2014 2024 GLOBAL ENGINE MRO: ENGINE SESSION MRO...

©TeamSAI

2014–2024 GLOBAL ENGINE MRO: ENGINE SESSION

MRO EUROPE CONFERENCE

APRIL 2014

10/08/2014

Tom Cooper Executive Vice President & Principal

TeamSAI Consulting

©TeamSAI

ENGINE FLEET

FORECAST

2 10/08/2014

©TeamSAI 3

CURRENT WORLD ENGINE FLEET BY REGION

10/08/2014

• In 2014 there were more than 48,000

engines powering the world’s

commercial fleet

• North America constitutes the largest

region (31%)

–WE and AP round out the top 3

–Top 3 combined represent 69%

• Bottom six regions make up a

growing share of the market

–Growing from 31% to 41% in 10 years

Source: Ascend Online, TeamSAI Consulting Services analysis

World Regions:

AF Africa

AP Asia Pacific

CH China

EE Eastern Europe

IN India

LA&C Latin America & Caribbean

ME Middle East

NA North America

WE Western Europe

©TeamSAI 4

2014-2024 FLEET FORECAST

10/08/2014

• Engine fleet is expected to increase at 3.4% CAGR over the forecast period

–3.7% (2014-19) and 3.0% (2019-24)

–This is an increase of 19,085 engines in 10 years

• North America represents more than 30% of the fleet in 2014, but its share will

fall to less than a quarter by 2024

–Slower CAGR (0.7% 2014-24)

©TeamSAI 5

CURRENT AND FORECAST ENGINE FLEET BY ENGINE MANUFACTURER

10/08/2014

• By 2024, there will be nearly 68,000

engines powering the world’s

commercial fleet

• Today, the top 3 engine

manufacturers are CFMI, GE, and

Pratt & Whitney

• Rolls-Royce and IAE fleet of engines

fall in the 5000-10000 range

–Completing the list of top 5

manufacturers

• CFM International’s fleet had the

largest share (36%)

–16 points larger than the next largest

fleet

–CFMI’s installed base will widen the gap

by 2024, growing share to over 40%


©TeamSAI 6

TOP 10 ENGINE TYPES BY 2024

10/08/2014

• New engine variants will be

introduced

–Leap X1A/B/C, Trent XWB, PW1000G

• In 2014, no single engine type has a

dominant share

–CFM56-7B has the largest share (18%),

but there is a long tail to this distribution

–By 2019 though, -7B will have greatly

increased fleet size by almost 3,500

–By 2024, -7B could begin to see a

decline in fleet size as the 737NG fleet

recedes and MAX takes hold

• Most of this growth is forecast for the

first 5 years of the 10-year forecast

–Though absolute growth is relatively

balanced

• Net growth of >9000 engines in each half of

the forecast


©TeamSAI

ENGINE MRO OUTLOOK

7 10/08/2014

©TeamSAI 8

GLOBAL ENGINE MRO IS THE LARGEST MRO SEGMENT

10/08/2014

Source: TeamSAI

Consulting Services analysis

• Global growth is expected to maintain a 4.1%

CAGR through 2023

• Most of the growth is expected in first

half of the forecast

• Growth in second half of forecast is

much slower as new generation aircraft

enter the fleet and older aircraft retire

• $22.1B industry will grow to $33.2B over 10-

year forecast period

Source: TeamSAI Consulting Services analysis

©TeamSAI 9

GLOBAL AND EUROPEAN ENGINE MRO GROWTH RATES

10/08/2014

Global

Europe


Note: scales are different to highlight year-over-year variation

generally increasing

4.1% CAGR


3.1% CAGR

©TeamSAI 10

WESTERN EUROPE AND EASTERN EUROPE ENGINE MRO GROWTH RATES

10/08/2014

Western Europe

Eastern Europe




2.1% CAGR

significantly increasing

8.7% CAGR

©TeamSAI 11

GLOBAL AND EUROPEAN ENGINE MRO BY TECHNOLOGY LEVEL

10/08/2014



Global

Europe New technology engines are forecast to

make up an increasing but limited share of

the market over the period

©TeamSAI 12

GLOBAL AND EUROPEAN ENGINE MRO BY VINTAGE

10/08/2014



Global

Europe New technology engines are forecast to

make up an increasing but limited share of

the market over the period

But the newest types (Leaps and

PW1000G, which will power the MAX and

NEO, will have limited impact in this 10-yr

forecast period

©TeamSAI 14

BALANCE OF TRADE IN THE ENGINE MRO MARKET

10/08/2014

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

NA LA&C WE EE AP CH IN ME AF

Engine Maintenance Supply & Demand ($USM)

Demand Supply

Region NA LA&C WE EE AP CH IN ME AF

NA $6,869 84% 0% 15% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%

LA&C $835 69% 2% 28% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1%

WE $4,902 26% 0% 69% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%

EE $614 18% 0% 77% 1% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%

AP $4,790 26% 0% 32% 0% 39% 2% 0% 0% 0%

CH $1,306 41% 0% 34% 0% 6% 19% 0% 0% 0%

IN $301 29% 0% 14% 0% 22% 0% 35% 0% 0%

ME $1,947 46% 0% 29% 0% 10% 0% 0% 15% 0%

AF $579 25% 0% 46% 0% 4% 0% 0% 10% 15%

Total $22,144

Demand by Operator

Region ($USM)

Supplier Region

Region Net Exporter/Importer

NA net exporter

LA&C net importer

WE net exporter

EE net importer

AP net importer

CH net importer

IN net importer

ME net importer

AF net importer

©TeamSAI 15

CONSOLIDATION LEADS TO CHALLENGES FOR INDEPENDENT MROS

10/08/2014

TURBOMECA

DYNNAMIC GUNVER

TECHNOLGOIES

GAS TURBINE EFFICIENCY

EUROPEA MICROFUSIONI

AEROSPAZIALI AERO ENGINE

CONTROLS

RETAN

AVEOS ENGINE SHOP

P&WC-BRISBANE

PB FASTENERS

UNISON ENGINE COMPONENTS

PRIMUS INTERNATIONAL CENTRA INDUSTRIES

AERICRAFT HEAT TREATING

KLUNE INDUSTRIES

AEROSTRUCTURETIMET

SYNCHRONOUS AEROSPACE GROUP

SUMMIT MACHINE

AEROSPACE DYNAMICS

INTERNATIONAL

GOODRICH PUMP & ENGINE

CONTROL SYSTEMS

FINNAIR ENGINE

SERVICES

©TeamSAI

THANK YOU

16 10/08/2014

Tom Cooper Executive Vice President & Principal

TeamSAI, Inc.

(404) 762-7257

[email protected]

WWW.TEAMSAI.COM

2014 2024 GLOBAL ENGINE MRO: ENGINE SESSION MRO...

Documents

Transcript of 2014 2024 GLOBAL ENGINE MRO: ENGINE SESSION MRO...