20140113 - BTFD Monday Morning Asia

8/13/2019 20140113 - BTFD Monday Morning Asia

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2/29

ON TODAYS SHOW

AROUND THE GROUNDS OVERNIGHT, THIS WEEK WRAP OF THE WEEK IN MARKETSWHO WON, WHO LOST AND WHO LOOKED STUPID

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AS WE ENTER 2014

A TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE S&P 500, THE USD DOLLAR, THE NIKKEI, YEN AND THE AUSSI

GLOBAL CAPITAL FLOW UPDATE

A QUICK TOUR OF ASIAN DATA THIS WEEK

KEY EVENTS IN THE WEEK AHEAD


3/29

AROUND THE GROUNDS - STOCKS

Stocks Weekly Change This Week 21st Dec

Dow 1.12% 16,437 16,255

S&P 1.21% 1,842 1,820

FTSE 2.01% 6,740 6,607

Nikkei 0.26% 15,912 15,870

Shanghai -3.45% 2,013 2,085

ASX 200 0.89% 5,312 5,265


4/29

AROUND THE GROUNDSGLOBAL F

Global FX Weekly Change This Week 21st Dec

EURUSD 0.01% 1.3672 1.3670

USDJPY -0.11% 103.94 104.05

GBPUSD 0.91% 1.6480 1.6332

AUDUSD 0.83% 0.8992 0.8918

USD Index0.07% 80.63 80.57


5/29

AROUND THE GROUNDS - COMMODITIE

Commodities Weekly Change This Week 21st Dec

Gold 4.00% 1,249.00$ 1,201.00$

Nymex Crude -6.27% 92.89$ 99.10$

Copper 1.49% 3.40$ 3.35$

Bitcoin 47.81% 946.00$ 640.00$

10 year treasuries -1.04% 2.86% 2.89%


6/29

THIS WEEKNON-FARM PAYROLLS, ITS COMPLICATED


7/29

WINNERS

US dollar bearsnon farm payrolls need questioning

Stock bullsreduced taper?

European Peripherykidding right?

Gold Bullsits not dead YET


8/29

LOSERS

US dollar bullsYen, Euro, Aussie?

Growth Bullswhat is really going on

Global mining shares

Eurozone economywhat will it take for the ECB to do something?

0

0.050.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

Mar-03 Sep-05 Mar-08

AUD/USD

Relative performance o

market

MSCI Meta

Source: Bloomberg


9/29

STUPID

DRAGHIEUROPE IS NOT SLIPPING INTO

JAPANESE STYLE RECESSION BECAUSE I

SAY SO.


10/29

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN 2014STRONGEST FOR AGES


11/29

ANZ LEAD INDICATORS


12/29

CITI ECO SURPRISE INDICES

-100.00

-80.00

-60.00

-40.00

-20.00

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14

Citi Economic Surprise Index - USA

Citi Economic Surprise G10

Citi Eco Surprise EU

Source: FARM, Bloomberg www.GlobalFX.com.au

-100.00

-80.00

-60.00

-40.00

-20.00

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13

Citi Economic Surprise Index - BR

Citi Economic Surprise G10

Citi Eco Surprise EMkts

Source: FARM, Bloomberg www.Globa


13/29

PMI CONFIRMS PICK UP


14/29

SO DO BOND RATES


15/29

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK


16/29

USD INDEXRetesting the break


17/29

EUROUPTREND IN A DOWNTREND


18/29

S&PThe Big Picture

Hard mont


19/29

S&PDaily Charts

DailyOctobintac


20/29

ASX 200NYET!

Up doagain


21/29

NIKKEI AND YEN

Right on support


22/29

GOLDWedging for a break out?

Still Loreass


23/29

HOW LOW COULD THEAUSSIE DOLLAR GO

DANGER WILL ROBINSON


24/29

MINING SHARES ARE POINTING TO AUD

This is a ratio I uhelp me guess twas headed und

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

Dec-94 Jun-97 Dec-9 9 Jun-02 Dec-04 Jun-07 Dec-09 Jun-12

AUD/USD

AUDUSD v Mining/Sharemarket ratio

AUDUSD MSCI Metals:World ratio

Source: Bloomberg www.GlobalFX.com.au


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AUSSIE DOLLAR

The dowbut leavfor react


26/29

GLOBAL CAPITAL FLOWSINTERESTING TRENDS


27/29

THE IMPACT OF G3 PICKUPBetter G10 growth driving withdrawals from EMkts


28/29

A QUICK TOUR AROUND ASIA

For the whole year of 2013, Chinas total trade exceeded $4trn, andsurpassed the US to be theworlds largest trade country

Chinas December export growth slowed to 4.3% y/y, from

Novembers 12.7%. But the trade surplus narrowed to $25.6bn in

December even as the exports slowed.

The trade surplus in 2013 was close to $260bn, the highest since

the global financial crisis, adding pressure on RMB as a result.


29/29

WEEK AHEADUS DATA

Retail sales, CPI and the Beige book along with a raft of company earnings are out wh

give markets enough to find a few trading catalysts. Not to forget NAHB index and hou

or Industrial production.

And then of course we need to note the fact that markets pushed to extreme levels, o

on the weekend, especially in FX as we have discussed already today.

Australia has unemployment later this week and European inflation tomorrow night m

clarify whether the EU is on the road to Tokyo.

20140113 - BTFD Monday Morning Asia

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