2014 july 25 public opinion survey residents of moldova, june 7-27, 2014

International Republican Institute

Public Opinion SurveyResidents of Moldova

June 7–27, 2014

Detailed Methodology

2

• The survey was conducted by the public opinion and market research company Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The field work was carried out by Magenta Consulting.

• Data was collected throughout Moldova June 7–27, 2014, through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ home.

• The sample consisted of 1,200 permanent residents of Moldova older than the age of 18 and eligible to vote. It is representative of the general population by age, gender, education, region and size of the settlement.

• All regions of Moldova were surveyed (excluding Transnistria). Multistage probability sampling method was used with the random route and next birthday respondent’s selection procedures:

• Stage one: districts were grouped into 11 groups. • Stage two: selection of the settlements – cities and villages. Settlements were selected at random. The

number of selected settlements in each region was proportional to the share of population living in a particular type of the settlement in each region.

• Stage three: primary sampling units were described.

• The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent.

• Response rate was 54 percent.

• Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.

• The survey was funded by the National Endowment for Democracy.

http://www.gallup.com/region/en-us/europe.aspx

http://www.iri.org/

http://www.ned.org/


Growing Support for Democracy

How satisfied are you with the way democracy is developing in Moldova?

4

2%

2%

1%

5%

2%

2%

1%

3%

4%

2%

5%

3%

5%

3%

1%

4%

24%

26%

25%

21%

17%

21%

16%

27%

22%

27%

23%

29%

25%

23%

18%

41%

44%

44%

43%

41%

41%

42%

41%

37%

37%

40%

41%

36%

39%

36%

43%

30%

17%

14%

14%

18%

24%

20%

25%

20%

27%

21%

24%

21%

22%

29%

27%

16%

13%

14%

17%

15%

16%

15%

17%

14%

10%

10%

8%

10%

9%

9%

11%

9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Mar-04

Nov-04

Apr-06

Mar-07

Apr-08

Nov-08

Jun-09

Nov-09

Feb-10

May-10

Sep-10

Feb-11

Aug-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Jun-14

Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know/No answer

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Moldova are going in the right direction or wrong direction?

5

34%30%

33% 32%27%

31%

19%

40%37%

42% 33%41%

38%

22%21%

38%

58%61%

57%54%

58%55%

66%

42%

51%47%

54%

45%

53%

73% 74%

51%

8% 9% 10%14% 15% 14%

15%

17%12%

11%

13% 14%9%

5% 5%

14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Mar-04 Nov-04 Apr-06 Mar-07 Apr-08 Nov-08 Jun-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-14

Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/No answer

Are you going to vote in the upcoming parliamentary elections?

6

61%

58%

59%

55%

53%

47%

47%

66%

50%

77%

23%

31%

28%

30%

32%

34%

33%

21%

31%

15%

4%

4%

2%

3%

3%

5%

6%

4%

6%

3%

3%

2%

3%

3%

2%

2%

4%

3%

3%

4%

9%

5%

9%

9%

10%

12%

10%

6%

10%

1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Apr-08

Nov-08

Nov-09

Feb-10

May-10

Sep-10

Aug-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Jun-14

Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no Don't know/No answer


Moldovans Blame Russia, Yanukovych for Ukraine Crisis

Who do you believe is responsible for the current crisis in Ukraine?

8

26% 9% 28% 8% 10% 2% 16%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Previous Ukrainian government New Ukrainian government

Russia European Union

Certain groups of Ukrainian people Other

Don't know/No answer

How do you evaluate the following recent events in Ukraine?

9

39%

38%

29%

28%

22%

26%

17%

12%

24%

17%

14%

20%

46%

16%

29%

21%

25%

13%

32%

32%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Election ofP.Poroshenko as thePresident of Ukraine

Removal of PresidentV.Yanukovych

Crimea joining Russia

Appointment ofA.Yatseniuk as PrimeMinister of Ukraine

Referendum on self-ruleheld in Eastern Ukraine

on May 11, 2014

Positively Indifferently Negatively Don't know/No answer

What do you think the future of Transnistria should be?

