2013 – The Year in Review
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1 2013 – The Year in Review
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2013 – The Year in Review. The Fleets - 2013. Type Western Built Eastern Built Total Turbojets 22,113 1,007 23,120 Turboprops 4,797 1,001 5,898 Business Jets 18,072. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of 2013 – The Year in Review
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2013 – The Year in Review
The Fleets - 2013
Type Western Built Eastern Built Total
Turbojets 22,113 1,007 23,120
Turboprops 4,797 1,001 5,898
Business Jets 18,072 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Accident Classifications
Aircraft * Type: Turbojets, Turboprops, Piston, Helicopters * Size: Weight, number of seats * Use: Passenger, cargo, business, government * Western built or Eastern built
How Measured * Per hours flown * Per departures * Per number of aircraftClassification * Hull Loss Accident * Total Loss Accident * Economic Loss Accident * Substantial Damage Accident * Fatal Accident * Major Accident
Accident Classifications
Major Accident:An accident in which any of three conditions is met:
1. Aircraft destroyed, or
2. Multiple fatalities to occupants, or
3. One fatality and aircraft substantially damaged
Major Accidents Commercial Jets
1 January 2013 to 31 December 2013
CFITLOCExcursion
Date Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fatal
29 January SCAT Air CRJ-200Almaty, Kazakhstan
Approach
21
13 April Lion Air B-737 Bali, IndonesiaApproac
h0
29 AprilNational Airlines
B-747Bagram, Afghanistan
Takeoff 7
6 July Asiana Airlines B-777 San Francisco, USA Landing 3
14 August UPS A-300Birmingham, AL, USA
Approach 2
17 November
Tatarstan Airlines
B-737 Kazan, Russia Approach 50
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Commercial Jet Major Accidents 2000 through 2013
20
15
10
5
2001 02 03 04 05
06
07 08
09
10
11
13
19
13
13
16
11
17
19
17
19
14
12
Eastern Built
7 7
13
Major Accidents Commercial Jets
1 January 2014 to 16 April 2014
CFITLOCExcursion
Date Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fatal
8 March Malaysian Airlines
B-777 Indian Ocean Enroute 239
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Major Accidents Commercial Turboprops (> 14 seats)
1 January 2013 to 31 December 2013
CFIT
Date Operator Aircraft Location PhaseFata
l23 Januray
Kenn Borek Air DHC-6 Terra Nova Bay, Antarctia Enroute 3
13 February South Airlines AN-24
Donetsk, Ukraine
Approach
5
4 March CAA Fokker 50 Goma, DRCApproac
h7
8 March ACE Air CargoBeech 1900
Anchorage, Alaska, USA
Approach
2
7 AprilSahel Air Service
Beech 1900
San Tome and Principe
Approach
1
17 April Lao Air DHC-6 Vientiane-Wattay, Laos Takeoff 0
16 May Nepal Airlines DHC-6 Jomson, Nepal Landing 0
16 May Flying Dragon Aviation Y-12 Shenyang, China Climb 0
1 June Sita Air DO-228 Simikot, Nepal Landing 0
10 June Merpati Airlines MA-60Kupang, Indonesia
Landing 0
13 June SkyBahamas SAAB 340 Marsh Harbor, Bahamas Landing 0
29 June Batair Cargo EMB-110 Francistown, Botswana
Approach
2
9 August Ukraine Air Alliance AN-12 Leipzig, Germany Start 0
9 Sept CorpFlite DO-228Vina Del Mar, Chile
Approach
2
3 October Associated Aviation EMB-120 Lagos, Nigeria Takeoff 13
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Major Accidents Commercial Turboprops (> 14 seats)
