2012 ITE Annual Conference

Allen Nie, PhD, PE, HMM

June 24 -27, Santa Barbara, CA

SR 46 Improvement PSR/PDS Study

Presentation Outline

Background

Improvement Alternatives

Traffic Modeling

Traffic Operations Analysis

Project Status

Lessons Learned

Project Location – Paso Robles

CambriaWasco

SR 46 E in Paso Robles

Past Studies

SR 46 E Comprehensive Traffic Survey, 2005

Golden Hill Retail Center TIA, 2007

State Route 46 E Parallel Routes Study, 2008

SR 46 E Comprehensive Corridor Study, 2009

Paso Robles General Plan Update, 2011

Existing Intersection & Mainline LOS

2025 Intersection & Mainline LOS

Delays

Source: Caltrans SR 46 E CCS

Paso Robles Land Use

Traffic Issues – Local Perspective

S

Improvements along SR 46

Location Improvement Status

US 101/SR 46 SB Ramps

Add WBL and EBT lanes In construction, to be completed in 2014

US 101 / SR 46 NB Ramps

Add WBT lanes To be completed by CT in the future

SR 46 / Golden Hill Rd Restriping, add left turn lanes on all approaches;

widen northbound approach to

Completed

SR 46 E / Airport Rd Widen SR 46 to 4 lanes from Airport Rd to

Shandon

Completed

SR 46 / Union Rd TBD by this study PSR

The PSR Project Team

Alignment Alternatives

ALT 1 –Two-way Stop-controlled (No Build)

ALT 2 – Signalization

ALT 3 – Roundabout (West)

ALT 4 – Roundabout (East)

ALT 5 – Overcrossing

ALT 6 – Interchange

ALT 4 – Roundabout (East)

ALT 6 – Interchange

Caltrans’ Responsibility

Maintain / Increase Hwy 46 throughput

Reduce travel delay• Traffic controls (signal)

• Congestion (queue spillovers, weaving issues, etc)

Improve travel time reliability

Multimodal and safety

Vision - grade separation, limited # of access points

City’s Expectation

Easy access to Highway 46 and US 101

Better & reliable connectivity

Support multimodal transportation (bike & Ped)

Fit into the City’s Circulation Master Plan

Cost concerns

Phased development

City’s Circulation Master Plan

Work Process

Kickoff Meeting

Traffic Modeling

Operational Analysis

Alternative Assessment

Project Management

and QA/QC

Traffic Data

Field Survey

Alternative Development

City of Paso Robles Traffic Model

City model based on the SLOCOG county model

Three-step highway model

Feedback loop

Detailed GIS roadway network

Horizon years modeled• 2008

• 2030

Traffic Model Enhancement

Post-processing

Model Enhancement

Study Area

City Area

The rest

Day of Week Fluctuation

Highway 46Vs.

Local Arterial

Traffic Model Calibration

Comparison Coefficient (slope) R^2 Intercept

Before CalibrationAM Peak 1.16 0.84 65

PM Peak 1.34 0.89 86

After CalibrationAM Peak 0.99 0.99 3

PM Peak 0.99 0.99 3

Comparison % (GEH <5)

Before CalibrationAM Peak 50%PM Peak 53%

After CalibrationAM Peak 100%PM Peak 100%

Before Model Calibration After Model Calibration

GEH Statistics

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

GEH<X 63.2% 79.4% 92.6% 98.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

% o

f Sam

ples

with

(GEH

<X)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

GEH<X 8.8% 27.9% 39.7% 44.1% 50.0% 58.8% 63.2% 72.1% 77.9% 85.3% 92.6% 95.6% 95.6% 97.1% 97.1% 98.5% 98.5% 100.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

% o

f Sam

ples

wit

h (G

EH<X

)

(Before)

(After)

Traffic Simulation Criteria:

85% (GEH < 5)

Seasonal Fluctuation

Ramifications of Traffic Fluctuation

Data Collection• Use of old counts – consistency issue

Model Calibration• which month?

• Previous studies failed to consider this

Traffic operations • Worst or average

Design• For the worst?

Traffic Operations Analysis

Intersections• Signalized

• Stop-controlled

Roundabout

Hwy 46 multilane highway

Hwy 46 Weaving

Simulation (optional)

Finalized Study Scenarios & Elements

No. Description AM PM Fri Sun AM PM Fri Sun1 No Build X X X X X X X X2 Signalization X X X X X X X X3 Roundabout West X X X X X X X X4 Roundabout East X X X X X X X X5 Overcrossing X X X X X X X X6 Interchange X X X X X X X X

Near Term (2016) Long Term (2035)Improvement Alternative

Element QuanitySignalized Intersection 2

Unsignalized Intersection 6Roundabout 2

Multilane 2Weaving 1

Preliminary Results: 2016 No Build

No. Name Type Approach AM PM Fri Sun AM PM Fri Sun1 SR 46 / Golden Hill Rd Signal 28.5 35.7 38.6 30.2 C D D C Synchro

