1. 2014 1 2014 7 19 () 2014 7 20 ()

2. 2014 2 () () 08:30-09:00 09:00-09:05 09:05-09:20 09:20-09:30 (73G) 09:30-10:10 : : 10:10-10:30 10:30-11:10 : : Memphis 11:10-11:50 : : 11:50-12:20 : 3. 2014 3 () () 08:30-09:00 09:00-09:05 09:05-09:15 (59 ) 09:15-09:30 : 09:30-10:10 : : 10:10-10:50 : : Memphis 10:50-11:30 : : 11:30-12:00 : 4. 2014 4 30 GE AREVA Fellow () () (CO2) (SO2)(NO,NO2) CO2(/) SO2(/) NO,NO2(/) 2.249 0.013 0.006 1.672 0.012 0.004 1.135 0.0001 0.0017 0 0 0 5. 2014 5 1990 138.3 2010 274.7 98.6% 2010 96.48% 1958 2006 6. 2014 6 (6) 2 2030 2005 30% 600 500 170000 10 12 (TWh) TWh 0.05 () 60 2013 99% 10 99.9% 1 1 1 X 1 (1 0.24 ) 50 25 3.012 2.40 0.612 7. 2014 7 1995 -2011 20% U.S. Electricity Production Costs 1995-2011, In 2011 cents per kilowatt-hour Production Costs = Operations and Maintenance Costs + Fuel Costs. Production costs do not include indirect costs and are based on FERC Form 1 filings submitted by regulated utilities. Production costs are modeled for utilities that are not regulated. Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite Updated: 5/12 2013 5 , 104 1 3 100 Vermont Yankee 99 Watts Bar 2 30 ( 120%)75% 20 8. 2014 8 2012 70%5%7% 18% 2013 4 ( 79%) 200 GE (ABWR) ABWR 1974 79% 2012 40.7%30.2%2.5%3.4% 3.4% 18.4% 1.4% 0.69 4.7 5.96 8.6 () 9. 2014 9 80% ) ) ) ) GE 1.610-7 ) ) 1350MW985MW636MW ) 206 4002 10. 2014 10 2838 2821 25% 20101990 9123 23 11. 2014 11 12. 2014 12 Conventional and Unconventional Energy Resources and Their Relationship to Earthquakes Memphis 30 Overview Modern World History can be considered as -- a history of Earth Sciences, a history fighting for Energy Resources, and the center of the history is petroleum. However, todays center of international focuses on energy resources have dramatically changed. Over the entire human history, we depend mainly on the burning of fossil energy resources, i.e. oil, coal, natural gas, for lighting, electricity, and other applications. The problems we encountered with fossil energy include: 1. limited resources available only on certain areas the reserve of fossil energy is finite and limited. The more we un-earth it today, the less it will be available for our future generation. In addition, many wars between countries were due to fighting for the demand on energy resources. 2. significant environmental issues the burning of fossil energy releases mercury, methane, CO2, and other debris to the air that create a significant environmental problem. It is getting worse and its impacts have becoming a global issue now. Alternatively, we turn from conventional to unconventional, and from non-renewable to renewable energy resources to try to find an answer. 13. 2014 13 So, what Energy Resources are we talking about today? Petroleum, Coal, Natural Gas, Solar, Wind, Nuclear, Tidal, Geothermal, Hydraulic, Biofuels, Hydrogen, etc. Research on the exploration and development of these energy resources are the focuses of todays energy industries. Among them, Electricity -- Coal, Natural Gases, Solar, Wind, Nuclear, Tidal, Geothermal, Hydraulic, Biofuels, etc., Heating Natural Gases, Geothermal, Biofuels Transportation -- Petroleum, Natural Gases, Biofuels, and Hydrogen Problems related to modern energy resources: 1. Instability where most oil is found, from the Persian Gulf to Nigeria to Venezuela, makes this lifeline fragile. 2. Transport oil from production field to market places is getting more difficult, e.g. from north-slope of Alaska to US continent or to Japan. 3. Natural gas can be hard to transport and is prone to shortage. 4. We wont run out of coal anytime soon, or the largely untapped deposits of tar sands and oil shale. But its clear that the carbon dioxide spewed by coal and other fossil fuels is warming up the planet. 5. Energy conservation can stave off the day of reckoning, but in the end you cant conserve what you dont have. At least, in personal level, all of us can do something to conserve energy. 6. It is time to step up the search for the next great fuel for the hungry engine of humankind. Is there such a fuel? The short answer is NO. 7. Hydrogen-fueled cars may give the wrong impression. Hydrogen is not a source of energy. It has to be freed before it is useful and that costs more energy than the hydrogen gives back. It is still long way to go before hydrogen-fueled engine becomes affordable, acceptable, or economically feasible. 8. Fossil fuels have met the growing demand because they pack millions of years of the suns energy into a compact form, but we will not find their like again. 14. 2014 14 Solar: free energy, at a price 1. Solar electric systems catch energy directly from the sun no fire, no emissions. It provides less than 1% of the worlds energy. 2. Heat can drive a generator. 3. Sun power, mostly, means solar cells. Sunlight falling on a layer of semiconductor jostles electrons, creating a current. Yet the cost of the cells is still high. New technologies to cut the price of solar cells and to improve the efficiency of converting solar energy to electricity will make a dramatic change to the energy industry. 