2013.05-FormulaicTrendingMonthlyAbstract
-
Upload
dianeestes937 -
Category
Documents
-
view
58 -
download
0
Transcript of 2013.05-FormulaicTrendingMonthlyAbstract
-
May 13, 2013:
PORTF5RMULA$ FORMULAIc TRENDING MQNEY MANAGERS
The Formulaic Trending Monthly Abstract
RAM Score = +56.51 Mapper ScoreTM = 6 of 10 increasing
The overall RAM Score has increased from +54.52 to +56.51 this month... And 6 of 10 Mapper ScoresTM (yes, we have added 4 additionalindexes to our Mapper Score System) are increasing while 1 has flat-lined, meaning 3 have declined.
What has really caught my eye (and ears) this month is a two-fold interconnected relationship.
First, the market has hit new highs (no doubt you have heard). But unlike any other time in history, the volatility and speed of the markets haschanged dramatically. Notice the two graphs below (S&P 500 and Dow 30) and most specifically, contrast the structure from years 1975-2000against the W pattern of years 2000-2013.
The stark differences are dramatic... This isnt your Grandfathers stock market anymore.
c--
Second, most professionals in-the-know are quietly exuberant regarding this bull market. You may have noticed there was little fanfareregarding the Dow 30 surpassing 15,000 or the S&P 500 surpassing 1,600 even though neither had ever happened before. Interesting...
-
Here is a sampling of measures illustrating potential market strength that most everyone else is too quietly exuberant to talk about:
1. Stocks have been outperforming bonds by a significant %, indicating that investors are rotating into stocks away from bonds.2. Recent volumes in put options has lagged volume in call options by 50%, indicating bullish money.3. The S&P 500 is almost 9% above its 125-day average.4. There has been almost 15% more trading volume on the NYSE is in advancing stocks vs. declining stocks.5. The number of stocks hitting new 52-week highs has continually exceeded those hitting 52-week lows for all of 2013.6. The VIX volatility index has experienced a declining trend since late 2012.7. The Federal Reserve is not tightening monetary policy.8. Stock price valuations are not stretched.
PORTFRMULAS FORMuLAIC TrwNn,Nc MoN MANAGER
Portformulas Investing CorporationFormulaic Trending Money Manager
SEC Registered Investment Advisor6020 E Fulton St. Ada, MI 49301
(888) 869-5994 - www.portformulas.net
0 RAM Score is a proprietary trending tool that takes into account several dynamic components related to the U.S. markets and economy. It features a corebaseline which allows for correlation between these multiple components so that they may be added together for an overall Ram Score. As a trending tool, webelieve that a positive RAM Score indicates that the odds are stacked in favor of equity investments and a negative RAM Score indicates that odds are stackedagainst equity investments. Mapper ScoreTM is a proprietary trending tool that takes into account several dynamic components related to the underlyingstocks represented within an index. It identifies certain strengths of individual stocks contained within an index and tracks how many meet minimumrequirements. As a trending tool, we believe that the higher the percentage of qualifying stocks, the greater the strength of the overall index. 9 Our scoringmechanisms do not guarantee that the markets will increase when scores are strong or decrease when the scores are weak. But we believe the long termcorrelation may be valuable for investing... Combining our trending features of RAM Score & Mapper ScoreTM with our Portformulas intricate FormulaicInvestingTM Strategies results in a uniquely logical approach to investing that is exclusively available through Portformulas.
Price History
14,OOQ.13,000.(12000.fI1,000.(1G,Qoo.9,000.G(8,000.G(7,000.Q(6,000.015,000.014,000.013,000,012,000.011,000.01
5 80 85 90 95 00 05
1,500.C1,400.C1,300.C1200.C1,100.ci,ooo.:900.00800.00700.00600.00500.00400.00300.00200.00100.00
5 80 85 90 95 00 05 5/9/2013
Page 1 of5
-
There is no investor euphoria (the premise of my making this list).Bond spreads have been shrinking.Economists do not believe a recession is looming.
