2013 Copper Price Key And Risk Management For Traders

Invast Insights

Week Commencing September 9, 2013

www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278

Things always become obvious after the fact – NassimTaleb

1.0 Copper price key for mining sector

One of the most important indicators we watch on a daily basis is the copper

price, not because we are obsessed with the colour of the metal or its

properties but because of its importance as the key lead indicator for all other

industrial commodities. The history of copper use dates back to the beginning

of mankind. If you are reading this note on a computer or mobile device,

chances are that extensive copper has been used in the components behind

the screen showing you this text.

At Invast we tend to think of commodities in two buckets - first the industrial

commodities that are used in the production of goods and services and

secondly the currency commodities like gold and silver which are held for

different reasons, usually a storage of wealth.


Most experienced traders and investors refer to copper as Dr Copper -

reputed to have a Ph.D. in economics because of its ability to predict turning

points in the global economy. Copper is very widespread in its industrial

application, it finds itself in many different products from homes and

factories, to electronics and power generation and transmission. There are

various ways to generate electricity but not many ways to transport the

electricity from the generators to households or businesses except copper

and other similar substitutes.

Generally, a rising copper price suggests the market anticipating increased

industrial use and also the opposite for when the price is falling. Sure, copper

is not necessarily significant to the earnings composition of large companies

like BHP Billiton or Rio Tinto, but it does have a spill over effect on the way

these shares trade. Take BHP as an example - the largest listed company on

the Australian stock market and one of the largest mining companies globally

in terms of revenue. Despite being one of the largest producers of copper

globally, it only generated 17% of its earnings from this commodity.


Figure 1: BHP's 2013 earnings by commodity classes published to the ASX on 20 August 2013.


BHP also generates around 53% of its earnings from iron ore which is a key

input in the production of steel. Mills don't just produce steel for the sake of it

(we hope not anyway), they will usually change their patterns based on

underlying demand for new buildings which will correspond with the copper

price too. The reason we watch copper so closely is because it is a much more

transparent market than iron ore.

Copper is openly traded on large exchanges like the London Metals Exchange

where we not only see the price being traded but also stockpiles being

gathered to fulfil physical delivery among traders when required. Iron ore on

the other hand is usually more volatile in its pricing and historically has been

subject to annual negotiations between producers and still mills, only

recently become spot traded in a fairly thin market.


Basically our point here, without going into a full academic analysis, is that copper matters and the copper price is similarly watched by large fund managers who allocate their funds into stocks based on spot copper price movements. The performance of mining stocks on the Australian market for example correlates very closely with how the copper price trades. Therefore, it is an easy reference point for us in judging where the stock market is likely to trend over a certain period.

1.1 Who are the key consumers of physical copper?

The simple answer is China matters. There are various estimates out there but most tend to agree that at the moment, China is consuming around 40% of total global copper production. This might sound large on face value but on a per capita basis, China is consuming around 5.4kg per capita compared to North America which is around twice that. So even though China is the largest single swing factor, it is by no means using as much as other developed economies when compared to its population size. It may never do so, but we just want to paint the picture that China is important to where the copper price goes from here.


Being the largest factory in the world, China's copper consumption goes into

its own domestic use but also in making products which it exports to the rest

of the world. As the global economy comes out of a recession, consumers in

the United States, Europe, Japan and other emerging economies are likely to

buy more Chinese products which will impact copper demand.

India is also important and depending on which estimates you believe is

currently consuming around 0.5kg of copper per capita despite having a

population of comparable size to China. India's power needs are likely to

continue growing over the next decade and it will need to invest in its

electricity network in order to keep up with demand, meaning more supply

for copper.


1.2 Where copper stockpiles are trending

The above might sound very optimistic for copper but it hasn't been rosy for

the past year or so. The copper price has barely moved, languishing in the low

US$3 per pound range. Many copper producers have struggled to grow their

earnings without significant investment. BHP's earnings snapshot above

confirms this, with revenue up 3.4% on the same period last year but earnings

declining by more than 8%. This comes despite a huge investment in its

copper assets which are amongst the most attractive in the world.

The reason for the languishing copper price has been primarily a very large

increase in the stockpiles managed by exchanges. We use the London Metals

Exchange data because it is easy to understand, transparent, large enough to

make it significant and most importantly, free to follow for ordinary investors.

We source all our data from www.kitcometals.com and present the following

charts:


Figure 2: 30 day London Metals Exchange warehouse stockpile levels via www.kitcometals.com


On first impression the chart above would suggest that copper stockpiles or

supply has been falling over the last month which should be positive for the

copper price overall, particularly given the medium term demand picture. But

the chart above doesn't completely tell the full story as to why copper has

been languishing for the past year in the low US$3 per pound range. The

chart below tells a better picture.


