2012 Household Projections SPRU v5 - DLP Consultants...The 2012 SNHP were published today (27th...
Transcript of 2012 Household Projections SPRU v5 - DLP Consultants...The 2012 SNHP were published today (27th...
DLP BRIEFING NOTE ON THE 2012 BASED SUB NATIONAL HOUSEHOLD
PROJECTIONS
Prepared by DLP Planning Ltd
27 February 2015
THE 2012 BASED SUB NATIONAL HOUSEHOLD
PROJECTIONS
Disclaimer DLP Consulting Group Ltd, and its constituent companies disclaims any responsibility to the client and others in respect of matters outside the scope of this Report. This Report has been prepared with reasonable skill, care and diligence, is the property of DLP Consulting Group, and is confidential to the client, DLP Consulting Group Ltd accepts no responsibility of whatsoever nature to third parties, to whom this report has been provided.
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Summary
This Briefing Note from the Strategic Planning Research Unit (SPRU) of DLP Planning Ltd summarises the 2012 Sub National Household Projections (SNHP) for all districts in England. These projections will form the start point for the assessment of objectively assessed housing need (OAN) in supporting planning applications, appeals and promoting land in development plans.
It is important to note that while these projections will now form the start point of OAN they do not take into account:
• Measures to address the issue of affordability (increased access to home ownership and affordable housing);
• Known capacity issues in England’s major cites, which will increase demographic pressure for out migration into their hinterland(s)
• The requirements of the local economy in terms of integrating economic and housing strategies
In light of the above, for many local authorities these most recent projections will be lower than a policy compliant OAN.
Introduction
The 2012 SNHP were published today (27th February 2015).
The Planning Practice Guidance recognises that establishing the future need for housing is not an exact science, but that the household projections published by the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) should provide the start point for estimating overall housing need.
The projections are ‘trend-based’ and indicate the number of additional households that would form if demographic trends continue. They are informed by both population projections and projected household representative rates, and are driven by assumptions on future levels of fertility, mortality, migration, and household formation. The projections convert the 2012 Sub National Population Projections (SNPP) figures into household units.
It is important to remember that these are projections and not forecasts and as such it is important to consider their implications with regard to the following issues.
Issue 1 – Household Formation
SPRU have used the 2012 SNPP Projections as the basis for our assessment work. Assuming these remain unchanged, the difference between SPRU’s conclusions and the new projections will be the household formation rates themselves. Central to this will be the debate as to how the projections have balanced the differing trends in household formation (longer term with most recent), e.g. the trend towards forming households later in life or formation of non-traditional households (3 unrelated adults living together).
This will continue to be an ongoing debate with regard to the type of housing market the country seeks for the future, and this may well have implications for the design of new housing as well as overall levels of provision.
The projections do not predict the impact that future policies, changing economic circumstances, or other factors might have on household formation rates, or overall housing requirements. Indeed, there are real concerns that the recession and the decline in economic activity associated with that has suppressed household formation. The inability of people
wanting to form new households to secure mortgages has also artificially reduced household formation rates. The increasing cost of housing has accelerated issues of affordability, particular in those housing markets where prices have most dramatically increased. With this in mind, the household projection based estimate of housing need may require adjustment to reflect these factors.
This formed a basis for the recent High Court judgement which confirmed the finding of the Warrington Plan unsound (Satnam Millennium Limited and Warrington Borough Council EWHC307) demonstrates how the requirement for affordable housing should be included in Strategic Housing Market Assessments (SHMAs) as follows:
a) having identified the OAN for affordable housing, that should then be considered in the context of its likely delivery as a proportion of mixed market/affordable housing development; an increase in the total housing figures included in the local plan should be considered where it could help deliver the required number of affordable homes;
b) the Local Plan should then meet the OAN for affordable housing, subject only to the constraints referred to in the National Planning Policy Framework (the Framework), paragraphs 14 and 47.