Best of Investing,Mike Walters, CEO
,41o:;::I(kc
PURTFRMULAS. FonMutAic TnrNoNc MONEY MANAcwo
Portformulas Investing CorporationForm ulaic Trending Money Manager
SEC Registered Investment Advisor6020 E Fulton St. I Ada, MI 49301
(888) 869-5994 - www.portformulas.net
9.10.11.12.13.
PORTF5RMULAS FORMULAIc TRENDING MONEY MANAcER
Transportation stocks, small caps and bank stocks do not appear to be retreating.And, as you can see below, the inverse of the 4-Week Moving Avg. of Initial Jobless Claims is staying in almost perfect step with theS&P 500. In theory, meaning that this bull market is not just a Fed-driven phenomenon and that our economy really is supportingthis growth on its own merits.
-IC4WSAs&p 500 Stock Price Index (SP500)
1,760
1,645
-280,000
-320,000
-360,000 1,530
-400,000 1,415
-440,000 1,300
.
480000 1,185 .E
-520,000 1,070
-560,000 955
-600,000 840
-640,000 725
-680,000 6102014
Shaded areas indkate US recessions. I -IC4WSA (Left) IFRED 2013 researchstlouisfed.org (Right)2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Re -CL*i#,47
ie
Obviously, there are never guarantees when investing in the market, but it is nice to know that the underpinnings appear solid. And as you willsee over the next few pages, our proprietary RAM Score and Mapper Score indicators seem to lend further support to the underpinnings.
Our unique approach of Formulaic Trending Money Management has brought us much attention and I hope that it continues to create muchvalue for you as an investor! At request of many, I have included the Freedom Series Portformula Performance Calculations for yourreference to compare our various Freedom investment models to their corresponding indices.
For more information you can visit www.portformulas.net or speak with your Financial Advisor (be sure to ask if the new Freedom Series isright for you and your investment goals).
1W/1
rDn
M j)) c) fvl(
Page 2 015
-
Iv $&(
PORTFRMULAS FORMuLAIc TRENDING MONEY MANAGERS
Below you can see how the time weighted returns (TWR) of the FREEDOM SERIES models compare against their corresponding index sinceinception earlier this year:0 RAM Score is a proprietary trending tool that takes into account several dynamic components related to the U.S. markets and economy.It features a core baseline which allows for correlation between these multiple components so that they may be added together for an overallRam Score. As a trending tool, we believe that a positive RAM Score indicates that the odds are stacked in favor of equity investments and anegative RAM Score indicates that odds are stacked against equity investments.
Momentum (13 mo) -
MACD (13 mo) Recession Risk (13 mo) Volatility (13 mo)
(-b), ,?7V6
A--- ,f-i24Portformulas Investing CorporationFormulaic Trending Money Manager
SEC Registered Investment Advisor6020 E Fulton St. Ada, MI 49301
(888) 869-5994 - www.portformulas.net
EEZZ1 RAM Score (Lifetime)
s
r
is _s
,,,, , ,;,,
s ,,q, ,,e9 o c
7 cjBcA1 a)A,/AIT3/()/C; r
PORTFRflhIULAS. FonMuLAic TnNolNG MONEY MANAGFn
1
Page 3 of 5
-
PORTFRMULAS FORMuLAIc TRENDING MONEY MANAGERS
0 Mapper ScoreTM is a proprietary trending tool that takes into account several dynamic components related to the underlying stocksrepresented within an index. It identifies certain strengths of individual stocks contained within an index and tracks how many meet minimumrequirements. As a trending tool, we believe that the higher the percentage of qualifying stocks, the greater the strength of the overall index.
(NOTE: As such, we do not believe that all stocks within an index are automatically worthy of ownership. In the FREEDOM SERIES, we seek toonly own the stocks that meet our qualification criteria. The Mapper ScoreTM illustrates how many stocks we view worthy of consideration.)
Mapper ScoreTM for Dow 30Stocks Mapped = 13
Mapper Score = 43.33%
Mapper ScoreTM for S&P 500Stocks Mapped = 179
Mapper Score = 35.80%
Mapper ScoreTM for Russell 3000Stocks Mapped = 406
Mapper Score = 13.53%
Mapper ScoreTM for NASDAQStocks Mapped = 127
1. ,,e. 0cY p Ve. ..g s p w
Mapper ScoreTM for S&P 400Stocks Mapped = 108
Mapper Score = 27.00%
Mapper ScoreTM for Russell 2000Stocks Mapped = 109Mapper Score = 5.45%
F o Ve/ .
