2013 SVN Economic Forum Handout

7/29/2019 2013 SVN Economic Forum Handout

1/11


2/11

]The world is changing rapidly and a deep

commitment to nimbleness, exibility, and

execuon has the potenal to spur big gains

for Oregons mid-valley economy

J B

SalemAREACHAMBER OF COMMERCE

JASON BRANDTCEO

T S A C f C f

y M-W Vy. W 1,200

py ppxy 35,000 g g,

y pp p.

T g . A - f p

y pf y p. O

g p - y f p f y

j. W y g y,

, x f x y f .

F--f y , g

p, pg p, ppg y

g y py , .

MAILING ADDRESS:1110 Commercial St. N.E., Salem, OR 97301LOCATION: Corner of Market and Commercial StreetPHONE: 503-581-1466FAX: 503-581-0972

[

3

LINEUP

2

JENNIFER MARTIN, ccimSPERRY VAN NESS

TONK FISCHERFISCHER HAYES & ASSOCIATES, p.c.

CURT ARTHUR, siorSPERRY VAN NESS

MARK SHIPMANSAALFELD GRIGGS pc

CHRIS FISCHER,ccimSPERRY VAN NESS

DON COLEMANWELLS FARGO

CHAD FREEMANSEDCOR

CORY REDDING

CD REDDING CONSTRUCTION

JASON BRANDTMASTER OF CEREMONIES

TODAYS


3/11

CD REDDINGCONSTRUCTION

CORY REDDINGP

[ ]Building Customer Sasfacon

COMPONENTS OF HARDCONSTRUCTION COSTS

TOTAL PROJECTCOST BREAKDOWN

BUILDING TYPES

OFFICE

15,000 SFPf

$47 - $57

10,000 SFN f

$190 - $200

5,000 SFN pf f $130 - $140

INDUSTRIAL

100,000 SFW p fy

$54 - $64

50,000 SFN g

$99 - $109

30,000 SFN -p x g

$64 - $74

20,000 SFN p-g g &

$16 - $26

RETAIL

10,000 SFN

$130 - $140

TENANT IMPROVEMENTS

8,000 SF Pf $56 - $66

2,000 SF Pf $62 - $72

5,000 SF W $50 - $60

1,500 SF M $73 - $83

1,500 SF R $49 - $59

1,500 SF R $41 - $51

AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION COSTS

5


4/11

480 A f , y , f$2.50/SF

T y p pp

Epy g f fg

Ep 3 5 y ppy x f g g P 1C.

Exp pg 180 y.

W pg p

100 A f p p/

FORMER LOOSE ENDS2065 MADRONA AVE SE

S : Gg Cp, LLCP: $1,075,000N: 17,476 SF 2.78

NOTEWORTHY PROJECTS

FORMER SENECA FACILITY1746 OXFORD STREET SE, SALEM

L : K FS: 118,000 SFN: Exp f 60,000

FORMER SUMCO SOUTH3950 FAIRVIEW INDUSTRIAL DR SE

S : L IP: $5,967,500N: 189,376 SF 10.5

VACANCY RENTS CONSTRUCTION ABSORBTION

2012

2013

2012

2013

VACANCY RENTS CONSTRUCTION ABSORPTIONVACANCY RENTS CONSTRUCTION ABSORPTION

2012

2013

MILL CREEK CORPORATE CENTER

76

SEDCOR p p

g g p

y M- W g.

SEDCOR y g

p f p g pj

py $144m

y. If ,

xp ppxy 1,600

j g. T pj

p g xp

S g.

MISSIONSTATEMENT

Lg g f P/P pp,

ggy g g g j

p , pg

pp M P C.