4. A recent law requires new buildings to include solar energy in Spain. Wind: feast or famine 1. Wind is currently the biggest success story in renewable energy. 2. Wind, ultimately driven by sun-warmed air, is just another way of collecting solar energy; but it works on cloudy days. 3. In Denmark, total installed wind power is now more than 3,000 megawatts --- about 20% of the nations electrical needs. 4. The continental Europe leads the world in wind power, with almost 35,000 megawatts, equivalent to 35 large coal-fired power plants. 5. North America remains a distant second, with just over 7,000 megawatts. Biomass: farming your fuel 1. Biomass means ethanol, biogas, and biodiesel fuels as easy to burn as oil or gas, but made from plants. 2. Ethanol produced from corn goes into gasoline in the US. 3. Ethanol from sugarcane provides 50% of automobile fuel in Brazil. 15. 2014 15 4. Biodiesel from vegetable oil is burned, pure or mixed with regular diesel, in unmodified engines, in the US and other nations 5. Germany uses about 450 million gallons of biodiesel a year, about 3% of its total diesel consumption. 6. The success of biomass depends on 1. more farmland 2. better technology to increase efficiency both in farming and engine 3. political support (lobbyists) Nuclear power: still a contender (1) Nuclear fission 1. Nuclear fission appeared to lead the race of an energy alternative decades ago, 2. About 440 plants now generate 16% of the planets electric power. For example, France gets 78% of its electricity from nuclear fission 3. China is building new reactors at a brisk pace, one or two a year 4. New Zealand is a nuclear-free country 5. Challenges for using nuclear power 1. Safety need routine safety inspection and technology upgrade 2. Radioactive waste disposal 3. Far from renewable 4. The readily available uranium fuel wont last much more than 50 years (2) Nuclear fusion 1. Energy is produced when two atoms fuse into one 2. Fusion would produce no long-lived radioactive waste and nothing for terrorists or governments to turn into weapons. 3. Hot fusion is more likely to succeed, but it will a decade-long quest costing billions of dollars in research 4. A demonstration plant to actual generate power, followed by commercial plants may be possible in 50 years or so Why is China pushing new nuclear? 16. 2014 16 1. Chinas electricity consumption quadrupled between 1980 and 2000. 2. Air pollution as a result of burning fossil fuels is estimated to kill 750 000 people a year and economic loss is put at 6% of GDP. Three coal-fired stations are coming online each week in China. 3. A recent study by BP suggests China can only continue at current rates of production for 38 years before its coal reserves are exhausted. That compares with 245 years in the USA and 105 years in India. What is happening now (after Fukushima)? 1. Worldwide there are 60 new nuclear plants under construction with 131 more proposed, 2. The new build program in Europe (excluding Russia) amounts to just six reactors in four countries: Finland, France, Romania and Slovakia. 3. Plans in Europe and North America are overshadowed, however, by those in China, India, Japan and South Korea. 4. China alone plans a six-fold increase in nuclear power capacity by 2020, and has more than one hundred further large units proposed and backed by political determination and popular support. 5. Germany will phase out its nuclear plants by 2020 6. Italy has imposed a one-year moratorium on the construction of nuclear power plants. 7. A small number content to proceed with new build proposals such as Slovakia with China announcing a pared back nuclear expansion program. 8. A report from UBS suggests that at the very least around 30 nuclear plants may have to close as a result of Fukushima, in particular those in seismic zones or close to national boundaries The future of nuclear power in the US 1. 51 NPPs have obtained extensions of their 40-year license to enable operation to 60 years-- 41 more are pending, 2. Many plants have increased their power: 5900 MW of new nuclear electricity has been added (equivalent to adding 6 new units), 3. 19 utilities are proposing to license 34 new units in the next few years, 17 applications for 24 units already before the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Some purchasing of components has begun but no firm orders expected until licensing more advanced. 4. New Development Small modular reactors (SMRs) < 300 MWe, http://earthandindustry.com/2011/03/small-modular-reactors-the-new-nuclear-industry- video/ 17. 2014 17 Petroleum 1. The U.S. governments Energy Information Administration projects that in 20 years, the Persian Gulf will supply between one-half and two-thirds of the oil in world market the same percentage as before the 1973 embargo. 