2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf

8/9/2019 2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf

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H U LDHP DM NO:

GH FOM MOM LY

aua 2011 (v p 201)

B Ba oo f of aval Opao tatg t Gop

Ppa fo: Of o t mt Of o h ta of Df

The views expressed in ths eprt are thse f the autor and d t reflect the fficia view,

pliy, r piti f te Deprtmet f efee r the Uited Stte Gverment.


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to latv Mtoolog

to Log o Movm Patt al

to to Ma Mvv a h Pa Pu)

to 6 ompx ahp

to - am of wo hat Wor

to a Do Pf

to ompat a t 202 Wat

to 0 Ba o h Pzzl

to 1 oato o U to


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Bed oo,

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Jay 2011 (eve p 2011)

T pa pou a at o th BDY LA pjt o th at t

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cqnta an a aj ta ct Ut tat lc thuh th t

lauch n It put o th Ut tat Gvt t uta wat

a th ht lvl Mcw an hw th actvt mpac Aca ntt

a cc

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ptca a Raa o tt at a t a p tcal

p wh obv bt o a a ava atala

hap b a ma ct an b th ccuv uch th

oato at b lan o th b c A a upt an otv

to th t tcq th ana o vb ata pov valuabl po t

u pto a a ba o oat vlopmt

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e zzle

R h b ru lt thr. r b urcd tw-h

ledrhp te c refee t e tde ece ld ut, he

ctv pplr, cr dcrtc pd nc. 2000, w.

cttll bl t rv th ccutve tr d nwl t puh r

nd t l ft th ct h dced t tp dw f th prdc t

thrw h prt n th lctn Mch 200 t tr Mdvdv, prt tht

r h jr tht w Pt ptc c l nd hd th tt

ppr ed t dpl Mvv cft b the ctr w

frene ccn; h truphed wth v 70 perent f e tt vt d w

red tht M

Wh w tctve but the trfe pwe w t l the pcpt

prt f Medvedev creer fctr wh h neve f ffice nt l th, but

tht h tr Pt ch t t prt th c d d rd t th p

trh, e cndrk pt n the ctv brnch d the pltcl

t Nl l . cutr wth ppulrl lct prnt . fc f hd

v, t t ll r "prdtl ch vt rr

pt nuc t tht f ed f Th w th tt R whe

r Ylt w pnt th d wh Pt r upr r 200 t

200 e kw h v tp-trv b trck btwee Pt

Mdvdv wu wrk pctc r whr t wuld tk Ru pltc d pl

pclt b hw w en l fct be eve be

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the trato a alze At a fareell res cfeece tin di no atet t

conceal tat s relihi th rdn Medvedev u ve uie quaty" o

t, hch cons n the fact at yelf a redet fo eght years ad ddnt do a

b ob By ilicatio Medvedev a gog to be aog h etor had .

ut roed to gve s sccesor he leeay o ae redeta decons le

tg that "I natall y [l l ave the rght to ere y ie in ackoledged

tha dfereces of o gt co a lo a thrd arte ght try to drie

edge betee the A y ibe dfclte , e aured he ni, u be

fretlled by the ecelle rk elatoh, gog bck o jot ervce at S

eterbrg cit hall e 90 "Dmrii Anatolevc ad are e aae that atac

ll e ae alog ernl oltcal ad ecooc e ere l be edle ate

to d dfeence in r roace here e ly differece ave o y, bu

over our ore than ffee yeas of og ogeer e have goen used to l iteig o

each oer

tn hads th os of t as gad ovngt o h

otet, e a actve olcy eal uc a energy rei ecooc aar, an

fdral hc had consd rdntal nool t l t alo

reaed front ad cente ulc oltc, ag over te cir of he ited Rsa

rty hc h coadg tothd ory e Sae D) and

cocatng th e citizery hugh the a i and heay bczed tr of

the ovnce Mevede ook over e redent' ctituti reibty fr

dloacy enal seciy and la eoceent an ric ited th Pi sing

Prsidil r corc brry 1 200 ssi-l rscri //rlir/r/00/0/ 14/137_y6330y8634_16008hm

4


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the esose to the globa economic ecession of 0 Moe nteestig ti a yea

