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2013 NEBRASKA POLICY AND ISSUES SUMMIT NEBRASKA CHAMBER OF COMMERCE NOVEMBER 18, 2013 JONATHAN...
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Transcript of 2013 NEBRASKA POLICY AND ISSUES SUMMIT NEBRASKA CHAMBER OF COMMERCE NOVEMBER 18, 2013 JONATHAN...
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2013 NEBRASKA POLICY AND ISSUES SUMMITN E B R A S K A C H A M B E R O F C O M M E R C EN O V E M B E R 1 8 , 2 0 1 3
J O N AT H A N H AU G H T O NS E N I O R E C O N O M I S T, B E A C O N H I L L I N S T I T U T E P R O F E S S O R , D E PA R T M E N T O F E C O N O M I C S , S U F F O L K U N I V E R S I T Y
J H A U G H T O N @ S U F F O L K . E D U
State Competitiveness, November 2013
NE: Competitive or not?
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The Ratings Cacophony
State Competitiveness, November 2013
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Key ideas
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NE GDP weathered the recession about as well as the US Because fundamentals of competitiveness are solid?
Competitiveness: Our measure is Broad Associated with per capita income Helpful in identifying policy-relevant areas of strength,
weaknessNE: Knocking at the top 10
Some others are improving Several problems need attention
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Personal Income per capita
State Competitiveness, November 2013
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NE: Muted recession damage
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Competitiveness Is …
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A state is competitive if it has in place the policies and conditions that ensure and sustain a high level of per capita income and its continued growth. Naturally leads to the question of what these policies and
conditions are
Michael Porter: Competitiveness measures “the microfoundations of prosperity”
and “wealth is actually created at the microeconomic level.”
The BHI index: Inspired by Porter but developed in-house Long-term: what makes a persistent difference to real income?
Policy is important, but only part of the story Natural resources; culture; history.
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The Big Picture: Top 5 + Neighbors
State Competitiveness, November 2013
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MASSACHUSETTS 1 (7.77) COLORADO 6
(6.36) NORTH DAKOTA 2 (6.99) KANSAS
10 (5.77)
MINNESOTA 3 (6.81) NEBRASKA 11
(5.75) SOUTH DAKOTA 4 (6.48) IOWA
13 (5.55)
UTAH 5 (6.42) MISSOURI 32
(4.64)NE: Index was 5.97 in 2011 and 6.36 in 2010.
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State Competitiveness, November 2013
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NE: The trend
Ranks: 2005 7 2006 11 2007 11 2008 14 2009 17 2010 6 2011 6 2012 11
State Competitiveness, November 2013
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8th over the whole period
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NE: The subindexes
NE index NE rank
Government and fiscal policy 5.17 23
Security 5.56 18
Infrastructure 5.64 16
Human resources 5.94 7
Technology 5.00 25
Business incubation 4.84 28
Openness 4.26 40
Environment 5.97 11
Overall 5.75 11
State Competitiveness, November 2013
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NE: Government and fiscal policy
NE index
State & Local taxes/income 4.81
Workers Comp. premia 5.43
Bond rating 5.43
Budget surplus / GSP 5.28
Avg. pmt to insured unemployed 5.64
FTE St. & Loc. Employees/cap 3.82
Overall 5.17
State Competitiveness, November 2013
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NE: Infrastructure
NE index
Mobile phones/1000 4.07
Hi-speed Internet lines/1000 4.46
Air passengers per cap 4.56
Avg. travel time to work 6.58
Electricity prices/kWh 5.71
Apartment rental (2 bdrm) 5.90
Overall 5.64
State Competitiveness, November 2013
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NE: Business Incubation
NE index
Bank deposits/cap 4.84
Venture capital ($/worker) 4.56
Employer firm births/cap 4.89
IPO volume, $/capita 4.53
% of labor force in unions 5.40
Minimum wage 5.19
Tort Reform 4.62
Standardized wage rate 5.48
Overall 4.84
State Competitiveness, November 2013
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NE: Openness (weak spot)
NE index
Exports/capita 5.01
Employment in foreign MNEs 3.97
