BH Report: Disney Animated Features 2013/11/30

Context

• I like Disney movies. I remember thinking that they were childish when I was younger, but as I watch these movies as an adult, I can appreciate the amount of effort put into making these films and the resulting high quality of the films... even when the plot is subpar, I can almost always rely on either animation style or the music

• After I had some conversations with my friend about the topic of 'favorite Disney films' – I came up with very simple questions: "just exactly how many Disney movies are there?" and "how did they do commercially?"

– For example, I really liked Treasure Planet but I also knew that many people thought it was bad, and that it was a flop from commercial perspectives

– On the other hand, I had no clue how the usual suspects of "best Disney movies" like The Lion King, Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin and The Little Mermaid all stacked up against each other

• I was shocked to find out that there are total of 52 full-length Disney Animated Features (that many!?) and I was also shocked to realize that I have already seen 30 out of the 52 without even realizing it

• Here are key questions I aimed to address in this report:

– Which ones are regarded as 'the best/worst' Disney movies? Does the list match up with what is commonly regarded as "Disney Renaissance" and "Revival Era"?

– Has Disney been commercially successful with their movies? how closely does popularity tie to box office sales?

There are 52 Disney animated features to date... 1. Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (1937)

2. Fantasia (1940)

3. Pinocchio (1940)

4. Dumbo (1941)

5. Bambi (1942)

6. Saludos Amigos (1942)

7. The Three Caballeros (1944)

8. Make Mine Music (1946)

9. Fun and Fancy Free (1947)

10. Melody Time (1948)

11. The Adventures of Ichabod and Mr. Toad (1949)

12. Cinderella (1950)

13. Alice in Wonderland (1951)

14. Peter Pan (1953)

15. Lady and the Tramp (1955)

16. Sleeping Beauty (1959)

17. One Hundred and One Dalmatians (1961)

18. The Sword in the Stone (1963)

19. The Jungle Book (1967)

20. The Aristocats (1970)

21. Robin Hood (1973)

22. The Rescuers (1977)

23. The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh (1977)

24. The Fox and the Hound (1981)

25. The Black Cauldron (1985)

26. The Great Mouse Detective (1986)

27. Oliver & Company (1988)

28. The Little Mermaid (1989)

29. The Rescuers Down Under (1990)

30. Beauty and the Beast (1991)

31. Aladdin (1992)

32. The Lion King (1994)

33. Pocahontas (1995)

34. The Hunchback of Notre Dame (1996)

35. Hercules (1997)

36. Mulan (1998)

37. Tarzan (1999)

38. Fantasia 2000 (1999)

39. Dinosaur (2000)

40. The Emperor's New Groove (2000)

41. Atlantis: The Lost Empire (2001)

42. Lilo & Stitch (2002)

43. Treasure Planet (2002)

44. Brother Bear (2003)

45. Home on the Range (2004)

46. Chicken Little (2005)

47. Meet the Robinsons (2007)

48. Bolt (2008)

49. The Princess and the Frog (2009)

50. Tangled (2010)

51. Winnie the Pooh (2011)

52. Wreck-It Ralph (2012)

Frozen opened in late November 2013 as the 53rd movie

Beginning Revival era

Disney Renaissance

"People" generally agree that Disney movies peaked in early '90s (the first 3 movies and also the last couple years have also been good)

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Source: IMDB

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Source: Box Office Mojo

% foreign sales has always been ~50-65% range for the last 20 yrs (exceptions are mostly movies that had small box office sales like Fantasia 2000)

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Source: Box Office Mojo

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Disney Renaissance

Production budget has gone up substantially (some "step increases" such as Hunchback $100M, Tangled $260M... perhaps CGI-related?)

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Source: Box Office Mojo

Revival era

Disney Renaissance

After Disney Renaissance, most movies have only made ~1-2x production budget

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Two tragic level of flops in a

row

Source: Box Office Mojo

Better reviewed movies tend to make more money, but the correlation is weak

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8.5 5.0 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5

Wreck-It Ralph

Winnie the Pooh

Tangled

Princess and the Frog Bolt

Meet the Robinsons

Chicken Little

Home on the Range

Brother Bear

Treasure Planet

Lilo & Stitch

IMDB score

Emperor’s New Groove

Dinosaur

Fantasia 2000

Tarzan

Mulan

Atlantis

Hunchback Pocahontas

The Lion King

Aladdin

Box office sales ($M) – Domestic & Foreign not including re-run – ADJUSTED TO INFLATION (2012 equivalent $)

Hercules

R2 = 34%

Source: IMDB

Case study (I): Bambi (1942)

At its initial release, Bambi seemed to be somewhat of a

failure compared to earlier Disney movies – Budget of $1.7M

– Box office of $1.64M (Pinocchio 2 years ago made $39M)

Multiple factors could have gone into receiving poor reviews – Released during World War II

– Non fairy tale based story (also quite depressing...)

– "Anti-hunting" message

Bambi grew in popularity over the course of years with

multiple re-runs (roughly every 10 years)

101

62

39191042

0

150

100

50

Cumulative box office sales ($M) – Domestic – not adjusted to inflation

1942 1957 1947 1966 1975 1982 1988 Source: Box Office Mojo; Wikipedia

Case study (II): The Lion King (1994)

The Lion King was an international success, grossing $313M

in the US and $565M abroad. Re-releases in 2002 and 2011

generated additional ~$110M, making lifetime gross of ~$1B

With its huge success, Disney decided to create a musical

spin-off only 3 years later in 1997... this became an instant hit,

achieving highest gross as Broadway musical in 1998 ($43M

vs. $36M by the 2nd place- The Phantom of the Opera)

By 2013, the musical finally generated lifetime gross of $1B

Source: Box Office Mojo

Appendix

Revival

era

Disney Renaissance

Appendix: Inflation adjusted views on Box office sales

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312

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Source: Box Office Mojo

Disclaimer

This document is provided for general information only and nothing contained in the material constitutes a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any security. Although the statements of fact in this report are obtained from sources that I consider reliable, I do not guarantee their accuracy and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. Views are subject to change on the basis of additional or new research, new facts or developments.