum 60 minutes.
• In Sweden it is illegal to leave a dog home alone more than six hours, the dog has to be out at least every six hours during the day.
• Pet insurance premiums totalled SEK 3.3bn at the end of September 2015 in Sweden but that includes horses as well.
• Tryg believes that Pet insurance remains an attractive growth segment.
• Child insurance is an important product in Sweden with total market premiums above SEK 2.5bn, the same product is virtually non-existent in Denmark and Norway. We believe this will gradually change and plan to leverage on our recent Skandia child insurance acquisition.
• In 2014, Tryg bought Securator reinforcing its leading position in the Nordic market for product and extended warranty insurance, a market which is estimated at more than DKK 2bn and expected to continue the growth in coming years.
Things that you may not remember
29
• Our maximum annual net exposure to a single large Property claim is DKK 100m which falls to DKK 75m in case of a second event and DKK 50m in case of a third/fourth event, maximum exposure is DKK 25m thereafter. This is based on our general reinsurance programme.
• Our maximum net exposure for weather claims is DKK 150m per event. The upper limit of the programme is DKK 5.75bn, which is statistically sufficient to cover at least a 250-year event.
• We have bought an additional ‘horizontal’ reinsurance programme which will cover any weather claims in excess of DKK 300m up to DKK 600m. Weather claims have to be at least DKK 20m to end in the ‘horizontal’ agreement.
Structure of the Nordic insurance market
30
Denmark
DKK 52.0bn/EUR 7.0bn (as at Q3-2014)
Sweden
SEK 73.0bn/EUR 7.8bn (as at Q3-2015)
Norway
NOK 55.8bn/EUR 6.3bn (as at Q3-2015)
Nordic
EUR 25.7bn (as at Q4-2014)
13.5
22.1
25.2
10.0
29.2 Tryg
If
Gjensidige
Sparebank1
Other
9.3
4.8
17.2
8.7
8.79.1
42.2
Tryg
Topdanmark
If
Codan
Gjensidige
Länsforsikringar
Other
18.0
17.5
6.0
11.66.4
9.7
30.8Tryg
Topdanmark
If
Codan
Gjensidige
Alm. Brand
Other
2.9
18.2
15.5
1.6
30.0
16.7
15.1
Moderna (Tryg)
If
Trygg-Hansa (Codan)
Gjensidige
Länsforsikringar
Folksam
Other
Percentage
PercentagePercentage
Percentage
51
3
31
15
Own sales
External partners
Online & others
Atlantica/Bilsport MC
57
29
14
Own sales
Affinity
Nordea
44
12
38
6
Own sales
Car dealers
Affinity
Nordea
4555
Own sales
Brokers
Distribution of new sales 2015
31
Norway
Corporate Sweden
Denmark
Percentage
PercentagePercentage
Percentage
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Combined ratio performance
32
Premium hikes
Premium hikes
Smaller adjustments
Efficiencyprogramme
Customer andefficiency focus
2002-2004 price increases of DKK 2.1bn implemented. Reduced combined ratio from 107 to 94.
2011-2012 price increases will improve underlying combined ratio.
2012-2015 operational focus with target to cut expenses and claims costs by DKK 1bn in total.
2015-2017 New efficiency programme of DKK 750m launched.
*IFRS from 2004. Previous years are Danish GAAP.
Data before 2009 is not corrected for the sale of Marine Hull business, and Finland before 2008.
