2011 Special Reliability Assessment: A Primer on the ... Gas Study.pdf · 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030...
Transcript of 2011 Special Reliability Assessment: A Primer on the ... Gas Study.pdf · 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030...
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2011 Special Reliability Assessment:
A Primer on the Natural Gas and Electric
Power Interdependency in the United States
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2 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Timeline
Sept 13-14 Report sent to PC for review and comment
October 25 Report to be considered for approval by PC
November 18 Report to be considered for approval by BOT
Mid November Publish Report
Phase I
Phase II
• Under development
• Comments on the study design/scope received from PC
• Expected during Q1, 2012
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3 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Highlights
• Key differences exists between gas and electricity producers; regional differences also exist
• Increased coordination and communication is needed
• Nearby gas storage and dual-fuel switching options diminish interdependency issues
• Electric loads present unique challenges to gas pipeline operators
• Future expansion of pipelines to accommodate electric sector growth
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4 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Gas Storage in North America
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5 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Gas Demand Growth by Sector
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6 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
2010 US Gas Consumption
Areas of no gas
storage
Areas where
significant
potential
retirements may
occure more
gas-fired
generation
expected
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7 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
What We’ll Need
• Demand projected to increase by 55 to 65 percent by 2020; and potentially more than double by 2030
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
High, Likely, and Low Scenarios Electric Sector Gas Demand
High Case
Base Case
Low Case
(BCFD)
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8 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
What We Have
1,003 1,001 1,028 1,067 1,038 1,091 1,127 1,119
1,321
1,836
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
(TCF)
Source: Potential Gas Committee.
2010
1,898
Total Potential U.S. Natural Gas Resources
• Over 100 years of potential shale gas at current rates
• Uncertainty in environmental regulations will affect gas prices
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9 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
How We’ll Get it There
• 8.3 BCFD of gas pipeline capacity built in last 10 years
• 24k miles of gas pipeline built in last 10 years
Reference: Electric industry took 17 years to build 24k circuit miles of transmission greater than 200 kV
• More pipeline capacity will be needed to support new gas-fired capacity
8,460
6,517
6,983
9,262
12,848
10,423
7,661 8,198
12,705
14,859
28,938
19,532
13,882
18,606
10,080
-
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500
20,000
22,500
25,000
27,500
30,000
32,500
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
(MMCFD)
Note: Excludes Storage Pipelines after 2007
Natural Gas Pipeline Capacity Additions
Announced
Likely
Under Construction
Complete
2,432 2,338
1,998
2,391
3,571
2,243
1,459
1,152
1,582 1,663
3,554
3,347
1,787
2,714
1,189
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
(Miles)
Natural Gas Pipeline Mileage Additions
Announced
Likely
Under Construction
Complete
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10 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
How Much Gas-Fired Capacity
Are We Expecting?
• As provided in the 2011 Long-Term Reliability Assessment: Approximately 45 GW of Planned; 48 GW of Conceptual
More expected due to not yet announced retirements of coal-fired gen.
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11 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Do the Math…
• Assuming: For every 1 MW of coal-fired generation replaced with gas-fired generation (baseload; running 24 hours a day), approximately 0.168 MMCFD of gas supply is needed.
• Assuming: The most recent five-year average pipeline capacity/mile is 7 MMCFD/mile
• 24,000 miles of additional gas pipeline may be needed for about 50 GW of displaced coal-fired generation
This is the same amount of miles built in the past 10 years
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12 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Need Closer Coordination and Enhanced Communication
Nominations Scheduled For Next Day –Timely
Timely Nominations Confirmed
Nominations Scheduled For Next Day –Evening
Evening Nominations Confirmed
Effective Gas Flow
Day 1 –Morning
Day 1 –Afternoon
Day 1 –Evening
Day 2 –Early Morning
Day 2 –Morning
Nominations requested for Day 2, but changes in load forecast, system conditions, and, ultimately, generation schedules continue during Day 1
Day-Ahead Forecast and Unit Commitment
Commitment and Generation Schedules Confirmed
Generations Schedules Adjusted, Reliability Analysis
Real-Time Economic Dispatch
Gas
Day
Elec
tric
Day
Planning Gap
• Gas-Day vs. Electric Day
• Long-standing issue between the two industries
• Both sides have “dealt” with it, and aware of the potential issues
• Increasing concerns and challenges loom
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13 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Status of 2004 Recommendations
• Update since 2004 Study
• Significant progress has been made
• Recommendations for Reliability Assessment are implemented and continuing
• Coordination between pipeline operators and electric system operators is closer
• Identifying pipeline outages that can affect reliability
• More needed on planning front
• Firm contracts vs. pipeline expansion
• Many recommendations related to a “tracking” system
• Not formal in NERC process, but liaison activities between stakeholders and gas associations in place
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14 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY
Recommendations
• Natural gas storage expansion to meet unique electric sector demand characteristics (i.e., unexpected swings)
• Vital information needs to be shared with system operators from both industries.
• Communication between industries is essential
• Vulnerabilities should be identified and mitigating strategies implemented by both industries (i.e., coordinated action)
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Questions?