2. The argument of when will be a global shortage of conventional oil depends on How much oil is left in the worlds biggest wellspring of crude, the Middle East? 3. We take it for granted that the Middle East will come forth with whatever volume of oil is needed to balance supply and demand. 4. The fact is that Sauidi Arabia the one country that we always assumed had fabulous reserves hasnt found a big new fields for decades.. In stead, it is starting to happen in some Saudi fields where water starts coming up a well its productive life is over. The Middle East may fall short of growing demand sooner than expected. 5. On the optimistic side, the USGS concluded in a 2000 study that theres at least 50% more oil left than the pessimists believe, much of it in the Middle East. 6. One way or another, even the larger reserves can sustain the worlds growing thirst for oil indefinitely, Oil and Gas are limited. What we know are 1. The crude wont suddenly dry up. 2. Old oil fields dont die, they slowly fade away. 3. The world will face shortages more lasting than any 1970s oil shock. What are our options? 4. Should we increase production from the Canadian tar sands? 5. Should we increase production from heavy oil: deposits in Venezuela? 6. Should we try to exploit the American Wests vast deposits of oil shale and othe organic-rich rock that yields oil when roasted? These options carry heavy environmental costs 7. Should we pin our hopes on finding new supplies of natural gas, extracting fuel from plant material, or building solar, wind, or nuclear plants to make hydrogen for fuel-cell vehicles? 8. There are no easy options, and all will take time to explore. 9. People should be doing something now to reduce oil dependence and not waiting for Mother Nature to slap them in the face. Coal 18. 2014 18 1. The coal is first pulverized, then combusted in a furnace that converts water into steam (1600-1800C). In turn, the steam spins turbines and generates electricity that passes into the grid. 2. Even the most advanced technology now yields a 35% thermodynamic efficiency during the conversion process. 3. We are reducing our dependence on coal for electricity; About 33% of US electricity came from coal in 2012, down from 49% in 2008. Alternative options are becoming cheaper, namely natural gas since the advent of fracking. 4. New methods of combustion are coming in the form of CWS (coal-water slurry). Combination of 55-70% finely dispersed coal particles and 30-45% water; converting it to liquid form reduces harmful emissions. 5. The most efficient power plant in Denmark boasts an efficiency >47%, with 91% of the energy content of the coal being utilized. Two units on site consume 223 tons/hour when running at full capacity, producing 716MW. 6. Coke is a fuel with a low impurity, high carbon content. Derived from destructive distillation of low-ash, low-sulfur bituminous coal. 7. The volatile constituents of coal are baked off in an airless furnace at 1000-2000C, depending on the grade of coal; fuses the fixed carbon chains and residual ash. 8. Usually produced as a by-product in most electricity producing plants and resold; metallurgical coke is used as a fuel to smelt iron ore in blast furnaces. 9. Coal gasification is used to produce syngas, a gas mixture containing various amounts of carbon monoxide and hydrogen. 10. The syngas can be further converted into transportation fuels (diesel/gasoline) through the Fisher-Tropsch process- a collection of chemical reactions that converts the CO-H mixture into liquid hydrocarbons. I will spare you the gory chemical reaction formulas. 11. During gasification the coal becomes oxygenated and mixed with steam while introducing heat and high pressures. Water molecules oxidize into carbon monoxide and release hydrogen gas. 12. Some plants have technology that removes moisture and other pollutants from the lower ranking coal grades. As a result, the calorific values are increased. 13. This pre-combustion treatment helps to alter the characteristics of coal before it reaches the furnaces/boilers. In doing so there is a reduction in the net volume of carbon emissions produced by power generators. 14. Coal washing can be done before the ore reaches refineries. The rocks are crushed into small chunks and fed into a large water-filled tank; impurities sink to the bottom of the tank while the coal remains afloat. 19. 2014 19 15. When sulfur is chemically bound to the coal it can be broken down with various chemical reactions, but this has proven to be too expensive; therefore most modern power plants (anything built after 1978) use scrubbers. 16. Scrubbers or flume gas desulfurization units are special devices installed to clean the sulfur from the coals combustion gases before they proceed up the smokestack. 