Figure 3: 5 year London Metals Exchange warehouse stockpile levels via www.kitcometals.com


The amount of copper supply has swing to the highest levels seen in the past

five years, even during the rough patches of the European debt crisis, since

November last year. The increase has been huge.

1.3 Where the copper price goes from here

The trend downwards in copper stockpiles over the past month or so is

positive but we need to see more in the coming months if the copper price is

going to rise and push with it mining and material stocks not only on the

Australian market but in other stock markets too. As mining stocks rise, so too

will service providers like drilling companies, engineering, construction and

other ancillary providers.

We don't see any major upward move in mining and material stocks or other

related sectors until the copper price breaks through the US$3.65/lb

resistance level illustrated on the chart below. Zoom in to view the full chart

in its complete resolution.


Figure 4: Daily one year chart on spot copper price via www.tradingview.com


With the current spot copper price sitting at US$3.27 per pound at the time of writing, there does seem to be some consolidation in price action but n ot enough momentum for the time being to see major resistance levels being broken. We'll continue to monitor the copper price and stockpile action closely in the coming weeks but at this stage there isn't too much excite on our end for the materials and resource sectors of the stock market. The S&P/ASX200 Materials Index (ticker code XMJ) will probably struggle to break through the 10,000 level until the copper price starts to move first above US$3.39 per pound and then head towards US$3.65 per pound.

2.0 Nokia & Microsoft deal puts m mobile sector in spotlight

Our initial reaction to the news that Microsoft is buying Nokia's headset unit was that both companies are still stuck in the 90s - perhaps a bit harsh but sometimes perceptions are difficult to brush off. The aut hors of this report are using Google Docs as a business solution to Microsoft Office. Chances are more of you reading this report are either using an android or Apple tablet device.


The decision by Microsoft though to bite the bullet and get serious about its

mobile business is probably an indication of where it sees the future and so

it's a case of better late than never. Nokia still make s some great devices and

Microsoft was the operating system king back in its heyday, so there is a very

large opportunity to get things right.

We don't really care if Microsoft's investment pays off or is successful, what we

care more about is how to invest along the mobile device explosion in the

Australian market. There isn't too much choice, unfortunately we lack the

width and depth of technology stocks that are listed on the Nasdaq for

example. But there is a growing niche out there of companies looking

towards the shift from fixed to mobile devices, not always successful in their

attempt to commercialise technology, though they are at least trying and that

is good enough for us to cast an eye over some emerging Australian names.


Before we get to the list of Australian stocks, as a broad medium-long term theme we think there will be huge investment opportunities in contactless payment systems. As cash payments have shifted to cards over the past few decades, the next phase will see cards shift to contactless electronic devices, probably smart-phones functioning as wallets. There already is a growing rift between Google and its Google Wallet initiative, eBay with PayPal and MCX, a joint initiative between some of the largest retailers in the United States including Wal-Mart, Target, Sears and 7- Eleven. Everybody wants a piece of the contactless payment evolution and it's something we will write about in coming months.

2.1 Australian small cap stocks leveraged to mobile growth

We ran a scan for small cap (capitlisation) companies listed in the Australian market that have a business model genuinely leveraged to growth in mobile telecommunications. It wasn't an easy task, there are plenty of small companies that say they are a mobile Telco business but on a deeper analysis things aren't what they seem.


We short listed three stocks - Adslot (ADJ), Mobile Embrace (MBE) and

MOKO.mobi (MKB). All three businesses have a market cap of less than $50m

so these aren't exactly in the same ballpark as Apple, Google or Microsoft but

they are working hard at developing a niche in the mobile space and we think

worthy to add to your watch list.

Adslot (ADJ) -The business links publishers and media buyers looking at

purchasing display advertising through its platform. The hope is that it frees

up both sides from administrative, non-value adding functions. The investor

relations team could do a better job in explaining the whole process to simple

minded analysts, like us. But it's always good to see a business focusing on its

own customers which is more important than selling its idea to the market.

Results will sell themselves.


Total shareholder returns have been 22.2% for the past year but flat on a five

year basis, so the ride has been rocky. Adslot has a market capitalisation of

$42m at the time of publishing, it generated revenue of around $4.7m for the

2013 financial year but is still losing around $6.5m. What has caught the

attention of some investors is a deal with eBay Australia which official

launched their Adslot media store a few weeks ago.

