2012 10-24 come with a pencil..
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Transcript of 2012 10-24 come with a pencil..
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Come with a pencil...Daniel Tenner(@swombat)
http://swombat.comhttp://granttree.co.uk
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Come with a pencil...Daniel Tenner(@swombat)
http://swombat.comhttp://granttree.co.uk
#penc
ilStar
tup #idub12
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Overview
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0. Starting thoughts
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1. Business Model Canvas
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2. Coming up with your idea
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3. Lean Startup, or where to go from here
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4. Recap and closing thoughts
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0. Starting thoughts
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• Entrepreneurship is a career
•
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• Entrepreneurship is a career
• Startups are (risky) experiments
•
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• Entrepreneurship is a career
• Startups are (risky) experiments
• You don’t have to experiment full-time
•
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• Entrepreneurship is a career
• Startups are (risky) experiments
• You don’t have to experiment full-time
• Ideas are only a small part of it
•
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• Entrepreneurship is a career
• Startups are (risky) experiments
• You don’t have to experiment full-time
• Ideas are only a small part of it
• Running your own business is great
•
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• Entrepreneurship is a career
• Startups are (risky) experiments
• You don’t have to experiment full-time
• Ideas are only a small part of it
• Running your own business is great
• Start today with what you have
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Disclaimer
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Disclaimer
• No silver bullets
• No substitute for experience
• Just one tool
• Not the whole tool
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Disclaimer
• No silver bullets
• No substitute for experience
• Just one tool
• Not the whole tool
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Disclaimer
• No silver bullets
• No substitute for experience
• Just a couple of tools
• Not the whole tool
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Disclaimer
• No silver bullets
• No substitute for experience
• Just a couple of tools
• Not the whole tool
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1. Business Model Canvas
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“Send me your business plan”
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Problems with B-plans• Hard to see if complete
• Discourages collaboration
• Not for visual people
• Lengthy and tedious to prepare
• Lengthy to absorb
• Can hide issues under mountains of words
• Most people won’t read any of it!
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Problems with B-plans• Hard to see if complete
• Discourages collaboration or change, static
• Not for visual people
• Lengthy and tedious to prepare
• Lengthy to absorb
• Can hide issues under mountains of words
• Most people won’t read any of it!
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Problems with B-plans• Hard to see if complete
• Discourages collaboration or change, static
• Not for visual people
• Lengthy and tedious to prepare
• Lengthy to absorb
• Can hide issues under mountains of words
• Most people won’t read any of it!
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Problems with B-plans• Hard to see if complete
• Discourages collaboration or change, static
• Not for visual people
• Lengthy and tedious to prepare or absorb
• Lengthy to absorb
• Can hide issues under mountains of words
• Most people won’t read any of it!
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Problems with B-plans• Hard to see if complete
• Discourages collaboration or change, static
• Not for visual people
• Lengthy and tedious to prepare or absorb
• Can hide issues under mountains of words
• on’t read any of it!
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Problems with B-plans• Hard to see if complete
• Discourages collaboration or change, static
• Not for visual people
• Lengthy and tedious to prepare or absorb
• Can hide issues under mountains of words
• Most people won’t read any of it!
• on’t read any of it!
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Problems with B-plans• Hard to see if complete
• Discourages collaboration or change, static
• Not for visual people
• Lengthy and tedious to prepare or absorb
• Can hide issues under mountains of words
• Most people won’t read any of it!
• Present just one vision
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But business plans serve a purpose...
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“Plans are worthless, but planning is everything.”
- A great many people(incl. Dwight D. Eisenhower)
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Business planning has evolved
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Better business planning:
• Easy to see what’s missing
• Dynamic, open to suggestions and changes
• Visual
• Quick to prepare, change and grasp
• Issues come up to the surface
• People actually want to read it!
• Present multiple possibilities
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Is that possible?
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Hero Rats...
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Hero Rats...
• Genetically modified super-rats with brain chips.
• At the press of a button, the Hero Rat will seek out nearby explosives (e.g. in a land mine). Press another button and the Hero Rat returns (if still alive...).
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Hero Rats...
• Due to a revolutionary process called “Rat Magic”, the rats are inexpensive to breed and fit out with brain chips.
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Hero Rat Exercise 1
• Come up with as many different possible customer types as possible.
• Time: 4 minutes.
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Hero Rat Exercise 2
• What makes Hero Rats valuable?
• Time: 3.5 minutes.
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Hero Rat Exercise 3
• How can you sell Hero Rats?
• Time: 3 minutes.
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Hero Rat Exercise 4
• You get the idea...
• Time: 2.5 minutes.