Issue 2 – Migration
As stated above the 2012 SNPP have been available for modelling for some time. Assessment work undertaken by SPRU has shown that these projections are unlikely to reflect what will actually happen in the future. One of the main reasons for this is that many of the country’s major cities are unlikely to be able to accommodate the levels of household growth that is being attributed to them in these forecasts. This will result in increased pressure for migration out of these centres.
The result will be that the population projections underlying the new household projections are likely to underestimate the actual level of need in many locations as they will not reflect this increased future migration.
In response to this, SPRU have developed a methodology to model future needs in Housing Market Areas which are influenced by major urban areas with known levels of constraint.
Issue 3 - Economic Growth
Economic growth may have two impacts on the projections. First, increased income levels can increase household formation quicker than anticipated in the projections. Second, localised job growth can also influence housing demand. In response to this, it should be noted that Paragraph 158 of the Framework requires the integration of economic and housing strategies so this too can reflect future levels of housing need.
As with migration factors, SPRU has developed methodologies to model likely impacts of future job growth on the demand for housing within a location, and the new 2012 Household projections will be a new input into this analysis.
How to respond to these challenges in site promotion strategies
Assessment of housing requirements at the local level will most likely need to adjust the projections to reflect the consequences of past under delivery of housing. As these do not reflect unmet housing need, local planning authorities should take a view based on available evidence of the extent to which household formation rates are, or have been, constrained by supply. Changes made on local information need however, to be explained and justified on the basis of robust evidence.
The Framework (paragraph 158) also identifies that local plans must be based on up-to-date evidence about the economic, social and environmental characteristics and the prospects for the area, and as outlined above it is also important that strategies for housing, employment and other uses are integrated.
The release of the new information will provide a new basis for an objective evidence base for both plan making and development management processes.
The promotion of strategic housing sites under the Framework requires a sound evidence base in terms of both the OAN for housing and the supply of housing (five year land supply) as well as the economic impact of development.
DLP Planning Ltd – Strategic Planning and Research Unit
DLP Planning Ltd’s Strategic Planning and Research Unit (SPRU) are able to produce a range of projections to test various assumptions and scenarios for establishing future levels of housing provision. Reaching a conclusion over the OAN is only the first part of setting a housing requirement according to the Framework, and SPRU can also assist in assessing the following:
• modelling the impacts that different levels of house building may have on migration, population, labour force and commuting;
• Modelling housing need within housing market areas and identifying those neighbouring authorities who have a duty to co-operate in order to meet the wider housing needs (if these cannot be met within the boundaries of the single local authority); and
• Set out clearly the opportunities and risks associated with different levels of housing provision.
Whether supporting a proposed allocation, promoting an alternative allocation in an emerging development plan, or promoting a site though the development management process, it is essential that proposals are supported by a robust assessment of the level of housing need.
A comprehensive review of demographic and associated evidence provided by SPRU, to provide an OAN, is an essential piece of evidence. The output of this work also provides guidance on the appropriate level of housing provision for calculating the five year land supply.
SPRU has a proven track record of producing and presenting evidence on OAN and the economic benefits of housing development at both local plan Examinations and appeals and members of the SPRU have extensive experience of presenting their findings at Examinations and/or utilising the evidence base to argue for the appropriate level of housing within a district and the distribution of that housing.
Important Note
The summary of the projections over the next pages are households so an allowance will need to be made for properties that maybe vacant at the end of the plan period (i.e. for sale in probate etc.).
