2011 TMT Predictions - FEI Canada Chapter/2011... · TMT, tax, audit, risk, corporate finance and...

© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

2011 TMT Predictions.

October 2011


Deloitte’s TMT predictions was released in 60 countries and

launched in 60+ cities in 2011.

Predictions was first published in 2001.

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Predictions Methodology 7,000 specialists in

TMT, tax, audit, risk,

corporate finance

and consulting

Deloitte TMT

Research

Projects /

discussions with

industry bodies

Macroeconomic

research

Discussions with

clients around the

world

Reports and

discussions with key

experts at industry

analysts and

financial institutions

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2010 TMT Predictions Report Card

March 2011

Duncan Stewart

Director

Deloitte Canada Research


2010 Predictions report card

Technology

Smaller than a netbook and bigger than a smartphone – net tablets arrive

Moore’s Law is alive and well in 2010

Cloud computing: more than hype but less than hyper

Thinking thin is in again: virtual desktop infrastructures challenge the PC

IT procurement stands on its head

CleanTech makes a comeback. But solar stays in the shadows

From gray to green: technology reinvents cement

Came true, but less than

we predicted. At least so far

Didn’t come true

as we predicted

Legend

Came true exactly as

much as we predicted

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Smaller than a netbook, and bigger than a smartphone –

Net tablets arrive

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Media

Linear's got legs: the television and radio schedule stays supreme

The shift to online advertising: more selective, but the trend continues

eReaders fill a niche, but eBooks fly off the (virtual) shelves

Publishing fights back: paywalls and micropayments

TV and the web belong together, but not necessarily on the same screen

Music as a service rises up the charts

Video on demand takes off – thanks to the vending machine

One step back, two steps forward for 3D TV



Didn’t come true

as we predicted

Legend



8


3D TV falls flat

$ 3,500.00

9



Telecommunications

The smartphone becomes a search phone

Mobile VoIP becomes a social network

Widening the bottleneck: telecom technology helps decongest the mobile

network

Paying for what we eat: carriers change data pricing and make regulators happy

Nixing the nines: reliability redefined and reassessed

Contract 2.0: long term solutions shorten and multiply

The line goes leaner. And greener.



Didn’t come true

as we predicted

Legend



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© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 11

We are in the post-PC era*

Android is the next Microsoft*

We want to watch what we want, when we want, on any device*

Everything gets faster forever*

Facebook is the next Google*


Smartphones and tablets: more than half of all computers

aren’t computers anymore

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Tablet computers: toys no more

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#4 – We are passive viewers and linear addicts

According to BBM Canada, adults 18+ watch 29.1

average weekly hours of television (National PPM

data averaged over first 47 weeks of 2009/10

broadcast year). Of this total, the average weekly

hours of live viewing is 28.2 (96.9% of viewing),

while the average weekly hours of playback

viewing is just 0.91 (3.1% of viewing).

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“TV is the fire that the tribe gathers around”

Duncan, you idiot. Why are you fishing

for the Daily Double when you hardly have

any money? #jeopardy 19


How big is Netflix?

According to Nielsen US, 6.5 million Netflix

subscribers watched an average of 9 hours of video in

February, 2011. That is 60 million hours of video.

In the same month, 297 million Americans watched an

average of 154 hours of TV. That is 45.7 BILLION

hours of video.

Netflix was <0.1% of all video watched.

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Bandwidth, bandwidth, bandwidth

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Wireless progress

Between 1957 and 2008, using better technology and

smaller cells, we can send 1,000,000x more data per

hertz of spectrum.

Between 2011 and 2015, the same techniques will

allow us to send 3x as much data per hertz.

Wireless data growth is going to be about 280% in

2011.

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Radio Spectrum

24


Internet brain: Search, hunt, acquire

“I wonder if Amazon has gazelles on sale?”

27


Social network brain: relax, share, socialize

“So, two hippos walk into a bar…”

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Stage 0 Social Media

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TMT Predictions customized events

Duncan Stewart can deliver a tailored presentation for your office/industry!

Email Duncan: [email protected]

Follow me on Twitter: dunstewart

Friend me on Facebook: facebook.com/dunstewart

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2011 TMT Predictions - FEI Canada Chapter/2011... · TMT, tax, audit, risk, corporate finance and...

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