o hs augaton the ce esde also od a btg ci tie o e ssa

stats qo ot l imtg msel to tadtoal foms ch as te anal esdental

adess to. aament e took adatage of e tet and oeed a deobog a a

T accot n "Go ussa a amblg ssay blshd a lbal o

esae Seembe 209, Medede assaled Rssas choc couto ad "legal

hlsm, "mte amateals ecoomy and technologcal backadess a

calle fo a semtoste "modeato of socety ad state hetocay e

ostoned himself a moe efomst lace tha Pme Mste Pti

As the dms hae tace e esecte oes they hae ha amost othg

o sstace o say abo tei eac iso of abo efeig olelae hases

abou mtal esect, coeaton and egla coslato No hae they oe moe

tha e od tdbt about the coitio of e esol eatos Medede and ti

seldom aea togee lc a stee clea of comet on oe anoe's o ey

hae bee tght-led aout ha ou ae e eatos soea gay oe

hee Meee bette eqed th omal eogate bt Pt osee

eomous fomal authty th e ete and the oulaton a cools the ug

aty, to boot A ey hae destee quetons abo the mendng fok n te oad

F mpl P h dcl h d Mdvdv s h m h p"yu (lgs t u i rch), wrs Mdvdv drss im wi th mr rml y (lk vous Fench) ppr th prsidt Ru e g ude he 93 cti t th me tepmpty Mdvdv d h wld b ig pcmnt cnn ye Se Dm he e se pme h dy mne by Ue Ruhseldr is tr ph c v ti wld hv h vt m t gml isd s prim mir , w rm Mdvdv s sdpi, wld hv prby gh hv Mdvdv impchd s prsidt

5


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o a ' ol tc e eetal electon o 0 1 ; hey eea ad aeam tha e to

o them l dc the omnaton beoeha ad ave a a commo oton

Mch aot e a andem zzlg een to eaoed and ell-beed

aaly tn the moe amla ge havg ee n e l melgh nce el t

hm a h nd o t 19 Mdvdv qntly dmd a an mo o a

ll g accomlce a elaboate aade mang a t dctatoh "t hole

ne ment tt ha ad, "at n a conty th a edetal tadtn

hee the ceal oe a alay he eal oe ad no a bob, e have eded

th a eeeave lke omeone ho no dent a al l M n e

commentaa ho bete Medvedev ed tha tn ll dlace hm and et o

the Kem a edet oce Medvedev' em ee n 01 2 Aalyt ho ae moe

chtable to Medvedev te egage "tandemoogeag a lo to ymolc

evet ometme mte deece odg a oalty a e lke

t e to cte to moe obg ae by leadg cola o Ra d

ot-comm aa O o the by Geog ea a oltcal cett at e

vety o aa t Beeley, comb thogh Medvedev ad t' l

tatement ad ace thm n he cntet cycle o cage Svet a Ra

htoy hat to mae o the aae hamoy e betee the o cet?

Beae ae ocommittal "Mch dee e ve e e

Bi N i dpy pi mi ini itp:vobononic227998t Th ui-Aicn co NiKshea a geagandaghe ie leade ikia Khse has aasially eeed edede a "Ria dy.6Wehe ey like i n miy Medede and Vladmi Pi ae sk i ea e. . . . ey ogh al e [display] ad adpinig adegy Lk Medee i asseing imel!O y utin bck h jut ho hi o' bo!) ok t t i ogic, i i c any cocio. Bi Wio, oog " F, Jy O ; i inJonon' Rui i o tha date

6


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elatosh betee the to ad ones ve o the gtde of the dffeeces ve

olcy He setches a fold tyology of th ossl tes ded by elatvely gh

a eatvely lo ocy ffeeces betee Put ad Medvedev o oe eson,

a a elatvey hgh a a elatvey lo e dffeetal betee the a send

Hs ages o the ossbtes ae endeed able 1

Table 1 Beslae s ages f e Put-Medvede Plcal Reats

Powe deetPy deee L

Hgh Pu tatv A Put cha

B

Lowntable cllectve leadeh tab cllcv ladh (D

Ce A, ee olcy dfeece ae lage but Medvedev s ot ca y

deedet on Pun Pt s cage ad ll lely scad o dongae Medveev

hen t suts h Ce B hee e e dfeetal s also geat but dffeees n

oo ae no Medvedev colanty do Pt s bddng " hs sceao

Medvedev ou be og ceta costtences th scee hetoc as a to of

Put o saes Put's esecves e hyotetca Ce C a o oe

dfeental (that s Medvedev avng olca esoces of s on) ad a de ga n

olcy ences gete cto a cofct th e tae, th the outco

deeet on the elatve stength o the as bases f sot ad the s

bzg assets And whe the oe ffeeta s. lo bu lcy dffeences a

7 eoe W. esaue "Rectios o Paten of Leaesip i oviet an PotSoviet [usian]iso Post-Sviet Afair 6 Jpt 2010) 234; ottios t fo 2970"Poe iffeeti i tis ne is efie s ee Mevev i epenent on utin poitic hiifi o cs his o o ifnti

7


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sleder as Cell D the resl u be stable leadrsh dut sch tme

