2012 Election Overview

2012 Election Overview

The National Association of Business Political Action Committees

2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE

The National Association of Business Political Action Committees

2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE

PRESENTED BY:Hans Kaiser

November 16, 2012

2012 Election Overview

State by State Voting

2

= Obama

= RomneyElectoral Votes

2008Obama 365McCain 173

2012Obama

332Romney

206

2012

Popular Vote

2008Obama 69,456,897 (+ 9.5 million)McCain 59,934,814

2012Obama 62,615,406 (+ 3.5 million)Romney 59,142,004 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION

COMMITTEES

Our 2010 NABPAC Presentation

• New 2012 Republican Total (179 electoral votes)• Florida (29 electoral votes)• Ohio (18 electoral votes)• North Carolina (15 electoral votes)• Virginia (13 electoral votes)• Indiana (11 electoral votes)

GOP nominee sits at:

3

265 Electoral Votes

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

New 2012 Republican Total (179 electoral votes)

Romney Net• Florida (29 electoral votes) - 0.9• Ohio (18 electoral votes) -1.9• North Carolina (15 electoral votes) +2.2• Virginia (13 electoral votes) -3.0• Indiana (11 electoral votes) +10.5

GOP nominee sits at:

4205 Electoral Votes

What Happened


Swing States:Real Clear Politics – Polling Averages vs. Actual Results

RCP average Actual result

Net Obama over RCP average

CO Obama +1.5 Obama +4.7 +3.2

FL Romney +1.5 Obama +0.9 +2.4

IA Obama +2.4 Obama +5.6 +3.2

MN Obama +5.2 Obama +7.7 +2.5

MI Obama +4.0 Obama +9.5 +5.5

NC Romney +3.0 Romney +2.2 +0.8

NV Obama +2.8 Obama +6.6 +3.8

NH Obama +2.0 Obama +5.8 +3.8

OH Obama +2.9 Obama +1.9 -1.0

PA Obama +3.8 Obama +5.2 +1.4

VA Obama +0.3 Obama +3.0 +2.7

WI Obama +4.2 Obama +6.7 +2.5

Obama average over performance +2.6 5 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

In each swing state the average Obama bump of 2.6% went toward Romney; Romney would have

won:

Colorado

Florida

Iowa

New Hampshire

Virginia

61 Electoral Votes

6

Total 267 Electoral Votes

What If … ?


Each state swung toward Romney by the average Obama bump in that particular state, Romney

would have won those states:

Colorado 9

Florida 29

Iowa 6

Michigan 16

Nevada 6

New Hampshire 4

Virginia 13

83 Electoral Votes7

Total 289 Electoral Votes

And What If … ?


Presidential Vote by Party ID

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

6%

45%

92%93%

50%

7%

Obama

Romney

8

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

9%

52%

89%90%

44%

10%

Obama

McCain

2012 2008

Network News Exit Polls


Presidential Vote by Ethnicity

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

39%

93%

71% 73%

58%59%

6%

27% 26%

38%

Obama

Romney

-20

9

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

43%

95%

67%62%

66%

55%

4%

31%35%

31%

Obama

McCain

2012 2008


+8

+4

-8

+15


Presidential Vote by Gender/White

White men (34%)

White women (38%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

35%42%

62%56%

Obama

Romney

10

White men (36%)

White women (39%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

41%46%

57%53%

Obama

McCain

2012 2008


+11 +7


Presidential Vote by Gender/Black

Black men (5%)

Black women (8%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

87%

96%

11%

3%

Obama

Romney

11

Black men (5%)

Black women (7%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% 95% 96%

5% 3%

Obama

McCain

2012 2008


+14 +0


Presidential Vote by Gender/Latino

Latino men (5%)

Latino women (6%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

65%

76%

33%

23%

Obama

Romney-1 -15

12

Latino men (4%)

Latino women (5%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

64%68%

33%30%

Obama

McCain

2012 2008



Presidential Vote by Area of Residence

City (32%)

Suburbs (47%)

Rural (21%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

62%

48%

39%36%

50%

59%

Obama

Romney

+12

13

City (30%)

Suburbs (49%)

Rural (21%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

63%

50%45%

35%

48%53%

Obama

McCain

2012 2008


+2

+4


Presidential Voting by 2011 Total Family Income

Under $30,000 (20%)

$30,000- $49,999

(21%)

$50,000- $99,000

(31%)

$100,000- $199,999

(21%)

$200,000- $249,999

(3%)

$250,000 or more

(4%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

63%57%

46% 44%47%

42%35%

42%

52% 54% 52%55%

Obama

Romney

14Network News Exit Polls


$50K was the Dividing Line

Under $50,000 $50,000 or more

Obama Romney Obama Romney

NATIONAL 60% 38% 45% 53%

CO 59% 39% 49% 49%

FL 59% 40% 43% 55%

IA 59% 38% 48% 50%

MI 62% 36% 48% 51%

NC 55% 44% 45% 55%

NH 60% 38% 49% 49%

NV 67% 30% 42% 56%

OH 59% 39% 44% 55%

PA 67% 31% 43% 56%

VA 61% 37% 47% 52%

WI 62% 37% 45% 54%

15

2011 Total Family Income



Most Important Issue

Which one of these four issues is the most important facing the country? Obama Romney

Net Obama

Economy (59%) 47% 51% -4%

Health care (18%) 75% 24% +51%

Federal budget deficit (15%) 32% 66% -34%

Foreign policy (5%) 56% 33% +23%


• Obama won health care and foreign policy voters.• Romney won deficit voters.• Economy voters were divided. Romney needed to win these voters to win the election.