Source:SEDCOR

Source: Sperry Van Ness Commercial Advisors, LLC

20122011

7,1

29s

f

29,7

72s

f

CHAD FREEMANpresident

[email protected]

2013INDUSTRIAL

MARKET UPDATE

INDUSTRIALLEASING

30,000 SF

27,000 SF

24,000 SF

21,000 SF

18,000 SF

15,000 SF

12,000 SF

9,000 SF

6,000 SF

3,000 SF

2010

10,3

08s

f

20122 01 0 2 01 1

450,000 SF

400,000 SF

350,000 SF

300,000 SF

250,000 SF

200,000 SF

150,000 SF

100,000 SF

50,000 SF

216,4

68s

f

156,8

51sf

430,2

08s

f

VOLUME OF LEASING AVG. TRANSACTION SIZE

YEAR

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

VOLUME

$9,474,498

$1,540,000

$5,241,000

$1,318,998

$11,400,000

$14,420,400

$25,746,992

$7,084,700

INDUSTRIAL SALES

T f g g y, g, p

g p f x p f y. Tg , f p xp - 2013-2014. S f pj y q fg f .

%

T y f, 12.8% 2011, 2012

12.3% p y g

g y. T g g f 2012

$.33/SF p , g. F y f

f . W g

y p- , y g g

g f $.23/SF, g f .

W f g

y p 2012,

g. M f

f -

K Cp

Np (6 ) K

xp

g. T

g f

40,000 SF g (

), f y

, 2009.

Source:WVMLS


5/11

Largest commercial real estate lender in the U.S. with a strong local presence in Salemand all of Oregon.

Construction loans Secured lines of credit Repositioning/rehab lending Mini-perm loansInterim/bridge loans Term loans Acquisition Interest rate swaps

Don Coleman 503-945-2366 [email protected]

Tara Stevenson 503-945-2376 [email protected]

Jennifer Tyler 503-945-2413 [email protected]

Consistent commercialreal estate leadership

2013 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved.Member FDIC. MC-5391

wellsfargo.com/realestate

Hampton Inn Salem

DON COLEMANS V P

W Fg C R E y xp p g / g q,, xp p . W p fp f g p. B gg, , f p ppy yp:

A f p pg 30 yLIBOR. Sp ppy yp py f p. O yp g 3.0% 3.5%.

L f y . A 10% y ypy qy f 15% g f 70%. A y qy.

W Fg g People, Credit and Real Estate. W p We want to sasfy all our customersnancial needs and help them succeed nancially. F g p pj, W Fg y f ppy f p p yp y .

[ ]We have enjoyed a long term relaonship

with Wells Fargo - they have been a smart,

consistent, reliable provider of credit to us in

good and bad markets.Mk B

R E I

WELLS FARGO

*Debt yield dened as stabilized NOI divided by loan amount

9

PROPERTY TYPE DEBT YIELD*

MULTI-FAMILY 10%

SELF STORAGE 10%

RETAIL/OFFICE/INDUSTRIAL 11%

HOSPITALITY 12%


6/11

CHRIS FISCHER, ccimsenioradvisor

[email protected]

%CURRENT VACANCY - I 2012, y , w wy y gwg . W y yg 5%, wg y. Ag k 20,000 , w y 3%, 600 , k 1,000 . T w 400 , w y 2012.

20 09 2 01 0 2 01 1 2 012

30

27

24

21

18

15

12

9

6

3

2012 y g y y. Mfy

g, y.N g

y. H fy , f qyppy S g .

2012RECAPI 2012 gq y ppy p p qy ppy p. I p f yf fy, y L

-, pg p.By f yp pf, gy q y pj , f qy gg pg. Fy y g f . M g p p , g- pp q p p y .

T gy 2012, x pp.T fg , f y y

. Ag P , g y.

B ,

g xp

y

g. T

ppy f

p

p g. T

q , W

g y?

If qy

y f

,

.

O pyg

---, pg

f g

f g. H,

y p

g x

f ,

p p

.

2013PREDICTION

Mfy f p

y. Qy y f pp

p , f

g . Mfypj g

gy B qy , p

p p p .T

p g pp.