Bresae d "a accmlatn cact em e bth eaes t try eze

the tatve by embrac cycal ly r t, ethe a remst r evanchs latrm

Bresaes eleat eve the sbt es ad rcumtces tha mht aect e

rbably n c ath matral, ccds hat rs sa

ee ab the rblem des t et rm ccluss t be dra e ll

jus hve t at ad ee

A nublhed ae by mthy C te arvard Uverty verment

Deartment cmmssed by me r S es ver mch the ame nd,

devt rther mre attet t Medvedev mtvas Mk use the e

recrd the Msc m mll ad ccess t Pt ad Medvedev thrh the aal

sesss e vemet-snse Valda Dscuss Club, Cltn cses n e

ul betee rds and eedsbeteen the ardety remst vls Pesdet

Medvedev ad the t mdty e mrvemet actl ly ndertaken ke Beslauer ad

mst clse atchers te uss scee, Cltn ccedes tha a e chanes ave take

ace nstace uld clde Medvedevs dmsl me ach-cservatve cl

(uch a ur kv, th vtra mayr Msc Smb 2) rmtn

techcrt bessme t t here ut redent ved veterns

the secry ervces h uch crtcm the Slnst t leslt t end the

retrl etentn vuas acced ecnmc cme me acke the

dmsatve ressre n stn artes mvemets, ad NOs creatn a

hh-technly brtry tn Skkv) tde Mc Neees Cl s

Ibi. Ti J n, S p nig Mv n i, Jnu


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t tuc by dy btw dt dcn ad the ng gl lted

th eident' chyg l ly d dvdv nttv t

hv eteed t b tyd by buuctc nd nc And

nt dc v. bn bg cnt d cy cc t

ut wuld hv chwd d 0

T cc f cntdct betee wd d dd l dvc v

vl hyth hy ld t bl 2

Tbl 2 t vl ytheses t G betee Medvedevs Retic d

Actn T

Hhei upton

Incy dvdv d t lv h dd th t d lvl

igtigt Algh Medvedev y be c h w lctd lt cll

h w

h ncbl dlv

n ny p

.

cn dvdv tic digd t tt l tc dt dcntn d l ptue th Pt p w

ut dvdv guly w cl hy thwtd by ld-chl Pt.

dvdv a Pt agree the eed cge but w it tc t ly ll, gb d

I lt' dgn, dvdv y y t lv wn tcth

degree f h cty d deth f ndestndng nnwn n th Inncy

cn, d Ftt c, he eide lcg bth hety d

A in poin i h iil o Lukov i un' lion ih h o l tin, going k to tggl o oi Yti in t lt 190. Lkov plSg Sobin, i o losl i to i o Mvv n sv s hi o o i oht pintil inisio n t pi ii hn. pl o sti initiiv ob lk o oloup to h iqu io th it o Sgi Mgnitkii h Moo to o goup of invo o i i n pion i ovb 00. Af ii, Mvv o oi po ooug vi, bu lil pp i h

9


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udrtanding; th ghtwght vio hi coint ar a but hazy; n

ns d avr chang ny wth tht us b or

uthatng nhud chg t cctbl to poor Pt t i t

g s. hypoth n varyng way ncty and gtwgt

hypoth, h tnd th curt tuat, havg lctd oa

cc wh cp o ngnng cg I th tt ypoth

ut p chng dvdv wh t nstt wg th Scn d

ns ypoth tn w b dvdv ' ccpt wrkng wth i

th t bt t c t t bby tp

O pnc t tk n tht nw th h gnt tht thy

t prct ly n Akd but h allgd jb v--vs tn a tvw

wt F o NN Stb 209, t vv pot s h

ha bor, that had away coidrd hs a br Pt ' ta ad that th

tw. ttdd th . w co a nga t St tbg) S Uvty

bi or a dcad aat Bt r wa or to t toy, aid:

I th u vct vy clo B yu tk bt ct kd

c, bo pnchant, , s, th ca b dititio I hv y

convc nd h hs Ov th c gt ys h [ut] hd th

chnc h cnvc nt c d y pnn h pt th nt

ct ccy h tc p n th n dntc

ldr

t s gsc b wh th nnc pncht ght

wh wd prvail thr dic wr to calat I though hi jdgnt i

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tha dic wl l b coaind ad tin wi coti to av th advaag, baig

ci that to boad contt o high oitc i Blau h ag that

only i wil l th a

n latv Mtoolog

T pi o D LAD i at clo attto to nonvbal igalto

th pyica ovnt bod and t pt, a ditict o ch yld

iight ito bhavo o vial, cluig o pnt po political a

I uch cnt ach ad i th pt ay, th i tool ploy ov

att Aay PA a tchu that vlv bt 930 a 960 a a

ul o ygy btw two oudg figs h. bil li Hngaa choogah

dol Laban, who atd th ll llig with a yt o notating dc ;