Summary of 2012 Sub National Household Projections
Area
2015 -
2020 avg
per
anum
2012 -
2037 avg
per
annum
County Durham
UA 1,475 1,212
Darlington UA 221 181
Hartlepool UA 238 178
Middlesbrough
UA 270 248
Northumberland
UA 743 580
Redcar and
Cleveland UA 187 101
Stockton-on-Tees
UA 649 528
Tyne and Wear
(Met County) 3,127 2,738
Gateshead 507 427
Newcastle upon
Tyne 807 770
North Tyneside 859 751
South Tyneside 409 343
Sunderland 546 448
Blackburn with
Darwen UA 283 247
Blackpool UA 140 166
Cheshire East UA 1,162 950
Cheshire West
and Chester UA 688 525
Halton UA 329 235
Warrington UA 978 826
Cumbria 844 607
Allerdale 150 99
Barrow-in-Furness 46 8
Carlisle 235 195
Copeland 92 51
Eden 127 99
South Lakeland 194 155
Greater
Manchester (Met
County) 10,123 9,179
Bolton 992 892
Bury 581 516
Manchester 2,273 2,123
Oldham 717 639
Area
2015 -
2020 avg
per
anum
2012 -
2037 avg
per
annum
Rochdale 461 419
Salford 1,328 1,214
Stockport 907 832
Tameside 844 768
Trafford 905 877
Wigan 1,113 900
Lancashire 2,993 2,537
Burnley 72 50
Chorley 521 430
Fylde 245 219
Hyndburn 103 79
Lancaster 319 305
Pendle 245 193
Preston 302 297
Ribble Valley 155 121
Rossendale 233 195
South Ribble 322 257
West Lancashire 191 140
Wyre 286 251
Merseyside (Met
County) 3,620 3,064
Knowsley 294 233
Liverpool 1,380 1,238
Sefton 645 533
St. Helens 574 450
Wirral 727 610
East Riding of
Yorkshire UA 1,085 902
Kingston upon
Hull, City of UA 618 538
North East
Lincolnshire UA 279 220
North Lincolnshire
UA 542 457
York UA 785 735
North Yorkshire 1,535 1,322
Craven 141 127
Hambleton 219 164
Harrogate 395 355
Richmondshire 77 58
Ryedale 129 116
Area
2015 -
2020 avg
per
anum
2012 -
2037 avg
per
annum
Scarborough 183 167
Selby 390 333
South Yorkshire
(Met County) 4,073 3,706
Barnsley 865 756
Doncaster 667 559
Rotherham 671 569
Sheffield 1,869 1,822
West Yorkshire
(Met County) 8,111 7,731
Bradford 1,845 1,793
Calderdale 867 784
Kirklees 1,512 1,394
Leeds 2,790 2,796
Wakefield 1,096 964
Derby UA 988 928
Leicester UA 1,187 1,160
Nottingham UA 936 1,053
Rutland UA 109 106
Derbyshire 2,650 2,258
Amber Valley 409 343
Bolsover 233 195
Chesterfield 237 193
Derbyshire Dales 237 209
Erewash 409 363
High Peak 314 262
North East
Derbyshire 268 217
South Derbyshire 542 475
Leicestershire 2,345 2,154
Blaby 281 238
Charnwood 780 752
Harborough 414 361
Hinckley and
Bosworth 375 331
Melton 184 159
North West
Leicestershire 273 248
Oadby and
Wigston 39 65
Lincolnshire 2,772 2,531
Area
2015 -
2020 avg
per
anum
2012 -
2037 avg
per
annum
Boston 301 268
East Lindsey 414 399
Lincoln 230 243
North Kesteven 466 398
South Holland 441 416
South Kesteven 597 527
West Lindsey 324 280
Northamptonshire 3,256 3,047
Corby 391 373
Daventry 303 267
East
Northamptonshire 315 310
Kettering 470 431
Northampton 1,164 1,081
South
Northamptonshire 323 304
Wellingborough 291 280
