MEPs per Political Group

274

194

85

58

57

3531

32

EPP

S&D

ALDE

Greens/EFA

ECR

GUE/NGL

EFD

NI

766

Source:European Parliament

Group Full name Political orientation Seats*

EPP European People’s Party

Christian Democrat Centre-right

274

S&D Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats

Social Democrat Centre-left

194

ALDE Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe

Liberal Centre

85

Greens/EFA Greens/European Free Alliance

Green 58

ECR European Conservative and Reformists

Conservative 57

GUE/NGL European United Left – Nordic Green Left

Left wing 35

EFD European Freedom and Democracy

EU-sceptic Right wing

31

NI Non-Aligned 32* 6 March 2014

2014 A year of change for the EU

Introduction • The European Parliament elections will take place in

May 2014 and will be followed by the appointment of a new European Commission, setting the tone and direction of EU policy-making for the next five years.

• The institutions will continue to drive policy and regulation at regional level for financial services, environment, energy, infrastructures, data protection, competition policy, agriculture, foreign policy and trade. As they establish the regulatory framework for the whole European region, their influence goes beyond European borders and will impact all EU trade and political partners.

• This brochure explains the procedural aspects of the European Parliament elections and how the next Commission is appointed, including a timeline with key events until the end of the year.

• Likely candidates for other top level European positions such as the President of the European Council are briefly presented.

A new political climate? • The key questions determining the cooperation and

political dynamic between the European institutions over the next years include continued fiscal consolidation policies; international relations and international trade; and whether more European integration or re-nationalisation is the way to move forward.

• In addition, the intensity of the debate will be fuelled by the large number of new Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) from the far left and far right that will be focused on overhauling the status quo at all costs.

• Ultimately, the question of who sits behind the steering wheel will be determined by the nature of the relationship the next Commission President has with the new Parliament and the 28 Member States. Traditionally, the Commission has not succeeded in wrestling the political initiative from the national governments. A closer political alignment between the Parliament and the Commission would be necessary to reverse this long-term trend, which is unlikely given that neither the Christian Democrats nor the Social Democrats will emerge as clear winners of the elections.

Composition of the current European Parliament

The parliamentary groups explained

NI NI/Far right group (++)

GUE/NGL (+)

S&D (+)

ECR (-)

Greens/EFA (-)

ALDE (-)

EPP (--)

+

-EFD

Number of MEPs per Member State96

747373

5451

3226

212121212120

1817

131313

11111188

6666

Germany

France

Italy

United Kingdom

Spain

Poland

Romania

Netherlands

Belgium

Czech Republic

Greece

Hungary

Portugal

Sweden

Austria

Bulgaria

Denmark

Slovakia

Finland

Ireland

Croatia

Lithuania

Latvia

Slovenia

Estonia

Cyprus

Luxembourg

Malta

European Parliament electionsElection Process• 751 MEPs* to be elected in 28 Member States from 22-25 May• Number of seats allocated to Member States range from 96 (Germany)

to 6 (Estonia, Malta, Luxembourg, and Cyprus)• Most Member States, including the UK, apply proportional

representation systems, and some of them have set a 4-5% threshold for election

• Several Member States also divide their electorate into regional constituencies

Projections• No clear winner will emerge• The centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) and the centre-

left Social Democrats (S&D) in a neck and neck race to become the biggest political group

• Losses for liberals (ALDE) and Greens (Greens/EFA), gains for European United Left/Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL)

• A new political group might emerge on the far right, uniting

nationalist parties like the French Front National, the Dutch Party of Freedom, and the Austrian Freedom Party

• Closer cooperation between EPP and S&D in informal “grand coalition” could lead to reduced “kingmaker” role for ALDE

• There is a chance that we will see up to 40% turnover of MEPs. This will have an impact on engaging with the Parliament as it always takes time for newcomers to establish themselves

European Commissioners standing for elections• For the moment, four Commissioners have officially announced that they

will stand for elections: Olli Rehn (Finland), Karel de Gucht (Belgium), Maroš Šefčovič (Slovakia), and Neven Mimica (Croatia)

• Two more are rumoured to consider joining the race: Viviane Reding (Luxembourg) and Janusz Lewandowski (Poland)

• They will have to take a leave of absence from 17 April until 22-25 May• Their portfolios will be taken over temporarily by one of their remaining

colleagues• If elected, a Commissioner would have to stand down from the Commission

in order to take his/her seat in the Parliament

The next European Parliament

Total 751*

* The number of MEPs will be reduced from the current 766 to 751

Potential new political group on the far right • Far right parties from several Member States are likely to

form a post-election alliance to leverage their increased size. The group could include up to 45 MEPs

• The initiative is driven primarily by Marine Le Pen (Front National, France), Geert Wilders (Partij voor de Vrijheid, The Netherlands) and Hans-Christian Strache (Freiheitliche Partei Österreich, Austria)