b a ivtiv Bi tih aagnt coltant wo oud applicatio o th

volvg thod i dty ad whit-colla oic wok PA ad ch

ovbal/ov ay gal pot tha th tuy o boi ly ov gv

th aalyt owi uvailab oaton about t an o woa bnath th k

A ab collaboato, aolLyn oo p it, oally vbl oght

ad g co pcptibl a thy a a o in ovt O cou ay

tha ov. tanlcnt wap o lo in ood ad inttio a

pgnt thoug whch g o th ov i pc ay b s

In earlie resea pae y Lea elated speeh t min ae he veet baelne aetablihed. is press was nderake in the edbiiy vlitin tdy ad in leade pe eie tlevl ctiue n picl pc Car-yne Mre M a Mak Dc:. Th y-M c h Wkcw c Mn r 2005, 60


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PA cocptazs pop akig dcsos n th sqta stags ah

l kd to tta body pssions At vy sag th s ai o ovchg wys

wch dcso pocss s ppoachd h ASSERTVE ppoach th o acta

ptl h tw t d wth plyg t nd gy t th pc

occ PERSECV s o statgc otloo ad has o do wth ostong onsl

shpg ot to chv th s slt h cobato o th

tag nd th tw gl d yld s ct tvatns altgh S b 3

o y o th typ


17/40

Th Log o Movnt Patn alss

Tabl Th Lgic f Mvnt att aly

Dson sg to tatnSSERVE PSECVE

Ivs i

a

Ex

l

Makg th t b ca aig ppctiv by civgd lify ifatin wii a c valabl ncvingpcbd aa ncpag g

Aendngcpv t iati ay a

Ouc yatic ach Otc: dcvgtablihing thd dig altnativ w apachtadad

Di

Evalua

Makg th t a aing ppctiv by civgp uild lv g lativ iptc wighg cnvici jutify i tnt idat d ig

Intnding p t i

Ouc pitig aga Otc: clty ittidicul dd ianc cytallzati f i asu

i

i

Makg th ing ppciv by civg

iplntati t adjt th dvlpig tag f actnt--t t ig and g th cqc

Comng cti ac tg

Ouc alt t tcc ad Otc: ttg gal aingti piti pptu g, and pating lilnttin

T it M tag i nwn th ATTENDIG ha t. bdy'

v int tw pl iiy cidati ad tcig f pbl at

hand I th individa vi cu ativly th ctly ndictly t

hizal plan tiva cnid t b f IVSTIA. In

4


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ivtgatig h o cioly a a pobl by oig dctly o caig

ad cagozig idictly f pctv ath tha astio is doat apoach

th otvatio s o o XR wch volvs saching out w da ad

altatvs. aong a boa gat o ioatio s th. oth two phass A

aaysts hav obvd a consnt colatio btwn physical ov ad th

ta activt o dci aing Ivtgating qi caacity to tiliz sac

ffo vaying th focus bwn dictig (wth its p ipotig a obig qalit) a

iicting wth ts scang ad scutiing qaty xploig qui th ailiy

to hap th oonta pa vayg os latiohp o th filds of availab

ioatio b closing gaig in idas fo vty o socs and spadg

(aing oslf o to a ag of viw)

idat dcson tag in th PA l ico s h phas th

bdg btw nit ial coplatio and taing aco spon to th dignatd

pol I Ri o asso ivua blds. solv to s

th i c olton to pocd Ts s dipayd pyical ly ovt in th

vtcal pa xpd th a lght o dcad psu. pwa o a tog

icasd p dowwad to ast oc o soal wght ltatvy, in

AAT und pcv h indivdal tabiss th latv poac h

action and as ss o o av a alstic sn f poiis and a ca

pspctiv T body gins pctv o pol by iig in th vcal pla to

loo a iu ov o to ay o by dcndig to ptat bah ufac o gt a

dnt o popoo

i, 8

15


19/40

T thid and clmating M tag i COMI, which th

implmttio c o dciio poc ommiting i aot chooing igh

momnt o ct and siig oppotnt to ag t tion and dliv lt t cntal ly

ivov ith TIMI o AIPATI T tiv vaa ting ntil magig

th pac of lntaton lctig oppot ont to pocd It chod

phyiclly acclatio o dclaton o cyclg ovt th gittal pa

pctvointd aticiatg volv tatgca coollig th ongoig po of

timg ach dcion tag to ach long obctv and avoi ngaiv

coqc I Moo wod hi ui th ab ili y to ap gial pl

cotol lg th poynt o ctio y tating tpoail y wthdwing fo ttgic

ao) ad advacg ocig wh a avnu o fowad oto bcom

op)'