Mobile Embrace (MBE) - We have been skeptical of the run-up in share price

but we thought we would lay down our prejudice against MBE and have a

closer look. MBE says it enables companies to reach and transact with

consumers on their mobile devices, resulting in direct payments. Basically a

mobile advertising and mobile payments business with some marketing

functions in the middle.


Total shareholder returns have been 284% over the past year and 20.7%

annually over the past five years, so shareholders are clearly backing future

growth potential. The business is generating revenue of around $11.4m and is

basically breaking even with a market capitalisation of a modest $24m as at

the time of writing. The share register is fairly wide open with the top ten

shareholders controlling around 38% of the stock.

MOKO.mobi (MKB) - The name caught our attention but on a closer look there

seems to be an equally interesting business here. MKB has a core strength in

building mobile applications and then provides social media and marketing

opportunities around it. The list of partnerships with content owners is fairly

large. In March 2013 it signed an agreement with the American Collegiate

Intramural Sports network pitching it to over 200 US colleges to promote

their services. The application in this instance helps both faculty staff and

students plan their sports, read news and announcements, interact etc.


Is it profitable? The quick answer is no, the business booked around $6.3m in

losses on around $6m of revenue for the prior financial year, but like all these

things, there are many reasons behind the story. The business has a market

capitalisation of around $41m as at the time of writing so clearly investors are

expecting profitability into the future and total shareholder returns have

averaged 135% over the past year and 13.1% annually over the past five years

- so this deserves a closer look.

2.2 Where Telstra fits into it all

The above list of Australian companies are mostly speculative plays at best

and are more media type businesses with a mobile focus, as opposed to a

mobile payment or mobile device exposure. Telstra is the only real domestic

option for investors looking for a stable, reliable business leveraged to mobile

communications.


Telstra generates around $9.2bn from its mobile division and the following

chart shows the trend in revenue and earnings in this juggernaut. Mobile

earnings were 10.7% higher than the same period last year, which compares

with a 6.1% fall in Telstra's fixed line business. Clearly, Telstra's future is all

about its mobile growth and obviously the NBN which will be expanded into

mobile devices.


Figure 5: Telstra presentation to the ASX dated 8 August 2013


Telstra achieved this strong result in its mobile division by adding 1.25 million

domestic customers over the past year, bringing its total mobile customer

base to 15.1m - clearly the dominant player in a country with a population of

22.3m people. Telstra also has a media business - Sensis and advertising

through publications like White Pages and Yellow Pages. These media assets

are separate to its investment in Foxtel. Sensis and the others are heading

backwards with earnings down 21.7% in this division when compared to the

same period last year. See the image below.


Figure 6: Telstra presentation to the ASX dated 8 August 2013


With a far more superior mobile network than its peers, a huge customer base

with strong brand loyalty and an explosion of mobile device demand set to

continue over the next decade, Telstra is by far the highest quality exposure

we can think of.

You can to go sleep at night without having to worry about Telstra slashing its

dividend or its earnings, but you don't necessarily have the upside potential

like the three names above which have all performed strongly over the past

few months. There are other smaller players competitors to Telstra to chose

from but we just can't compare them to Telstra's scale. The real opportunity

for Telstra is to reinvigorate its media division, perhaps by funding or buying

some new niche technologies.


3.0 AMP going into China - what does it mean?

AMP is one of Australia's largest funds management and insurance groups. Its recent earnings have been hit by a cyclical downturn in the once very profitable life insurance division - also called wealth protection. We added AMP to our model portfolio last week because we think it is very well placed to ride out any short term earnings downturn and bank on the ongoing growth in Australian superannuation investments.

The group announced a joint venture with one of the largest Chinese insurance companies this week - China life. The stock went ex dividend on the same day but managed to rally in the subsequent days - meaning those holding have banked a healthy fully franked cheque and sitting on some modest trading profit. The actual deal with China life is unlikely to see huge earnings for AMP but what it does do is set up the company to future deregulation of the Chinese funds management and investment space. AMP will only have a 15% shareholding but this will become more significant over time.


3.1 Why the deal is attractive

We like the deal for several reasons. First, AMP has acknowledged the need to

move offshore and has undertaken a relatively low-risk joint venture

approach. Secondly, the joint venture partner has the distribution network,

branding and government relationships required - something that cannot be

easily replicated. Thirdly, Chinese regulators appreciate the need to open up

the market to ordinary investors to take speculative money out of property.

This is a long term plan and the AMP joint venture needs to be considered as

a 10 or 20 year project and not something immediate.

Not anybody can enter the Chinese funds management industry. Regulations

published on the China Securities Regulatory Commission's (CSRC) website in

December set distinct barriers for the new entrants. Securities houses must be

profitable, with at least 20 billion Yuan ($3.21 billion) in assets under

management (AUM) and at least 1 billion Yuan in net assets in the most

recent quarter.