10

80%

61%

65%

68%

69%

68%

72%

65%

60%

61%

66%

66%

67%

12%

21%

21%

19%

18%

17%

12%

16%

18%

20%

17%

16%

16%

1%

3%

2%

1%

2%

4%

2%

3%

5%

6%

6%

7%

7%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

4%

4%

4%

5%

5%

8%

7%

8%

8%

5%

7%

6%

4%

11%

7%

7%

6%

5%

6%

8%

9%

4%

4%

4%

3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Apr-06

Mar-07

Apr-08

Nov-08

Nov-09

Feb-10

May-10

Sep-10

Feb-11

Aug-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Jun-14

Ordinary region of Moldova, without any autonomy Autonomy within the Republic of MoldovaA part of the Russian Federation A part of UkraineIndependent Don't know/No answer


Moldovans are Concerned about the Economy & Corruption

What are the most important problems that Moldova is facing at the moment?

12

(Spontaneous, up to three mentions, problems mentioned by at least two percent)

43%

37%

25%

9%

9%

8%

8%

7%

7%

4%

3%

3%

3%

3%

3%

2%

2%

5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Unemployment

Low income

Corruption

Bad government

Emigration

High prices/Inflation

Roads

Poverty

Economic situation

Political crisis

Healthcare system

European integration

Instability/Chaos in the country

Crime

Education problems

Agriculture

Social assistance


What are the most important problems facing you and your household?

13


48%

12%

8%

4%

4%

3%

3%

3%

3%

2%

26%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Financial problems/Low income

Unemployment

Health problems


Poor housing utilities

Emigration

Expensive housing/Utilities

Water supply

Poverty

Bad social assistance


What are the most important problems your town/village is facing at the moment?

14


40%22%

10%9%

6%5%5%5%5%5%

4%4%4%4%

3%3%3%

2%16%

Roads

Unemployment

Water supply

Sanitation

Low income

Corruption

Inefficient work of civil servants

Transportation

Ecology

Cleanliness

Insufficient street lighting


Emigration

Education

Expensive housing/Utilities

Gas supply

Lack of leisure activities

School closing


Is corruption a big problem in Moldova today?

15

72%

66%

64%

60%

62%

61%

58%

53%

57%

59%

61%

80%

73%

81%

24%

25%

26%

25%

27%

31%

33%

37%

31%

33%

29%

15%

21%

14%

2%

3%

2%

5%

4%

3%

4%

4%

4%

3%

3%

2%

2%

1%

0%0%

0%0%

1%

0%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

0%

1%

2%

5%

8%

10%

6%

5%

3%

5%

7%

4%

6%

2%

3%

3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Nov-04

Mar-06

Mar-07

Apr-08

Nov-08

Nov-09

Feb-10

May-10

Sep-10

Feb-11

Aug-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Jun-14

It is a very big issue It is a big issue It is not a big issueIt is not an issue at all Don't know/No answer

Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation in Moldova changed?

16

3%

5%

3%

4%

2%

2%

1%

2%

2%

2%

5%

3%

5%

2%

2%

4%

23%

26%

24%

24%

13%

20%

9%

8%

11%

14%

18%

25%

23%

15%

13%

20%

37%

37%

36%

32%

30%

30%

22%

34%

24%

30%

28%

27%

34%

20%

31%

33%

25%

22%

27%

27%

29%

28%

42%

39%

38%

30%

26%

22%

17%

31%

28%

23%

9%

6%

5%

10%

20%

15%

20%

10%

21%

19%

17%

18%

18%

29%

22%

14%

3%

4%

5%

4%

6%

5%

5%

7%

4%

5%

6%

5%

3%

3%

4%

6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Mar-04

Nov-04

Apr-06

Mar-07

Apr-08

Nov-08

Jun-09

Nov-09

Feb-10

May-10

Sep-10

Feb-11

Aug-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Jun-14

Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the sameWorsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know/No answer

In your opinion, how will the economic situation of Moldova change in 2014?