hn mb and hi col lag hav aplid M to cooat xctiv, y

omally da an i tvw of two ho wh iiv iua on copay pmi

ywh fom o ndd to sval nd GM w ll b dcd i th typcal

i tviw lv ad on vdotap th a codd ad th cod y th alyt og a

mb of ax of mat lad to t p gy, pac h otl

o ubjct' M potait fod by timat of th latv occc dvotd to

th vaou cod ak T m to cnt ad may b pt a

tng th intit o th po bavioal vm pcif gt

o th dciio oc

o poltcal g th logc dntcal, athogh implmttio will vy

bca a ogn lad caot bjctd to a t-dow viw o tm by th

id,


20/40

aalyt 18 a poxy M exploit video ecoig of the taema beig iteviewed

deliveing peeche conveg wh bodte. an ellow leae a pe

confeece o anweing joali' quetio, and o o The am i te amet ift

ytemac mvemet cle. abut inate educible. decio poclive Sdyig a

lad' PM i coxt iddld with hig t wch mo tycal of t dco

eviome eouly tae into coideatio

o M h a

Fo the andem i owe i the ian Fedeaton we ae foae to ave MP

wokp o bo o the executed oBODY LA b the M pioee ae Lamb

am analyzed Medvedev in e pigumme of 2 a he etled io i ew

poition baig i on video o him i acton fom le comled at the SNC uin

wa tded y am in - o the pojec an hi MP wa eviewed o ae

tability at thi ime ab ad en coepoded at leng about hi findig M

coe chat fo Medvedev and Pti ae epodced a Table ad idicato

onded of o the eaet pece w ll tat y expl icaig e coe fomatio aot

each dvidal acton motivaio

medlgicl diici Bdy Led ha ug o dy leader in high e ce he poect'incpin MA md iv ion ignu icid m n inviw in whiccndiio uppr he nrl eiciin e idivil veme. i pec merenwill b fuh f ok


21/40

Tbl : MA Pofil o Mdvd

Dison stagcton otato

ERVE- 55 PERV- 5A dig- 5 Iv g ig- 5 xoig- 1

Id 4 Dti- vlti 2Comittig 5 im 30% A iit 1

Dyamis 8 (o l of 1 1

Eitd by n mb, Mytb 28

f l p cpt mt ii Mdvv ppoch to dcion l

), i i Acto Ma. n t o th th of dcion i, i motivt o

toly to comin to ctio whic ccont fo pct of Mdvv M

cod by mb Id o bildn ppo, i lttl l poit hi pof

with co on tht coot of pct y f th o ctd of th th

t fo Mdvdv i t fit tti, o piy whin d ly of th

pobl cooti Attd occp hi 1 5 ct of tim 19 A

bw tiv pod to th mo contpltiv pctiv o,

Mdvdv b bi owd th o h i ymty i pcly vdnt

i th committi t wh Mdvv xpnd ot twic mc fot o tim

thn o nticipin o-t coqc nd tdin owd ltimt ol A b

d con th mov vidc Mdvdv i c li o z p ituto ucly

d o do o blc wt tm hn btl hd o y wid-ld

pc of wh hi opod i ittv wil l iv i to ubttivly my b of l itt l

i rla o o hr h Medvedev abiliy o mo ao in a ngrad way el o spa slow. ha capaciy i syonyos beavioaly wh os ad anss o oron. has said pad ov s o to wok a ha o th uian uii commiio bca h wolda od s dald admiive wok borin See Maina ikoay a Svandize DmiriyMdvdv Gog a ounry k ussa s Aways Gog To Trckr Than Ohr onrsransa by https://www.opensouce.gov/port lserver/pt/g ew y, w Book Cs Mdd o asf, aw, oracy , Slovk p


22/40

concous itst o hi d h w s justictin o wt h poots s cg

oly tospctivy, oc h h c

It i notbl tht Mdvdv hisl h d to so o th qliti

itviw wth . joli Nioli vidz. i l 08 . cod tht h tds to

li n t t: "I on ovly hh n y jdgt Uot, s

i th cs d it oti co ot tty sply It i d o to stuggl with

ths lo votd tht h p to g ow to ing coics witho ly

"O ny vydy qtos, h sid to Svnd, I v lwys d dcos

qicy And, spg ly, I hv lot v i t I s jt tht I

udstd tht o t dcsio, wi ll d xpnding xt t o t

i s Ad onc I hv d dcio, I cy t o itly d lot v

goi ov wt hv o L i ho

Nikoi Min S, Mdd (S. bug A, 208, 3


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two o thee tes moe requetly than in ssertive ode Fo tin evalating and

icitig ctivty oveshadows deteriig an ting activty; for Mdvedev

detering s vileg as ofen s evalating a tmg s vileged ove

tctig

O ovrall crtrio o whic ut and Mdvdv a faiy siar is i trs

o YA wch Lb and his grou defe as the nmbe o sultaeos nvel or

orotie cycles of esio a indivdual will ie ad cotie O a scale of 1

to cotructed b cotg the nmbe o sultaeo efort hae chges the

iivua akes) Put scores 7 Medvedev regse 8 o of . Medvedev s sghtly

hghe th Puti s city to ndetke siml teous novel decsios

Te MPA ethoology ots some cocluios at vriance wi the

covetiol wisdo abut the Russian duvrs It is Mevedev not Pti who s

argial ly e oe dyic of e two ad the ore roficiet at suig ulti le

ssgmes a the same time Put i s the moe. gitive ad strtegic eber the.