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Hero Rat Exercise 5
• Sell the Hero Rats!
• Time: 2 minutes.
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Let’s have some funwith the rats...
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There are many ways to run Hero Rat Inc...
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Free rats for all?
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Hero Rat Exercise 6
• How can you give away the Hero Rats for free?
• Time: 3 minutes.
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Hero Rats for the mass market
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Hero Rat Exercise 7
• Can you sell Hero Rats as a consumer product?
• Time: 3 minutes.
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HRaaS?
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Hero Rat Exercise 8 (last!)
• Can you make Hero Rats a subscription service?
• Time: 3 minutes.
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Recap
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Business Plans in 2012• Easy to see what’s missing
• Dynamic, open to suggestions and changes
• Visual
• Quick to prepare, change and grasp
• Issues come up to the surface
• Present multiple possibilities
• People actually want to read it!
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2. Coming up with your idea
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2. Coming up with your ideas
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Idea Reach
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Constraints
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1. Start with you...
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effectuation.org
Expert entrepreneurs start with what they have and who they are.
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Who do you care about helping?
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Exercise 1
• Using yellow post-its, pin down things you really want to have on your business model.
• Time: 3 minutes.
• Note: don’t put things you don’t care about!
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2. Then, the not-you
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What do you hate doing?
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What is ridiculously hard for you?
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Exercise 2
• Using red post-its, pin down things you don’t want on your business model.
• Time: 2 minutes.
• Note: don’t put things you don’t care about!
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3. Your assets
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What communities/markets do you have
access to?
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What resources do you have access to which
others don’t?
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Exercise 3
• Using green post-its, pin down assets and resources.
• Time: 3 minutes.
• Note: put anything that could help.
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Groups of 3-5!
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Exercise 4
• Help each other: come up each with a customer, resource and activity.
• Time: 5 minutes.
• Note: more options is better!
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4. Get some help!
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Who else cares about your customers?
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Exercise 5
• Add other potential players around your canvas (partners or customers).
• Time: 3 minutes.
• Note: more options is better!
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Remember: your first idea is always dumb.
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Exercise 6
• Sketch out 3 alternative business models that fit your constraints.
• Time: 3 minutes.
• Note: more options is better!
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...but what next?
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3. Lean Startup, or where to go from here
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“Lean Startup”
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What is a startup?
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What is a startup?
“The act or fact of starting something; a setting in motion.”
-Dictionary (useless)
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What is a startup?
“Startups are fresh, new companies trying to do cool stuff.”
-Instinctive (still mostly useless)
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What is a startup?
“A startup is an organization formed to search for a repeatable and scalable business model.”
-Steve Blank
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What is a startup?
“A startup is a human institution designed to deliver a new product or service under conditions of extreme uncertainty.”
-Eric Ries
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What is a startup?
“...essentially a startup is a new business designed for scale.”“A startup is a small company that takes on a hard technical problem.”
-Paul Graham
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What is a startup?
“A startup is a business which has ambitions and plans to grow by a large factor over the next few years.”
-Me!
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Key points
• Uncertainty, search, difficulty
• Ambition, growth
• Methods, plans
• Business, money
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How should I build a startup?
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Some typical approaches that don’t
work
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1. First, write a business plan...
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2. Raise lots of money and then figure it out
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3. Plan it, build it and they will come
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4. Get lots of users and figure the rest out later
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5. Don’t spend anything at all.
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A better method... “Lean”
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Lean is not...
• Cheap
• Rigid
• Limited to simple ideas
• The magic key to success
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Lean is...
• A method to organise the chaos
• Less waste
• Less risk
• More learning
• A common language
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The fundamental principle of “Lean”
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• People don’t care about things they don’t need/want
• Building things people don’t need is waste
• Building large things that people don’t need is large waste
• You have no idea what you’re doing
• You have no idea what to build
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• People don’t care about things they don’t need/want
• Building things people don’t need is waste
• Building large things that people don’t need is large waste
• You have no idea what you’re doing
• You have no idea what to build
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• People don’t care about things they don’t need/want
• Building things people don’t need is waste
• Building large things that people don’t need is large waste
• You have no idea what you’re doing
• You have no idea what to build
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• People don’t care about things they don’t need/want
• Building things people don’t need is waste
• Building large things that people don’t need is large waste
• You have no idea what you’re doing
• You have no idea what to build
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• People don’t care about things they don’t need/want
• Building things people don’t need is waste
• Building large things that people don’t need is large waste
• You have no idea what you’re doing
• You have no idea what to build
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Sounds hard!
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➡Building things is probably a waste of your time right now.
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➡Building things is probably a waste of your time right now.