17

6% 24% 29% 17% 7% 17%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Jun-14

Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same

Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot Don't know/No answer

Which of these statements is closest to your own point of view?

18

57% 24% 8% 11%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Jun-14

Our society needs serious reforms (structural and systemic change)

Our society needs gradual reforms which preserve the existing system

Our society has to be protected from the forces who want to change the current order



Moldovans on Government Performance

20

Moldovan Parliamentary Parties

Ruling Pro-European Coalition (holds 53 of 101 seats)• Liberal Democratic Party – 31 seats• Democratic Party – 15 seats• Liberal Reformist Party – 7 seats

Independent Parties• Liberal Party – 5 seats, split from the rulling coalition in February 2013, supports European

Union accession

Current Parliamentary Opposition (holds 43 of 101 seats)• Communist Party – 34 seats• Party of Socialists – 4 seats• Smaller Parties/Independents – 5 seats

What is your opinion about the job the Pro-European Coalition is doing?

21

8% 38% 30% 15% 8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Very good job Rather good job Rather bad job Very bad job Don't know/No answer

Do you approve or disapprove of the way the government is doing its job?

22

4% 38% 31% 21% 6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know/No answer

Overall, how much do you feel you can trust the government to do what’s right – a great deal, somewhat, not so much or not at all?

23

4% 34% 33% 22% 7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

A great deal Somewhat Not so much Not at all Don't know/No answer

Which politicians or public persons do you trust the most?(Spontaneous)

24

22%

21%

17%

14%

9%

7%

7%

6%

3%

2%

2%

1%

1%

1%

13%

25%

5%

Iurie Leanca

Vladimir Voronin

Vlad Filat

Marian Lupu

Dorin Chirtoaca

Mihai Ghimpu

Igor Dodon

Renat Usatii

Igor Corman

Irina Vlah

Sergiu Mocanu

Mark Tkaciuk

Michail Formuzal

Vladimir Plahotniuc

Other

None



2014 Parliamentary Elections

How much interest do you have in politics?

26

41%

48%

46%

49%

45%

46%

35%

39%

36%

41%

41%

36%

40%

29%

38%

39%

31%

28%

26%

29%

29%

31%

30%

30%

31%

29%

26%

29%

30%

33%

32%

29%

27%

23%

25%

21%

25%

22%

34%

30%

32%

28%

32%

34%

29%

37%

28%

31%

2%

1%

3%

2%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Mar-04

Nov-04

Mar-06

Mar-07

Apr-08

Nov-08

Jun-09

Nov-09

Feb-10

May-10

Sep-10

Feb-11

Aug-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Jun-14

Not interested Medium interest Interested Don't know/No answer

In your opinion, does your financial situation depend on the results of elections in general?

27

55% 29% 8% 2% 6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Yes, it depends No, it does not dependI don't believe in the election results I don't care about electionsDon't know/No answer

Thinking about the last parliamentary elections in Moldova in November 2010, do you believe those were free and fair elections?

28

49% 32% 19%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Yes, free and fair No, not free and fair Don't know/No answer

Which of the parties would you vote for if the parliamentary elections were held next Sunday?

And which other party might you vote for in the parliamentary elections if, for some reason, the party you have previously mentioned as your first voting choice does not participate in the elections?

29

24%

17%

9%

7%

3%

2%

2%

4%

2%

4%

25%

3%

8%

8%

6%

5%

1%

1%

5%

9%

9%

45%

Communist Party

Liberal Democrat Party

Democrat Party

Liberal Party

Party of Socialists

Popular Republican Party (Our Party)

People's Anti-Mafia Movement

Other

None

Will not vote


First choice Second choice

Which of the parties would you vote for if the parliamentary elections were held next Sunday?

