2014 / April COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK - World Bank · Commodity Markets Outlook is published four...

COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK

2014 / April

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tsOverview 7Energy 9Metals 12Precious Metals 13Fertilizers 13Agriculture 14

About the report

Commodity Markets Outlook is published four times a year in January, April, July and October. The report includes detailed market analysis for most primary commodities, including energy, metals, agriculture, precious metals, and fertilizers. It also includes historical and recent price data as well as price forecasts going up to 2025. Separately, commodity price data are also published at the beginning of each month. The report and data can be accessed at www.worldbank.org/prospects/commodities.

The project was written by John Baffes and Damir Cosic.

The design and layout of the report was produced by Marie-Anne Chambonnier and Kristina Cathrine Mercado. Indira Chand managed the media relations and dissemination. The accompanying website was produced by Mikael Reventar.

GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | April 2014 Commodity Markets Outlook

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FIGURE 1 Commodity price indices 7

FIGURE 2 Agriculture price indices 7

FIGURE 3 Oil price (World Bank average) 9

FIGURE 4 U.S. supply growth and disruptions elsewhere 9

FIGURE 5 Brent/WTI price differential 9

FIGURE 6 U.S. crude oil production 10

FIGURE 7 OPEC spare capacity and OECD inventory 10

FIGURE 8 World oil demand growth 10

FIGURE 9 Global crude oil consumption 11

FIGURE 10 Energy prices 11

FIGURE 11 Natural gas prices 11

FIGURE 12 Aluminum, copper and nickel prices 12

FIGURE 13 Lead, tin, and zinc prices 12

FIGURE 14 Precious metal prices 13

FIGURE 15 Fertilizer prices 13

FIGURE 16 Food price indices 14

FIGURE 17 Grains stock-to-use ratios 14

FIGURE 18 Grain prices 15

FIGURE 19 Edible oil prices 15

FIGURE 20 Beverage prices 15

FIGURE 21 Raw material prices 16

FIGURE 22 Biofuels production 16

FIGURE 23 Assets under management 16

List of tables

TABLE 1 Nominal price indices- actual and forecasts (2010 = 100) 8

TABLE 2 Global production (million tons) 14

TABLE A1.1 World Bank commodities price data 18

TABLE A1.2 World Bank commodities price forecast in nominal U.S. dollars 20

TABLE A1.3 World Bank commodities price forecast in real 2010 U.S. dollars 21

TABLE A1.4 Wolrd Bank indices of commodity prices and inflation, 2010=100 22

List of figures


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Overview

The key commodity price indices were broadly stable dur-ing 2014Q1 (figure 1). Energy prices changed little, only 0.4 higher than 2013Q4; agricultural prices increased 1.8 percent on weather-related concerns and metal prices declined 3.2 percent on Chinese demand weakness. A sharp increase in the beverage price index (14 percent higher than 2013Q4) was driven by a rally in coffee (Ara-bica) prices due to dry weather in Brazil—world’s larg-est coffee supplier (figure 2). The precious metal index changed little (up 1.1 percent from 2013Q4) while fertil-izer prices gained 5 percent on the back of strengthening natural gas prices. Despite geopolitical concerns due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, oil prices were stable during 2014Q1—they averaged $103.7/bbl, $1/bbl below last quarter’s average. A weather-induced increase in maize and wheat prices in late February and March 2014 was partly offset by declines in rice prices. The recent adverse weather conditions in South America have been linked to El Nino, which appears increasingly likely this year, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology.

In the baseline scenario, which assumes no macro-economic shocks or supply disruptions, oil prices are expected to average $103/bbl in 2014, just 1 percent lower than the 2013 average (table 1). This forecast is unchanged from the January 2013 Commodity Market Outlook edition. Natural gas prices in the U.S. are expected to remain ele-vated during 2014 and strengthen even more in the longer

term in response to stronger demand from energy inten-sive industries that are moving to the U.S. EU natural gas and Japanese LNG prices are expected to moderate due to weaker demand—both prices are tied to the price of crude oil. Coal prices are expected to weaken marginally in 2014 but will gain strength in 2015 and onwards as more coal will be used for electricity generation due to substitu-tion away from nuclear power.

Agricultural prices are projected to ease in 2014 under the assumption that current crop conditions will persist for the next crop year. Yet, considerable variation is expected to take place among various groups. Grain prices are expected to drop 10 percent while edible oils & meals, other food items, and agricultural raw materials will change little. Beverage prices are expected to increase more than 13 percent. Metal prices will decline an additional 5 per-cent in 2014 as new supplies will be coupled with weaker demand, especially by China. Fertilizer prices are expected to decline 11 percent in 2014 mainly in response to new fertilizer plants being built in North America. Similarly, precious metal prices are expected to decline more than 11 percent in 2014 as institutional investors increasingly con-sider them less attractive “safe haven” investment alterna-tives; reduced demand by China is expected to play a key role as well.

There are a number of risks to the baseline forecasts. Downside risks in the oil market include weaker demand if concerns regarding growth prospects in emerging econ-omies (where most demand growth takes place) material-ize. Over the longer term, oil demand could weaken fur-ther if substitution between oil and natural gas intensifies.

Source: World Bank.

Commodity price indicesFigure 1

Source: World Bank.

Agriculture price indicesFigure 2


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On the upside a key risk is an oil supply disruption in the Gulf and, increasingly, Central Asia. While such disrup-tion could add as much as $50/bbl to the price of oil tem-porarily, numerous other factors could affect the severity and duration of the outcome, including policy actions regarding emergency reserves, demand curtailment, and OPEC’s reaction. Yet, the price risks in the oil market are still weighed on the downside as the likelihood of a supply disruption during the remaining of the year is much lower now than it was a year ago for 2013.

Another source of uncertainty in the medium- and long-term outlook is how OPEC, and especially Saudi Arabia, will react to changing global demand and supply condi-tions as well as how fast other key players (including Iraq, Iran, Libya) could reach earlier output levels—it takes at least a decade for conflict-induced reduction in oil pro-duction capacity to reach pre-conflict levels. Since 2004, when oil prices exceeded $35/bbl (the upper limit of the $25-35 price range envisaged by OPEC at the time), the Organization has responded to price weakness by cutting supplies. But it has also increased supplies when prices exceed the current price range of $100-110.

Price risks on metals depend on new supplies coming on stream and growth prospects of China’s economy. Metal prices are down 13 percent since a year ago (q1/q1) and 32 percent lower from their early 2011 peak. The recent weakness reflects anemic demand growth and strong sup-ply response. The prospects of the metal markets depend crucially on Chinese demand, as the country accounts for 45 percent of global metal consumption (up from a mere 5% two decades ago).

Although the key risk in agricultural markets is weather, the risks for this season, which is quite advanced, are limited. According to the global outlook assessment released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on April 9, 2014 (the last for the 2013/14 crop year), the global maize market is well-supplied— production and stocks are 13 and 19 per-cent higher than last season. Wheat has improved, yet less so than maize (production and stocks up 8 and 2 percent, respectively this season). The rice market is well-supplied in response to a good crop and the large stocks, some held by the Thai government. Similarly, edible oil and oilseeds markets have limited upside risks. However, if 2014 turns out to be an El Nino year (a probability currently assessed at 50 percent), then oilseeds, wheat, and some tropical commodities may be subjected to upside price risks later in 2014 and 2015—in the past, El Nino has affected crop conditions mainly in the Southern Hemisphere. The last El Nino occurred in 2009-10.

Other risks for agricultural markets are mostly on the downside. The risk of trade policies impacting agricul-tural (especially food) markets is low as evidenced by the absence of any trade restrictions during the past three years, despite price spikes in several markets. Even the recent Russia-Ukraine conflict did not lead to any trade policies, contrary to widespread fears. The single policy risk would be a release of stocks by the Thai government. Some stock release last month exerted considerable down-ward pressure on rice prices—they averaged $422/ton in March 2014, the lowest since January 2008. Growth of biofuels has moderated as policy makers increasingly real-ize that the environmental and energy independence ben-efits may not outweigh costs.

Nominal price indices- actual and forecasts (2010 = 100)Table 1

Source: World Bank.

