Market AnalysisTravel

Nikita Kosholkin, Empatika

February 22, 2013

About this analysis

• This analysis contains core statistics and trends on Travel category worldwide

• The goal of this presentation is to nudge us to think about possible ways of development

• P.S. there are links to the resources on each slide in «speaker’s notes».

Trends

UNWTO: one of the key reasons why tourism will be a strategic pillar of any truly sustainable

economic future.

«Today, nearly half of the one billion international tourist arrivals in the world are to emerging and developing economies, where those arrivals create and maintain jobs and income for those most in need», - UNWTO Secretary General Dr. Taleb Rifai,

http://skift.com/2013/01/24/the-future-of-tourism-in-the-new-new-economy/

IATA Airline Industry Forecast 2012-2016

• International passenger numbers are expected to grow from 1.11 billion in 2011 to 1.45 billion passengers in 2016

• Five of the 10 fastest growing markets for international passenger traffic are among the Commonwealth of Independent States or were part of the former Soviet Union with the others in Latin America, Africa and the Asia-Pacific region

• By 2016, the top five countries for international travel measured by number of passengers will be the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain and France

http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/pages/2012-12-06-01.aspx

Skift: 11 of 13 trends1. Everyone wants a chinese tourist (from 16,6 mln in 2002 up to 86 mln

people/year in 2012. In 2020 - 200 mln. Growth in their spending abroad 30% y/y

2. Ancillary fees (Airlines) are the new normal. Passengers want to see all new fees being added on.

3. Last-minute mobile hotel booking (expect more single-function startups)

4. The rise of price transparency (i.e. if price goes down - re-book it automatically, e.g. tingo.com)

5. Food tourism

6. Airports as destinations («new holiday shopping mall»?)

7. Destination branding through movies («did you know - excursion»)

8. Digital maps are one of travel’s key battlegrounds

9. Personal in-flight entertainment through mobile devices

10. Blurring of business and leisure travel

11. Lure of the last Unknown: the rise of Myanmar

http://skift.com/files/reports/SkiftTrends-2013.pdfhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/11/business/holiday-shopping-takes-hold-at-airports.htmlhttp://www.ibtimes.com/12-biggest-travel-stories-2012-their-impact-926897

Carlson Wagonlit: business travel trends

There are some intersections with Skift trends, but these are interesting ones:

• Brazil, India, China - will drive business travel growth

• Reviews aggregators.

http://www.tnooz.com/2012/11/30/news/a-z-of-business-travel-trends-in-2013-expect-more-of-the-same/

Sharing economy

• Airbnb

• Parking space (Parking Panda - US)

• Obstacle: legal issues

http://www.slate.com/articles/business/small_business/2012/12/parking_panda_rent_your_unused_parking_space.html

SITA and Moovweb• 61% of passengers want more

«pesonalizations» in airports

• 70% of airlines executives believe, that mobile app will be one of dominant sale channel

• 9 out of 10 passengers want flight status info on their mobiles

• 55% of passengers say NO to sharing personal data

• By 2015 year 750 mln users will either have a ticket delivered to their mobile phone of buy a ticket with their phone (compared to 230 mln today)

http://www.sita.aero/content/flying-future-2015-passenger-experiencehttp://blog.moovweb.com/2013/02/the-post-pc-revolution-is-here-dont-panic/

comScore: U.S. total Online Travel Spending Up 9 Percent to

$103 Billion

http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press_Releases/2013/2/U.S._Consumer_Online_Travel_Spending_Surpasses_100_Billion_for_First_Time_in_2012?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+comscore+%28comScore+News%29

Google: glassWhat it can do?

• For travel

• Maps

• Augmented reality-powered search

• Flight related updates

• Rest:

• Take a picture

• Record a video

• Online video chat

What it (probably) can do for travel?

• Search Hotels/flights• Real-time city guide• Geo-based discounts

http://www.google.com/glass/start/

Mobile Payments

Mobile payments are likely to expand to $17 billion in 2013.

http://readwrite.com/2013/02/12/how-mobile-payments-will-transform-the-shopping-experience?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+readwriteweb+(ReadWriteWeb)

Mobile Payments

• Chetan Sharma Consulting voted mobile payments the top mobile applications and services category for 2013

• Visa Europe: in 2013, there will be 40 issuers offering mobile contactless payment services to consumers, and by the end of 2013 around 80 types of smartphones will be certified to carry out contactless payments.

• Shop.org and Forrester: mobile payments will be essential if retailers wish to remain competitive

• China is set to follow U.S. and Asia-Pacific countries to embrace a cashless society

http://readwrite.com/2013/02/12/how-mobile-payments-will-transform-the-shopping-experience?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+readwriteweb+(ReadWriteWeb)

Asia-Pacific

Where to goWhere to liveWhat to do

Whats interestingWhere to eat

Where to go, lets see...

http://www.emarketer.com/Article/Asia-Pacific-Social-Media-Inspires-Travelers/1009605

Amadeus research: the big 4 travel effects in Asia

• Me effect (more people want to travel alone thus many niche occures: visiting friends and relatives (VFR), female and small business traveller, Gen S or Senior travellers)

• The Red Tape Effect (people can travel more with better visa regulations. Look closer to India, China and Indonesia)

• The leapfrog effect (new technology will define people’s behaviour)

• The Barbell effect (growth in the low end of economic spectrum will nudge them to look for more low-cost airlines and accomodations while upper end will look for more expensive ways to see the world)

http://www.tnooz.com/2013/02/04/news/four-big-future-travel-trends-in-asia-pacific/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Tnooz+%28Tnooz%29http://skift.com/2013/02/02/five-emerging-traveler-types-that-will-define-the-future-of-the-industry/

Fragmentation of travel market users: Japan, Korea, China, India, Singapore, Indonesia, and Australia

• The Visit friends and relative (VFR) traveler. 20% of Asia travelers. They prefer not to use hotels but lodging with friends or relatives.