1 January 2013 to 31 December 2013 (cont.)
CFIT
Date Operator Aircraft Location PhaseFata
l10 October
MASwings DHC-6 Kudat, Malaysia Landing 2
16 October
Lao Airlines ATR-72 Pakse, LaosApproach
49
19 October
Air Niugini ATR-42 Madang, Papua New Guinea Takeoff 0
3 November Aerocon Metro III Riberalta, Bolovia
Approach
8
10 November
Bearskin Airlines
Metro III Red Lake, CanadaApproach
5
2 December IBC Airways Metro III
Arecibo, Puerto Rico
Enroute 2
26 December Irkut AN-12 Irkutsk, Russia
Approach
9
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Commercial Turboprop Major Accidents
2000 through 2013
2001 02
03
04 05
06
07
08
09
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
22
31
33 3
1
39
24
24
29
10
11
26.1 (12 years)
20.6 (5 years)2
3
12
21
20 1
7
Eastern Built
13
22
Major Accidents Commercial Turboprops (> 14 seats)
1 January 2014 to 16 April 2014
CFIT
Date Operator Aircraft Location PhaseFata
l20 January
------------------- AN-28 Addis ababa, Ethiopia
Approach
0
16 February Nepal Airlines DHC-6 Khidim, Nepal Enroute 18
17 February 748 Air Services HS-748
Rubkona, S. Sudan
Landing 1
21 February
Libyan Air Cargo
AN-26Grombalia, Tunisia
Approach
11
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
13
Major Accidents Business Jets
1 January 2012 to 31 December 2012
Date Operator Aircraft Location PhaseFata
l
2 February Extrapoint, LLC Lear 35 Pueblo, CO, USA Takeoff 0
12 February
Trident Aviation Svcs
Gulfstream IV
Bakavu-Kavumu, DRC Landing 3
1 March Asia Today, Ltd Citation 750Egelsbach, Germany
Approach
5
15 March Private Citation 501 Franklin-Macon, NC, USA Landing 5
18 June Triple C Devlopment Beech 400
Atlanta,Gegoria, USA Landing 0
13 July Universal Jet Aviation
Gulfstream IV
Le Castellet, France
Landing 3
2 August Airnor Citation 500 Santiago de Compostela, Spain
Approach
2
15 Sept Private Lear 24Bornholm, Denmark
Approach
0
18 SeptDewberry Air LLC
Beech 400 Macon, GA, USA Landing 0
11 Nov Tropic Air Taxi Aero Citation 525 Sao Paulo, Brazil Landing 0
17 Nov US Customs Citation 550Greenwood SC, USA Landing 0
9 December
Starwood Management Lear 25 Iturbie, Mexico Enroute 7
21 December US Customs Citation 550
Oklahoma City, USA Landing 0
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Major Accidents Business Jets
1 January 2013 to 31 December 2013
Date Operator Aircraft Location PhaseFata
l
20 February
The Vein Guys Premier IThomson, GA, USA
Landing 5
4 March Global Jet Luxembourg Premier I
Annemasse, France
Takeoff 2
17 March7700 Enterprises Premier I
South Bend, IA, USA
Approach
2
5 May Private Lear 60Valencia, Venezuela
Approach
2
29 September CREW MMCLLC Citation Jet
CJ2Santa Monia, CA, USA Landing 4
18 October Dufrense, Inc Citation IDerby, Kansas, USA
Climb 2
19 November
AirEvac International Lear 35
Ft. Lauderdale, USA
Climb 4
17 December
Mallen Industries
Premier I Atlanta, GA, USAApproac
h2Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Business Jet Major Accidents 2000 through 2013
20
15
10
5
2001 02 03 04 05
06
07 08
09
10
11
14
8
14
8
15
912
11
7
8
10.4 Average
7
12
13
13
8
Business Jet Major Accident Rate 2000 through 2013
(Accidents per 1,000 Aircraft)
1.0
.75
.50
.25
2005 06 07 08 09
10
11 12
5 Year Average: .49
13
Major Accidents Business Jets
1 January 2014 to 16 April 2014
Date Operator Aircraft Location PhaseFata
l
5 January PrivateChallenger 601
Aspen, CO, USA Landing 1
12 January Private Citation Trier, GermanyApporach
4
3 March Iran CAA Falcon 20 Kish Island, Iran Unk 4
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Approach and Landing Major Accidents
Commercial Jets 1 January 2013 through 31 December 2013
Date Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fatal
29 January SCAT Air CRJ-200Almaty, Kazakhstan
Approach
21
13 April Lion Air B-737 Bali, IndonesiaApproac
h0
6 July Asiana Airlines B-777 San Francisco, USA Landing 2
14 August UPS A-300Birmingham, AL, USA
Approach 2
17 November
Tatarstan Airlines
B-737 Kazan, Russia Approach 50
Business Jet Major Accidents 2000 through 2012
2000 01
02 03
04 05
06
07
08
5
10
15
20
8
14
8
14
8
15
912
11
7
09
63% of Business Jet Major Accidents were Approach and Landing Accidents
6
ALA Accidents
8
5
9
5
8 7 7
4 5
8
6
10
7
4
11
10.5
6.5
12
13
11
5
8
13
Controlled Flight into Terrain Major Accidents
Commercial Jets1 January 2013 to 31 December 2013
Date OperatorAircra
ftLocation Phase
Fatal
29 January
SCAT Air CRJ-200Almaty, Kazakhstan
Approach 21
13 April Lion Air B-737 Bali, Indonesia Approach 0
6 July Asiana Airlines B-777 San Francisco, USA Landing 3
14 August UPS A-300Birmingham, AL, USA
Approach 2
Sources: Honeywell (Don Bateman), Ascend
23 5 Year Running Average
Aircraft Upset Major Accidents Commercial Jets
1 January 2013 through 31 December 2013
Date OperatorAircraf
tLocation
Phase
Fatal
29 AprilNational Airlines
B-747 Bagram, Afghanistan Takeoff 7
17 November
Tatarstan Airlines B-737 Kazan, Russia
Approach 50
Aircraft Upset Major AccidentsCommercial Jets
1999 through 2013
Nu
mb
er
of
Ac
cid
ents
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
4
6
26
Being Predictive
In A Reactive World
Being Predictive
• Can we be predictive ? • Will it be successful in reducing risk ?