-
PORTFRMULAS FORMuLAIc TRENDING MONEY MANAGERS
0 Our scoring mechanisms do not guarantee that the markets will increase when scores are strong or decrease when the scores are weak.But we believe the long term correlation may be valuable for investing... Combining our trending features of RAM Score & Mapper ScoreTMwith our Portformulas intricate Formulaic InvestingTM Strategies results in a uniquely logical approach to investing that is exclusively availablethrough Portformulas.
Please note that there are a number of important disclosures that must be considered before investing in Portformulas. Please read the information anddisclosures contained in Portformulas hypothetical carefully before investing. Any performance figures referenced herein are hypothetical and are not indicativeof future results. Purchases and sales of securities within Portformulas various strategies may be made without regard to how long you have been investedwhich could result in tax implications.
RAM Score and Mapper Score General Disclosures
The RAM Score and Mapper Score illustrations do not represent any particular Portformula strategy nor are they intended to recommend any Portformulastrategy or the RAM Score feature. The information contained herein simply attempts to illustrate how our firms RAM Score feature and Mapper Score operate.The RAM Score feature can be applied to many Portformula models at no additional cost. The Mapper Score is simply an analytical informational tool.
RAM Score was not developed until January 2010. Prior to January 2010, clients were utilizing RAM Scores predecessor, RAM. Clients utilizing RAM mayhave had different results than those reflected above. RAM Score movement prior to 2010 is hypothetical and based on retroactive application of RAM Scoresindicators to market and economic conditions existing at the time. Portformulas was not managing assets prior to 2007.
It is important to understand that RAM Score is only a tool designed to assist our firms management of your account. RAM Score does not guarantee anyspecific results or performance and even with RAM Score on your account, it is possible that your account will lose value. RAM Score moves assets into or out ofthe market based on various economic and market indicators. It is possible that the market will move positively while you are not invested or negatively whileyou are invested, resulting in losses. Any Portformula strategy may underperform or produce negative results.
Just because Portformulas maps a stock does not mean that the stock will be held in a model. Client accounts may hold less stocks than those referenced in theMapper Score illustration. Mapper Score has no impact on performance.
The RAM Score illustration utilizes the S&P 500 index because it is a well-known index and provides a recognizable frame of reference. The Mapper Scoreanalysis uses the referenced indices because they are relevant comparisons across certain Portformula models. The indices referenced herein are not publiclyavailable investment vehicles and cannot be purchased. Furthermore, none of the indices referenced herein have endorsed Portformulas in any way.
Portformulas Investing Corporation
p 0 A T FR lvi U L A S. Formulaic Trending Money Manager FORMuLAIC TnTNnNc MONrY MANAGFn
SEC Registered Investment Advisor6020 E Fulton St. I Ada, MI 49301
Page5of5 (888) 869-5994 - www.portformulas.net
-
6020
E.Fu
lton
StA
da,
MI4
9301
p0
RT
F5
RIII
UL
AS
ww
w.P
ortfo
rmul
as.c
om80
0-86
9-59
94
FO
RM
uL
AIc
TR
EN
DIN
GM
ON
EY
MA
NA
GE
R
SE
CR
egis
tere
dIn
vest
men
tAdv
isor
F
reedom
Series
Po
rtfo
rm
ula
Perform
ance
Calculations
DJI
AFr
eedo
m(D
ow30
)Fr
eedo
mS&
P40
0Fr
eedo
mS&
P50
0Fr
eedo
mR
usse
llFr
eedo
mR
usse
llFr
eedo
mN
SDQ
DJ3
OIn
dex
SP40
0In
dex
SP50
0In
dex
R20
0020
00In
dex
R30
0030
00In
dex
NSD
QIn
dex
____
Mod
elD
iffer
ence
:
Sinc
eM
odel
Ince
ptio
n:19
.51%
4.94
%
14.5
7%
-5.