do e is ardwred to ae order to ga ersectve o his geda Desite hs

iage as n uthoritri strog hs agge of e body imlies at he. ees

ch ore energy o strtegig than he does o strgrmig Puti ersistetly

ostoes gettig on the sloe t action he dager tht e ay be excessivel

dssed t cllect rocss store iftio a ay we ff metay raer

tha focus o the ractcl choice set or eae t as talked off an on sie

2000 about the eed to ruce corutio in Rssia s reset rie in istr

evereless he has don l it le cocretely to make hedway towa is goal

MoreMo and Mkig Dsios, 90.

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Mdvdv oft picturd s wk udrlig o utis is i fct th or

ction-d of th tw H pus uch o rgy thn uti to coiting os of

wc flows to tccly-l ting chocs Mddv s n so wys or

rict of Wst coport xcutv . o tyicl o st h. is

otv o bgi g dcsos by cottg t ction bsd on

pltto of is blfs nd ports s pnc s to gt hold of soig h

vl d gt rght dow to dong t

T fl sid of ts chrctrstc s t Mdvdv is gv to ovng wi tot

gnrl stgic dsign in nd His spcs d rocs ofn lck intllctl

dpth spccs bot ow hs rogr ght co ou i prctc strtgc

vsio s to ow th rts fit togr d th sqc in whc y ight fold

Concrng ction otcos h ss or ftd cig th o contt o n

rlzl tgts His sttts sotis cotn grig contdictios In Go

Rssi! ifso for xl Mdvdv lntd Rsss ddcy o gy

xtrcton b sd fs vctor o cooc odnto sould bou

rkng Rus nto o o th ldng cou i ficicy of produco

trnsporttion nd s o nrgy O occson Mddv y gi o dvlop n

clsiv dsig only tr s cotd to oly His hsy dciso to rcog

Soth Osst nd Abkhi Moscow-rotcd clvs i og s sovrgn

stts i Agust 20 oly two ws tr Russs wr w org i l luss hs

tdcy

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oplex Ptep

Put . h. Ply ad Mvv h cto Ma sml hum

bngs Poltclly on ows hs poso tly to t oth, stablshd nto

ld . dlay md. h ovm ga Ital pom.

alyss y BDY AS o apaanc a Mdvdv' s swag- cony May

200 ndcad tha whl Mdvdv wa kg to og had o h ow h d o

wth a act dg o atal pct d dc to o m 3 H ltally l l

back nto whnv Pt dgd aad th two pntd hlv n

combnton o th wol aumpo tha Pt t h p ad n t o

aw pow and andng wthn th tad

e o wo ok

Tat, owv s ot by a log shot th only ln n stoy, as acd by MP It

hold ot dtct om no nsghat any way Pun and Mdvdv m a

copleay and qt coatbl

ldsp t n lay look

t Pt ovnt att 204

Wn ab d tat d o

Pun low comg ncton "

bn o td ad who

i i by npgi T H Th Hidn Dmio (Nw Duby2 udy h u p d din n pp h n iy n piy in bi i inn n hi

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comlm hi m i coagig wo og owa mmao ad ca

oaioal wok nviomn hi am i a fc dscio o

Mdvdv who a h i wa evng a u' mli chif of saff am

conjcud n 0 wh h viid Pis ofl n mo dail ad xami

Mdvdvs fo h is m ha P was aacd o Mdvdv bca Mdvdv i

a og ac of mlmao whch Pui s o Mdvdv fo hs a has ad

u blic ly f hi xm a da wic Mdvdv lans owad skiig

ov 2

Tandem Decisio Prefeeces

O mau of goon. o i mg if w avag civ. gh d

wanss of h id and m mi bwn h fi and cod colu of

Tabls 4 and 5 Th cobid fcs vn o ah icy wh ach ma

comng fo ohs dc i h andg cgoy (fo Mdvdv d

commg (fo un h do o df makdly ndg cagoy ogh

hy ddica 3 c o h os o andg ( 1 5 cn Mdvdv 45 n

Pun 375 cn o ndng 4 c Mdvdv 35 c n and 32

c o commg 45 cn Mvv 2 cn u As bw h av

(accal mod of aco and h cv (sagi hy a oly sghly basd

owd h cv mod (y 525 c o 475 cn Ths dibtio of n

4 Warrn Lab ora o rna Conor, eeme 005 Mvv sai o i nr Yo now w sc ir wa is eilou ai warsinin and ow is o iigat o os hoogh dgr vy pob a h om acoss ad ame across vn i eriod d how he ake deiio oy on ai o h a omlex adovrarchig anaysis i h i vry iporan for any ar an vn or o or a prsi Anee r is soing or n pp ro rsn uin." S Lio Barbr, FilT nrviw wih iri Mvv, Mach 008.