• The independent traveler. 46% of Asia travelers use the Internet to plan and book trips (thus, avoid travel agents)

• The Generation ‘S’ (Senior) traveler. In Asia life expectancies increase so much more senior travelers occur. In 2011 - 9 mln up to 30 mln in 2030

• The small business traveller (travel without a company base).

• The female business traveller. Female now accounting about 25% of all business travellers. In 2011 there were approximately 4.5 million international business trips by women. By 2030 this will have increased by 400%.

http://skift.com/2013/02/02/five-emerging-traveler-types-that-will-define-the-future-of-the-industry/http://www.amadeusapac.com/cmcapac/APACWhitepapers/downloads/Shaping_the_future_of_travel_in_APAC.pdf

Asia some additional data

• International Air Transport Association (IATA): Asia will accounting for 33% (1.2 billion) of global passengers in 2016

• Asia’s discount carriers have plan to add about 750 new airplanes over the next decade to meet future passengers traffic.

The bad news: «If you think about the number of people that want to travel in Asia Pacific, there will be bottlenecks at the airports

because of the infrastructure,» said Maunu von Lueders, regional vice president at IATA.

http://skift.com/2013/02/04/asia-discount-carriers-growing-so-fast-airports-cant-keep-up/

Skift. About visa regulations

We are going to more countries has «visa on arrival»http://skift.com/2013/02/12/visa-on-arrival-the-new-currency-in-global-travel-2/

Skift. About visa regulations

• China: 3 day visa-free transit

• India: 25% jump in visitors over 2011 with «visa on arrival»

• UNWTO: there would be 2 billion travelers per year.

• «Visa on arrival» is going to become the new lingo in the worlds of travel (also it should give a big boost to the busness travel)

http://skift.com/2013/02/12/visa-on-arrival-the-new-currency-in-global-travel-2/http://skift.com/2012/12/05/china-to-allow-3-day-visa-free-transit-trips-in-effort-to-boost-beijing-tourism/

Business travelers

• 1,5x likely to have > $100,000 year income

• 9x likely - work in finance industry

• 5x likely - work in ad industry

• 66% likely to book a hotel with a 5-star rating

• 69% likely to book a hotel (flight) less than 3 days before traveling

Business Travelers... compare with you (regular traveler)

http://www.tnooz.com/2013/01/23/news/lifestyle-comparison-how-do-you-stack-up-against-the-average-business-traveler-infographic/

Business travelers: profileScarborough Research

• Business travelers defined as adults who have taken a domestic, round-trip flight during the past year for work, make up 10 percent of the adult population in the U.S. (around 25 million)

• Golf and tennis are the two most popular exercise activities among business travelers.

• Business travelers are 68 percent more likely than the average U.S. adult to have gone jogging during the past year.

• Business travelers are 78 percent more likely to belong to a gym.

http://skift.com/2013/02/09/business-travelers-are-more-health-conscious-tech-savvy-and-likely-to-shop-online-than-the-rest-of-america/

Business travelers: profileScarborough Research

http://skift.com/2013/02/09/business-travelers-are-more-health-conscious-tech-savvy-and-likely-to-shop-online-than-the-rest-of-america/

Business Travellers... where do they travel internationally?

• Top cities

• Florecne (62%)

• Hong Kong (62%)

• Mexico City (60%)

• Sydney (57%)

• Dublin (56%)

• Amsterdam (55%)

• Madrid (55%)

• Dubai (55%)

• Bangkok (54%)

• Madrid (55%)

• Top countries

• Switzerland (62%)

• Greece (61%)

• Singapore (61%)

• China (59%)

• Netherlands (55%)

• UK (52%)

• France (52%)

• Egypt (51%)

http://www.tnooz.com/2013/01/23/news/lifestyle-comparison-how-do-you-stack-up-against-the-average-business-traveler-infographic/

Other• Hotel as a part of airport experience (esp. for people with

long layover)

• Google Places now provides Zagat reviews to app developers

• The rise of metasearch (Room 77, Trivago)

• Rio: global tourist deastination in the next four years

• Federal Trade Commission: apps and travel startups shoud do more on privacy

• The more business travelers prefer to take a taxi rather than to rent a car

• Google announced an update to its Flight Search tool. We are moving to predictive era.

http://airport-world.com/publications/all-online-articles/item/2181-bed-and-board?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitterhttp://readwrite.com/2013/01/18/google-places-reviews-in-api?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+readwriteweb+(ReadWriteWeb)http://skift.com/2013/01/03/expedia-concur-team-in-30-3-million-funding-round-for-room-77/http://skift.com/2013/01/29/the-next-four-years-will-make-or-break-rio-as-global-tourist-destination/http://skift.com/2013/02/02/apps-including-travel-need-to-do-lot-more-on-privacy-or-more-fines-coming-ftc-says/http://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/2013/02/05/rental-rates-taxis-business-travelers/1892059/http://www.tnooz.com/2013/01/31/news/where-google-travel-is-heading-according-to-one-of-its-employees/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Tnooz+%28Tnooz%29

US government: why travel is good for you, for your business and economy as a whole?

http://traveleffect.com

Summary

• Look closer at Asia-Pacific

• Visa regulations

• There is some shift in passenger’s mind about pricing, airport and mobile role in their life and etc.

• Augmented reality

• Mobile Payments

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For more info contact me at: nikita.kosholkin@empatika.com