Key figures 2011-15 and consensus 2016-18
33
Consensus
DKKm 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gross premium income 19,948 20,314 19,504 18,652 17,977 17,863 18,075 18,375
Technical result 1,572 2,492 2,496 3,032 2,423 2,642 2,825 2,855
Investment income, net 61 585 588 360 -5 1 178 172
Pre-tax profit 1,603 3,017 2,993 3,302 2,327 2,599 2,950 2,956
Net income 1,140 2,208 2,369 2,557 1,981 2,027 2,312 2,316
Combined ratio 93.2 88.2 87.7 84.2 86.8 85.5 84.5 84.7
Expense ratio 16.6 16.4 15.6 14.6(*) 15.3(**) 14.5 14.1 14.0
Earnings per share 3.8 7.3 7.9 8.7 7.0 7.4 8.5 8.6
Dividend per share 1.3 5.2 5.4 5.8 6.0 6.3 6.5 6.7
Share buy back 0 800 1,000 1,000 1,000 777 715 367
2016 & 2017 is based on 12 estimates and 2018 is based on 7 estimates after Q4 2015 * 15.3 excluding one-off, ** 14.9 excluding one-off
Appendix
Follow us on Twitter: @TrygIR
Group
35
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Expense ratio
75
80
85
90
95
100
Combined ratio
60
65
70
75
80
Claims ratio, net of reinsurance
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
21,000
Gross premiums
%DKKm
GEP (LHS) Local currency (RHS)
Private
36
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Expense ratio
75
80
85
90
95
100
Combined ratio
60
65
70
75
80
Claims ratio, net of reinsurance
-3-2-101234567
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
Gross premiums
%DKKm
GEP (LHS) Local currency (RHS)
Commercial
37
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Expense ratio
75
80
85
90
95
100
Combined ratio
55
60
65
70
75
Claims ratio, net of reinsurance
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Gross premiums
%DKKm
GEP (LHS) Local currency (RHS)
Corporate
38
10
11
12
13
14
15
Expense ratio
75
80
85
90
95
100
Combined ratio
65
70
75
80
85
Claims ratio, net of reinsurance
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Gross premiums
%DKKm
GEP (LHS) Local currency (RHS)
Sweden
39
15
16
17
18
19
20
Expense ratio
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Combined ratio
60
65
70
75
80
85
Claims ratio, net of reinsurance
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Gross premiums
%DKKm
GEP (LHS) Local currency (RHS)
Geographical segments
Norway
DKKmQ4 2015 Q4 2014 FY 2015 FY 2014
Gross premiums earned 1,611 1,839 6,766 7,337
Technical result124 190 844 1,478
Key ratios:
Gross claims ratio74.4 73.1 70.9 66.5
Result of ceded business 4.3 0.9 2.1 1.4
Gross expense ratio13.8 16.0 14.9 12.5
Combined ratio92.5 90.0 87.9 80.4
Sweden
DKKmQ4 2015 Q4 2014 FY 2015 FY 2014
Gross premiums earned 463 467 1,894 1,975
Technical result109 -66 328 44
Key ratios:
Gross claims ratio54.6 89.1 63.5 77.6
Result of ceded business 3.0 3.9 1.7 2.2
Gross expense ratio19.0 21.4 17.5 18.4
Combined ratio76.6 114.4 82.7 98.2
Denmark
DKKmQ4 2015 Q4 2014 FY 2015 FY 2014
Gross premiums earned 2,330 2,346 9,346 9,361
Technical result289 651 1,371 1,510
Key ratios:
Gross claims ratio65.2 52.1 80.5 66.9
Result of ceded business 9.3 7.9 -9.2 2.1
Gross expense ratio13.1 12.4 13.9 15.1
Combined ratio87.6 72.4 85.2 84.1
40
Norway
% 2015 2016
GDP Growth (mainland) 1.4 1.4
Inflation 2.7 2.4
Unemployment 4.4 4.8
Current account balance in % of GDP
6.3 5.6
Budget balance in % of GDP 7.0 5.4
Public debt in % of GDP 0.0 0.0
Sweden
% 2015 2016
GDP Growth 3.5 3.5
Inflation 0.9 1.6
Unemployment 7.4 6.8
Current account balance in % of GDP
6.4 6.8
Budget balance in % of GDP -1.0 -1.3
Public debt in % of GDP 43.5 42.1
Economic key figures
41
Source: Economic Outlook, Nordea Markets, December 2015
Denmark
% 2015 2016
GDP Growth 1.4 1.7
Inflation 0.5 1.1
Unemployment 4.6 4.0
Current account balance in % of GDP
7.4 7.0
Budget balance in % of GDP -2.9 -2.7
Public debt in % of GDP 39.5 41.0