2013 Macau Rainy Season Forecast
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Transcript of 2013 Macau Rainy Season Forecast
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2013 Macau Rainy Season Forecast
Macau Meteorological & Geophysical Bureau
Apr 2013
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Climate normal (1981-2010) - Precipitation(mm)
Month Average Below normal Normal Above normal
Jan 26.5 < 7.0 7.0-35.6 > 35.6
Feb 59.5 < 8.4 8.4-55.7 > 55.7
Mar 89.3 < 44.9 44.9-88.5 > 88.5
Apr 195.2 < 105.5 105.5-222.6 > 222.6
May 311.1 < 200.1 200.1-386.8 > 386.8
June 363.8 < 235.2 235.2-431.9 > 431.9
July 297.4 < 175.7 175.7-354.3 > 354.3
Aug 343.1 < 233.7 233.7-393.5 > 393.5
Sept 219.5 < 123.2 123.2-278.0 > 278.0Oct 79.0 < 20.5 20.5-92.1 > 92.1
Nov 43.7 < 7.4 7.4-54.2 > 54.2
Dec 30.2 < 6.8 6.8-35.8 > 35.8
Annual 2058.1 < 1798.8 1798.8-2271.0 > 2271.0
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Climate normal (1981-2010) - Temperature(℃)
Month Average Below normal Normal Above normalJan 15.1 ≤14.5 14.5-15.7 >15.7
Feb 15.8 ≤14.6 14.6-16.6 >16.6
Mar 18.3 ≤17.8 17.8-19.0 >19.0
Apr 22.1 ≤21.7 21.7-22.6 >22.6
May 25.6 ≤25.0 25.0-26.2 >26.2
June 27.6 ≤27.2 27.2-28.0 >28.0
July 28.6 ≤28.3 28.3-29.0 >29.0
Aug 28.4 ≤28.1 28.1-28.7 >28.7
Sept 27.4 ≤27.2 27.2-27.8 >27.8Oct 25.0 ≤24.7 24.7-25.4 >25.4
Nov 20.9 ≤20.4 20.4-21.6 >21.6
Dec 16.8 ≤16.2 16.2-17.5 >17.5
Annual 22.6 ≤22.4 22.4-22.9 >22.9
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Precipitation & Temperature Anomaly in Macau(1952-2012)
(1) Pre-flood season (Apr-June)
(2) Post-flood season (July-Sept)
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Review of 2012 flood season in MacauPrecipitation(mm)Apr-June
Precipitation(mm)July-Sept
Temperature( )℃Apr-June
Temperature( )℃July-Sept
Climate normal(1981-2010) 540.8-1041.3 532.6-1025.8 24.6-25.6 27.9-28.5
Average 870.1 860 25.1 28.1
Amount(2012) 679.6 611.2 25.5 27.9
Anomaly -21.9% -28.9% +0.4 -0.2
Forecast(last year) Normal Normal Normal Normal
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Model prediction for last year(2012) - ECMWF
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2013 rainy season forecast for Macau
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Model prediction- ECMWF
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Model prediction - NCEP
NCEP预测 : 4-6月雨量接近气候正常值
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NCEP预测 : 7-9月雨量接近气候正常值
Model prediction - NCEP
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System & Circulation Analysis
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Historical pattern composite – AMJ
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Historical pattern composite – JAS
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Geopotential height – 500hPa
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Streamline Anomaly – 850hPa
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Precipitation Anomaly
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ITCZ - OLR
数据源 : Linear Inverse Modeling Tropical OLR and SST Anomalies Pentads 12,18,24,30,36,42 Forecasts, NOAA
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Results Analysis
•Subtropical-high is stronger than normal, which is not favored for precipitation but favored for high temperature in South China.•The convection between the eastern Indian Ocean and South China Sea which extends east to the Western Pacific is stronger than normal, which may imply the ITCZ is stronger than normal and is further north.
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ENSO prediction throughout 2013
ENSO-neutral is favored into Northern Hemisphere fall 2013.
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ENSO condition vs. Rainy season in Macau
Source: Running 3-month mean ONI values,http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml Nino Normal Lina
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1952-2012 前冬 ENSO狀態對本澳後汛期氣溫影響
BelowNormalAbove
Nino Normal Lina0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
1952-2012 前冬 ENSO狀態對本澳後汛期降雨影響
BelowNormalAbove
Nino Normal Lina0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
1952-2012 前冬 ENSO狀態對本澳前汛期降雨影響
BelowNormalAbove
Nino Normal Lina0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
1952-2012 前冬 ENSO狀態對本澳前汛期氣溫影響
BelowNormalAbove
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Conclusion Apr-June (Prec.)
Apr-June (Temp.)
July-Sept
(Prec.)July-Sept (Temp.)
ECMWF below normal
above normal normal above
normal
NCEP above normal normal above
normal normal
IRI no signal above normal
no signal
above normal
ENSO reference normal normal normal normal
System analysis
below normal
above normal normal normal
Conclusion
below normal
above normal normal normal
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Thank you !