Shenggen FanDirector General

IFPRI

APRIL 1, 2015 | DAKAR

Strong advances against hunger and poverty

Hunger is decreasing…

…as is extreme poverty

Steady GDP growth2014

19%

11%

1990 2014

Advanced economies

LICs & MICs4.4%

1.8%

700 million people

209 million people

36%

16%

1990 2010

Lowest staple food pricessince 2010

118161

201

160

188

230

202180

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

FAO Food Price Index

Food policy in 2014

Mixed resultsPROGRESS VULNERABILITIES HOPE

Higher priority for nutrition

Greater understanding of role of WASH

New commitments on trade and climate

Increased attention to resilience

Focus on family farming

! Persistent conflicts

! Re-emerging zoonotic diseases (e.g. Ebola, Avian flu)

! Continued extreme weather shocks (e.g. Typhoon Hagupit)

! Rising food safety scandals

! Higher prices of nutritious foods

SDGs—refining goals

China-US climate deal—making real advances

Lima GHG accord—realizing more progress in Paris

Global Alliance for CSA—driving greener production

ICN2 sequel—sustaining action on nutrition

Compact2025—pushing knowledge frontier

Regional and national developments

• High food inflation; intense climatic risk• New schemes of financial inclusion for the

poor

• Reduced fuel subsidies • Built strategic grain reserves

• Recommitted to CAADP (Malabo Declaration)

• Pledged to reduce child malnutrition by 2025 (5 more SUN countries)

• Renewed commitment to food security and food safety (Beijing Declaration)

• Reforms of agric. and social protection policies

• Remained food production powerhouse• New South-South learning initiatives

e.g. Brazil’s Zero Hunger

Africa

South Asia

MENA

LAC

East Asia

Food security and nutrition in Africa

Smallholders are key

Source: FAO 2014

% of agric. holdings less than 2 haFarmland cultivated by small family farmers in Africa

Source: Fan, Brzeska, and Olofinbiyi 2015

Smallholders make up majority of poor and hungry in Africa 0 10 20 30 40

Guinea

Mozambique

Lesotho

Namibia

Uganda

Ethiopia

Burkina Faso

Guinea-Bissau

Senegal

Malawi

Côte d’Ivoire

DR Congo

Differences exist on • Their potential to commercialize

• Soft constraints — E.g. access to info and financial capital

• Hard constraints― E.g. high population density and low quality soil

• Stage of economic transformation • Level of productivity in and outside of agriculture

• Economic diversification and growth

But not all smallholders are the same

Agriculture-based Transforming Transformed

Smallholders should be supported to move up or move out

• MOVE UP• Smallholders with profit potential move from subsistence

farming to profitable farming systems

• Already profitable smallholders scale-up commercial activities

OR

• MOVE OUT• Smallholders with no profit potential move out of

agriculture for non-farm employment

• Limited farm size

• Limited access to financial services

• Inadequate access to modern markets

• Food price spikes and volatility

• Climate change

Challenges hinder smallholder profitability

Picture source: IFPRI

• Promote land rights and efficient land markets

• Invest in agric. R&D to produce more with less

• Support efficient and inclusive food value chains

• Close gender gaps; develop young farmers

• Scale up productive, cross-sector social safety nets

Enhancing smallholder profitability is crucial

Picture source: IFPRI

1. Promote land rights and efficient land markets• Facilitate efficient transfers of land

• Certification of land rights

• Well-functioning land rental markets

• Fairer compensation for land requisition

• Encourage transfers to smallholders with more interest and resources

• Lift restrictions on min/max land ownership or land rental markets

• Secure property rights

2. Invest in agric. R&D to produce more with less

• Expand smallholder-friendly agric. R&D for• Breeding high-nutrient crop and livestock varieties

• Increasing resource-use efficiency e.g. water, energy

• Promoting climate-smart practices e.g. “triple win” strategies for adaptation/mitigation and productivity

Solar-powered drip irrigation

Orange-flesh sweet potato

Vitamin A cassava Iron-rich beans

Picture sources: IITA; HarvestPlus; IRRI

Producing more with lessBiofortification: Orange-fleshed sweet potato

Source: HarvestPlus 2012

Producing more with lessClimate-smart practices: “triple wins”

CROP MANAGEMENT PRACTICE

PRODUCTIVITY IMPACTS

ADAPTATION BENEFITSGHG MITIGATION POTENTIAL

Improved crop varieties or types

Increased crop yields & reduced yield variability

Increased resilience against climate change

Increased soil carbon storage

Improved croprotation/fallowing/rotation with legumes

Increased soil fertility & yields due to nitrogen fixing in soils

Improved soil fertility & water holding capacity increases resilience to climate change

High mitigation potential, esp. crop rotation with legumes

Use of cover crops Increased yields due to erosion control & reduced nutrient leaching

Improved soil fertility &water holding capacity increases resilience

High mitigation potential through increased soil carbon sequestration

Appropriate use of fertilizer and manure

Higher yields Improved productivity increases resilience to climate change

High mitigation potential, esp. where fertilizer has been underutilized

Source: Bryan et al. 2011

Synergies between productivity, climate change adaptation, and GHG mitigation, Kenya

• Promote smallholder-friendly innovations

• Improve postharvest handling

• Enhance food safety and quality standards

• Invest in rural infrastructure

3. Support efficient and inclusive food value chains

Picture source: IFPRI

• Offers weather-indexed insurance—smallholders can obtain credit and purchase better inputs

• Partners with int’l organizations, MFIs, NGOs, reinsurers, etc.

• Beneficiaries• Malawi: 2,500 • Rwanda: 500 • Tanzania: 300

• Increased yields, e.g. by 300% in Malawi

Promote smallholder-friendly innovations

MicroEnsure, Africa

Source: Hess and Hazell 2010; Leftley 2010

Picture source: Dignited

Gender equality in agriculture leads to

• Higher agricultural output; productivity gains

• Reduced hunger and malnutrition, esp. for next generation

• Improved rural livelihoods

Picture source: FAO

4. Close gender gaps…

Urban & peri-urban horticulture project, DR Congo

• 150,000 tons of vegetables produced / year in 5 cities

• Produced by 5,000 small-scale gardeners on 1,000 ha land

• Income generation for over 60,000 people along the value chain, esp. women

Source: FAO 2010

Linking agriculture, nutrition and gender

• Land, capital, and skill-building are crucial to develop next generation of farmers

• Improve rural infrastructure to increase access to services, goods, jobs, and leisure

• Young people + opportunity = “Youth dividend”Source: Brooks, Zorya, and Gautam 2012

…and develop young farmers

Population aged 15-24 (billions) Agriculture in Africa

• Main employer of Africa’s young people, likely to remain so in future

• Often offers best opportunity to move out of poverty

• BUT not seen as attractive option

Source: UN 2012

0

0.5

1

1.5

2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

World Africa

5. Scale up productive and cross-sector social safety nets• Promote better-targeted and more productive social

protection policies • Short-term cushion for coping with livelihood shocks • Long-term productivity-enhancing opportunities for smallholders

• Design cross-sectoral social protection to reach poor more effectively e.g.• Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program

• Access to both safety nets and ag. support improves food security, livelihoods more than stand-alone programs (Berhane et al. 2014)

• Bangladesh’s Vulnerable Group Development Program• Food security and nutrition interventions with income-generating

activities that target women (Ahmed et al. 2009)

Launch in November

2015

Evidence-based,

country-led approach

Established networks and new players

Knowledge and

innovation hub

Global and national

champions

Senegal has key role to play