Bk A | S, ORS : P ByP: $2,250,000 C: 7.06%N: 44 U, $51,136 p

A | S, ORS : P ByP: $2,000,000 C: 6.55%N: 23 U, $86,956 p

M | S, ORS T: K PP: $8.5M C: 6.0% PROFORMAN: 85 , x-.D , $36.2M

2 005 20 06 20 07 200 82 00 3 2 00 4

MULTIFAMILYSALES

2013INVESTMENT&

MULTIFAMILYMARKET UPDATE

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

2009 2010 2011 20122005 2006 2007 20082003 2004

REGIONAL CAP RATES & 10 Yr TREASURY

S C MS : Ggy G & AP: $43.5 MN: 76% ltv 4.8%, 61 .

G S | C, ORS T: P ByP: $2,990,000 C: 6.4%N: 1031 Exg, 3 y g

O C Hy | S, ORS T: P ByP: $1,215,000 C: 6.95%N: 15 Y g, g p

multi-family

MULTIFAMILY

CAP

RATES

INTEREST

RATES

# OF

TRANS.DEVELOPMENT

INVESTMENT

NOTEWORTHY PROJECTS

1110

2012

2012

MULTIFAMILY

Source:PowellValuatonInc

Source: Powell Valuaon Inc and Sperry Van Ness Commercial Advisors, LLC


multifamily

investmentsnonmultifamily

10yearust


7/11

MARK SHIPMANS

Sg Cg

Mg f SIC U Sy C B U Sy

C SIC , f py f , gy . If py f, .

U y, y fp . Sp pp f

g . E xp f f p . W ,xp y y p f f , y f , .

T g, p p, g f , xpf j, g f ppp, f fg/pq, g -g.

W P

118 R Ap; 5500 SF p

200 R D S

125 j

$17M pj

R g f p

N pg f RfP x pg (15p) pg Cy

Ex f P A R/P (F & S S)

Cy f p f

f B

N Bk P Mq A R C

38,000 SF fy

50 j S

$13M pj

App f (ARC) fB p f f f N B S B p

R f Pg C

Sg y (py p f, , pg)

From concept to realizaon,

Saalfeld Griggs is equipped to help you

through each step of your goal.

503.399.1070

www.sglaw.com

Todiscussyourupcomingprojectpleasecontact:

REAL ESTATE Jim Griggs, Mark Shipman, Caleb Williams

LAND USEMark Shipman, Alan Sorem, Nate Boderman

CONSTRUCTIONHunter Emerick, Shannon Marnez

The Real Estate & Land Use Group at Saalfeld Griggs

has extensive experience in urban and rural land use

and development maers. Lawyers in the group rep

resent individuals and enes in a wide variety of real

property maers. The group takes pride in its ability

to address issues before they become true complica

ons.

We regularly collaborate with the other real estate

and development professionals, as well as other prac

ce groups within the rm, to ensure that issues in

volving real property are accurately and efficiently

idened. With the understanding that me regularly

has a direct impact on the success or failure of a pro

ject, the group commits to nding the most praccal

soluon to all real property and land use maers.

Letushelpyousuccessfullycompleteyourdevelopmentprojectorrealestatetransacon.

[ ]From concept to realizaton,

Saalfeld Griggs is equipped to helpyou through each step of your goal.

SAALFELDGRIGGSpc

1314

SIGNIFICANT 2013 LAND USE PROJECTS

PUBLIC UDC R f SDp C

PRIVATE B Rp


8/11

w

A f ,

S/K

2012. M

y

y,

g y

g

y. T g

y.

T S C A

, y

y xg 30%

g f

60,000 SF py.

Ag g

y gy

f y, g

$1.59/SF, p ,

f .

MARKETSTATISTICS

W g 5-6 q f 20,000 75,000SF, 2013 pg p g y. T S fOg, , g y. W p xg g y y p y 1-3%.

N p g y.K P , g f f f N S/K. BS C S H xpg fp , M M Igg pg f-y p M 12 S.