Condition of Economy

Excellent (2%)

Good (21%)

Not so good (45%)

Poor (31%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%90%

55%

12%9%

42%

85%

Obama

Romney

NA NA

17

Do you think the condition of the nation’s economy is:



Family Financial Situation

Better today (25%)

Worse today (33%)

About the same (41%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

84%

18%

58%

15%

80%

40%

Obama

Romney

18

Compared to four years ago, is your family’s financial situation:



Blame for Economy? It’s Bush’s Fault

Na-tional

CO FL IA MI NC NH NV OH PA VA WI0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

38% 36%

42%37%

34%

40% 38% 38% 40%43% 41%

53% 51% 51% 53%57%

49%

57%52% 51% 52% 54%

Barack Obama

NA

19

Who is more to blame for current economic problems, Barack Obama or George W. Bush?



Biggest Economic Problem

The housing market (8%)

Unemployment (38%)

Taxes (14%)

Rising prices (37%)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

63%

54%

32%

49%

32%

44%

66%

49%

Romney

Obama


Which ONE of these four is the biggest economic problem facing people like you?


Candidate Qualities

Shares my values (27%)

Is a strong leader (18%)

Cares about people like me (21%)

Has a vision for the future (29%)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

42%

38%

81%

45%

55%

61%

18%

54%

Romney

Obama


Which ONE of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted for President?


Obama Cares about People

Na-tional (21%)

CO (16%)

FL (19%)

IA (24%)

MI (23%)

NC (20%)

NH (21%)

NV (18%)

OH (22%)

PA (20%)

VA (22%)

WI (24%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

81%

90%

83% 84% 82%77%

83%

90%

83% 82% 82%86%

18%

7%

15% 14%17%

22%16%

9%15% 17% 17%

12%

Obama Romney

22

Which ONE of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted for President?

-Shares my values -Is a strong leader -Cares about people like me -Has a vision for the future



Obama is More in Touch

Na-tional

CO FL IA MI NC NH NV OH PA VA WI0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

53% 51% 49%

55% 55%

49%

55%51% 50%

56%52% 52%

43% 42%46%

41% 39%

47%

42%44% 46%

41%45% 45%

Obama

Romney

23

Who is more in touch with people like you?



Candidate Policies

The rich The middle class The poor0%

20%

40%

60%

10%

44%

31%

53%

34%

2%

Obama's policiesRomney's policies

24


Do Barack Obama’s/Mitt Romney’s policies generally favor:


Vote for President

I strongly favor my candidate (65%)

I like my candidate but with reservations (23%)

I dislike the other candidate (10%)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

54%

42%

41%

45%

57%

51%

Romney

Obama


Which best describes your vote for president today?


What’s Ahead?

26 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES

What’s Ahead?

2008 2010 2012 2014

Republicans 32% 36% 32% ?

Independents

29% 28% 29% ?

Democrats 39% 36% 38% ?

27

Party ID

2008 2010 2012 2014

Liberals 22% 20% 25% ?

Moderates 44% 39% 41% ?

Conservatives

34% 41% 35% ?

Philosophy



Income Taxes

Increase for all (13%)

Increase only on income over $250,000 (47%)

Not increase for anyone (35%)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

52%

70%

23%

44%

29%

75%

Romney

Obama


Should income tax rates:


Taxes and the Deficit

Yes (33%)

No (63%)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

73%

37%

24%

61%

Romney

Obama


Should taxes be raised to help cut the budget deficit?


Illegal Immigrants

Offered a chance to apply for legal status (65%)

Deported to the country they came from (28%)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

61%

24%

37%

73%

Romney

Obama


Should most illegal immigrants working in the United State be:


Shift in Make-Up of Electorate’s White Voters in Key States

% White Voters

CO FL OH NV

2008 81% 71% 83% 69%

2012 78% 67% 79% 64%

Shift -3% -4% -4% -5%



Same-Sex Marriage

Yes (49%)

No (46%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

73%

25%25%

74%

Obama

Romney

32

Should your state legally recognize same-sex marriage?



GOP Vote2008 2010 2012 2014

Independents

-8 +18 +5 ?

65+ +8 +21 +12 ?

Catholics -9 +10 -2 ?

Rural +8 +28 +20 ?

White +12 +23 +20 ?

Men -1 +14 +7 ?

Suburban -2 +13 +2 ?

Women -13 +1 -11 ?



Contact Information

Moore Information2130 SW Jefferson Street

Suite 200 Portland, OR 97201

428 4th StreetSuite 8Annapolis, MD 21403

503.221.3100 410.216.9856

www.moore-info.com

Bob Moore, [email protected]

Hans Kaiser, [email protected]

www.facebook.com/mooreinformation


http://www.facebook.com/mooreinformation

2012 Election Overview

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