2015-10-02 SMHI in the Arctic Lars Axell Oceanographic Research Unit Swedish Meteorological and...
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Transcript of 2015-10-02 SMHI in the Arctic Lars Axell Oceanographic Research Unit Swedish Meteorological and...
SMHI in the Arctic
Lars Axell
Oceanographic Research Unit
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
Outline of this talk
•Present activities:
• Climate Monotoring SAF
• DAMOCLES
• Climate research at the Rossby Centre
• Atmosphere-Ocean Forecasting
• Sensitivity studies using 1-D Arctic models
•Future activities
Cloud products of the EUMETSAT
Climate Monitoring SAF
•Atmospheric research unit at
SMHI
•Improvement of cloud
schemes in desert and in the
arctic (ongoing)
•Validation: SHEBA data (Oct.
1997 – Oct. 1998), etc
Product example: NOAA AVHRR CFC climatologies:total cloud cover - July, 2005
V1
V2
V3Area Extension
EPS - MSG
Merging (?)
MSG
HCP
NOAA
Climate Monitoring SAF:
Versions, operational introduction and areas
Version 1Jan 2005
Version 2Sep 2005
Version 3March 2007
GMT May 4 14:49:21 2001 OMC - kk+w 0 10002000
km
Inner Arctic Circle
MSG Area
Initial Baseline Area
Initialbaselinearea
CFC Cloud Fractional CoverCTY Cloud Type
CTH Cloud Top Height
CTT Cloud Top Temperature
CPH Cloud Phase
COT Cloud Optical Thickness
CWP Cloud Water Path
Time resolution
(hourly), daily, monthly, monthly mean diurnal cycle
Spatial resolution
(Pixel), 15 km x 15 km
Climate Monitoring SAF:
Cloud parameters
CM-SAF cloud products – main strengths
•Homogeneous product coverage over large areas – not available from any other
observation source
- Entire Europe, North Atlantic area and later the African and North Pole area
•“Objective” (or at least consistent) cloud observations
- not affected by subjective interpretation of ground observers
•High-resolution (15 km) cloud observations with Synop-comparable quality (< 1 octa)
and made both during daytime and night-time
•Improved information about vertical distribution of clouds
•Additional information on cloud physical properties
- essential parameters for more advanced radiative impact studies
•Available from a central facility reachable from all EUMETSAT member states
Climate research at the Rossby Centre:
Regional coupled model RCAO
• Rossby Centre research unit at SMHI
• Regional coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model of the Arctic
• Also used in DAMOCLES
• Coupled processes:• Ice-albedo-feedbacks• Surface temperature-
atmosphere dynamics feedbacks
• Regional Climate scenarios
The model’s LW downward radiation includes a contribution for the effect of auxiliary gases. A corresponding constant is varied between 5 and 15 W/m2
• 5 W/m2• 10 W/m2• 12,5 W/m2• 15 W/m2
The strong effect on sea ice includes a positive feedback via sea ice
Climate research at the Rossby Centre:
Dependence of Sea Ice on Long Wave Radiation
Climate research at the Rossby Centre:
Validation of clouds (Wyser et al., 2006)
Reference: Wyser et al. 2006
Total cloud cover atNy Ålesund/Spitsbergen
• To describe coupled processes
• Ice albedo formulation
• To describe changing coupled processes under changing large scale
conditions
• Does the model follow year-to-year variability?
• Does the model follow interdecadal variability?
• To prevent artificial drifts
• Salinity
• Are flux corrections necessary ?
Climate research at the Rossby Centre:
Challenges for the future
DAMOCLES:
Atmosphere-Ocean Forecasting
•NWP and oceanographic research units at SMHI
•Atmosphere: High-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM)
• Operational today: 22 km, 11 km, 5.5 km
•Ocean: High-Resolution Operational Model for the Baltic (HIROMB) set
up for the Arctic (HIROMA?)
• Operational today: 12 nm, 3 nm, 1 nm, (2” = 60 m in test, Brofjorden, Sweden)
•Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean experiments
•Resolution 0.1 degrees (11 km)
•Coupling time step 6 hours?
DAMOCLES:
Atmosphere-Ocean Forecasting (cont.)
•Purposes:
• Improve prediction capabilities of NWP tools
• Improve monitoring (analysis) of the Arctic and Europe
•Focuses:
• Improve data assimilation procedures for sea ice, temperature,
humidity, etc
• Improve parameterizations
•No results yet…
DAMOCLES:
Sensitivity studies using 1-D Arctic models
•Coupled 1-D atmosphere-ice-ocean model
•Complement to 3-D model studies
•Sensitivity studies:
• Explore parameter spaces over wide ranges
• Meltponds
Future activities
•Continuation of Climate Moniroring SAF
•Continuation of DAMOCLES
•Expression of Intent #113: ”High resolution data assimilation,
modelling and reanalysis for the Arctic (A reanalysis of the IPY)”
•Expression of Intent #154: ”The Study of Short-Term Arctic Sea
Ice Predictability: Sea ice forecast research in support of
International Ice Chart Working Group (IICWG) requirements
(IICWG – Sea Ice Forecast Research)”
•No funding yet…