30

25%

18%

10%

8%

3%

3%

2%

4%

2%

25%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Communist Party


Democrat Party

Liberal Party

Party of Socialists

Popular Republican Party (Our Party)


Other

None


Likely voters, n=1,101

Which political parties would you never vote for?

31

34%21%

19%15%

12%7%7%

6%6%6%

5%5%5%

4%4%4%4%

1%2%

3%26%

Communist Party

Liberal Party


Party of Socialists

Democrat Party

Social Democrat Party

Party of Regions from Moldova

Renaissance Party

Socialist People's Party

Moldova Patriot's Party


People's Force Party

National Liberal Party

Liberal Reformist Party

Green Ecologist Party

People's Party

Democratic Action Party

Other

None

Will not vote



International Relations

How would you assess the current relations between Moldova and the following?

33

78%

74%

50%

66%

68%

6%

9%

36%

12%

7%

7%

8%

9%

11%

9%

8%

9%

5%

11%

16%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

European Union

Romania

Russia

Ukraine

United States

Good Bad Neither good nor bad Don't know/No answer

Which of these countries do you consider to be the most important economic partners for Moldova?

Which of these countries do you consider to be the greatest economic threat to Moldova?

34

60%

51%

32% 31%

24%

2%

10%

28%

15%

8% 9%14% 16%

29%

Russia EuropeanUnion

Ukraine Romania United States None Don'tknow/Noanswer

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Partner Threat

Which of these countries do you consider to be the most important political partners for Moldova?

Which of these countries do you consider to be the greatest political threat to Moldova?

35

47%

42%

29%

23%20%

3%

19%

14%

29%

11%15%

9%13%

33%

EuropeanUnion

Russia Romania United States Ukraine None Don'tknow/Noanswer

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Partner Threat


Demographics

Demographics

48%

52%

23%

32%

46%

16%

20%

39%

25%

9%

76%

5%

4%

5%

1%

90%

5%

2%

3%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Male

Female

18-29 years

30-49 years

50 years and older

Unfinished secondary

Secondary

Vocational

Higher/Incomplete higher

Romanian

Moldovan

Ukrainian

Russian

Gagauz

Other

Russian Orthodox

Romanian Ortodox

Other

None

GEN

DER

AGE

EDU

CATI

ON

ETH

NIC

ITY

RELI

GIO

N

37

Demographics

38

2%

12%

1%

3%

4%

7%

5%

1%

5%

28%

7%

14%

5%

3%

29%

59%

9%

3%

0% 50% 100%

Manager/Director/Patron

Specialist

Technician

White collar

Services/Trade

Blue collar

Unqualified worker

Farmer

Student

Retired/Not working

Housewife

Unemployed/Looking for job

Unemployed/Not looking for job

Other

Bad

Average

Good

No answer

OCC

UPA

TIO

NSI

TUAT

ION

OF

FAM

ILY

Demographics

39

35%

40%

14%

32%

33%

10%

1%

3%

22%

22%

56%

0% 50% 100%

My salary or the income of enterprise or farmer activity

The salary or incomes of some of the members of family

Sale of products of the part-time farm

Use of products of the part-time farm

Social benefits

The help of relatives/Friends in the form of money or foodand goods

Something else


Chisinau

Mid-sized/Small town

Rural area

BASI

C SO

URC

ES O

F LI

VELI

HO

OD

SETT

LEM

ENT

TYPE

www.IRI.org | @IRIGlobal

International Republican Institute(202) 408-9450 | [email protected]

http://www.iri.org/

http://www.iri.org/



http://www.ned.org/

http://www.ned.org/

2014 july 25 public opinion survey residents of moldova, june 7-27, 2014

Presentations & Public Speaking

Transcript of 2014 july 25 public opinion survey residents of moldova, june 7-27, 2014