ACTUAL FORECAST CHANGE (%)2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

Energy 80 100 129 128 127 127 123 -0.1 -0.5 -2.8

Non-Energy 83 100 120 110 102 99 99 -7.2 -2.5 -0.6

Metals 68 100 113 96 91 86 87 -5.5 -5.1 1.3

Agriculture 89 100 122 114 106 105 104 -7.2 -1.0 -1.3

Food 93 100 123 124 116 112 110 -7.1 -3.3 -1.5

Grains 99 100 138 141 128 115 116 -9.3 -10.3 0.9

Oils and meals 90 100 121 126 116 116 113 -8.1 0.3 -3.1

Other food 90 100 111 107 104 103 102 -3.0 -0.8 -1.5

Beverages 86 100 116 93 83 94 88 -10.1 13.3 -6.7

Raw Materials 83 100 122 101 95 95 97 -5.9 -0.4 2.1

Fertilizers 105 100 143 138 114 101 100 -17.4 -10.8 -1.8

Precious metals 78 100 136 138 115 102 100 -16.9 -11.4 -1.8

Memorandum items

Crude oil ($/bbl) 62 79 104 105 104 103 99 -0.9 -1.2 -3.4

Gold ($/toz) 973 1,225 1,569 1,670 1,411 1,250 1,230 -15.5 -11.4 -1.6


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Energy

After reaching $100/bbl in early 2011 for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis, crude oil prices have fluc-tuated within a remarkably tight band around $105/bbl, which is also within OPEC’s “desired range” (figure 3). In fact, 2011-13 has been one of the least volatile 3-year peri-ods of the recent history of the oil market. This pattern continued in the 2014Q1, when crude oil price averaged $103.7/bbl, 0.8 percent lower than 2013Q4.

Fluctuations in oil prices have been driven mainly by geo-political concerns and output disruptions (Libya, Nige-ria) on the supply side, and changing developing-country growth prospects on the demand side. Geopolitical risks re-emerged following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the on-going tensions in the eastern Ukraine. Although oil prices spiked to $108/bbl on March 3, on the appar-ent Russian military intervention in Crimea, they retreated subsequently since no physical disruptions took place in the oil supplies. Russia, world’s largest oil producer, accounts for 12 percent of global oil production, thus any supply disruption either on the export side, in transit due to a conflict, or on the import side could have led to a significant price spike. On the positive side, the Novem-ber 2013 interim deal with Iran led to increased Iranian crude production (up 4 percent in 2014Q1), the first sig-nificant quarterly gain in years; exports increased as well. Iraq’s production surged in the 2014Q1 as long-awaited upgrades in the southern export terminals were brought on-line. The Libyan government has started negotiations with the rebels in the east who control the four export terminals, but the results have been limited so far.

Recent Developments

Supply disruptions in the Middle East have been counter-balanced almost barrel for barrel by rapid expansion of unconventional oil production in North America (figure 4). These developments have kept the global oil market broadly in balance and prices in the $100-110/bbl range for the last three years. The Saudi government—the bal-ancing producer with the largest spare capacity—has promised to keep the global market well supplied within that range, which it considers to be a fair price.

Increased Canadian oil production from tar sands, com-bined with rapidly rising U.S. shale liquids production (from horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing) have contributed to a build-up of crude oil inventories at a time when U.S. oil consumption is moderating and natural gas supplies are increasing rapidly. The stock build-up caused

Source: World Bank.

Oil price (World Bank average)Figure 3

Source: World Bank, International Energy Agency.

U.S. supply growth and disruptions elsewhere

Figure 4

Source: World Bank.

Brent/WTI price differentialFigure 5


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West Texas Intermediate (WTI, the U.S. mid-continent price) to diverge from Brent (the international marker) since early 2011. Although the spread reached a high of 30 percent late that year, it narrowed to 7 percent in March of 2014 as the southern leg of the Keystone pipeline was completed and began transporting crude from Cushing towards the refineries in the Gulf of Mexico (figure 5).

Non-OPEC oil output growth remains strong as produc-ers added some 0.7 mb/d to global supplies in 2012 and an additional 1.3 mb/d during 2013, mainly reflecting ear-lier large-scale investments. Output was flat in 2014Q1 at 55.7 mb/d. The U.S. added some 1.5 mb/d to global crude oil supplies since the beginning of 2012. Currently, the U.S. states of North Dakota and Texas, where most of shale oil production takes place, account for almost half of the total U.S. crude oil supplies—up from 25 percent three years ago (figure 6).

Supply shortfalls in Iran, Libya and Nigeria during 2014Q1 (estimated at 2.6 mb/d) were balanced by increases in Iraqi and Saudi output, thus resulting in a small increase in OPEC output— it averaged 36.5 mb/d in 2014Q1, up from 36.1 mb/d in the previous quarter. For 2013 as a whole, OPEC’s output declined by 0.7 mb/d. Yet, this production level is still 10 mb/d higher than in 2002Q2, OPEC’s lowest producing quarter in recent history.

OPEC’s spare production capacity that began declining in early 2010 has been reversed since 2012Q1 to reach almost 5 mb/d in 2013Q4, the highest since 2011Q1, before eas-ing back to 4.8 mb/b in 2014Q1 on increased output (fig-ure 7). According to the IEA, spare capacity in the global oil market may exceed 7 mb/d by the end of 2014, almost three times higher than 2004-08. Spare capacity will begin declining by 2016 as production in the U.S. slows.OECD industry stocks continued to decline to 2,535 million of barrels, their lowest level since early 2004, as cold winter depleted product stocks in the North America.

World oil demand increased by 0.8 mb/d in 2014Q1 (y/y) with all of the growth coming from non-OECD coun-tries, 1.1 mb/d vs. -0.3 mb/d for OECD countries (figure 8). In contrast to 2013H2, demand in OECD countries during 2014Q1 contracted. This is line with the pattern over the past few years where OECD demand has fallen by 4.5 mb/d, or 9 percent, from its 2005Q1 peak of 51 mb/d. Non-OECD demand remains robust. In fact, dur-ing 2014Q1, non-OECD economies consumed as much oil as OECD ones, 45.4 versus 45.6 mb/d.

Global natural gas market remains segregated by geog-raphy with price differentials between US, European, and Asian prices having reached the largest gaps during

Source: International Energy Agency.

OPEC spare capacity and OECD inventoryFigure 7

Source: World Bank, International Energy Agency.

World oil demand growthFigure 8

Source: U.S. Energy Information Agency.

U.S. crude oil productionFigure 6


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2014Q1. Shale gas production in the US has created a glut of supplies that have been walled off from the global markets as the U.S. companies lacked both export infra-structure and permits. Of the 31 facilities, so far only 6 have received export permits to non-NAFTA countries. In terms of capacity, 36 bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) of export capacity is seeking permits—roughly half of 70 bcf/d of U.S. daily consumption—while 9.3 bcf/d has been approved for export to non-NAFTA countries. Only one long-term export contract has been agreed and LNG is scheduled for export at the end of 2016 once retrofit-ting of the terminal has been completed .

Outlook and Risks

Nominal oil prices are expected to average $103/bbl during 2014 (down from $104/bbl in 2013) and decline to $99/bbl in 2015. In the longer term, real prices are expected to fall due to growing supplies of unconven-tional oil, efficiency gains, and (less so) substitution away from oil. The key assumption underpinning these projec-tions reflects the upper-end cost of developing additional oil capacity from Canadian oil sands, currently estimated at $80/bbl in constant 2014 dollars.

World demand for crude oil is expected to grow at less than 1.5 percent annually over the projection period, with all the growth coming from non-OECD countries, as has been the case in recent years (figure 8). Consumption growth in OECD economies will continue to be subdued by slow economic growth and efficiency improvements in vehicle transport induced by high prices—including a switch to hybrid, natural gas, and electrically powered transport. Pressure to reduce emissions due to environ-mental concerns is expected to dampen demand growth at the global level as well.

On the supply side, non-OPEC oil production is expected to continue its upward climb, as high prices have prompted increased use of innovative exploration techniques (including deep-water offshore drilling and extraction of shale liquids) and the implementation of new extractive technologies to increase the output from existing wells.

Last, prices of natural gas (in the U.S.) and coal are expected to remain low relative to crude oil and European and Japanese natural gas prices as has been the case during the past few years (figures 10 & 11). Some convergence in prices may take place but its speed (which is expected to be slow) will depend on several factors, including the development of unconventional oil supplies outside the U.S., the construction of LNG export facilities and gas pipelines, relocation of energy intensive industries to the U.S., substitution by coal, and policies.

Source: World Bank.

Energy pricesFigure 10

Source: World Bank.

Natural gas pricesFigure 11

Source: International Energy Agency.

Global crude oil consumptionFigure 9


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Metals

Following the collapse in metal prices in the wake of the 2008-09 global financial crisis, most prices regained strength and increased almost continuously. The World Bank metals price index reached a high of 126 (2010 = 100) in February 2011, up 164 percent since its December 2008 low (figures 12 & 13). This increase, together with the sustained increases prior to the financial crisis gener-ated large new investments and a strong supply response resulting in a cyclical decline since early 2011. Most of the additional metal supply went to meet demand from China, whose consumption share of world refined metals reached 45 percent at the end of 2012, up from 42 percent in the previous year (and 5 percent two decades ago).

Although the decline in prices was briefly halted during 2013Q4, it continued in 2014Q1 with the World Bank met-als price index declining 3 percent. The price declines dur-ing 2014Q1 reflect weaker Chinese imports amid a slow-down in investment activity as the government attempts to cool its booming property market. For example, growth of Chinese imports of aluminum, zinc, copper and iron ore has slowed to zero or turned negative in three months to February after experiencing growth rates in excess of 50 percent in three months to November.