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otivato sts vhadd sctv on y oliticl agdovidd at

th dcio nc lly shd h balanc is sca vdt a th.

itdg sag, w in, ansid y s i o oaton, is oy ha as

otivatd as. Mdvdv o g o th. lly l

h vg o Mdvdv ad tin i s ovdd by MPAs awok o

gaging th aty o ITRATJO btwn idividuas bls 6 and 7 covy h

xt to wch Mdvdv and Pti ull th ottal o HAI ad RIVA yl

o dciio ing

Ts asu dvd o ov obsvao ad th calculao o th

achig o coonc btw ot and h ov o hang o

satching o dssoanc o ot

d sha ovnts ivat

I shag styl th inividal

ls d o cay ot i ntatvs

with ad though o ol n

th ivt styl th dsi s to go

it alo I a so s ov consoanc s hig h 5 c o otial d

ov disonac is low than 5 cnt MA conds h o hi to hav

haig syl I aio a vd th indvidl i dd va i syl both

cononac ad donc co o a l h 5 c th dvidal claid

EU styl o at o th intctiol it itivs o oths abs sch

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l pvds r t tyl SAE whc th dvdl wvs btw

hg prv cs

gn w wts gnct dcpcy mvmt l bw t

tw pcps tm Mvv bl 6) psnts hghy hrg xt n

tw th th ccl tg (ntdg nd cmtng t ttdg stg b

cm cs s tl d dsncld t ct th pvcy shg hs sg

stnct xcds s pvt nstct wh l nth cl th 50 pcnt m Mddvs

tlty t ut t tgs d ppty hg t th tw hlp

xpln hs utstl nctl cl btsZ

T 6 ctn Mdvdv a

Don tag S

tl Pvt ntlAtt Nutl 40 2%Id

Vtl 8% 55%Cmm

hr

7% 3%ntng

H

Esmtd b W mb Mytm 2008

T MPA t dmtt tn l 7) b tgly prv d

dpndnt-mdd d bby dsncl t h ds d cndcs w

th th dcs stgs ttndng d cmmttng ndd Put s th mst

prv-rgdng ld sdd v th w spn O AS lw tt

ly d lt t dcn pc h s t pt t b nlucd mc by nyt

6 Versaile inerain is reed wen b sa ad rivae are 55% r mre. Verie Inennwih edvedev al under mbines ai an prvae yle. he Vesaie iener i able t reenti r piin an invi ripra haig ith h im ablihig a agrp jint pps;as veratle enders are able preserve indepedee i deermiin an evalatin s tat te re ming an ntio i maad witut bing i by i th ppl7 In er reen w BODY LDS I ave e edvedevs inabiliy u hruh he relvaoing o hi a an y uy in viw a havio

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preside of Rssia clde Te overbal evdenc aso sggests how wtever er

rlatios i th past Pti could hol gret influec ove the ifomtio pltform o th

curr-day tandm escially since Mevev hislf is so unotivatd to focs o he

ifomtio-gathig andig stag a all By caton Mvv cold b big

usd by u in o broadcst olicis at do mollify rml opponsas y of

charg

Tabl 7: Itrctio for tin b

Deon tage rig potal Pivt otl i

rivt 4% 9%Ied

Sin

% 35%Cmiig rivte 4% %

Idnyng - Meim

b) Estiate by We ab -; MaySeptmer

Itedg i th de of our re successve decision phses is of spa

itrst vis--vis itractio sinc it is r and ly r tht Mvdv d Pti ar

both peispose o operte though saring Medvedvs saring is scored at prcet

o the pottial l thog Pti s rtig is oticebly lower at ercent at this sg

is jus as otceably ess private moe shag-mide a anywhee else in h

potfolio Ts concrc is ontal fondato fr cooprtioor lso

coceivably for sess he mets o tis or that polcy optio aside ey may ot lways

fl comfortabl wth aroacg th dcsio procs p s i sch difft fasons

Yt this is th dciio a whr thy o hv t gratt propct for gttig

togthr

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With gd to th gl MA at o ENTIFIG with o Pt ad