25%
3.42
%
13.4
3%1&
68%
20.4
0%16
.98%
-0.
09%
16.7
4%16
83%
3.65
%
20.8
7%17
.22%
7.66
%
19.8
7%1
12.2
1%
Rol
ling
12M
onth
s16
68%
1230
%12
25%
1702
%14
86%
1428
%14
28%
1598
%17
09%
1476
%14
88%
929
%
__
__
__
_
$.
Yea
rTo
Dat
e:14
.91%
13.2
5%12
08%
13.6
8%12
.42%
12.0
2%11
.18%
11.5
5%:
13.8
1%12
.22%
10.8
9%10
.24%
April
201 3
207
%1
79%
196
%0
55%
087
%1
81%
233
%0
43%
107
%1
53%
040
%1
88%
Mar
ch20
132.
62%
3.73
%&
04%
463%
5.16
%3.
60%
5.57
%4A
4%58
0%3.
76%
5.20
%3.
40%
Febr
uary
2Ol3
191%
140%
115%
079%
211%
111
%19
8%10
0%25
3%1
10%
153%
057%
Janu
ary
201 3
764
%5
77%
780
%7
21%
559
%5
04%
5 72%
821
%5
98%
537
%4
24%
406
%
Dec
embe
r201
2-0.
92%
0.60
%1.
02%
2.03
%0.
15%
0.71
%2.6
7%33
4%0.
25%
1.02
%0.
86%
0.31
%
Nov
embe
r201
2-0.
26%
-0.
54%
0.36
%2.
01%
0.70
%0.
28%
0.08
%.
0.39
%-0.
74%
0.51
%0.
29%
1.11
%
Oct
ober
2012
-1.
15%
-2.
54%
-0.
94%
4187
%-1.
20%
-1.
98%
-1.
55%
-2.
24%
-1.
39%
-1.
85%
-3.
42%
-4.
46%
Sept
embe
r201
23
87%
265
%0
70%
I80
%2
33%
242
%1
89%
312
%1
77%
246
%1 2
8%16
1%
Aug
ust2
012
048
%0
63%
316
%3
30%
034
%1
98%
299
%3
20%
286
%2
25%
253
%43
4%
July
2012
028
%0
94%
-0
53%
012
%0
67%
126
%1
05%
145
%1
33%
087
%1
56%
015
%
June
2012
6.79
%3.
99%
080%
1.73
%3.
16%
3.96
%1.
76%
4.81
%4.
90%
3.75
%3.
07%
3.81
%
May
2012
557%
621%
-42
6%6
63
382%
627%
382%
674%
317%
641%
245%
719%
April
2012
011
%0
01%
079
%0
30%
I52
%0
75%
160
%1
62%
123
%0
77%
128
%1
46%
Mar
ch20
122.
54%
2.01
%0.
26%
1.
73%
3.26
%3.
13%
0.54
%2.
39%
1 .98
%2.
93%
3.03
%4.
20%
The
abo
vere
turn
sare
time-
wei
ghte
dre
turn
s;tim
e-w
eigh
ted
retu
rns
show
the
com
poun
dgr
owth
rate
ina
portf
olio
whi
leel
imin
atin
gth
ev
aryi
ngeff
ectc
reate
dby
cash
inflo
ws
and
ou
tflow
sby
ass
um
ing
asi
ngle
inve
stm
enta
tth
ebe
ginn
ing
oft
hepe
riod
an
dm
easu
ring
mark
etv
alu
egr
owth
or
loss
att
heend
oft
hatp
erio
d.Ti
me-
wei
ghte
dre
turn
sals
ore
flect
perf
orm
ance
afte
radv
isor
yfe
esha
vebe
ende
duct
ed.
The
Free
dom
seri
esin
vest
sin
equ
ities
and
base
don
the
qual
ifica
tion
crite
ria,
may
hold
equi
typo
sitio
nsre
gard
less
ofo
ver
all
mark
etm
ov
em
en
tPa
stpe
rfor
man
ceis
no
guar
ante
eoff
utur
ere
sults
.In
vest
ing
inequ
ities
carr
ies
an
inhe
rent
risk
an
dit
ispo
ssib
leth
atyo
uco
uld
expe
rien
cesi
gnifi
cant
loss
esin
the
event
ofa
mark
etde
clin
e.Pl
ease
consi
dery
our
risk
tole
ranc
eca
refu
llybe
fore
inve
stin
g.