17. Scrubber is simply a mixture of limestone and water. The compound is sprayed into the combustion gases. Once introduced, the limestone and sulfur combine to form a paste or dry powder. Advantages of Coal 1. Coal is one of the safest fuels to extract; no nuclear meltdowns, oil spills, etc- only the occasional collapsed mine. 2. Greater security of reserves; 65% of the worlds oil is located in the Middle East, whereas coal deposits can be imported from a wide range of sources. 3. Technology is allowing for cleaner burning and greater thermal efficiency; future estimates predict an efficiency of 55% in electricity generation. Natural Gases Energy resources used in the US 1. Oil 40% 2. Coal 23% 2. Natural Gas 23% 3. Nuclear 8% 4. Hydro, wind, solar, biomass 6% Service provided by natural gas 1. Industrial -- 37% 2. Residential 23% 3. Electric power 22% 4. Commercial 14% While natural gas is used in multiple economic sectors -- a very balanced service to our economy --- 1. Oil -- is used primarily for transportation, ~66% of oil consumption in the US was used for transportation. 2. Coal is essentially used in electricity generation, ~92% of coal is used for electricity generation. 20. 2014 20 3. Nuclear, wind, tidal, solar, and hydro are used exclusively for electricity generation. Advantage of Natural Gas 1. Natural gas can be used to produce heat in an efficient and clean manner. 2. In the industrial sector, process heat is by far the leading end use of natural gas, ~accounts for 55% of industrial natural gas usage 3. For commercial and residential users natural gas is the leading resource of energy for space and hot water heating. 4. Natural gas is chemically simple it is methane (CH4), Oil and Coal are chemically more complex. 5. The cleanliness and efficiency of natural gas is the primary reasons why it is valued more importantly in recent time than the two other fossil resources. 6. Some 25 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas was produced in the US and Canada in 2002 unconventional reservoirs contributed 20%. 7. In 2003, the National Petroleum Council estimates that total gas production from the US and Canada, excluding the Arctic regions, will struggle to remain at the 25 Tcf level in the future. 8. By 2025, the NPC expects unconventional gas will account for 10 Tcf, or 40% of the gas flowing from the non-Arctic regions of North America. 9. The definition of unconventional gas resources includes: Gas occurring in tight sands, carbonates, coal seams, and fractured shales. Conventional gas is discrete geographic entities with well-delineated hydrocarbon/water contacts, their reservoirs generally exhibit high matrix permeabilities and obvious seals and traps. The recovery of gas-in-place resources is high. Unconventional gas is diffuse deposits, without clear boundaries, and the reservoirs have low matrix permeabilities. The seals, traps and hydrocarbon/water contacts are not apparent. Most significantly, the recovery of gas-in-place resources is very low. Geothermal 21. 2014 21 1. USA, Mexico, and Philippines lead the world with geothermal power generation and other applications. Other countries including Iceland, New Zealand, Japan, Indonesia, and a few other countries are also famous for their geothermal power generation. 2. Geothermal energy is mainly available around high heat flow regions that usually refer to as volcanic regions. 3. Geothermal power (from the Greek roots geo, meaning earth, and thermos, meaning heat) is power extracted from heat stored in the earth. Geothermal energy is generated in the Earth's core, where temperatures hotter than the sun's surface are continuously produced by the slow decay of radioactive particles. 4. Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) use heat-mining technology to extract and utilize the earths stored thermal energy. A 2006 report by MIT and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy on EGS found that U.S. EGS resources far exceeded the countrys energy use in 2005, and that with an R&D investment of $1 billion over 15 years, EGS could be capable of producing electricity for as low as 3.9 cents/kWh. 5. Naturally occurring large areas of hydrothermal resources are called geothermal reservoirs. Most geothermal reservoirs are deep underground with no visible clues showing above ground. Geothermal energy sometimes finds its way to the surface in the form of volcanoes and fumaroles (holes where volcanic gases are released), hot springs, and geysers. The most active geothermal resources are usually found along major plate boundaries where earthquakes and volcanoes are concentrated. Most of the geothermal activity in the world occurs in an area called the Ring of Fire that encircles the Pacific Ocean. 6. Recent development in geothermal energy has extended its application from volcanic or high heat flow regions to almost everywhere 7. Unconventional geothermal energy can now be applied to a family or a community for heating and electricity. 