Safety Basics
Safety = Risk Management
* Eliminate risk * Reduce risk * Acknowledge risk
Managing Risk
Risk Management 101
• Risk = (Probability) X (Severity)
• Everything in life has risk
• Manage Risk by modifying P or S
The Key to Risk Management
# 1 Identify Hazards
Being Efficient
Good: Prevent 1 accident in 5 years
Better: Prevent 5 accidents in 1 year
Fatalities by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy Team (CICTT) Aviation Occurrence CategoriesFatal Accidents – Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet – 2003 Through 2012
Reactive: Tending to react, characterized by reaction Proactive: Preparing for, intervening in, or controlling an expected occurrence or situationPredictive: Inference regarding a future event based on probability
The Spectrum of Safety
Reactive Predictive
Fly-crash-fix-flyIdentify hazardsas they appear in accidents
Study past accidents and incidents to identify hazards and reduce risk
Proactive
Utilize data from incidents and normal operations to identify trends and reduce risk before an accident happens
Single Accident Data----------Consolidated Accident/Incident Data ------Accident/Incident/Operational Data
Data Availability/Utilization
Predicting
• We can easily predict 90% of next year’s accidents
- There will be 1 or 2 upset aircraft
- > 50% will be approach and landing - Half of those will be runway excursions
- There will be at least 2 Jet and 4 Turboprop CFIT accidents
“Black swan” events
Predicting
- TWA-800
- QF-32
- BA-038
Being Predictive
• Can we be predictive ?
Being Predictive
• Can we be predictive ?
YES
Fatalities by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy Team (CICTT) Aviation Occurrence CategoriesFatal Accidents – Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet – 2003 Through 2012
Safety Fatality Data - Circa 1992Safety Fatality Data - Circa 1992
Collision with terrain
Approach and landing
ATC systems
Maintenance
Loss of control
Postcrash survival
Inflight fire/smoke
Engine failures
Airport ground control
Nonconfiguration takeoffs
Windshear
Deicing/anti-icing
Rejected takeoff
300025002000150010005000
• Can detect trends and future hazards
Trending
* Systems
* Locations
* Procedures
ASAP and FOQA Analysis of OAK Arrivals Receiving TAWS
Alerts
TCAS Hotspot Snap Shot
Being Predictive
• Will it be successful in reducing risk ?
Predictive Challenge
- Being able to get the support of the decision makers
Keys to Predictive Success
2. Decision maker support
1. Data and the technology to use the data to make the risk management case
A Change of Paradigm
Outcome Based
Event Based
Keys to Predictive Success
Outcome Based vs Event Based
583 Fatalities
0 Fatalities
Since 1995 (19 years):Average 1.0 a year165 Fatalities
Since 1995 (19 years):Average 40.0 a year1,121 Fatalities
1977
2005
The Spectrum of Safety
Reactive Predictive
Fly-crash-fix-flyIdentify hazardsas they appear in accidents
Study past accidents and incidents to identify hazards and reduce risk
Proactive
Utilize data from incidents and normal operations to identify trends and reduce risk before an accident happens
Single Accident Data----------Consolidated Accident/Incident Data ------Accident/Incident/Operational Data
Data Availability/Utilization
Negative Outcome Negative Outcome(s) Events
Challenges to beingsuccessful in
predicting• Data
• Technology to utilize data
• Support of a reactive system TBATBA
X
X
2013 Summary
Aviation Safety 2013
Commercial jets had another great year
Turboprops had an average year
CFIT has returned as the leading killer
We now have the capability to be predictive in our safety efforts – but is the system ready to take advantage of this capability ?
Business jets had a better than average year
Making Aviation Safer by Making Aviation Safer by reducing the Risk of an reducing the Risk of an
AccidentAccident