3.2 What does the future hold for AMP?

There are plenty of regional fund managers that would love to have access to

the Chinese market, but very few of them know how to make it happen and

commercialise it. AMP seems to have kicked two goals - underscored the

attractiveness of its funds management model and secured a credible and

large distribution partner to work with.

While many in the market will dismiss this as a negligible earnings

contributor, we actually think it is a lot more significant to the group's long

term future. Asian expansion, like Australian listed insurer IAG is learning, is

not just about earnings but relationships and partners. We continue to view

AMP favourably, it will remain as a core portfolio holding underpinned by its

solid dividend yield and upside to a turnaround in its insurance business and

equity markets generally.


4.0 Risk management for traders

One of the most important elements in trading successfully is understanding

your risk and properly managed it. A good trader with a wonderful strategy is

bound to succumb to emotional pitfalls when it comes to trading. One way to

avoid such pitfalls is to know the risk and employ a position size that matches

your capital so as to avoid over- leveraging a position.

4.1 Account killer

Over-leverage is an “account killer”, when a trader over-leverages they lose

control of the market and at the mercy of market volatility. Understand that

leverage is a double-edged sword, used correctly it allows a trader to access

the market with much less capital requirement, allowing them to profit more

but at the same time exposed to the same risk of the large position taken in

the market. Every trader needs to understand that leverage is not a tool to get


rich overnight but simply a luxury that allows participation with minimal capital. Position size taken in a leveraged market should therefore be managed according to a trader’s capital and the available leverage on the trader’s account.

Let’s take a look at the AUS200 example below:

AUS 200 example:

Capital: $5000 Leverage: (1:200) AUS200 @ 4000 1 lot = $1/point

Margin required for 1 lot: 4000x0.5% = $200 Available equity: $5000-$200 = $4800

At $1/point the only chance a trader could blow up their account is when AUS200 falls more than 4800 points, which is highly unlikely unless the Australian market melts down and ceases to exist. The average daily market movement in a AUS200 in 2012-2013 period is around 60-80 points per day. A trader with a capital of $5000 sticking to a maximum risk of 2% on a trade can accommodate loss of $100 that is 100 points and more than the average daily movement in the AUS200. This minimises the exposure in the market by having a limit higher than what the average daily range is.


The problem with most traders in a leveraged market is the urge to gain

significantly in a short period of time by increasing the lot size of the position.

Referring to the above calculation should the trader decide to increase the lot

size to 2 quickly cuts down the freedom of withstanding the market

movement from 100 points to 50 points; essentially halving the available

market movement before the 2% limit is hit. Don’t forget about the

transaction cost or margin requirement either. The example below illustrates

what happens if the trader decides to place 10 lots instead of 1 and you will

clearly see how this gets out of control very quickly.

Calculation for 10 lots in AUS200:

Capital: $5000 Leverage: (1:200) AUS200 @ 4000 10 lot = $10/ point

Margin required for 10 lot: 4000x0.5%x10 = $2000 Available equity: $5000-

$2000 = $3000

$3000/10 = 300 point


4.2 Position sizing matters

Very few traders out there realize the importance of balanced position sizing and many simply made the mistake of ignoring the size of their trading account when taking on new positions. Resulting in over-leveraging and soon find themselves in a hole they cannot dig out from. Correct position sizing protects you by limiting the exposure to your capital and reduces the total amount of loss. Sadly there are no golden rules for position sizing but most traders stick to 1%, 2% and up to 5% exposure of their capital at any given time; this is in reference to all of the positions open at any given time.

Thankfully a formula to correctly calculate the maximum position size for any given trade exists and can be calculated as such:

(Account Risk/ Trade Risk)=Position Size

• Where account risk is your risk based off capital percentage.

• Trade risk is derived from analysis; this is your stop loss risk.


EXAMPLE

Account size = $10,000

Capital Risk = 2% of $10,000

Stop loss is 50 pips

Position Size = 200/50 = 4 Lots

This allows a trader not only to minimise the risk but allows him/her to

employ the maximum safe lot for a particular trade that is directly correlated

to their available capital.

4.3 Trading with stop losses

In addition to position sizing which helps prevent a trader from over-

leveraging the key aspect in risk management is trading with stop losses. This

section will illustrate why there is a need to prevent huge losses.