• Other far right parties expected to join such an alliance include the Belgian Vlaams Belang, Italian Lega Nord and Swedish Sverigedemokraterna

• 25 MEPs from at least 7 Member States are necessary to form a political group in the European Parliament

Formation of a new Commission• Member States propose one Commissioner each• The Commission President assigns policy portfolios to the

nominees (although this is negotiated with Member States)• After approval of the new College by the Member States, the

appropriate Parliament Committees hold hearings with the future Commissioners

• The Parliament has to give its consent to the entire Commission – it cannot “cherry pick” individual Commissioners. However, in

the past MEPs have used this power to demand the replacement of individual candidates found lacking in expertise or ethics by threatening to reject the whole Commission if individuals are not replaced

• Once the European Parliament has approved the new Commission, the European Council officially appoints it

• Current Commission’s term ends on 31 October 2014 (extendable)

Appointment of the Commission President• Nominated by the European Council, which brings together the

Heads of State or Government of the EU’s 28 Member States• Needs the support of at least 376 MEPs to have the European

Parliament’s confirmation• Lisbon Treaty provisions say that the European Council has to “take

into account” the results of the elections when nominating a candidate to the European Parliament

• The Parliament and Europe-wide political parties interpreted this as

a call to personalize the election process and nominated their own main candidates for the Commission Presidency

• Member States intend to retain control of the nomination process• A political deadlock between Parliament and Member States over

who will become the next Commission President might lead to an extended term of the current Commission

Potential compromise candidates• Viable compromise candidates might emerge at a later stage in the negotiation process between Parliament and Member States

The next European Commission

Main candidates for Commission President• A televised debate between the nominated main candidates is foreseen for 15 May, organised by the European Broadcasting Union

Christine LagardeFrance, EPPIMF Managing Director

Jyrki KatainenFinland, EPPPrime Minister

Enda KennyIreland, EPPPrime Minister

Helle Thorning-SchmidtDenmark, S&DPrime Minister

Enrico LettaItaly, S&DFormer Prime Minister

Pascal LamyFrance, S&DFormer WTO Director-General

Martin SchulzGermany, S&DPresident of the European Parliament

Guy VerhofstadtBelgium, ALDEPresident ALDE Group

Jean-Claude JunckerLuxembourg, EPPFormer Prime Minister

Ska KellerGermany, Greens/EFAMEP

José BovéFrance, Greens/EFAMEP

Alexis TsiprasGreece, GUE/NGLGreek MP

1

2

High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security

President of the European Council

(Possible) Permanent President of the Eurogroup

Contact Brunswick Brussels

CurrentlyCatherine AshtonUK, S&D

Herman Van RompuyBelgium, EPP

Frans TimmermansThe Netherlands, S&DForeign Minister

Radoslaw SikorskiPoland, EPPForeign Minister

Carl BildtSweden, ALDEForeign Minister

Anders Fogh RasmussenDenmark, ALDENATO Secretary General

Jean-Claude JunckerBelgium, EPPFormer Prime Minister

Fredrik ReinfeldtSweden, EPPPrime Minister

Anders Fogh RasmussenDenmark, ALDENATO Secretary General

Dalia Grybauskaitė Lithuania, EPPPresident

Potential Candidates

Candidates for other high level positions to be filled in 2014

General notes• Member States try to achieve a balanced representation between

political orientation, gender, and geographical provenance when filling such positions

• It is considered an unwritten rule that at least some high level positions will go to a woman and to politicians from the newer Member States in Central and Eastern Europe

Address27 Avenue Des Arts1040 BrusselsBelgium

Tel.+32 2 235 6510

Fax+32 2 235 6522

Emailbrusselsoffice@brunswickgroup.com

Jeroen DijsselbloemThe Netherlands, S&D

Pierre MoscoviciFrance, S&DMinister of Finance

President of the European Parliament

Martin SchulzGermany, S&D

Viviane RedingLuxembourg, EPPEuropean Commissioner

Olli RehnFinland, ALDEEuropean Commissioner

NATO Secretary General

Anders Fogh RasmussenDenmark, ALDE

Liam FoxUK, ECRFormer Secretary of State for Defence

Thomas de MaizièreGermany, EPPFederal Minister of the Interior

Pieter de CremBelgium, EPPMinister of Defence

Franco FrattiniItaly, EPPFormer Minister of Foreign Affairs

Timeline until the end of 2014

April May June July August September October November December

14-17/4Last Plenary

15/5Televised debate of main candidates

14-17/7EP vote on Commission President (expected)

30/11End of Van Rompuy’s term as European Council President

26-27/6European Council Summit – Nomination of new Commission President

27/5EP Post-Electoral Meeting

July-AugustNomination of new College of Commissioners

September-October EP hearings with proposed Commissioners

31/10End of term for Barroso Commission (extendable)

European Parliament

European Council

European Commission

22-25/5 European Elections

27/5European Council Post-Electoral Meeting