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The “Lean” approach:
Build the smallest, easiest, smartest thing that teaches you what you need to learn
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➡Building this thing is probably a waste of your time right now.
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➡Building this thing is maybe a waste of your time right now.
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➡Building this thing is maybe not a waste of your time right now.
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➡Building this thing is probably not a waste of your time right now.
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The “Lean” approach:
Build the smallest, easiest, smartest thing that teaches you what you need to learn
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What do you need to learn?
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Do people want it?
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Can I sell it?
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Can I build it?
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A startup plan
1. Do people want it?
2. Can I sell it?
3. Can I build it?
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The “Lean” approach:
Build the smallest, easiest, smartest thing that teaches you what you need to learn
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Minimum Viable Product
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Minimum Viable Product
• Landing page
• Paper prototype
• Presentation/pitch
• Anything that enables you to learn!
•
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Minimum Viable Product
• Landing page
• Paper prototype
• Presentation/pitch
• Anything that enables you to learn!
•
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Minimum Viable Product
• Landing page
• Paper prototype
• Presentation/pitch
• Anything that enables you to learn!
•
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Minimum Viable Product
• Landing page
• Paper prototype
• Presentation/pitch
• (Fake) demo video
• “Concierge MVP”
• Anything that enables you to learn!
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Minimum Viable Product
• Landing page
• Paper prototype
• Presentation/pitch
• (Fake) demo video
• “Concierge MVP”
• Anything that enables you to learn!
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Minimum Viable Product
• Landing page
• Paper prototype
• Presentation/pitch
• (Fake) demo video
• “Concierge MVP”
• Anything that enables you to learn!
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MVP
• MVP is not a crappy version of the product.
• MVP is driven by the questions you need answered.
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The Lean Cycle
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The Lean Cycle (backwards)
Metric
Hypothesis Experiment
Text
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Lean Toolkit
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Metrics
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Up and to the right...
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Vanity metrics
• User signups
• Traffic
• Retention rate
• Any metric in a vacuum
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Good metrics
• Mostly: A/B test results
• Cohort breakdowns
• Retention rates over time
• Activity stream
• Any metric that’s actionable
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Actionable?
• Must be related to the key engines of your business...
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Engines:value and growth
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Engine of value
• How much value is your startup delivering?
• Is it enough to be worth paying for?
• Do people perceive that and agree?
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Engine of growth
• How does your startup acquire new customers?
• Paid
• Viral
• Sticky
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Engine of growth
• How does your startup acquire new customers?
• Paid (CAC & LTV)
• Viral (Viral Coefficient)
• Sticky (Retention rate)
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Actionable Metrics
• Actionable metrics are the ones which can lead to a change which you know will impact your key drivers.
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“If you simply plan on seeing what happens, you always succeed... in
seeing what happens!”- Eric Ries
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“If you can’t fail, then you can’t learn.”
- Eric Ries
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“Innovation Accounting”
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Lean reporting
• If you only report usage/revenue, that’s what you’ll be judged on
• Track validated learning instead
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Pivots(hot buzzword alert)
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Experiment failed... what now?
• Why did it fail? Which assumption was wrong?
• Can the assumption be tweaked, or does it need to be thrown out?
• How can we rework the business model now we know that we know this?
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Experiments succeeded, but...
• If it’s not working well enough to build a sustainable business, it’s not working, period.
(diminishing returns...)
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How to know if it’s working well enough?
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Types of pivots
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• Zoom-in pivot: single feature becomes the whole product
• Zoom-out pivot: the product becomes a feature of a larger product
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• Customer segment pivot: some customers like us, but not the ones initially targeted
• Customer need pivot: the product doesn’t solve a big enough problem for our customers
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• Business architecture pivot: low margin, high volume, vs. high margin, low volume
• Value capture pivot: change the way you monetise
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But... don’t abuse pivots.
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4. Recap and closing thoughts
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Let’s recap...
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EVERYTHING!
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Startups are experiments
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Test critical things as quickly as possible
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Work back from what you want to test...
Metric
Hypothesis Experiment
Text
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Actionable metrics, not vanity metrics
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Report on learning progress
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Pivot when assumptions are wrong
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What to do from here
• Be Smart
• Get Advice
• DO THINGS!
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Where to go from here...
• “The Lean Startup” - Eric Ries
• “Running Lean” - Ash Maurya
• “The entrepreneur’s guide to customer development” - Brant Cooper & Patrick Vlaskovits
• Numerous blogs online...
• Mentors...
• EXPERIENCE!
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Thank you!Daniel Tenner(@swombat)
http://swombat.comhttp://granttree.co.uk