The weakening in metals prices during 2014Q1 has been broad-based. Prices for lead, tin, copper, aluminum and iron ore declined 0.6, 1, 2, 3 and 11 percent respectively. Exceptions to this trend were nickel and zinc whose prices increased (up 6 percent each).

Source: World Bank.

Aluminum, copper and nickel pricesFigure 12

Source: World Bank.

Lead, tin, and zinc pricesFigure 13

Nickel’s strength is due to Indonesia’s imposition of an export ban on unprocessed ore in January 2014 as well as concerns that Russian supplies may be curtailed . The two countries account for nearly 40 percent of global mined nickel supply, a key ingredient in stainless steel. China relies heavily on Indonesian nickel ore to produce nickel pig iron, a less expensive alternative to refined nickel. If the Indonesian ore supply is permanently removed from the market, China will be forced to substitute with higher-grade metal, which could dramatically change the market which has been plagued with chronic stocks and over-sup-ply since the financial crisis in 2008.

Global stocks of metals at major exchanges have declined marginally (down 0.5 percent during 2014Q1), but they are considered elevated by historical standards. For exam-ple, nickel stocks are up 72 percent at end-2014Q1 (y/y). Aluminum stocks, which have been rising since end-2008, increased just 0.2 percent during the same period, but they remain near their 10-year peaks. Stocks of copper, lead, tin and zinc are all down (approximately 30 percent each) over a year ago, but nonetheless remain well above their 10-year averages.

Metal prices are expected to decline 5 percent in 2013 as new supplies will be coupled with weaker demand, espe-cially by China. Specifically, iron ore is expected to decline the most in 2014 (down 9.1 percent), followed by cop-per (-7.4 percent), aluminum (-5.2 percent), nickel (-3.1 percent), and lead (-2.5 percent). Tin is not expected to change much while zinc is expected to gain 3 percent. Most price risks are on the downside and depend mostly on the path of the Chinese economy.


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Precious Metals

Following sharp declines in 2013, precious metal prices stabilized in 2014Q1. The World Bank’s precious metals price index averaged 1 percent higher from the previous quarter (figure 14). The 1.5 percent decline in silver prices in 2014Q1 was balanced by increases in gold and platinum prices, 1.8 and 2.2 percent, respectively

After losing interest in gold during 2013 and slashing their exposure to exchange traded funds (ETFs), investors found new appeal in gold in 2014Q1. Although ETF hold-ings of gold are down—28 percent lower in March 2013 from a year ago—monthly outflows reversed course and registered an increase of 1 percent in March, the second monthly gain in 14 months. Platinum prices have strength-ened as well on labor strikes in South Africa’s mines.

Despite the recent strength, the overall weakness in pre-cious metals prices is likely to persist and the index is expected to average 11 percent lower in 2014 compared to 2013 as institutional investors will continue to consider them less attractive “safe haven” alternatives. Precious metals prices are expected to decline an additional 1.8 percent in 2015. Most risks are on the downside as eco-nomic conditions improve and the U.S. Federal Reserve eventually increases interest rates. Moreover, persistence of India’s restrictions on gold imports to curb its current account deficit and China’s efforts to regulate its “shadow banking” system may put additional downward pressure on prices given that gold has been used as collateral in financing deals.

Source: World Bank.

Precious metal pricesFigure 14

Source: World Bank.

Fertilizer pricesFigure 15

Fertilizers

Although the fertilizer price index gained 4.7 percent in 2014Q1, it is still 21 percent lower than a year ago (and more than 60 lower than its mid-2008 all-time high). Fer-tilizers are a key input to the production of grains and oilseeds, often exceeding half of purchased input costs. Because natural gas is an important input to some fertil-izers, the recent energy revolution and its resulting lower natural gas prices in the U.S. is impacting the fertilizer industry as well. Many fertilizer companies are moving their plants to the US in order to utilize lower natural gas prices. From a longer term perspective, this move is expected to put downward pressure on fertilizer prices.

The fertilizer price index is expected to decline almost 11 percent in 2014 and an additional 2 percent in the each of the next two years—this comes on top of the 17 decline in 2013. Among individual components of the index, phosphate rock is expected to decline 26 percent in 2014, followed by potash (down 16 percent), TSP (down 6 per-cent), and Urea (down 4 percent). DAP is not expected to change much. This outlook is based on the assumption the U.S natural gas prices will increase at a moderate pace.

Price risks in the fertilizer markets are balanced. Upside risks include higher than expected natural gas prices in the U.S. which may moderate the ‘energy dividend’ and hence lower supply response. Also stronger than expected demand growth by emerging economies where commer-cialization of agriculture (and hence more fertilizer use) could put upward pressure on fertilizer prices.


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Agriculture

Apart from the coffee-induced rally in the beverage price index, agricultural prices did not move much in 2014Q1. The overall agricultural price index is up 1.8 percent for the quarter but 4.3 percent lower than a year ago. Among key sub-indices, grains are up less than 1 percent for the quar-ter (almost 25 percent lower than a year ago). Likewise, edible oils & meals and other food items changed very little (figure 16). The large surprise was coffee (Arabica), which gained more than 60 percent in just two months, pushing the beverage price index to a 2.5 year high.

In its April 9, 2014 assessment (the last for the 2013/14 season), the U.S. Department of Agriculture maintained its improved outlook with production of maize, wheat, and rice expected to increase by 12.9, 8.5, and 1.1 per-cent, respectively from last season (table 2). Increases are expected in the stocks-to-use (S/U) ratios as well, up 7.9, 2.2, and 2.10 percent, (figure 17). The edible oil & meal outlook is comfortable as well with global supplies of the 17 most consumed edible oils set to reach a record 196 million tons in 2013/14, up from last season’s 188 million tons, a 4.3 percent increase. Global production of major oilseeds is expected to increase considerably, from 465 million tons in 2012/13 to 492 million tons in the current season (an almost 6 percent increase).

Recent Developments

After reaching record lows in December 2013, maize prices reversed course to end the quarter at $222/ton (figure 18). Although they are 5.3 percent higher than 2013Q4, they are still 31 percent lower than a year ago. Wheat prices gained ground as well to average $324/ton in March 2014, the highest since October 2013. The recovery in maize and wheat prices has been aided by adverse weather in the U.S. and (less so) in South America. Concerns that the Ukraine-Russia conflict may disrupt trade in maize and wheat (and hence trigger a price spike) did not materi-alize—these countries account for 12 of global trade in these two markets.

Despite the uptick in prices, the global grain market appears to be well supplied. In its April 2014 update, the U.S. Department of Agriculture placed the global maize production estimate at 974 million tons, up from 867 million tons in 2012/13, in turn increasing the S/U ratio from 15.4 to 16.6 percent. Similarly, the global wheat pro-duction estimate for 2013/14 stands at 713 million tons, increasing the S/U ratio from 25.9 to 26.5 percent.

Source: World Bank.

Food price indicesFigure 16

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture. (April 2014 update)

Grains stock-to-use ratios Figure 17

Global production (million tons)Table 2

Maize Rice Wheat Soybeans Palm Oil

1960/61 199.6 150.8 233.5 na na

1970/71 268.1 213.0 306.5 42.1 1.9

1980/81 408.7 269.9 435.9 80.9 4.9

1990/91 482.0 351.4 588.8 104.3 11.0

2000/01 591.9 399.3 583.2 175.8 24.2

2005/06 700.4 417.9 618.8 220.9 35.8

2006/07 716.1 420.5 596.5 236.3 37.4

2007/08 795.1 432.9 612.6 219.0 41.2

2008/09 800.3 449.1 683.5 211.9 44.2

2009/10 825.0 440.9 687.0 260.6 46.1

2010/11 834.6 450.1 652.4 264.1 48.7

2011/12 886.6 466.9 697.0 239.6 52.0

2012/13 866.9 471.3 656.5 268.1 55.8

2013/14 973.9 475.6 712.5 284.0 58.5

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture. (April 2014 update)


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Source: World Bank.

Grain pricesFigure 18

Source: World Bank.

Edible oil pricesFigure 19

Source: World Bank.

Beverage pricesFigure 20

Rice prices averaged $422/ton in March 2014, the lowest since February 2008. The U.S. Department of Agriculture assessment puts the global rice production at 476 million tons, almost 4 million tons above last season’s record. The S/U ratio for rice is expected to reach 23.4 percent in 2013/14, the highest since 2002/03. In addition to well-supplied conditions, the rice market has been subjected to the considerable stockpiling by the Thai government. Should Thailand release large amounts of stocks, rice prices may come under downward pressure.

The edible oil & meal price index moved slightly upwards, up 1 percent since 2013Q4 and 2 percent higher than a year ago (figure 19). Although little changes occurred in the three most important components of the index (soy-beans, soybean oil, and palm oil), some minor oils moved considerably, palm kernel oil up 21 percent and ground-nut oil down 15 percent since 2013Q4. However, soy-bean prices declined considerably in March (15 percent down from February) following an upbeat report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture that, based on planting intentions, soybean area in the U.S. will hit a record high. Drought concerns in South America have not impacted the soybean complex much.

