2014.05.16 Thesis Presentation
Transcript of 2014.05.16 Thesis Presentation
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QUESTOR LAUCandidate for Doctor of ArchitectureUniversity of Hawaii School of Architecture
May 2014 Final Presentation
BLACK BOXES and GRAY SPACES:
How Illegal Dwellings Find Regulatory Loopholes
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REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT(In Honolulu)
The Black Box Building Permits
Add unknowndelays
Add unknowncosts
Response Big Data
Measure
Use + Structure
Civic Engagement
Image Source: http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2004/Jun/20/bz/bz04a.html
Homeowner
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BACKGROUNDHousing in Honolulu
8thAnnual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey: 2012. Ratings for Metropolitan Markets. Australia, Canada, China (Hong Kong), Ireland, New Zealand, United Kingdom,
United States, by Performance Urban Planning. http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf Last Accessed October 08, 2012.
Honolulu is Expensive In 2013, Honolulus Affordability
score (9.4)
Honolulu #1 unaffordable
housing market in the US.
Housing Cost vs Income(relative, not absolute)
#1 #4
#3
#2
Honolulu
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Top 3:Hong KongVancouver
Sydney
Housing Affordability & Land
Regulation
Median Home Prices 1991-2010
Honolulu prices remain
higher than US
Graph modified from http://www.hawaiibusiness.com/Hawaii-2011/January-2011/Hawaii-2011-Housing/ andhttp://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf Comparing Australia, Canada, China (Hong Kong), Ireland, NZ, UK, US.
DO REGULATIONS MAKE HOUSING EXPENSIVE?Housing in Honolulu
Regulation Restricts Supply Supply-Demand imbalance
Honolulu:
not enough housing
prices remain high
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http://www1.honolulu.gov/env/wwm/honoluluwastewater2012investorpresentation07192012.pdf
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ILLEGALACCESSORY DWELLINGS: GRAY SPACESCompare: Use vs Structure
Structure Built with a permit
Built to code: location, layout, dimensions
Suggests intent
Use Occupancy, how space is used
Doubles density in residential zone
I llegal
Accessory
Dwel l ings
Degree of Suspicion
No change in physical Structure. Change in Use
Accessory dwelling becomes
illegal when people move in.
Permit as a Rec Room used
as a dwelling unit.
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CASE STUDYTypology: EmbeddedAccessory Space
Single-Family Separate Entry
Extra Parking
1-story
2-story
Kitchen + Wet Bar
Required Affidavit
Affidavit Common variable
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RESEARCH METHODSGathering the Data
Building Permit Data 2011
Suspicious Plan
Actual occupancy NOT verified:
Tracking changes in use difficult, invasive,
difficult to measure.
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Punchbowl
UH
SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION PATTERN (2011)Preliminary Findings
Within Primary Urban Core, most
Suspicious Plans occur within the
Ohana Zone (green).
In Kailua, most
Suspicious Plans occur
beyond the Ohana Zone
Data expanded to look for trends 2005 to 2012 (8 years )
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Black Point$3.8 M avg
sales price
DiamondHead
PROBLEM SCOPESuspicious Plans occur even in the most expensive neighborhoods
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PROBLEM SCOPEHow Many + Where is the incursion?
Univ of HawaiiSchool of Architecture
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PROBLEM SCOPEHow Many + Where is the incursion?
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PROBLEM SCOPEHow Many + Where is the incursion?
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PROBLEM SCOPEHow Many + Where is the incursion?
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PROBLEM SCOPEHow Many + Where is the incursion?
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PROBLEM SCOPEHow Many + Where is the incursion?
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PROBLEM SCOPEHow Many + Where is the incursion?
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PROBLEM SCOPEHow Many + Where is the incursion?
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PROBLEM SCOPEHow Many + Where is the incursion?
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PROBLEM SCOPEHow Many + Where is the incursion?
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Industrial
Military Base
Military/Airport/Harbor
Military Base
PROBLEM SCOPEHow Many + Where is the incursion?
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Total % Type
5,680 37 % Illegal Accessory Dwellings
9,726 63 % Single and Two-Family Dwelling Units
102 < 1 % Ohana Dwellings
Annual New Residential Housing* Inventory (2005-2012)
Honolulu County
THE SYSTEM ISNT WORKINGShadow Inventory of Housing
100 %
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COMPARING RULESPolicy favors illegal uses
MOST/LEASTIllegal Accessory Dwlg:
leastrestrictions;
least costs
Ohana Units:
mostrestrictions,
mostcosts
REGULATIONS Infrastructure
Parking
Fees
IllegalAccessory
Dwellings have no
requirements
Il legalAccessory Dwelling
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Research Findings
No. of Bldg Permits IssuedHonolulu County
One & Two Family Dwellings:#Permits Issued vs Construction Value
Ohana Dwellings:#Permits Issued vs Construction Value
size limitremoved
Source: Dept of Planning & Permitting (figures rounded)
Qty
Co$t
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Gamma Map Diagrams
2ndfloor
1stfloor
Source: Plans redrawn from HonsadorLumber
LOOPHOLEIts not what is built that is illegal its how it is used
Legal Illegal
Accessory Single-
Family
Single-Family
Suspicious Layout Predesigned kit home
Separate entry
Easy to rent separately
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1st
FLOOR
Wet bar
Kitchen
7-0 CasedOpening
Suspicious Layout? What does the plans say
LOOPHOLE
Source: Modified from an actual permit
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LOOPHOLEIs this a single-family dwelling?