This
activ
ityis
gene
rally
refe
rred
toby
the
Firm
as
aPo
rtfor
mul
aIn
vest
men
tStra
tegy
.Y
oush
ould
only
inve
stin
Porif
orm
ulas
upo
nre
ceiv
ing
an
dre
adi
ngth
ePo
rtfor
mul
asA
DV
.20
06-2
012
Port
form
ulas
Al
lRig
hts
Res
erve
d.
IMPO
RTA
NT
NO
TICE
:Pas
tper
form
ance
isno
guar
ante
eoff
utur
ere
sults
.You
ractu
alre
sults
may
var
y.In
vest
ing
carr
ies
anin
here
ntele
men
tofr
isk.
Pote
ntia
lfor
subs
tant
ial
loss
inpr
inci
pala
nd
inco
me
exis
ts.T
his
mate
rial
isnot
com
plet
eu
nle
ssal
lpa
ges
are
incl
uded
.Po
rtfo
rmuI
ascK
(theF
irm)o
pera
tes
with
Li
mite
dD
iscr
etio
nary
Aut
horit
yto
enga
geso
lely
inth
eim
plem
enta
tion
ofs
peci
ficst
ep-b
y-st
epin
vest
men
tcrit
eria
an
daccount
reba
lanc
ing
as
indi
cate
dan
dse
lect
edby
the
clie
nt.S
ECFi
leN
o.80
1-68
276.
SEC
Reg
istra
tion
does
not
impl
ya
cert
ain
leve
lofs
kill
or
trai
ning
.
page
1of2
-
PD
RT
F
RM
UL
AS
FO
RM
uL
AIc
TR
EN
DIN
GM
ON
EY
MA
NA
GE
R
iI
I
A-It)C
cL
S(--
pt:
fr
/1/a
)60
20E.
Fulto
nSt
Ada
,M
I493
0180
0-86
9-59
94w
ww
.Por
tform
ulas
.com
SEC
Reg
iste
red
Inve
stm
entA
dvis
or
Fr
eedo
mSe
ries
Po
rtfo
rmul
aPe
rfor
man
ceC
alcu
latio
ns
Free
dom
S&P
100
Free
dom
S&P
600
Free
dom
Rus
sell
Free
dom
Nas
daq
sP10
0In
dex
SP60
0In
dex
R10
0010
00In
dex
N10
010
0In
dex
1_
1.
__
Rol
ling
12M
onth
s:20
.83%
1193
%17
.29%
1416
%19
79%
446%
Yea
rTo
Dat
e:15
.64%
1119
%12
.71%
11.1
3%14
.01%
1413
%16
.25%
8.51
%
April
2013
1.84
%2.
05%
-3.
00%
-0.
33%
-1.
07%
2.42
%0.
54%
2.
44%
Mar
ch20
133.
81%
3.13
%7.
05%
3.94
%5.
25%
3.57
%4.
80%
E
2.84
%
Febr
uary
2Ol3
2.41
%1.
12%
2.06
%1.
29%
3.13
%1.
10%
2.85
%
0.26
%
Janu
ary2
013
6.81
%4.
19%
6.35
%5.
41%
6.17
%5.
03%
7.27
%2.
58%
Dec
embe
r201
21.
06%
0.03
%2.
18%
3.
03%
-0.
23%
0.83
%1.
06%
.-0.
64%
Nov
embe
r201
20.
88%
-0.
02%
-0.
42%
0.87
%1.
51%
0.51
%2.
05%
.
1.12
%
Oct
ober
2012
-1.
73%
-2.
67%
-2.
66%
,-2.
15%
-1.
25%
-1.
85%
-2.
22%
-5.
71%
Sept
embe
r201
22.
68%
2.62
%1.
84%
2.16
%1.
56%
2.35
%28%
0.