The beverage price index was the big mover of the quar-ter, 12 percent up since 2013Q4 and 14 percent higher than a year ago, mostly aided by a rally in coffee (Arabica) prices, which increased more than 60 percent in just two months (figure 20). Because of adverse weather in Brazil, the global coffee market is expected to experience a deficit of 5 million bags, from an expected surplus of 1 million bags. Robusta and cocoa prices gained ground as well, up 15 and 6.5 percent in 2014Q1.

Although raw material prices did not change much in 2014Q1 (2.3 percent lower than a year ago), individual prices followed different paths (figure 21). Cotton prices are up 8 percent in the quarter and 5 percent higher than a year ago, mainly in response to the massive purchases by China, mostly for stockpiling purposes—currently China accounts for almost 60 percent of global cotton stocks, pushing the S/U ratio to 86 percent, the highest of the sector’s history. On the contrary, natural rubber prices have weakened considerable, down 11 percent since 2013Q4 and almost 30 percent lower than a year ago on ample supplies and weakening demand, especially by China—most natural rubber goes for tire manufacturing.

Outlook and Risks

Agricultural commodity prices are projected to decline 1 percent in 2014. Food commodities are expected to decline by 3.3 percent while edible oils & meals and other


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food items are not expected to change much. The larg-est declines among food commodities will be in the grain group with maize and rice down 13.3 and 15 percent, respectively (wheat prices will remain virtually unchanged). While edible oils & meals will change little at the aggre-gate, palm oil and soybeans are expected to increase 3.9 and 2.2 percent while soybean oil and soybean meal will decline about 2.5 percent each. Likewise, raw material prices are not expected to change much at the aggregate but a large decline in natural rubber (-14 percent) will be balanced by moderate increases in Logs (Cameroon) and Sawnwood (Malaysia).

A number of assumptions (along with associated risks) underpin this outlook. They include crop conditions, energy prices, and trade policies on the supply side and biofuels along with macroeconomic conditions on the demand side. On crop conditions, it is assumed that the remaining of the 2013/14 and the 2014/15 season’s outlook will be along normal trends. In its April 2014 update, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated the 2013/14 crop season’s grain supplies (production plus stocks of maize, wheat, and rice) at 2.57 billion tons, up 5 percent from last season. Such supplies are adequate to bring stocks to comfortable levels. Furthermore, given that the season is well advanced, the probability of adverse weather impacting the outlook is very low. However, as noted earlier, next season may be impacted by El Nino. Although to is too early to assess, if the 2014/15 season becomes an El Nino year, crops in the Southern Hemi-sphere are likely to be affected, including edible oils, oil-seeds, and tropical commodities.

The baseline forecast also assumes that oil price will remain elevated at $103/bbl in 2014 declining to $99/bbl in 2015. However, fertilizer prices are expected to decline considerably, almost 11 percent in 2014 and an additional 2 percent in 2015. Given agriculture’s high energy inten-sity, the easing of fertilizer prices will relieve some of the input price pressure that the sector has been subjected the past decade. Furthermore, given that oil price risks are on the downside, risks emanating from energy prices are lower compared to last year’s assessment.

Other risks, including biofuels, trade policies, and invest-ment fund activity, pose less of a threat now than they used to. With the exception of 2013 when biofuel produc-tion posted a moderate increase, production changed only modestly during the past three years (figure 22). Based on the experience of the past few years, if the baseline out-look materializes, policy actions are unlikely and, if they take place, will be isolated with only a limited impact. Last, investment fund activity, which was rising until two years ago appears to have stabilized (figure 23).

Source: World Bank.

Raw material pricesFigure 21

Source: International Energy Agency, BP.

Biofuels productionFigure 22

Source: BarkleyHedge.

Assets under managementFigure 23

GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | January 2014 Commodity Markets Outlook

17

Annex I

HISTORICAL COMMODITY PRICES AND PRICE FORECASTS


18

World Bank commodities price dataTable A1.1

Annual Averages Quarterly Averages Monthly Averages

Commodity UnitJan-Dec

2011cJan-Dec

2012Jan-Dec

2013Jan-Mar

2013Apr-Jun

2013Jul-Sep

2013Oct-Dec

2013Jan-Mar

2014Jan2014

Feb2014

Mar2014

EnergyCoal, Australia $/mt a/ 121.4 96.4 84.6 92.9 86.1 77.3 82.0 77.1 81.6 76.3 73.3

Coal, Colombia $/mt 111.5 84.0 71.9 79.3 71.3 65.8 71.1 68.4 71.3 69.9 64.1

Coal, South Africa $/mt 116.3 92.9 80.2 84.7 80.4 72.9 83.0 78.4 82.9 77.6 74.6

Crude oil, average $/bbl 104.0 105.0 104.1 105.1 99.3 107.4 104.5 103.7 102.1 104.8 104.0

Crude oil, Brent $/bbl a/ 110.9 112.0 108.9 112.9 103.0 110.1 109.4 107.9 107.4 108.8 107.4

Crude oil, Dubai $/bbl a/ 106.0 108.9 105.4 108.0 100.8 106.2 106.7 104.4 104.0 104.9 104.2

Crude oil, WTI $/bbl a/ 95.1 94.2 97.9 94.3 94.2 105.8 97.4 98.7 94.9 100.7 100.6

Natural gas, Index 2010=100 108.5 99.2 112.1 109.7 118.6 108.3 111.9 127.6 123.5 137.8 121.6

Natural gas, Europe $/mmbtu a/ 10.5 11.5 11.8 11.8 12.4 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.6 11.3 10.9

Natural gas, US $/mmbtu a/ 4.0 2.8 3.7 3.5 4.0 3.6 3.9 5.2 4.7 6.0 4.9

Natural gas, LNG Japan $/mmbtu a/ 14.7 16.6 16.0 16.2 16.3 15.6 15.7 16.5 16.7 17.0 15.7

Non Energy Commodities

Agriculture

Beverages

Cocoa $/kg b/ 2.98 2.39 2.44 2.21 2.31 2.47 2.77 2.95 2.82 2.99 3.04

Coffee, arabica $/kg b/ 5.98 4.11 3.08 3.35 3.20 2.98 2.77 3.83 2.93 3.83 4.72

Coffee, robusta $/kg b/ 2.41 2.27 2.08 2.28 2.14 2.04 1.85 2.12 1.93 2.11 2.32

Tea, average $/kg 2.92 2.90 2.86 2.94 2.89 2.79 2.82 2.65 2.87 2.58 2.50

Tea, Colombo auctions $/kg b/ 3.26 3.06 3.45 3.38 3.29 3.37 3.77 3.72 3.90 3.65 3.59

Tea, Kolkata auctions $/kg b/ 2.78 2.75 2.73 2.57 3.04 2.76 2.56 1.94 2.16 1.85 1.80

Tea, Mombasa auctions $/kg b/ 2.72 2.88 2.40 2.87 2.35 2.23 2.14 2.29 2.56 2.22 2.09

Food

Oils and Meals

Coconut oil $/mt b/ 1,730.1 1,110.8 940.6 836.7 838.7 912.3 1,174.7 1,151.7 1,270.0 1,365.0 820.0

Copra $/mt 1,157.3 740.6 627.0 553.3 560.0 603.3 791.3 766.3 848.0 915.0 536.0

Fishmeal $/mt 1,537.4 1,558.3 1,747.2 1,868.7 1,821.0 1,699.3 1,599.7 1,632.7 1,531.0 1,564.0 1,803.0

Groundnuts $/mt 2,086.2 2,174.5 1,377.7 1,360.3 1,400.0 1,380.3 1,370.0 1,355.7 1,366.0 1,320.0 1,381.0

Groundnut oil $/mt b/ 1,988.2 2,435.7 1,773.0 2,002.0 1,859.7 1,693.7 1,536.8 1,545.7 1,410.0 1,303.0 1,924.0

Palm oil $/mt b/ 1,125.4 999.3 856.9 852.7 850.3 827.3 897.3 875.7 865.0 908.0 854.0

Palmkernel oil $/mt 1,648.3 1,110.3 897.2 824.3 836.3 871.3 1,056.7 1,095.0 1,160.0 1,292.0 833.0

Soybean meal $/mt b/ 398.0 524.1 545.3 531.0 528.3 551.7 570.0 560.3 567.0 594.0 520.0

Soybean oil $/mt b/ 1,299.3 1,226.3 1,056.7 1,160.3 1,069.7 1,006.0 990.7 1,014.7 943.0 985.0 1,116.0

Soybeans $/mt b/ 540.7 591.4 538.4 566.3 505.3 527.0 555.0 556.0 566.0 591.0 511.0

Grains

Barley $/mt b/ 207.2 240.3 202.2 236.7 230.4 191.0 150.7 129.5 133.4 126.5 128.7

Maize $/mt b/ 291.7 298.4 259.4 305.0 291.3 241.9 199.4 209.9 198.1 209.3 222.3

Rice, Thailand 5% $/mt b/ 543.0 563.0 505.9 562.1 541.6 477.3 442.7 443.7 450.0 459.0 422.0

