2013 Tobacco Industry Seminar

CROP PRODUCTION INTELLIGENCE

Registration

1st - Planting Estimate

2nd Crop assessment

3rd Crop Assessment

Customer Merchant

Government

Crop Size Announced

Actual 145 mil kgs?

Actual 175 mil kgs?

Current System

3

What is Crop Production Intelligence

• Crop Intelligence is the exercise of finding out crop volumes and quality

4

WHY IS IT DONE?

• The Government needs to know how much volume will be produced in order to plan accordingly

• Merchants need to establish crop size in relation to demand

5

Impact Of Wrong Crop Intelligence

• Economic and financial ramifications

• Credibility of Crop Intelligence

• Impacts all planning and budgets

• Creates anxiety

6

Crop Intelligence Results in million kgs2005 - 2013

YEAR Burley

  Official Estimate Actual

2005 105,300,000 119,519,868

2006 127,800,000 124,082,421

2007 88,400,000 86,620,382

2008 145,000,000 169,248,366

2009 194,000,000 208,301,519

2010 186,600,000 193,238,632

2011 199,800,000 208,324,837

2012 134,100,000 64,676,433

2013 138,200,000 144,709,338

72005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

Burley Estimates Versus Actuals 2005-2013

Estimate

Actual

Years

Volu

me

Kgs

82005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

All Tobacco Types Estimates versus Actual: 1995-2012

EstimateActual

Years

Volu

mes

(Kg)

9

Strength and Weakness of Current Methodology

STRENGTHS:• The detailed TCC questionnaire covers all critical areas• Personnel from all stakeholders in the industry have

collective responsibility

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Strength and Weakness of methodology… continued

WEAKNESSES:• Registration system

– This is the foundation of crop production information.

– Lack of grower base intelligence linked to registration system (dual registrations/unknown number of growers)

• There is a limitation in human and other resources • Reliance on information received by growers not

quantifiable

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Way Forward

• Information jointly collected from the field should not be

changed but published immediately

• More coordinated approach between all stakeholders

• Detailed calendar of events for planning purposes

• Grower base data be made available before the beginning of

the exercise

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Way forward … cont

• Accuracy– Communication – Merchants and Grower Associations are

required to know and report volumes from their contracted growers

• Need for a committee established from MOA, TCC, and merchants to carry out crop intelligence

• Male sterile seed required• Seed sale volumes by ARET to be part of

assessment• Mechanism/Training to help farmers to measure

their fields –ARET?• Introduce technology?

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Using technology

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Satellite Imaging - Tobacco fields

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Government Crop management Process

Registration - IPS -TCC

EPA reconciles

TCC/Government reconciles

TCC advise TradeTrade verification

Trade advises customers

Crop size announced Trade,

Associations Submit

Government/TCC

Thank you

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