2012 Winnipeg Real Estate Forum...Prairie CMAs – Rental Vacancy Rates Winnipeg among lowest in...
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2012 Winnipeg Real Estate Forum Winnipeg Multi-family Housing Market Outlook Dianne Himbeault, Senior Market Analyst Housing market intelligence you can count on
Transcript of 2012 Winnipeg Real Estate Forum...Prairie CMAs – Rental Vacancy Rates Winnipeg among lowest in...
2012 Winnipeg Real Estate Forum
Winnipeg Multi-family Housing Market Outlook
Dianne Himbeault, Senior Market Analyst
Housing market intelligence you can count on
Housing market intelligence you can count on
Winnipeg CMA - Unemployment RateRelatively low compared to Canada
7
8
9
W innipeg Canada
unemployment rate (%)
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
2
3
4
5
6
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Statistics Canada, seasonally adjusted
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8,000 8,1008,200
6,000
8,000
10,000
Winnipeg CMA – Net MigrationElevated levels supported by international migrants
persons
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f 2013f
Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC forecast (f)
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40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Winnipeg Age Profile – 2010Baby-boom bulge in move-up market
Renter 1st TimeBuyer
Move-upBuyer
Seniors’Housing
Live withparents
AdultLifestyle
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0-4
5-9
10
-14
15
-19
20
-24
25
-29
30
-34
35
-39
40
-44
45
-49
50
-54
55
-59
60
-64
65
-69
70
-74
75
-79
80
-84
85
-89
90
+
Source: Winnipeg Regional Health Authority, June 2010
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Winnipeg CMA Population GrowthRate of growth at levels not seen in over 20 years
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
year-over-year change
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: Statistics Canada
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
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Winnipeg – Total Housing StartsPace of construction will increase moderately
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)
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Total Starts Per CapitaWinnipeg lowest among cities with similar growth rates
starts per 1,000 population
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC
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Winnipeg – Multi-family StartsTo remain elevated this year and next
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)
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Winnipeg – Multi Starts by TypeRow units saw increased activity last year
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: CMHC
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W innipeg – Multi Starts by TenureRental starts continue to make up the majority
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: CMHC
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W innipeg – Multi-family InventoryComplete and unabsorbed units remain low
250
300
350
400
450
Semi
Row
Apartment
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: CMHC
0
50
100
150
200
250
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
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W innipeg – Apartment Vacancy RateWill remain below two per cent
October surveys
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)
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Prairie CMAs – Rental Vacancy RatesWinnipeg among lowest in Canada
apartment vacancy rate
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: CMHC, October 2011
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55,000
56,000
57,000
58,000
W innipeg – Rental Market UniverseNot growing despite additions
apartment universe (units)
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
50,000
51,000
52,000
53,000
54,000
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Source: CMHC, October Survey
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apartment units
W innipeg – Units Removed from UniverseCondominium conversions increased in last few years
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: CMHC, October Survey
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W innipeg - Vacancy Rate by Rent Range All categories were under three per cent
apartment vacancy rate
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: CMHC, October Survey
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Prairie CMAs - Rental StartsWinnipeg’s share of rental starts highest on prairies
20%
25%
30%
35%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
share of rental starts
apartment vacancy rate
rental starts as a percentage of total starts apartment vacancy rate
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Edmonton Calgary Saskatoon Regina W innipeg Canada all
CMAs
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
Source: CMHC, October 2011
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Prairie CMAs – Avg 2-bedroom RentWinnipeg below national average
average monthly apartment rent ($)
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: CMHC, October Survey
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W innipeg – Average Apartment RentSteady increases to continue
two-bedroom average rent (October)
4.5%
4.0%
4.4%
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)
Housing market intelligence you can count on
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
average two-bedroom apartment rent
average MLS® home carrying cost
W innipeg Cost of Owning vs. RentingDifferential has been increasing
monthly carrying cost*, rent
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
* assumption: 5% down payment, average 5-year fixed mortgage rates, amortized 25 years
Source: CREA, Bank of Canada, CMHC calculations
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Prairie CMAs – Condo Vacancy RatesVacancy rate higher in rented condominiums
vacancy rate
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: CMHC, 2011
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Prairie CMAs – Condo Average RentRents slightly higher in two-bedroom condominiums
average monthly rent ($)
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: CMHC, 2011
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Prairie CMAs – Rental Condos Winnipeg has smaller percentage of condominiums rented
percentage of condo apartments in rental vs. ownership
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIONCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: CMHC, 2011
Thank you !
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