Rice, Thailand 25% $/mt 506.0 543.8 473.0 537.9 509.4 435.7 408.9 375.0 377.0 382.0 366.0

Rice, Thailand A1 $/mt 458.6 525.1 474.0 532.5 511.1 440.5 411.8 426.7 405.0 449.9 425.1

Rice, Vietnam 5% $/mt 513.6 434.4 392.4 401.5 387.8 383.1 397.2 391.2 402.0 393.2 378.6

Sorghum $/mt 268.7 271.9 243.3 292.0 259.9 219.2 202.1 224.2 215.7 223.8 233.0

Wheat, US HRW $/mt b/ 316.3 313.2 312.2 321.4 313.8 305.8 308.0 297.1 275.5 292.3 323.6

Wheat, US SRW $/mt 285.9 295.4 276.7 297.6 275.2 257.7 276.4 264.0 246.5 258.7 286.9

Other Food

Bananas, EU $/kg 1.12 1.10 1.02 1.10 1.07 0.98 0.94 1.05 0.99 1.05 1.12

Bananas, US $/kg b/ 0.97 0.98 0.92 0.93 0.91 0.93 0.93 0.95 0.93 0.95 0.96

Meat, beef $/kg b/ 4.04 4.14 4.07 4.27 4.11 3.89 4.03 4.23 4.14 4.19 4.37

Meat, chicken $/kg b/ 1.93 2.08 2.29 2.21 2.29 2.34 2.31 2.31 2.30 2.30 2.32

Meat, sheep $/kg 6.63 6.09 5.65 5.53 5.45 5.56 6.06 6.32 6.18 6.37 6.40

Oranges $/kg b/ 0.89 0.87 0.97 0.83 1.07 1.14 0.83 0.82 0.74 0.81 0.90

Shrimp, Mexico $/kg 11.93 10.06 13.84 11.26 12.24 15.15 16.70 17.09 17.09 17.11 17.09

Sugar, EU domestic $/kg b/ 0.45 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.44 0.45 0.45

Sugar, US domestic $/kg b/ 0.84 0.64 0.45 0.46 0.43 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.45 0.48 0.49

Sugar, World $/kg b/ 0.57 0.47 0.39 0.41 0.39 0.38 0.39 0.37 0.34 0.37 0.39


19

Annual Averages Quarterly Averages Monthly Averages

Commodity UnitJan-Dec

2011cJan-Dec

2012Jan-Dec

2013Jan-Mar

2013Apr-Jun

2013Jul-Sep

2013Oct-Dec

2013Jan-Mar

2014Jan2014

Feb2014

Mar2014

Raw MaterialsTimber

Logs, Cameroon $/cum 484.8 451.4 463.5 456.2 457.4 464.1 476.5 479.6 476.8 478.1 483.8

Logs, Malaysia $/cum b/ 390.5 360.5 305.4 322.5 301.8 301.1 296.3 289.8 286.6 291.8 290.9

Plywood ¢/sheets 607.5 610.3 560.2 591.6 553.5 552.3 543.6 531.5 525.7 535.3 533.6

Sawnwood, Cameroon $/cum 825.8 759.3 749.2 740.7 736.2 743.8 776.0 792.9 789.3 793.2 796.3

Sawnwood, Malaysia $/cum b/ 939.4 876.3 852.8 845.2 837.4 846.0 882.7 901.9 897.8 902.2 905.7

Woodpulp $/mt 899.6 762.8 823.1 784.0 818.7 830.9 858.7 865.0 865.0 865.0 865.0

Other Raw Materials

Cotton, A Index $/kg b/ 3.33 1.97 1.99 1.98 2.04 2.02 1.92 2.07 2.01 2.07 2.14

Rubber, RSS3 $/kg b/ 4.82 3.38 2.79 3.16 2.91 2.59 2.53 2.25 2.33 2.15 2.28

Rubber, TSR20 $/kg 4.52 3.16 2.52 2.96 2.45 2.35 2.31 1.98 2.13 1.89 1.92

Fertilizers

DAP $/mt b/ 618.9 539.8 444.9 491.6 489.8 432.1 366.1 476.1 438.3 490.6 499.4

Phosphate rock $/mt b/ 184.9 185.9 148.1 173.0 166.3 143.2 110.0 104.4 102.2 103.0 108.0

Potassium chloride $/mt b/ 435.3 459.0 379.2 390.8 392.3 391.9 341.6 314.0 323.0 309.5 309.5

TSP $/mt b/ 538.3 462.0 382.1 435.0 426.0 366.0 301.3 365.9 322.0 387.5 388.1

Urea, E. Europe $/mt b/ 421.0 405.4 340.1 396.6 342.4 307.5 313.9 337.5 352.6 344.1 315.8

Metals and Minerals

Aluminum $/mt b/ 2,401 2,023 1,847 2,000 1,836 1,783 1,767 1,709 1,727 1,695 1,705

Copper $/mt b/ 8,828 7,962 7,332 7,918 7,161 7,086 7,163 7,030 7,291 7,149 6,650

Iron ore $/dmt b/ 168 128 135 148 125 133 135 120 128 121 112

Lead $/mt b/ 2,401 2,065 2,140 2,290 2,053 2,102 2,114 2,101 2,143 2,108 2,053

Nickel $/mt b/ 22,910 17,548 15,032 17,296 14,967 13,956 13,909 14,661 14,101 14,204 15,678

Tin $/mt b/ 26,054 21,126 22,283 24,018 20,902 21,314 22,897 22,636 22,064 22,821 23,024

Zinc $/mt b/ 2,194 1,950 1,910 2,029 1,842 1,861 1,909 2,026 2,037 2,035 2,008

Precious Metals

Gold $/toz c/ 1,569 1,670 1,411 1,631 1,415 1,329 1,271 1,293 1,244 1,300 1,336

Platinum $/toz c/ 1,719 1,551 1,487 1,632 1,466 1,451 1,396 1,427 1,421 1,410 1,452

Silver $/toz c/ 35.2 31.1 23.8 30.1 23.2 21.4 20.8 20.5 19.9 20.8 20.7

World Bank commodity price indices for low and middle income countries (2010=100)

Energy 128.7 127.6 127.4 128.6 123.1 130.2 127.7 128.3 126.4 130.6 127.9

Non Energy Commodities 119.8 109.5 101.7 107.2 101.7 99.2 98.6 98.8 97.8 99.6 98.8

Agriculture 121.6 114.5 106.3 110.1 107.3 104.3 103.5 104.9 102.3 106.0 106.4

Beverages 116.0 92.6 83.3 84.5 83.3 82.2 83.1 94.5 85.8 94.6 103.2

Food 122.5 124.5 115.6 120.7 117.4 113.2 111.2 111.1 108.7 113.1 111.5

Fats and Oils 120.5 126.1 115.9 117.8 112.7 113.8 119.2 118.1 117.9 123.1 113.3

Grains 138.2 141.3 128.2 143.6 138.3 121.6 109.5 110.1 105.5 110.3 114.5

Other Food 111.1 107.1 103.9 104.0 104.7 104.7 102.4 102.8 99.5 102.5 106.6

Raw Materials 122.0 101.3 95.4 97.3 94.9 94.1 95.2 95.1 95.1 94.4 95.7

Timber 117.3 109.1 102.6 103.2 100.9 101.6 104.6 105.8 105.2 106.0 106.3

Other Raw Materials 127.2 92.8 87.4 90.8 88.3 85.9 84.9 83.3 83.9 81.7 84.2

Fertilizers 142.6 137.6 113.7 128.9 119.8 108.2 97.9 102.5 102.4 104.2 100.8

Metals and Minerals 113.5 96.1 90.8 98.7 88.2 87.8 88.5 85.7 88.1 86.2 83.0

Base Metals d/ 113.1 98.0 90.3 98.0 88.7 87.1 87.6 86.5 88.1 86.9 84.4

Precious Metals 136.3 138.5 115.1 135.2 114.6 107.4 103.1 104.3 100.6 105.0 107.3

Source: Bloomberg, Cotton Outlook, Datastream, Fertilizer Week, INFOFISH, INTERFEL Fel Actualités hebdo, International Cocoa Organization, International Coffee Organization, International Rubber Study Group, International Tea Committee, International Tropical Timber Organization, Internatonal Sugar Organization, ISTA Mielke GmbH Oil World, Japan Lumber Journal, MLA Meat & Livestock Weekly, Platts International Coal Report, Singapore Commodity Exchange, Sopisco News, Sri Lanka Tea Board, US Department of Agriculture, US NOAA Fisheries Service, World Gas Intelligence.

Notes: a/ Included in the energy index, b/ Included in the non-energy index, c/ Included in the precious metals index, d/ Metals and Minerals exluding iron ore.