Ag g f y $1.59/SF,

f , p f $1.53 2011. Hg C

A g $2.00-$2.45/SF

g y $1.40-$1.75/SF g.

SALMON RUN1750 MCGILCHRIST STREET SE

L : VA M CS: 30,000 SFN: Lg x SSy.

NOTEWORTHY PROJECTS

PacTrust KUEBLER PROJECTSEC OF BATTLECREEK AND KUEBLER

R: $21/SF NNNS: 15,000 SFN: Aj S C

NEW MEDICAL DEVELOPMENT1155 MISSION ST SE

Tg: Dy y 2015A: M M Igg

27.7%

north

13.6%

classa

30.4%

suburbanclassa

26.7%

classb

23.3%

classc

14.8%

east

21.4%

south

11.4%

west

8%medical

Source: Sperry Van Ness Commercial Advisors, LLC2012 OFFICE VACANCY BY CLASS

2013PREDICTION

%T S/K k 2012 w y 22.1%, y 3,942,000 SF.T q g y 400,000 SF 2012. T y y 14% 2011. WS, M C Aww -k y w y g .

$1.59

1514

medical

CURT ARTHUR, siormanagingdirector

[email protected]

C Sq, y

f M Cy T D, g xpp f Spg, 2014.D py

g 75,000 SF y y p .

T g p

g. W gg y g , gpp p f 2013.PacTrust g 40,000 SF K, y S C.

S H jp K g pp 2013-2014 M 12 S.

2012RECAPT p.2012 y f f y gy g- y. T

p f f pp g y.

Mp S C Ag g p y g - g 30% y. L pp p -.

Lg y f 2003 gy 56,000 SF f 2012. W fg g y 2013

120,000 SF f . Ap g96,000 SF.

T S f Og, ppxy25% f p , p 51

g f f 10,000SF Jy 25 y xp ExO g p . T g g f y f g py, g p ppg p .

I 2013, xp f S f Og q 30,000 100,000 q f Dp f F & Wfg F I D.

2009 2010 2011 20122005 2006 2007 20082004

LEASINGVOLUME

2013OFFICE

MARKET UPDATE

stateof

oregon

225,000 SF

200,000 SF

175,000 SF

150,000 SF

125,000 SF

100,000 SF

75,000 SF

50,000 SF

25,000 SF

Source:WVMLS

CBD

VACANCY


9/11

FISCHER HAYES& ASSOCIATES, p.c.

TONK FISCHERP

Fischer, Hayes, & Associates, P.C.

income tax minimization | retirement planning

business consulting | litigation support

QuickBooks |financial statement assurance

management consulting |business valuations

3295 Triangle Drive SE, Ste 200 Salem OR 97302-4580 | Phone: 503-378-0220 | www.fhapc.com

[ ]Specializing in helping

closely-held and family-owned

businesses achieve nancial goals

and objecves

GIFTING

ISSUES

ESTATE TAX

EXEMPTION$5.12M $1.0M $5.25M

T p jg 2012 x g. N p f $10 g p p g pp gy. KMx g Og x p.

TOP ESTATE RATE 35% 55% 40%

LIFETIME

GIFTING$5.12M $1.0M $5.25M

ESTATEANNUAL

EXCLUDED GIFTS$13,000 $14,000 $14,000

NEW TAX

RATES FOR

ORDINARY

INCOME

DEFINITION OF"WEALTHY"

N/A > $250K TI > $450K TIMy pg pp y D. 31 . A y x .

TOP INCOME

RATES35%

39.6% + 3.8%1

(43.4%)

39.6% + 3.8%1

+ 1%2 + 1-3%3

(45.4% - 47.4%)

AMT AMTANNUAL

PATCH

PERMANENT

PATCH

A g x y ypg.