Source: Modified from an actual permit
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IMPLICATIONSIs the Census is Wrong?
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IMPLICATIONSIs the Census is Wrong?
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IMPLICATIONSIs the Census is Wrong?
HOUSING UNIT
(US Census Definition) A housing unit is a house, an
apartment, a mobile home or trailer,
a group of rooms, or a single room
that is occupied, or, if vacant, is
intended for occupancy as separate
living quarters in which theoccupants live separately from any
other persons in the building and
which have direct access from the
outsideof the building or through a
common hall.
http://www.census.gov/popest/about/terms/housing.html
http://www.census.gov/popest/about/terms/housing.htmlhttp://www.census.gov/popest/about/terms/housing.htmlhttp://www.census.gov/popest/about/terms/housing.html -
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IMPLICATIONSIs the Census is Wrong?
+
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IMPLICATIONSDiffering trends in urban growth pattern
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Single- and Two-Family Dwellings Illegal Accessory DwellingsUnits
(iADUs)
STATISTICAL HOTSPOT ANALYSISDiffering trends in urban growth pattern
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NewIllegalAccessory Dwellings
(2005-1012)
NewSingle- and Two-Family(2005-2012)
DIFFERENT TRENDS IN URBAN GROWTHUrban Futures
GreenM
ap:Modifiedfromh
ttp://www.oahum
po.org/download/additional_ortp_
20
35_
materials/OahuHouseholdsMap.pd
f
BrownMap:ModifiedfromC
ity&CountyofHonoluluDeptofTransportationServicesShortRangeTransitPlan,August2010
.
ProjectedHousehold Growth(2007-2035)
Workersby Primary Job
(2010)
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CIVIC ENGAGEMENTUrban Policy vs Urban Need
Maps Invite discussion
Address fears of change
ie. Parking
88% of illegal accessory dwellings
close to bus stop
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HH 3+ Vehicles Avail
HYPOTHESIS #3Null: The #iADUs created is unrelated to
Data provided by US Census: ACS 2011 (3-year) by tract
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Households w/3+
Vehicles Clustered at urban fringe
and North Shore
Data provided by US Census: ACS 2011 (3-year) by tract
SPATIAL RELATIONSHIP of VEHICLES to iADUsVehicles per Household
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iADU overlay suggests 3+ vehicle HH
not associated with
iADUs, but perhaps
Single-family homes
SPATIAL RELATIONSHIP of VEHICLES to iADUsVehicles per Household
Data provided by US Census: ACS 2011 (3-year) by tract
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Ohana Zone
HYPOTHESIS #1People Build iADUs because they were denied an Ohana Dwelling Permit
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Ohana Zone iADUs
HYPOTHESIS #1People Build iADUs because they were denied an Ohana Dwelling Permit
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Ohana Zone iADUs Intersect
HYPOTHESIS #1People Build iADUs because they were denied an Ohana Dwelling Permit
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Ohana Zone iADUs Intersect
Within
N=1,699
HYPOTHESIS #1People Build iADUs because they were denied an Ohana Dwelling Permit
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Ohana Zone Intersect iADUs
Random Sample
Sample Size CL 95%
n=42 15
HYPOTHESIS #1People Build iADUs because they were denied an Ohana Dwelling Permit
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SEWER CAPACITY NOT CHECKEDCapacity Not Checked
w/in Ohana Zone 5approved for SFD TFD
37built an iADU without checking sewer capacity
(potential legal Ohana Dwelling)
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RepresentativeRandom Sample (n=42, 95% CI) Ohana Zone + iADUs (N=1,699)
0 of 42 rejected for Ohana (sewer capacity).
5 of 43 (11.63%) approved for a 2nddwelling
(non-Ohana)
Within Ohana Zone, people who build Rec
Rooms are not applying for an Ohana
Dwelling 1st.
HYPOTHESIS #1People Build iADUs because they were denied an Ohana Dwelling Permit
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CORRELATION: iADUs and SFDsNull: The #iADUs created is unrelated to #SFD/TFD units created
R=0.84
P
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COMPARISON OF SOLD PRICE (2012)Single-Family, fee simple
Of the 112 new Ohana Units, only 4 were sold in 2012 not enough to do inferential statistics. Incidentally, sale prices of the 4 were: $1,082,500,$907,500, $665,000, and $1,280,000all above the median sales price, suggesting that legal Ohana Units do sell for substantially more than iADUs.
Caveat: sold homes are likely to contain iADUs that were either issued before 2005 or the home may have been configured into separate units without
obtaining a permit (ie. a doorway was added at an interior stairway, creating an up and dnstairs unit). Therefore, some noiADU properties may beclassified as iADU=yes.
Homes Sold w/ and w/o an iADU Indep Samples Ttest
iADU: $750,000 (9.85% higher)
noiADU: $615,550
All Homes: $625,000
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PROPOSALADUs in Hawaii Kai: Aging-in-Place where Sewer Capacity is available
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How to use this data? Strict Enforcement
Encourages illegal units
Verify housing units
Verify urban growth &infrastructure needs
Engage policy and people
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CONCLUDING THOUGHTSSocial Normativity and the law
I llegal
Accessory
Dwel l ings
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Thank you!
A portion of this research was supported by a grant from the
University of Hawaii Graduate Student Organization