Overall 30.0 24.9 77.0 8.1NB 176.4 146.1 479.5 65.1 F F F FSB 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 A A A A

Overall 710.0 24.6 55.0 2.7SB >710.0 106.8 242.1 35.7 F F F E

82.8 115.3 77.6 17.2 F F F C Traffi xSynchro

Overall 44.5 39.4 83.1 18.7NB 154.2 191.8 413.9 40.3 F F F E

Overall 5.5 8.3 7.4 5.7EB 9.5 9.5 9.2 9.4 A A A AWB 15.3 15.6 12.9 11.2 C C B B

Overall 2.7 11.2 14.1 4.8EB 9.0 10.5 10.7 9.3 A B B AWB 17.5 31.9 42.9 13.7 C D E B

2 SR 46 / Union Rd TWSC Synchro

3 SR 46 / Airport Rd OWSC Synchro

Intersection Control Delay (Seconds) LOSMethodology

Synchro

6 Dallons Dr / Golden Hill Rd TWSC Synchro

4 Union Rd / Golden Hill Rd AWSCSynchro does not support AWSC analysis for more than 2 lanes per leg intersection.

5 Union Rd / Union Rd Connector

OWSC

D B Synchro

8 Dry Creek Rd / Union Rd TWSC Synchro

20.3 36.8 15.5 B C7 Golden Hills Plaza Driveway / Golden Hill Rd

Signal 13.1

Segment Direction AM PM Friday Sunday AM PM Friday SundayEB 9.6 10.3 11.2 14.2 A A A BWB 10.3 12.9 13.9 9.5 A B B A

Union Road - Airport Road

Hwy 46 Weaving Density (pc/mi/ln) LOS

Performance Comparison

No. Description AM PM Fri Sun AM PM Fri Sun1 No Build D D D D E E E E2 Signalization C C D D D D E E3 Roundabout West C C C C D D D D4 Roundabout East C C C C D D D D5 Overcrossing B B C C C C D D6 Interchange B B B B C C C C

Improvement Alternative Near Term (2016) Long Term (2035)

To be updated!

Project Status

Data Collection - done

Alignment Alternative - 90%

Model Development & Calibration - Approved

Traffic Forecast – 85%

Traffic Operations Analysis – 25%

Overall project - Ahead of schedule

Challenges & Lessons Learned

Data Collection• Seasonal & day of week fluctuation

• Timing / consistency

• Always validate your data

Scenarios Management

Communication• Work closely with all stokeholds

Consensus Building• Use your traffic model

Thank you! Questions & Answers

Hatch Mott MacDonald

Allen Nie, PhD, PE Tel: 925.469.8016

allen.nie@hatchmott.com

Richard Davis, VPTel: 925.469.5356

richard.davis@hatchmott.com

4301 Hacienda Dr., Suite 300 Pleasanton, CA 94588

Fax: 925.469.8011 www.hatchmott.com

Stop right here

Stop right here

City Zoning

Project Development Process

Caltrans

Project Study Report

Initial document of the project

Include• Scoping of the physical work

• Budget and schedule to deliver the project

• Define the needs and purpose

Timeframe• 6 months to 12 months

Draft Project Report

A decision making document

Document the need for a project

Summarize• Key points from the Draft Env. Doc

• The studies of the scope, cost

• Overall impact of alternatives

Help make informal decision whether to proceed to the public hearing phase of the project

ALT 1 – Two-way Stop-controlled (No Build)

ALT 2 – Signalization

ALT 3 – Roundabout West

ALT 5 – Overcrossing

Future Year O-D Calculation

),0(. ODgrowthbasefuture forecastedODcalibratedMaxODAdj

basefutureODgrowth ODforecastedODForecastedForecasted

The Difference Method

Half Clover Leaf Interchange

Roundabout Alternative

Background

The Consideration of Recession

People are talking about it

Not enough data to fully measure the impact on traffic level in the project study area

Would be a decision from the City and Caltrans• To consider it at all?

• Which growth pattern to choose?

The Impact of Recession

12 3

45

LegendLine 1: w/o recession

Lines 2 - 5: w/ recession

Traffic Modeling Task

Forecast future year traffic• 2016, 2020, 2025, 2035

Forecast traffic under different alignment alternatives• Traffic assignment

Explore traffic circulation pattern to support traffic operations analysis• E.g. weaving analysis

Support alternative development

Model Validation

Supply side

• Link attributes

• Network coding

• Turn penalties

Demand side

• Land use consolidation (type, quantity)

• Zone disaggregation

• Trip rates review

Additional Model Improvement & Testing

Upgrade to TransCAD 5.0

Additional tools in GISDK for OD operations

Sensitivity testing in the project area

Through trip assessment (select link analysis)

Trip patterns (select link / zone analysis)