8. Geothermal heating/cooling system can be used Anywhere there is soil with good heat exchange properties and there is space to install the thermal exchange loop. 9. Geothermal heating is more efficient than geothermal cooling Easier to pump heat out of the ground then pump it back in. 10. Systems are more efficient where most of the time they are heating the space. 11. Lower electricity consumption. Tax breaks of 30% the cost of the geothermal heat pump. 22. 2014 22 Tidal, Hydraulic, and Hydrigen energy resources will not be discussed here. Important experience from energy development of Scotland 1. Scotland aims for 100% renewable energy by 2020. 2. October 31, 2012, alternative Energy BP bp.com. See how BP's advanced technologies are expanding energy production. 3. Scotland has set a goal of meeting half its electricity demand from renewable sources by 2015, after reaching 35 percent last year, according to Alex Salmond, Scotland's First Minister. 4. The target is an interim step in Scotland's effort to get all of its power from clean sources by 2020, after beating its 2011 goal of 31 percent, according to data from the U.K. Department of Energy and Climate Change. 5. Setting the mid-stage target will help provide energy security, environmental sustainability and employment opportunities, Salmond said today in an e-mailed statement. 6. Scotland's renewable energy production offsets our carbon emissions by 15 percent -- the equivalent of taking around 3.5 million cars off the roads, Salmond said. In total, 11,000 people are now employed in the renewable-energy sector. 7. Scotland has as much as a quarter of Europe's tidal and offshore wind resources and about 10 percent of its wave power potential, according to the Scottish government. Offshore wind may support as many as 28,000 direct jobs by 2020, Salmond said. Future energy source search will need a big push from government. 1. The internet was supported for 20 years by the military and for 10 years by the National Science Foundation before Wall Street found it. 2. A proactive energy policy is needed. Otherwise, we will just wind up using coal, then shale, then tar sands, and it will be a continually diminishing return, and eventually our civilization will collapse. What these energy resources have to do with earthquakes? 1. Nuclear power license will not be granted in the US if its proposed site is located 250 miles from any active seismic zone. This is apparently not the case for the nuclear power plants in Taiwan. Alternatively, the construction threshold has to set to higher standard to allow the plant to sustain the maximum possible strong ground motion from future large earthquakes. That means more expensive. 2. Geothermal area tends to have earthquake swarms due to volcanic activities, thermal expansions, movement of magma bodies, etc. 23. 2014 23 3. Deep drilling wells for petroleum and natural gas productions may induce earthquakes. Recent moderate and unusual earthquakes occurred in central Arkansas, Oklahoma city of Oklahoma, and Dallas region of Texas are good examples of induced earthquakes from natural gas production. 4. Deep waste water well may also induce earthquakes when injection of water penetrates into existing nearby faults So, what can we do about it? 1. Earthquakes are still far from been predictable with todays knowledge and technology. Our best choice is an early warning system. 2. Early warning system works beautifully in the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake. Damages of the Fukushima nuclear disaster were not due to the large strong motions from earthquakes but mainly due to the damage of the backup power generator from the Tsunami. 3. Standalone single station early warning system for railroads and other critical facilities. Early warning system has been installed along the bullet train routes. Electric power will be automatically shut down when strong ground motion is detected. During the earthquake, there were 23+ bullet trains in motion. All of them were successfully powered down due to the action taken from the early warning system. 4. Multiple stations seismic array early warning system for distant critical facilities including nuclear power plan, super computer center, hospital, government building, etc. Multiple station early warning systems in Japan had also provided critical information of strong ground motion to allow critical facilities such as nuclear power plants, super computers, government buildings, etc. to shutdown during earthquakes. 5. All nuclear power plants in Japan (including Fukushima) performed beautifully well to sustain strong ground motions due to the earthquakes. That means that all plants were constructed to their expectations based on the regional predicted maximum ground acceleration and seismicity. 24. 2014 24 1 Tragedy of the Commons 298 CO2 18 GDP CO2 3 20 20% 419651992 7 5 6 2009