Abbreviations: $ = US dollar bbl = barrel cum = cubic meter dmt = dry metric ton kg = kilogram mmbtu = million British thermal unitsmt = metric ton toz = troy oz .. = not available


20

World Bank commodities price forecast in nominal U.S. dollarsTable A1.2

Commodity Unit 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

EnergyCoal, Australia $/mt 84.6 83.0 86.0 87.3 88.6 90.0 91.3 92.7 94.1 95.6 97.0 98.5 100.0 Crude oil, avg, spot $/bbl 104.1 102.8 99.3 98.1 97.8 97.5 97.3 97.2 97.0 96.9 96.9 96.8 96.7 Natural gas, Europe $/mmbtu 11.8 11.4 11.0 10.8 10.6 10.4 10.2 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.2 9.0 Natural gas, US $/mmbtu 3.7 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.7 7.0 Natural gas LNG, Japan $/mmbtu 16.0 15.8 15.0 14.7 14.5 14.2 13.9 13.7 13.4 13.2 13.0 12.7 12.5

Non Energy CommoditiesAgriculture

BeveragesCocoa $/kg 2.4 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 Coffee, Arabica $/kg 3.1 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 Coffee, robusta $/kg 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 Tea, auctions (3), average $/kg 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 Food

Oils and MealsCoconut oil $/mt 940.6 1,000.0 980.0 971.7 963.5 955.3 947.2 939.1 931.2 923.3 915.5 907.7 900.0 Groundnut oil $/mt 1,773.0 1,700.0 1,750.0 1,759.8 1,769.6 1,779.4 1,789.3 1,799.3 1,809.3 1,819.4 1,829.6 1,839.7 1,850.0 Palm oil $/mt 856.9 890.0 870.0 862.7 855.5 848.4 841.3 834.3 827.3 820.4 813.5 806.7 800.0 Soybean meal $/mt 545.3 530.0 500.0 492.5 485.1 477.9 470.7 463.7 456.7 449.9 443.2 436.5 430.0 Soybean oil $/mt 1,056.7 1,030.0 1,020.0 1,018.0 1,016.0 1,014.0 1,012.0 1,010.0 1,008.0 1,006.0 1,004.0 1,002.0 1,000.0

Soybeans $/mt 538.4 550.0 535.0 532.4 529.9 527.4 524.9 522.4 519.9 517.4 514.9 512.4 510.0

GrainsBarley $/mt 202.2 150.0 160.0 161.9 163.8 165.8 167.7 169.7 171.7 173.8 175.8 177.9 180.0 Maize $/mt 259.4 225.0 235.0 234.5 234.0 233.5 233.0 232.5 232.0 231.5 231.0 230.5 230.0 Rice, Thailand, 5% $/mt 505.9 430.0 425.0 422.4 419.9 417.3 414.8 412.3 409.8 407.3 404.9 402.4 400.0 Wheat, US, HRW $/mt 312.2 315.0 305.0 301.9 298.7 295.7 292.6 289.6 286.6 283.7 280.8 277.9 275.0 Other FoodBananas, EU $/kg 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Meat, beef $/kg 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 Meat, chicken $/kg 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 Oranges $/kg 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 Shrimp, Mexico $/kg 13.8 16.5 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.2 13.0 Sugar, World $/kg 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Raw MaterialsTimberLogs, Cameroon $/cum 463.5 475.0 480.0 485.2 490.5 495.9 501.3 506.8 512.3 517.9 523.5 529.2 535.0 Logs, Malaysia $/cum 305.4 300.0 310.0 314.7 319.4 324.2 329.1 334.1 339.1 344.2 349.4 354.7 360.0 Sawnwood, Malaysia $/cum 852.8 890.0 905.0 921.1 937.6 954.3 971.3 988.6 1,006.3 1,024.2 1,042.5 1,061.1 1,080.0 Other Raw MaterialsCotton A Index $/kg 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3Rubber, Malaysian $/kg 2.8 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8Tobacco $/mt 4570.1 4700.0 4500.0 4463.7 4427.7 4392.0 4356.6 4321.5 4286.6 4252.0 4217.8 4183.7 4150.0

FertilizersDAP $/mt 444.9 450.0 445.0 444.5 444.0 443.5 443.0 442.5 442.0 441.5 441.0 440.5 440.0 Phosphate rock $/mt 148.1 110.0 105.0 103.4 101.8 100.3 98.7 97.2 95.7 94.3 92.8 91.4 90.0 Potassium chloride $/mt 379.2 320.0 318.0 317.2 316.4 315.6 314.8 314.0 313.2 312.4 311.6 310.8 310.0 TSP $/mt 382.1 360.0 355.0 354.5 354.0 353.5 353.0 352.5 352.0 351.5 351.0 350.5 350.0 Urea, E. Europe, bulk $/mt 340.1 325.0 320.0 317.9 315.9 313.9 311.8 309.8 307.8 305.9 303.9 301.9 300.0

Metals and MineralsAluminum $/mt 1,847 1,750 1,800 1,832 1,865 1,899 1,933 1,967 2,002 2,038 2,075 2,112 2,150 Copper $/mt 7,332 6,900 6,880 6,872 6,864 6,856 6,848 6,840 6,832 6,824 6,816 6,808 6,800 Iron ore $/dmt 135 125 128 130 131 133 135 136 138 140 141 143 145 Lead $/mt 2,140 2,120 2,150 2,160 2,170 2,180 2,189 2,199 2,209 2,220 2,230 2,240 2,250 Nickel $/mt 15,032 14,800 15,000 15,276 15,557 15,843 16,135 16,432 16,734 17,042 17,355 17,675 18,000 Tin $/mt 22,283 22,500 22,700 22,920 23,142 23,367 23,593 23,822 24,053 24,287 24,522 24,760 25,000 Zinc $/mt 1,910 2,000 2,050 2,083 2,116 2,149 2,183 2,218 2,253 2,289 2,326 2,362 2,400

Precious MetalsGold $/toz 1,411 1,250 1,230 1,216 1,203 1,189 1,176 1,163 1,150 1,137 1,125 1,112 1,100 Silver $/toz 23.8 21.0 20.5 20.6 20.8 20.9 21.1 21.2 21.4 21.5 21.7 21.8 22.0 Platinum $/toz 1,487 1,400 1,350 1,340 1,329 1,319 1,309 1,299 1,289 1,279 1,269 1,260 1,250

Next Update: July 2014


21

Commodity Unit 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

EnergyCoal, Australia $/mt 79.7 77.8 78.9 79.0 79.1 79.2 79.2 79.1 79.0 79.0 78.9 78.7 78.6 Crude oil, avg, spot $/bbl 98.1 96.4 91.2 88.8 87.3 85.8 84.4 82.9 81.5 80.1 78.7 77.4 76.0 Natural gas, Europe $/mmbtu 11.1 10.7 10.1 9.8 9.4 9.1 8.8 8.5 8.2 7.9 7.6 7.3 7.1 Natural gas, US $/mmbtu 3.5 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.5 Natural gas LNG, Japan $/mmbtu 15.0 14.8 13.8 13.3 12.9 12.5 12.1 11.7 11.3 10.9 10.5 10.2 9.8

Non Energy CommoditiesAgriculture

BeveragesCocoa $/kg 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 Coffee, Arabica $/kg 2.9 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 Coffee, robusta $/kg 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 Tea, auctions (3), average $/kg 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

FoodFats and OilsCoconut oil $/mt 886.9 937.8 899.4 879.6 860.1 840.6 820.9 801.3 781.9 762.7 744.0 725.6 707.7 Groundnut oil $/mt 1,671.8 1,594.3 1,606.1 1,593.0 1,579.8 1,565.7 1,550.8 1,535.2 1,519.2 1,503.0 1,486.9 1,470.7 1,454.8 Palm oil $/mt 808.0 834.7 798.5 781.0 763.8 746.5 729.1 711.8 694.6 677.7 661.2 644.9 629.1 Soybean meal $/mt 514.1 497.0 458.9 445.8 433.1 420.5 408.0 395.6 383.5 371.7 360.2 349.0 338.1 Soybean oil $/mt 996.3 965.9 936.2 921.5 907.0 892.2 877.0 861.7 846.3 831.0 815.9 801.0 786.4 Soybeans $/mt 507.7 515.8 491.0 482.0 473.1 464.0 454.9 445.7 436.5 427.4 418.5 409.7 401.0 GrainsBarley $/mt 190.6 140.7 146.8 146.6 146.2 145.8 145.4 144.8 144.2 143.5 142.9 142.2 141.5 Maize $/mt 244.6 211.0 215.7 212.3 208.9 205.4 201.9 198.4 194.8 191.2 187.7 184.3 180.9 Rice, Thailand, 5% $/mt 477.0 403.3 390.1 382.4 374.9 367.2 359.5 351.8 344.1 336.5 329.0 321.7 314.5 Wheat, US, HRW $/mt 294.4 295.4 279.9 273.3 266.7 260.2 253.6 247.1 240.7 234.3 228.2 222.1 216.2 Other FoodBananas, EU $/kg 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 Meat, beef $/kg 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 Meat, chicken $/kg 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 Oranges $/kg 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 Shrimp, Mexico $/kg 13.0 15.5 13.8 13.4 13.0 12.6 12.3 11.9 11.6 11.2 10.9 10.5 10.2 Sugar, World $/kg 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Raw MaterialsTimberLogs, Cameroon $/cum 437.1 445.5 440.5 439.3 437.9 436.3 434.4 432.4 430.1 427.8 425.5 423.1 420.7 Logs, Malaysia $/cum 288.0 281.3 284.5 284.9 285.2 285.3 285.2 285.0 284.7 284.4 283.9 283.5 283.1 Sawnwood, Malaysia $/cum 804.1 834.7 830.6 833.9 837.0 839.7 841.8 843.5 844.9 846.1 847.2 848.3 849.3 Other Raw MaterialsCotton A Index $/kg 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8Rubber, Malaysian $/kg 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2Tobacco $/mt 4309.1 4407.7 4130.1 4040.8 3952.9 3864.5 3775.7 3687.0 3599.2 3512.7 3427.7 3344.6 3263.4