96%
cfr_
_---
Aug
ust2
012
1.08
%1.
65%
2.12
%
3.54
%1.
33%
2.12
%1.
54%
4.68
%
July
2012
0.84
%1.
87%
-0.
40%
-0.
84%
-0.
35%
1.05
%0.
73%
-1.
01%
June
2012
4.38
%4.
25%
2.38
%3.
89%
3.26
%3.
53%
3.42
%34
7%
May
2012
-4.
53%
-6.
39%
-4.
37%
-6.
82%
-2.
86%
-6.
82%
-5.
92%
-7.
87%
April
2012
0.54
%-0.
82%
0.55
%-1.
34%
1.93
%-0.
70%
2.04
%-1.
16%
Mar
ch20
122.
23%
3.31
%1.
59%
!2.
68%
2.78
%2.
89%
5.00
%4.
80%
The
abo
vere
turn
sare
time-
wei
ghte
dre
turn
s;tim
e-w
eigh
ted
retu
rns
show
the
com
poun
dgr
owth
rate
ina
portf
olio
whi
leel
imin
atin
gth
ev
aryi
ngeff
ectc
reate
dby
cash
inflo
ws
and
ou
tflow
sby
ass
um
ing
asi
ngle
inve
stm
enta
tth
ebe
ginn
ing
oft
hepe
riod
and
measu
ring
mark
etvalu
egr
owth
or
loss
at
the
end
oft
hatp
erio
d.Ti
me-
wei
ghte
dre
turn
sals
ore
flect
perf
orm
ance
afte
radv
isor
yfe
esha
vebe
ende
duct
ed.
The
Free
dom
seri
esin
vest
sin
equ
ities
and
base
don
the
qual
ifica
tion
crite
ria,
may
hold
equi
typo
sitio
nsre
gard
less
ofo
ver
all
mark
etm
ov
em
en
tPa
stpe
rfor
man
ceis
no
guar
ante
eoff
utur
ere
sults
.In
vest
ing
inequ
ities
carr
ies
an
inhe
rent
risk
an
dit
ispo
ssib
leth
atyo
uco
uld
expe
rien
cesi
gnifi
cant
loss
esin
the
event
of a
mark
etde
clin
e.Pl
ease
consi
dery
our
risk
tole
ranc
eca
refu
llybe
fore
inve
stin
g.
This
activ
ityis
gene
rally
refe
rred
toby
the
Firm
as
aPo
rtfor
mul
aIn
vest
men
tStra
tegy
.Y
oush
ould
only
inve
stin
Portf
orm
ulas
upo
nre
ceiv
ing
an
dre
adi
ngth
ePo
rtfor
mul
asA
DV
.20
06-2
012
Port
form
ulas
Al
lRig
hts
Res
erve
d.
IMPO
RTA
NT
NO
TICE
:Pas
t per
form
ance
isno
guar
ante
eoff
utur
ere
sults
.You
ractu
alre
sults
may
var
y.In
vest
ing
carr
ies
anin
here
ntele
men
tof r
isk.
Pote
ntia
lfor
subs
tant
ial
loss
inpr
inci
pala
nd
inco
me
exis
ts. T
his
mate
rial
isn
ot
com
plet
eu
nle
ssal
lpag
esare
incl
uded
.Por
tfor
muI
as(th
eFi
rm)o
pera
tes
with
Li
mite
dD
iscr
etio
nary
Aut
horit
yto
enga
geso
lely
inth
eim
plem
enta
tion
ofs
peci
ficst
ep-b
y-st
epin
vest
men
tcrit
eria
an
daccount
reba
lanc
ing
as
indi
cate
dand
sele
cted
byth
ecl
ient
.SEC
File
No.
801-
6827
6.SE
CR
egis
tratio
ndo
esnot
impl
ya
cert
ain
leve
lofs
kill
or
trai
ning
.
Mod
elD
iffe
renc
e:
Sinc
eM
odel
Ince
ptio
n:
9.50
%
24.1
9%14
.69%
-0.
06%
15.6
4%15
.70%
6.25
%
22.8
8%
20.1
4%
16.6
3%28
.34%
820%
pag
e2o
f2