CAPITAL

GAINS /

QUALIFIED

DIVIDENDS

TOP CAPITAL

GAIN RATE15%

20% + 3.8%1

(23.8%)

20% + 3.8%1+ 1%2 + 1-3%3

(25.8% - 27.8%) A g x .S 1031 Exg pp.QUALIFIED

DIVIDENDS15%

39.6% + 3.8%1

(43.4%)

20% + 3.8%1

+ 1%2 + 1-3%3

(25.8%- 27.8%)

IMMEDIATE

WRITE

OFFS

BONUS

DEPRECIATION50% 0

50%

12/31/13

B Dp ff 20 y . W S 179 $500K, g g y f; .. 20 y f g.

SECTI ON 179 $139,000 $25,000$500,000 f

2012 & 2013

DE SC RI PTI ON OL D 201 2PREDICTEDFOR 2013

ACTUAL2013

COMMENTS

CHANGES INTHE FEDERAL TAX RATES

CONCLUSION: T g y y . F Cp G p 60%. Mp $10 1031 f g g.

1 obamacare 3.8% non-tax on passive income2 effective phase out of itemized deductions3 effective phase out of personal exemptions

17


10/11

JENNIFER MARTIN, ccimsenioradvisor

[email protected]

2013RETAIL

MARKET UPDATE

I S S, f y,

f , y y p y 1.5%. T 20,000 SF f p y, 15 ppp y 2012.

D pgy pp

p. TMp f 2,300SF, R & MG g p 2013. T g fC, P P Mg y.

CBD

T g f RF M

f f C Cy O Dp y y K, 12.9% 2012. By R Fpg K Vg Sp F KC g f R R y, P pg K S.

I W S, p Sy g

-g p Eg Cg p y M Gpg 710 W R.

T E S

50,000 SF 2012, p p y y 3%. P F,Bg L Py M g p p. Vyf p p y g g .

south

west

east

2012 f 2011,

y

. Of pp

y, 35 pp

y y 14

y. T g . H,29 pp y

g py 2012.

S f pp,

f Sx U Lg, H &

Dg C, P, GI

J f g,

pp

f g

.

2012RECAP

I xp f p p 2013,

pg y g p,

g p: N

G S C, P

(pfy), p f R/

MG CBD

p f -

pp. H, f y

pp

y g f

, p

ygy ,

p

f, f p

xp. T y

p f p p

p - ,

y .

2013PREDICTION

&northkeizer

18

A gg 2010, 12 g 20,000 SF w. By 2012, k. T w, y, k w . T ,w y y w, .

HILFIKER SQUARE4450 COMMERCIAL ST SE

L : Wg W &Ty MgS : Pp E - 7.41% pN: C D 2012

NOTEWORTHY PROJECTS

JIMMY JOHNS601 LANCASTER DRIVE NE

L : R RG II, LLCS: 1,707 SFN: S Jy JG S

VACANCY RENTS CONSTRUCTION ABSORBTION

2012

20132013

VACANCY RENTS CONSTRUCTION ABSORPTION

VACANCY RECAP

centralbusinessdistrict

eastsalem

southsalem

northsalem/keizer

westsalem

totalw/o

malls

2010

2011

2012

2010

2011

2012

2010

2011

2012

2010

2011

2012

2010

2011

2012

2010

2011

2012

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

16.6%16.6%

12.9%12.9%

14.5%14.5% 14.4%14.4%

5.1%5.1%

13.9%

VACANCY RENTS CONSTRUCTION ABSORPTION

13.9%

BUILDINGS

2013

20122012

ROTH MCGILCHRIST102120 LIBERTY & 415 STATE STREET

S : S- LLCP: $870,000N: M- p - /

19

T y p j 1% y. F y , g ff f gg f. T 2012 g p E S, y 3%. T CBD N S/K y g . I S S , f p f fSfy GI J. W S y.


Source:SperryVanNessCommercialAdvisors,L

LC

T NNN p Bg L

f L D. T g j f ( p SF) f

L g f 2010. T

g .

$2.82


11/11

2013 SVN Economic Forum Handout

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