FertilizersDAP $/mt 419.5 422.0 408.4 402.4 396.4 390.2 383.9 377.5 371.1 364.7 358.4 352.1 346.0 Phosphate rock $/mt 139.7 103.2 96.4 93.6 90.9 88.2 85.6 82.9 80.4 77.9 75.4 73.1 70.8 Potassium chloride $/mt 357.5 300.1 291.9 287.1 282.5 277.7 272.8 267.9 263.0 258.1 253.2 248.5 243.8 TSP $/mt 360.2 337.6 325.8 320.9 316.0 311.0 305.9 300.7 295.5 290.4 285.2 280.2 275.2 Urea, E. Europe, bulk $/mt 320.7 304.8 293.7 287.8 282.0 276.2 270.3 264.4 258.5 252.7 247.0 241.4 235.9

Metals and MineralsAluminum $/mt 1,741 1,641 1,652 1,659 1,665 1,671 1,675 1,678 1,681 1,684 1,686 1,689 1,691 Copper $/mt 6,913 6,471 6,314 6,221 6,128 6,033 5,935 5,836 5,736 5,637 5,539 5,442 5,347 Iron ore $/dmt 128 117 117 117 117 117 117 116 116 115 115 114 114 Lead $/mt 2,018 1,988 1,973 1,955 1,937 1,918 1,898 1,877 1,855 1,834 1,812 1,791 1,769 Nickel $/mt 14,173 13,880 13,767 13,829 13,889 13,941 13,983 14,019 14,051 14,078 14,105 14,130 14,154 Tin $/mt 21,010 21,101 20,834 20,748 20,661 20,561 20,448 20,325 20,196 20,063 19,929 19,794 19,659 Zinc $/mt 1,801 1,876 1,881 1,885 1,889 1,891 1,892 1,892 1,892 1,891 1,890 1,889 1,887

Precious MetalsGold $/toz 1330.8 1172.3 1128.9 1101.1 1073.8 1046.6 1019.4 992.4 965.8 939.7 914.2 889.2 865.0Silver $/toz 22.5 19.7 18.8 18.7 18.6 18.4 18.3 18.1 18.0 17.8 17.6 17.5 17.3Platinum $/toz 1401.6 1312.9 1239.0 1212.7 1186.8 1160.8 1134.5 1108.3 1082.4 1056.8 1031.6 1007.0 982.9

World Bank commodities price forecast in real 2010 U.S. dollarsTable A1.3


22

World Bank indices of commodity prices and inflation, 2010=100 Table A1.4

Commodity 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Price indices in nominal US dollars (2010=100)Energy 127.4 126.8 123.2 122.1 122.0 121.9 121.9 121.9 122.0 122.2 122.4 122.6 122.8 Non-energy commodities 101.7 99.1 98.5 98.6 98.7 98.8 99.0 99.1 99.3 99.4 99.6 99.8 100.0

Agriculture 106.3 105.3 103.9 103.8 103.6 103.4 103.2 103.1 103.0 102.8 102.7 102.6 102.5 Beverages 83.3 94.4 88.1 87.7 87.3 86.9 86.5 86.1 85.8 85.4 85.1 84.8 84.5 Food 115.6 111.8 110.2 109.5 108.8 108.1 107.5 106.9 106.2 105.6 104.9 104.3 103.7

Fats and oils 115.9 116.2 112.6 111.6 110.7 109.8 108.9 108.0 107.1 106.3 105.4 104.6 103.7 Grains 128.2 115.1 116.1 115.5 114.9 114.3 113.8 113.2 112.7 112.1 111.6 111.0 110.5 Other food 103.9 103.1 101.6 101.2 100.8 100.4 100.0 99.6 99.1 98.7 98.3 97.9 97.5

Raw materials 95.4 95.0 96.9 98.0 99.1 100.3 101.4 102.6 103.8 105.0 106.3 107.5 108.8 Timber 102.6 105.6 107.7 109.6 111.5 113.4 115.3 117.3 119.3 121.4 123.5 125.6 127.8 Other Raw Materials 87.4 83.3 85.1 85.4 85.7 85.9 86.2 86.5 86.8 87.1 87.4 87.7 88.1

Fertilizers 113.7 101.5 99.7 99.1 98.5 97.9 97.3 96.8 96.2 95.6 95.1 94.5 94.0 Metals and minerals a 90.8 86.2 87.3 88.0 88.8 89.6 90.4 91.2 92.0 92.9 93.7 94.6 95.5 Base Metals b 90.3 86.3 87.2 87.8 88.5 89.2 90.0 90.7 91.4 92.2 93.0 93.7 94.5 Precious Metals 115.1 102.0 100.1 99.4 98.6 97.9 97.2 96.5 95.8 95.1 94.4 93.7 93.1

Price indices in real 2010 US dollars (2010=100) c

Energy 120.1 118.9 113.1 110.5 108.9 107.2 105.6 104.0 102.5 101.0 99.5 98.0 96.6 Non-energy commodities 95.9 92.9 90.4 89.3 88.1 87.0 85.8 84.6 83.3 82.1 80.9 79.8 78.6

Agriculture 100.2 98.7 95.4 93.9 92.5 91.0 89.5 88.0 86.4 84.9 83.5 82.0 80.6 Beverages 78.5 88.5 80.8 79.4 77.9 76.5 75.0 73.5 72.0 70.6 69.2 67.8 66.4 Food 109.0 104.9 101.1 99.1 97.1 95.2 93.2 91.2 89.2 87.2 85.3 83.4 81.5

Fats and oils 109.3 109.0 103.3 101.1 98.8 96.6 94.4 92.2 90.0 87.8 85.7 83.6 81.6 Grains 120.9 107.9 106.5 104.5 102.6 100.6 98.6 96.6 94.6 92.6 90.7 88.8 86.9 Other food 98.0 96.7 93.3 91.6 90.0 88.3 86.6 84.9 83.2 81.5 79.9 78.2 76.6

Raw materials 89.9 89.0 89.0 88.7 88.5 88.2 87.9 87.5 87.2 86.8 86.4 86.0 85.6 Timber 96.7 99.0 98.9 99.2 99.5 99.8 100.0 100.1 100.2 100.3 100.4 100.4 100.5 Other Raw Materials 82.5 78.2 78.1 77.3 76.5 75.6 74.7 73.8 72.9 72.0 71.0 70.1 69.2

Fertilizers 107.2 95.2 91.5 89.7 87.9 86.1 84.3 82.6 80.8 79.0 77.3 75.6 73.9 Metals and minerals a 85.6 80.8 80.1 79.7 79.3 78.8 78.3 77.8 77.3 76.7 76.2 75.6 75.1 Base Metals b 85.2 80.9 80.0 79.5 79.0 78.5 78.0 77.4 76.8 76.2 75.5 74.9 74.3 Precious Metals 108.5 95.6 91.9 90.0 88.1 86.2 84.2 82.3 80.4 78.6 76.7 74.9 73.2

Inflation indices, 2010=100 d

MUV index e 106.1 106.6 109.0 110.5 112.0 113.6 115.4 117.2 119.1 121.0 123.0 125.1 127.2 % change per annum (1.4) 0.5 2.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7

US GDP deflator 105.2 106.9 106.9 109.0 111.2 113.5 115.8 118.1 120.5 122.9 125.4 127.9 130.5 % change per annum 1.4 1.6 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0


Notes:a. Base metals plus iron ore.b. Includes aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc.c. Real price indices are computed from unrounded data and deflated by the MUV index.d. Inflation indices for 2013-2025 are projections.e. Unit value index of manufacture exports (MUV) in US dollar terms for fifteen countries (Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, France, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Republic of Korea, South Africa, Spain, Thailand, United Kingdom, and United States).


