2013 EXTENSIVE YUKON ICE JAM AND FRESHET FLOODING

J Richard JanowiczWater Resources Branch

Yukon Department of EnvironmentWhitehorse, Yukon

CCRN Workshop on Extreme Weather and Hydrology, Canmore, AB, February 11-12, 2013

2013 FLOODING

2013 Biggest Flood Year in 30 years

• 7 major ice jam / freshet floods

• Ice jam floods in unique locations

• Freshet floods in unique locations

• Both in some locations

In Flood

2013 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL

Low

Moderate

High

Coffee Creek

2012 – 13 WINTER METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS

APRIL 1 SWE

APRIL 2013 METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS

MAY 1 SWE

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Deg

ree

Day

s Fr

ost (

Deg

C)

DAWSON DEGREE DAYS FROST

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

24-Mar 3-Apr 13-Apr 23-Apr 3-May 13-May 23-May 2-Jun 12-Jun

Tem

pera

ture

(0C

)

Mean

2013

2013 DAWSON AIR TEMPERATURE

2013 BREAK-UP

Return to Normal Temperatures Resulted in Rapid Melt and Runoff

Rapid Discharge and Stage Increase

Breaking Ice into Large and Strong Blocks

COMPRESSED RUNOFF PERIOD

PELLY RIVER AT ROSS RIVER

MAY 1 SWE

LIARD RIVER BASIN – FLOOD OF RECORD

Liard River at Upper Crossing 1960 – 2013

Annual Maximum Peak Flow 2012

LIARD RIVER BASIN - 2012

MAY 1 2012 SWE

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

2-Jun 3-Jun 4-Jun 5-Jun 6-Jun 7-Jun 8-Jun 9-Jun 10-Jun

Cum

ulat

ive

Prec

ipita

tion

Dai

ly P

reci

pita

tion

[mm

]

Daily Precipitation - Liard Basin

Frances Lake

Tuchitua

Hasselberg

JUNE 2 – 7, 2012 RAINFALL – LIARD BASIN

YUKON CLIMATE WARMING??

Major Recent Flooding Events (2007, 2009, 2012, 2013)

Some Evidence Climate Warming Yukon Reality

HISTORICAL TEMPERATURE AND

PRECIPITATION

•Summer Temp + 2 - 6 o C

•Winter Temp + 4 - 6 o C

•Summer Precip + 5 - 10 %

•Winter Precip -10 - + 20 %

Annual National Precipitation Departure

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Snow

Wat

er E

quiv

alen

t (m

m)

LOG CABIN SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT 1958 - 2013

HYLAND RIVER SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT 1976 - 2013

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Snow

Wat

er E

quiv

alen

t (m

m)

• Greater Precipitation

• Higher Temperatures

• Compressed Runoff Period

CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE

CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE

Increasing Peak Flows Due to Melting Glaciers / High Elevation Snowmelt

Atlin River nr Atlin

Maximum Annual Peak Flow

100

150

200

250

300

350

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Dis

char

ge

(m3 /

s)

CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE

MARSH LAKE MAXIMUM STAGE 1950 – 2013

RIVER ICE REGIME TRENDS

110

120

130

140

150

1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010Brea

k-up

Dat

es (J

ulia

n Da

y)

Break-up Timing

Yukon River at Dawson (1896-2013)

•Break-up Timing Advanced 6 days

RIVER ICE REGIME TRENDS

313

314

315

316

317

318

319

320

321

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020Br

eak-

up E

leva

tion

(m)

Break-up Severity

Yukon River at Dawson Annual Maximum Break-up Elevation (1896 - 2013)Dawson - 1979

RIVER ICE REGIME TRENDS

TELECONNECTIONS??

HYLAND RIVER SWE

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Snow

Wat

er E

quiv

alen

t (m

m)

LOG CABIN SWE

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Snow

Wat

er E

quiv

alen

t (m

m)

LOG CABIN SWE / SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (PDO INDEX)

HYLAND RIVER SWE / SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE

DAWSON DEGREE DAYS FROST / SST

OTHER TELECONNECT –

IONS ?

1ENSO 2MJO 3PNA 4AO

11-Dec La Nina N-P P

12-Jan La Nina P-0-P P-N

12-Feb N/A N/A N/A

12-Mar La Nina N-P-P P-P-0

12-Apr 0 P-N 0

12-May 0 N-0-0 P

12-Jun 0 P-N-P N-0

12-Jul 0 0-0-N N-P-0

12-Aug 0 N-0-P P-N-N

12-Sep 0 0-0-N P-0-N

12-Oct 0 N N

12-Nov 0 0-N N-P-N

12-Dec 0 N-N-P N

13-Jan 0 P-N P-0 0-N-P

13-Feb 0 8,1,6 P P-N

13-Mar 0 6,7,3 P-N-0 N

13-Apr 0 3,4,N,N 0-N N-P-0

13-May 0 12,34,5,N N P

13-Jun 0 N,N,N,1 N P

13-Jul 0 2,3,N,N N 0

13-Aug 0 N,N,8,1 0 P

13-Sep 0 1,2N,5,6 P N

13-Oct 0 6,N,N,8 N P

13-Nov 0 1,N,N,N N P

13-Dec 0 N,3,4,N N P

1El Nino Southern Oscillation

2Madden-Julian Oscillation

3Pacific North American Oscillation

4Arctic Oscillation

• El Nino – Southern Oscillation

• Madden – Julian Oscillation

• Pacific North American Oscillation

• Arctic Oscillation

FUTURE (PRESENT) DIRECTIONS

• Emergency Measures Organization has Funding to Carry Out Floodplain Mapping of Every Yukon Community

• 2 Year Project• LiDAR Surveys 2014• Environment Yukon Developing Flood

Frequency Curves

THANK YOU