If trading is a video game, then your capital is your life bar. Without capital it

is game over as such, preserving it is of the utmost importance. A trader has

to accept that losses in trading are inevitable, but a successful trader manages

and control these losses. It is only natural that when we take a trade we tend

to focus on potential profits and dwell on possible losses. We are usually so

convinced that the trade will be profitable, that we tend to ignore the

possible losses that would occur should the trade go wrong, but in order to

be successful identifying possible losses is the top priority.

A trader must have a money management policy. It is nothing but a set of

techniques that help minimize the risk of loss, while still enabling you to

participate in major price gains. Ironically, it is probably the most critical

aspect of trading and the most overlooked.


In the Forex markets especially, with the use of high leverage it becomes an absolute must to have a money management policy which simply entails entering a trade with a proper stop loss, and exiting the trade with a sufficient profit, conserves and increases your trading capital. As the popular saying goes “take care of your losses, and the profits will take care of themselves!”

Without implementation of loss control techniques, a sudden large drawdown can shrink an account to such an extent, that the possibility of attaining profitability becomes remote. This is probably the most important lesson in trading, which should be well understood by any trader that while losses are to be expected in trading, controlling them is the first vital step in money management.

A single loss is not only a loss of c capital, it also puts you two steps behind the quest to profitability. This is because the percent gain needed to recover from a loss increases geometrically with every loss.

The table below illustrates the concept, and hence the importance of controlling the loss of capital:


The graph should illustrate the significance of thinking about the potential

losses before potential gains, and I will share some tips to help in making stop

loss placements.

Don't set dollar stops – be technical

• The most important and basic principle is that stops should never be mere

dollar values stops, but technically correct stops

• One cannot decide on the stop level based on personal risk level, i.e.: by

saying that “I am going to risk only $50 for the trade”

• The market does not care about your risk levels

• It does however respects the technical levels

• Hence a stop must be at a technical level, regardless of how far it is away

from your entry

• Those “comfortable” dollar stops get stopped out more often than not,

which defeats the very purpose of placing a stop


Suggestions for setting stops (for long trades):

1. Set the stop just under yesterday's low unless yesterday was a big up day. Then move the stop closer to today's open

2. Set the stop just under a recent minor support level

3. Use the daily Average True Range to determine the expected movement, and set the stop just beyond the range amount

4. Move stops up as the price rises, first to break even, then to protect profits. For trailing stops, don't lower - only raise them

5. As the price moves up and tends to "top out" or market conditions become unfavourable, tighten the stop closer to the market price

a. "Up or Out" - either price goes up, or you are out of the trade


Suggestions for setting stops (for short trades):

1. Set the stop just above yesterday's high unless yesterday was a big down

day. Then move the stop closer to today's open

2. Set the stop just above a recent minor resistance level

3. Use the daily Average True Range to determine the expected movement,

and set the stop just beyond the range amount

4. Move stops down as price falls, first to break even, then to protect profits.

For trailing stops, don't raise - only lower them

5. As price moves down and tends to "bottom out" or market conditions

become unfavourable, tighten the stop closer to the market price

a. "Down or Out" - either price goes down, or you are out of the trade


5.0 Book review - The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb

This is a must read for every trader who enjoys financial markets. Don't expect a magic solution or something that will promise you the key to success. It's also not the easiest book to pick up, particularly in the first few chapters where author Nassim Taleb likes to dictate his own terms. But once you work your way through the book you will really start to see the underlying concepts of Taleb's main argument - risk is difficult to measure and predict and you have to position yourself in markets and life generally to limit downside from major negative events and also capture the huge upside from life changing moments.

Nobody has done as good an effort as Nassim Taleb in explaining risk in layman's terms while applying it to financial markets. You only have to Google the title of the book to see the hundreds of positive reviews in Amazon and other websites. Taleb takes a swipe at conventional finance and focuses on its limitations, something which is often overlooked in business school and other publications. This book is also effective because it isn't a self gratifying


biography, rather a framework around risk management coming from a real

traders who oversaw a major European bank's derivative desk in the late

1980s. If you think this is a doomsday book you are wrong, there is just as

much effort put towards making money as there is towards not losing money.

The Black Swan will change the way you approach trading and investments

and teach you lessons how to position yourself towards live changing events

which nobody can foresee. So for around US$13 online for the second edition

via Amazon, it's probably one of the best purchases you will make in your life,

even if you don't accept the underlying premise of Taleb's arguments you will

at least have found some very useful life tips. A four and a half star book for

us, the only criticism is the confusion the first few chapters might cause.

For more information about the copper industry and trading currencies, watch relevant

videos on our site.

http://www.invast.com.au/resources/video-centre.aspx












6.0 Disclaimer

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2013 Copper Price Key And Risk Management For Traders

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Transcript of 2013 Copper Price Key And Risk Management For Traders