232323

ENERGY

Coal (Australia), thermal, f.o.b. piers, Newcastle/Port Kembla, 6,700 kcal/kg, 90 days forward delivery beginning year 2011; for period 2002-2010, 6,300 kcal/kg (11,340 btu/lb); prior to year 2002, 6,667 kcal/kg (12,000 btu/lb).Coal (Colombia), thermal, f.o.b. Bolivar, 6,450 kcal/kg, (11,200 btu/lb) ; during years 2002-July 2005 11,600 btu/lb, less than 0.8% sulfur, 9% ash , 90 days forward delivery.Coal (South Africa), thermal, f.o.b. Richards Bay, 90 days forward delivery; 6,000 kcal/kg, during 2002-2005, 6,200 kcal/kg (11,200 btu/lb); during 1990-2001 6390 kcal/kg (11,500 btu/lb).

Crude oil, average price of Brent, Dubai and West Texas Intermediate, equally weighed.Crude oil, U.K. Brent 38° API.Crude oil, Dubai Fateh 32° API.Crude oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) 40° API.

Natural gas (Europe), average import border price, including UK. As of April 2010 includes a spot price component. Between June 2000 - March 2010 excludes UK.Natural gas (U.S.), spot price at Henry Hub, Louisiana.Natural gas LNG (Japan), import price, cif, recent two months' averages are estimates.

NON ENERGY COMMODITIES

BEVERAGES

Cocoa (ICCO), International Cocoa Organization daily price, average of the first three positions on the terminal markets of New York and London, nearest three future trading months.

Coffee (ICO), International Coffee Organization indicator price, other mild Arabicas, average New York and Bremen/Hamburg markets, ex-dock.Coffee (ICO), International Coffee Organization indicator price, Robustas, average New York and Le Havre/Marseilles markets, ex-dock.

Tea, average three auctions, arithmetic average of quotations at Kolkata, Colombo and Mombasa/Nairobi.Tea (Colombo auctions), Sri Lankan origin, all tea, arithmetic average of weekly quotes.Tea (Kolkata auctions), leaf, include excise duty, arithmetic average of weekly quotes.Tea (Mombasa/Nairobi auctions), African origin, all tea, arithmetic average of weekly quotes.

OILS AND MEALS

Coconut oil (Philippines/Indonesia), bulk, c.i.f. Rotterdam.

Copra (Philippines/Indonesia), bulk, c.i.f. N.W. Europe.

Groundnuts (US), Runners 40/50, shelled basis, c.i.f. Rotterdam.

Groundnut oil (any origin), c.i.f. Rotterdam.

Palm oil (Malaysia), 5% bulk, c.i.f. N. W. Europe.

Palmkernel Oil (Malaysia), c.i.f. Rotterdam.

Soybean meal (any origin), Argentine 45/46% extraction, c.i.f. Rotterdam beginning 1990; previously US 44%.

Soybean oil (Any origin), crude, f.o.b. ex-mill Netherlands.

Soybeans (US), c.i.f. Rotterdam.

Description of price series


2424

GRAINS

Barley (US) feed, No. 2, spot, 20 days To-Arrive, delivered Minneapolis from May 2012 onwards; during 1980 - 2012 April Canadian, feed, Western No. 1, Winnipeg Commodity Exchange, spot, wholesale farmers' price.

Maize (US), no. 2, yellow, f.o.b. US Gulf ports.

Rice (Thailand), 5% broken, white rice (WR), milled, indicative price based on weekly surveys of export transactions, govern-ment standard, f.o.b. Bangkok.Rice (Thailand), 25% broken, WR, milled indicative survey price, government standard, f.o.b. Bangkok.Rice (Thailand), 100% broken, A.1 Super from 2006 onwards, government standard, f.o.b. Bangkok; prior to 2006, A1 Special, a slightly lower grade than A1 Super.Rice (Vietnam), 5% broken, WR, milled, weekly indicative survey price, Minimum Export Price, f.o.b. Hanoi.

Sorghum (US), no. 2 milo yellow, f.o.b. Gulf ports.

Wheat (Canada), no. 1, Western Red Spring (CWRS), in store, St. Lawrence, export price.Wheat (US), no. 1, hard red winter, ordinary protein, export price delivered at the US Gulf port for prompt or 30 days shipment.Wheat (US), no. 2, soft red winter, export price delivered at the US Gulf port for prompt or 30 days shipment.

OTHER FOOD

Bananas (Central & South America), major brands, free on truck (f.o.t.) Southern Europe, including duties; prior to October 2006, f.o.t. Hamburg.Bananas (Central & South America), major brands, US import price, f.o.t. US Gulf ports.

Fishmeal (any origin), 64-65%, c&f Bremen, estimates based on wholesale price, beginning 2004; previously c&f Hamburg.

Meat, beef (Australia/New Zealand), chucks and cow forequarters, frozen boneless, 85% chemical lean, c.i.f. U.S. port (East Coast), ex-dock, beginning November 2002; previously cow forequarters.

Meat, chicken (US), broiler/fryer, whole birds, 2-1/2 to 3 pounds, USDA grade "A", ice-packed, Georgia Dock preliminary weighted average, wholesale.

Meat, sheep (New Zealand), frozen whole carcasses Prime Medium (PM) wholesale, Smithfield, London beginning January 2006; previously Prime Light (PL).

Oranges (Mediterranean exporters) navel, EEC indicative import price, c.i.f. Paris.

Shrimp, (Mexico), west coast, frozen, white, No. 1, shell-on, headless, 26 to 30 count per pound, wholesale price at New York.

Sugar (EU), European Union negotiated import price for raw unpackaged sugar from African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) under Lome Conventions, c.I.f. European ports.Sugar (US), nearby futures contract, c.i.f. Sugar (world), International Sugar Agreement (ISA) daily price, raw, f.o.b. and stowed at greater Caribbean ports.

TIMBER

Logs (West Africa), sapele, high quality (loyal and marchand), 80 centimeter or more, f.o.b. Douala, Cameroon beginning January 1996; previously of unspecified dimension.Logs (Malaysia), meranti, Sarawak, sale price charged by importers, Tokyo beginning February 1993; previously average of Sabah and Sarawak weighted by Japanese import volumes.

Plywood (Africa and Southeast Asia), Lauan, 3-ply, extra, 91 cm x 182 cm x 4 mm, wholesale price, spot Tokyo.

Sawnwood (Cameroon), sapele, width 6 inches or more, length 6 feet or more, f.a.s. Cameroonian ports.Sawnwood (Malaysia), dark red seraya/meranti, select and better quality, average 7 to 8 inches; length average 12 to 14 inches; thickness 1 to 2 inch(es); kiln dry, c. & f. UK ports, with 5% agents commission including premium for products of cer-tified sustainable forest beginning January 2005; previously excluding the premium.


2525

Woodpulp (Sweden), softwood, sulphate, bleached, air-dry weight, c.i.f. North Sea ports.

OTHER RAW MATERIALS

Cotton (Cotton Outlook "CotlookA index"), middling 1-3/32 inch, traded in Far East, C/F beginning 2006; previously Northern Europe, c.i.f.

Rubber (Asia), RSS3 grade, Singapore Commodity Exchange Ltd (SICOM) nearby contract beginning 2004; during 2000 to 2003, Singapore RSS1; previously Malaysia RSS1.Rubber (Asia), TSR 20, Technically Specified Rubber, SICOM nearby contract.

FERTILIZERS

DAP (diammonium phosphate), standard size, bulk, spot, f.o.b. US Gulf.

Phosphate rock (Morocco), 70% BPL, contract, f.a.s. Casablanca.

Potassium chloride (muriate of potash), standard grade, spot, f.o.b. Vancouver.

TSP (triple superphosphate), bulk, spot, beginning October 2006, Tunisian origin, granular, fob; previously US origin, f.o.b. US Gulf.

Urea, (Black Sea), bulk, spot, f.o.b. Black Sea (primarily Yuzhnyy) beginning July 1991; for 1985-91 (June) f.o.b. Eastern Europe.

METALS AND MINERALS

Aluminum (LME) London Metal Exchange, unalloyed primary ingots, high grade, minimum 99.7% purity, settlement price beginning 2005; previously cash price.

Copper (LME), grade A, minimum 99.9935% purity, cathodes and wire bar shapes, settlement price.

Iron ore (any origin) fines, spot price, c.f.r. China, 62% Fe beginning December 2008; previously 63.5%.

Lead (LME), refined, 99.97% purity, settlement price.

Nickel (LME), cathodes, minimum 99.8% purity, settlement price beginning 2005; previously cash price.

Tin (LME), refined, 99.85% purity, settlement price.

Zinc (LME), high grade, minimum 99.95% purity, settlement price beginning April 1990; previously special high grade, mini-mum 99.995%, cash prices .

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold (UK), 99.5% fine, London afternoon fixing, average of daily rates.

Platinum (UK), 99.9% refined, London afternoon fixing.

Silver (UK), 99.9% refined, London afternoon fixing; prior to July 1976 Handy & Harman. Grade prior to 1962 unrefined silver.

2014 / April COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK - World Bank · Commodity Markets Outlook is published four...

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Transcript of 2014 / April COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK - World Bank · Commodity Markets Outlook is published four...