Nottinghamshire 2,753 2,406
Ashfield 462 386
Bassetlaw 369 299
Broxtowe 375 345
Gedling 378 352
Mansfield 277 242
Newark and
Sherwood 432 364
Rushcliffe 459 418
Herefordshire,
County of UA 742 632
Shropshire UA 1,075 887
Stoke-on-Trent
UA 471 434
Telford and
Wrekin UA 495 404
Staffordshire 2,497 2,091
Cannock Chase 313 255
East Staffordshire 479 435
Lichfield 357 299
Newcastle-under-
Lyme 257 232
South
Staffordshire 241 180
Area
2015 -
2020 avg
per
anum
2012 -
2037 avg
per
annum
Stafford 424 349
Staffordshire
Moorlands 193 152
Tamworth 234 189
Warwickshire 2,231 2,042
North
Warwickshire 163 153
Nuneaton and
Bedworth 472 426
Rugby 491 455
Stratford-on-Avon 499 437
Warwick 606 571
West Midlands
(Met County) 10,094 9,958
Birmingham 4,280 4,279
Coventry 1,895 1,835
Dudley 629 601
Sandwell 1,340 1,317
Solihull 599 611
Walsall 807 762
Wolverhampton 544 552
Worcestershire 1,611 1,427
Bromsgrove 280 277
Malvern Hills 212 208
Redditch 222 181
Worcester 390 320
Wychavon 313 281
Wyre Forest 195 160
Bedford UA 909 869
Central
Bedfordshire UA 1,674 1,512
Luton UA 1,148 1,074
Peterborough UA 991 890
Southend-on-Sea
UA 826 796
Thurrock UA 813 800
Cambridgeshire 3,018 2,766
Cambridge 268 319
East
Cambridgeshire 604 547
Fenland 468 439
Area
2015 -
2020 avg
per
anum
2012 -
2037 avg
per
annum
Huntingdonshire 759 654
South
Cambridgeshire 918 807
Essex 6,137 5,974
Basildon 671 645
Braintree 731 668
Brentwood 301 310
Castle Point 282 273
Chelmsford 699 641
Colchester 912 833
Epping Forest 634 672
Harlow 324 340
Maldon 233 214
Rochford 263 255
Tendring 567 642
Uttlesford 519 482
Hertfordshire 5,805 5,712
Broxbourne 365 387
Dacorum 718 695
East Hertfordshire 832 768
Hertsmere 569 575
North
Hertfordshire 717 688
St Albans 674 648
Stevenage 386 380
Three Rivers 466 476
Watford 552 533
Welwyn Hatfield 525 561
Norfolk 3,604 3,317
Breckland 578 522
Broadland 428 394
Great Yarmouth 392 362
King’s Lynn and
West Norfolk 498 474
North Norfolk 385 367
Norwich 584 540
South Norfolk 739 658
Suffolk 2,780 2,584
Babergh 288 262
Forest Heath 337 314
Area
2015 -
2020 avg
per
anum
2012 -
2037 avg
per
annum
Ipswich 569 517
Mid Suffolk 433 384
St Edmundsbury 369 349
Suffolk Coastal 471 448
Waveney 313 310
Inner London 23,222 21,211
Camden 1,443 1,292
City of London 105 90
Hackney 1,952 1,796
Hammersmith and
Fulham 420 452
Haringey 2,184 1,952
Islington 1,957 1,710
Kensington and
Chelsea 139 247
Lambeth 2,008 1,838
Lewisham 2,194 2,100
Newham 2,680 2,244
Southwark 2,275 2,072
Tower Hamlets 3,055 2,740
Wandsworth 1,439 1,417
Westminster 1,371 1,262
Outer London 33,200 31,895
Barking and
Dagenham 1,549 1,507
Barnet 3,026 2,843
Bexley 1,047 1,088
Brent 1,723 1,556
Bromley 1,635 1,738
Croydon 2,401 2,327
Ealing 2,134 1,961
Enfield 2,395 2,310
Greenwich 1,759 1,635
Harrow 1,514 1,417
Havering 1,197 1,306
Hillingdon 1,799 1,783
