2015-11 County Sales & Price Public PPT

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CALIFORNIA

HOUSING MARKETUPDATE

Monthly Sales and Price Statistics

November 2015



SALES OF EXISTING DETACHED HOMES

California, Nov 2015 Sales: 369,680 Units, +6.0% YTD, -1.6% YTY

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

J a n - 0 5

J u l - 0 5

J a n - 0 6

J u l - 0 6

J a n - 0 7

J u l - 0 7

J a n - 0 8

J u l - 0 8

J a n - 0 9

J u l - 0 9

J a n - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

J u l - 1 5

*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualizedSERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Nov-15:369,680

Nov-14:375,740



CALIFORNIA SALES(JAN 2000 – PRESENT)

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

J a n - 0 0

S e p - 0 0

M a y - 0 1

J a n - 0 2

S e p - 0 2

M a y - 0 3

J a n - 0 4

S e p - 0 4

M a y - 0 5

J a n - 0 6

S e p - 0 6

M a y - 0 7

J a n - 0 8

S e p - 0 8

M a y - 0 9

J a n - 1 0

S e p - 1 0

M a y - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

S e p - 1 2

M a y - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

M a y - 1 5

Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)



CALIFORNIA SALES(JAN 2010 – PRESENT)

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes, Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

J a n - 1 0

A p r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

A p r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

J u l - 1 5

O c t - 1 5

Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)



BAY AREA SALES (EXISTING SFH)

SERIES: Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

J a n - 1 0

A p r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

A p r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

J u l - 1 5

O c t - 1 5

Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)YoY % chg.



CENTRAL VALLEY SALES (EXISTING SFH)


-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

J a n - 1 0

A p r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

A p r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

J u l - 1 5

O c t - 1 5

Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)YoY % chg.



SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (EXISTING SFH)


-25%

-20%-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

J a n - 1 0

A p r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

A p r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

J u l - 1 5

O c t - 1 5

So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)YoY % chg.



SALES SHARE BY PRICE RANGE

14%

18%16%

14%

19%

9% 8%

3%

12%

17% 16%14%

21%

9% 9%

3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Nov-14 Nov-15

SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®



CHANGE IN SALES BY PRICE RANGE

(Year-to-Year)

-18.3%

-4.0% -4.2%

-1.3%

10.6%

7.7%

11.3% 10.7%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%Nov-15

SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®



MEDIAN PRICE OF EXISTING DETACHED HOMES

California, Nov 2015: $475,000, -0.2% MTM, +6.8% YTY

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

J a n - 0 5

J u l - 0 5

J a n - 0 6

J u l - 0 6

J a n - 0 7

J u l - 0 7

J a n - 0 8

J u l - 0 8

J a n - 0 9

J u l - 0 9

J a n - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

J u l - 1 5

P: May-07$594,530

T: Feb-09$245,230-59% frompeak

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Nov-15:$475,000

Nov-14:$444,630



-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

J a n - 0 5

J u l - 0 5

J a n - 0 6

J u l - 0 6

J a n - 0 7

J u l - 0 7

J a n - 0 8

J u l - 0 8

J a n - 0 9

J u l - 0 9

J a n - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

J u l - 1 5

Condo Single-Family Homes

HOME PRICE APPRECIATIONS HAVE

MODERATED SINCE MID 2013

SERIES: Sales of SFH and Condo UnitsSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

YTY% Chg. in Price



CA MEDIAN PRICE (EXISTING SFH)

SERIES: Median Price, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

J a n - 0 5

J u n - 0 5

N o v - 0 5

A p r - 0 6

S e p - 0 6

F e b - 0 7

J u l - 0 7

D e c - 0 7

M a y - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

M a r - 0 9

A u g - 0 9

J a n - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

N o v - 1 0

A p r - 1 1

S e p - 1 1

F e b - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

D e c - 1 2

M a y - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

M a r - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

J u n - 1 5

N o v - 1 5

Month-to-Month % Chg



PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT

Nov 2015: $235, Down 0.7% MTM, Up 2.1% YTY

$235

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

J a n - 0 7

A p r - 0 7

J u l - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

J a n - 0 8

A p r - 0 8

J u l - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

J a n - 0 9

A p r - 0 9

J u l - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

J a n - 1 0

A p r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

A p r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

J u l - 1 5

O c t - 1 5

PRICE PER SQ. FT.

SERIES: Median Price Per Square FeetSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®



SALES PRICE -TO-LIST PRICE RATIO

Nov 2015: 98.1%, Down 0.2% MTM, Up 0.6% YTY

98.1%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

102%

J a n - 0 7

A p r - 0 7

J u l - 0 7

O c t - 0 7

J a n - 0 8

A p r - 0 8

J u l - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

J a n - 0 9

A p r - 0 9

J u l - 0 9

O c t - 0 9

J a n - 1 0

A p r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

A p r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

J u l - 1 5

O c t - 1 5

Sales-to-List Price Ratio

SERIES: Sales-to-List RatioSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®



INVENTORY CONTINUED TODECLINE FROM LAST YEAR

Nov 2014: 4.3 Months; Nov 2015: 4.2 Months

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The

remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and

divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

J a n - 0 5

J u l - 0 5

J a n - …

J u l - 0 6

J a n - 0 7

J u l - 0 7

J a n - …

J u l - 0 8

J a n - …

J u l - 0 9

J a n - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

J u l - 1 5

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®



INVENTORY DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLYIN THE BAY AREA SINCE 2009

BUT REMAINED TIGHT

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The

remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and

divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

2.3

4.34.8

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15

Bay Area Central Valley So CA

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®



DEMAND OUTPACING SUPPLY IN ALL REGIONS

-2%-3%

4%

-5%

-10%

-8%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley

Sales Active ListingsYear-to-Year % Chg

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Nov 2015

2015-11 County Sales & Price Public PPT

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