Financial Results of the 3rd Quarter of Fiscal Year Ending ...
2014 15 3rd Quarter Fiscal Update Presentation
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Transcript of 2014 15 3rd Quarter Fiscal Update Presentation
Fiscal plan surplus
• Smaller surplus
Budget 2014 Estimate
Q3 Forecast
$1.1B surplus
$465M surplus
Fiscal Plan surplus (change in net assets)
Actual 2013/14
Q3 Forecast
($302M) deficit
$361M surplus
Consolidated Financial Statements surplus (incl. SUCH sector)
Decline in oil prices
• Oil dropped from $108/barrel in June to under $50/barrel in January
• 50%+ reduction • WTI oil price forecast revised to $79 US,
down from $95 US at budget
Energy volatility
Average: $79/bbl
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
$US/bbl
WTI (US$/bbl)
Budget 2014 Forecast
Second Quarter Forecast
Third Quarter Forecast
2014-15 Fiscal Year
Revenue
• Revenue forecast $397M higher than Budget 2014 estimate • Resource revenue forecast down $503M
Budget 2014 Estimate
Q3 Forecast
$44.4B $44.8B
Revenue (full year forecast)
Operational spending
• Operational expense is $802 million higher than forecast for: • forest-fires • agriculture and flood assistance • public sector compensation settlements
Capital Plan
• Revised Capital Plan forecast at $6.5B • Direct borrowing for infrastructure is $3B
• reduced $1.9B from budget
Economic forecast
3.8
3
1.4
2.5
3.6
2.9 2.6
2.2
0.6
2
1 1
0
1
2
3
4
% Change 2013 2014 Estimate 2015 Forecast
Public sector wages
31%
18% 24%
15%
12%
Alberta Health Services
Physicians
Education
Post-secondary Education
Alberta Public Service
Public Sector Compensation, 2013-14: $22.5 billion
Actions to date
• Closing international offices • Hiring restraint • Restricted spending on goods, services
and travel • All departments to look for cost savings • 5% wage rollback for all MLAs
We are listening
• Met 1,500 Albertans in 20 communities • 36,000+ responses to online survey • Input will guide government decisions
going forward
budget.alberta.ca