Hounslow 2,152 1,897
Kingston upon
Thames 1,085 1,053
Merton 1,374 1,270
Area
2015 -
2020 avg
per
anum
2012 -
2037 avg
per
annum
Redbridge 2,232 2,114
Richmond upon
Thames 1,106 1,089
Sutton 1,379 1,345
Waltham Forest 1,695 1,656
Bracknell Forest
UA 595 519
Brighton and
Hove UA 1,314 1,248
Isle of Wight UA 531 515
Medway UA 1,400 1,270
Milton Keynes UA 1,621 1,468
Portsmouth UA 802 775
Reading UA 472 487
Slough UA 949 866
Southampton UA 803 836
West Berkshire
UA 559 510
Windsor and
Maidenhead UA 645 626
Wokingham UA 757 660
Buckinghamshire 2,128 2,000
Aylesbury Vale 1,000 895
Chiltern 200 226
South Bucks 320 322
Wycombe 609 557
East Sussex 2,404 2,461
Eastbourne 444 473
Hastings 372 373
Lewes 509 523
Rother 428 459
Wealden 651 633
Hampshire 5,101 4,752
Basingstoke and
Deane 987 852
East Hampshire 450 417
Eastleigh 573 507
Fareham 435 398
Gosport 281 271
Hart 246 234
Havant 352 355
Area
2015 -
2020 avg
per
anum
2012 -
2037 avg
per
annum
New Forest 690 693
Rushmoor 303 271
Test Valley 315 297
Winchester 471 456
Kent 7,437 7,115
Ashford 715 650
Canterbury 562 606
Dartford 595 568
Dover 391 365
Gravesham 464 445
Maidstone 925 837
Sevenoaks 487 482
Shepway 481 475
Swale 863 800
Thanet 693 695
Tonbridge and
Malling 637 603
Tunbridge Wells 624 589
Oxfordshire 2,183 2,109
Cherwell 582 528
Oxford 340 392
South Oxfordshire 411 398
Vale of White
Horse 408 377
West Oxfordshire 442 413
Surrey 4,898 4,837
Elmbridge 375 409
Epsom and Ewell 378 375
Guildford 542 499
Mole Valley 348 350
Reigate and
Banstead 917 869
Runnymede 408 399
Spelthorne 477 492
Surrey Heath 243 232
Tandridge 414 422
Waverley 464 455
Woking 333 335
West Sussex 4,035 4,003
Adur 263 284
Area
2015 -
2020 avg
per
anum
2012 -
2037 avg
per
annum
Arun 750 779
Chichester 531 537
Crawley 592 575
Horsham 638 590
Mid Sussex 660 636
Worthing 600 601
Bath and North
East Somerset UA 441 454
Bournemouth UA 903 909
Bristol, City of UA 2,028 1,895
Cornwall UA 2,381 2,164
Isles of Scilly UA -9 -8
North Somerset
UA 1,115 1,032
Plymouth UA 514 490
Poole UA 641 632
South
Gloucestershire
UA 1,139 1,029
Swindon UA 1,297 1,190
Torbay UA 432 410
Wiltshire UA 1,811 1,634
Devon 2,836 2,678
East Devon 530 537
Exeter 395 384
Mid Devon 310 286
North Devon 274 266
South Hams 200 183
Teignbridge 477 442
Torridge 352 317
West Devon 298 264
Dorset 1,232 1,261
Christchurch 195 210
East Dorset 259 277
North Dorset 179 177
Purbeck 96 102
West Dorset 355 347
Weymouth and
Portland 148 147
Gloucestershire 2,522 2,330
Area
2015 -
2020 avg
per
anum
2012 -
2037 avg
per
annum
Cheltenham 496 464
Cotswold 269 265
Forest of Dean 269 234
Gloucester 619 568
Stroud 457 428
Tewkesbury 412 372
Somerset 2,144 1,953
Mendip 429 391
Sedgemoor 527 486
South Somerset 610 540
Taunton Deane 498 449
West Somerset 81 87
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