% foreign-born 4.60
Overall 4.26
State Competitiveness, November 2013
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Subindex 1: Government & Fiscal Policy
State Competitiveness, November 2013
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NE StrengthsBudget surplus % GDP 4
NE WeaknessesGovt. employees/residents 46
Colorado 22Iowa 27Kansas 35Missouri 4Nebraska 23
Massachusetts 33Mississippi 13
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Subindex 2. Security
State Competitiveness, November 2013
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NE StrengthBGA integrity index 6
Colorado 4Iowa 15Kansas 23Missouri 37Nebraska 18
Massachusetts 3Mississippi 45
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Subindex 3: Infrastructure
State Competitiveness, November 2013
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NE StrengthsTravel time to work 3Apartment rental cost 8Electricity prices 9
NE WeaknessesMobile phones/capita 41High-speed lines/capita 34
Colorado 4Iowa 29Kansas 7Missouri 13Nebraska 16
Massachusetts 33Mississippi 41
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Subindex 4: Human Resources
State Competitiveness, November 2013
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NE StrengthsUnemployment rate 2% adults in labor force 2
NE WeaknessesPhysicians/residents 35
Colorado 15Iowa 4Kansas 16Missouri 28Nebraska 7
Massachusetts 1Mississippi 50
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Subindex 5: Technology
State Competitiveness, November 2013
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NE StrengthsS&E graduates/capita 10
NE WeaknessesPatents/capita 39High-tech employment 33
Colorado 7Iowa 19Kansas 26Missouri 27Nebraska 25
Massachusetts 1Mississippi 45
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Subindex 6: Finance/Business
State Competitiveness, November 2013
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NE StrengthsMinimum wage 5
NE WeaknessesVenture capital/capita 39Tort index 33
Colorado 18Iowa 30Kansas 20Missouri 39Nebraska 28
Massachusetts 12Mississippi 24
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Subindex 7: Openness
State Competitiveness, November 2013
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NE WeaknessesEmployment in foreign MNCs
42
Colorado 39Iowa 38Kansas 27Missouri 43Nebraska 40
Massachusetts 8Mississippi 45
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Subindex 8: Environment
State Competitiveness, November 2013
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NE StrengthCarbon emissions/square mile
9
Colorado 19Iowa 24Kansas 12Missouri 33Nebraska 11
Massachusetts 28Mississippi 23
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NE: Long-Term Issues (in bottom 15)
State Competitiveness, November 2013
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S1 (Government/Taxes) High number of govt. employees (46)
S2 (Security) Jump in crime (36)
S3 (Infrastructure) Few mobile phones/cap (41)
S5 (Technology) Patents/capita (39)
S6 (Business Incubation) Venture capital/capita (39)
S7 (Openness) Low employment in foreign MNCs (42)
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Index up 1 point, PCI up $1,893
State Competitiveness, November 2013
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Real personal income per capita = 30,873 + 1,893 × Competitiveness Index
2011 p=0.01
R2 = 0.23PI per capita deflated using a spatial pNEce index (Aten et al. 2011)
3500
040
000
4500
050
000
3 4 5 6 7Competitiveness Index 2011
Rea
l Per
sona
l In
com
e p
er c
apita
, $
'000
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Applied to NE
State Competitiveness, November 2013
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Ranked 11th with index of 5.75 Business: 28th (4.84) Openness: 40th (4.26)
Raise these to the mean (5.0): Rank would rise to 9th with index of 6.02 Real personal income would rise $500 per person per
year That’s a total of $900 million annually.
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State Competitiveness, November 2013
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Suffolk University was founded in 1906, and has over 9,000 students in its College of Arts and Sciences, Sawyer Business School, and Law School.
The Beacon Hill Institute was founded at Suffolk University in 1991 for the purpose of bringing economic analysis to bear on current public policy issues.