Mdvd a c o i coh h boto ow o abl 6 ad 7 dtyg

to th g o pontaiy idivid tai in th liohp with o

viot h ucy o vaitio o th -oud ot ow nd

gowingig o hap low dcat high iu o low idtiyg Mvv

ovt ti a hig aont o what i known in MP plnc hap low

aig h thuiticlly idtii gag wi oth Pti o in

idtiyg o ggg ith o oig ovt' ot

low i o bod o tid which d o k hi pctiv tghty

tuctd cotad igig apct togth i o Pt i ot ta padg

otwd H c di ctio bout whth a w to gt ivovd with o

pla and th 202 Washd

T copi o th. MdvdvPt php . coidb Ty a.

dnt pon with dnt t ad labi lit i A a ha cod i i

td ov th y th i o t on wy o

ay ld o do o h job ad th o t

on wy to cotit lahp

Fo th tag oit t Mocow tad

whi l dl pct o wtot i o h g

o oia to t pogaatc pc o

Mdvdv d ti dvg owa oit o

hi bt at last to ow av b tyi

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r y rl gret Althugh Mdd h rid fct f th t

q h d t dct ddn r ricl cgcidrig rltiry chg t

h b lth t w ll -big f i t d cty i th t

i! xd h. iw i wy

N y tfd wth th rt t wc w ng y tl

bu th nd t rc th c chg i t lt cl yt d t

bu gg bck th dcrtc 1 N t cbl t t

rly th tt h di th ur t ut

W n gg t ru Hty d i ll -cidrd liticl h r

thn c i n tr d t gic cc nd ud i t brk

f c W c' rd cil bl ty r t fy f ctz f

th k y knd btrc try W h rigt t cric tb l f

n fr higet gl Chng wi ll c bt y wi ll tdy

wll-ccid t by t

Tr l it l i g Pt wuld fd bctb

Whn t c t dc ty wuld hglight bc. cltity f

th c' nc hy n n h th ndbl rqt f ud

dc g crd hi t nift trgth nd w td t ft

nr wth Mdd dit gihig hilf i ittig d ut n ttg

T tw cnrg hlthy i trt i tig d it i ciy thi tg thy

r bth thir t iterci I thr wrd ctry t ch yi i u d

brd grud fr ig tht th Mdd-Puti rtnrhi i bl

hlty d rdcti

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Wll the team rean tact and past e elet year 01? Hee s wha

Medvedv sa t aara

I we ae talng ee abt respsble pl tcas wh represe a sge plt ca l

rcand Prm t and atral rprsnt a ngl ltcal cthn

mag sch dcss 20 2 r 2, w hav t l at th ra

stat Whe Jet s say a party taes a ecs whm t pt rwa

the pst pesde t bases t what ctn s pes perates n

hw vable e s whether e s capable wng T what happened whe

Vladmr Pt asweed s qest [ 2008]. he ms mdae dcatrs

le pplarty ratgs have be tae nt act S ar we have gd ratgs

Tats why we btedly wl l cme t agreeme beween rselves

Cntrary t wha may ave been wng ab e andem pedc at eer

pragmatsm and a erel sared beles wll eep te eam n haress 0 e

dds ar. tha ach w l l an pesent stttal rle . T. prsdental em as bee

elngated by csttal amendet t sx yes sartng n 202 and s e tade

ma wl l cn tl 0 v byd rt rmla m

avale Pt's nterests than Medvedv's a at s the wld cd he game

It ble thg le a lely tha Medvedev wl le atece wt d'

jnt nactn ad attemp t stage a plt cal breat

28 Som rent pol ave repred tha ltly ore R would prr Mdvdv to e rlte in2 tha o utin turn all he ound take f rnd ha dvdv ad P eai oe ame pag poliialy Pin were o o on he aak aain Mdvdv iuaion wod verydfr.

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B t t Puzzl

e rc coose ce o he ssan duvrs daw y M eable s o

reflec aew on he e of ow he ade ncos ha was rased early hs

aer

L s bg wh Brslaur a wh s wo-y-wo arx of ossbls

fo nerreaon dene by aes o deologca and owe dffereals ewee

wo heoes O hs or caegores C A eaures Medvedev as Ps olcal saell e

wh a aonoos o of vew u o ably o o effec ad hece vulerale

o beng ded or deed I y oo hs ovesaes e olcy dfeences

bewee P and Medvedev Cell B, Medvedev ccrs n un's onons b s

on a sow of ndeedence I a dbos abo hs ossbl y becase Medvedev bold

cal or acceleraed ansorao o he syse gve every sg o beng aue

MP aes e asso a as a racca aer egral oveen cano be

coerfeed b e sjec Medveev lely gves. vce noos. e holds re

whou h beng ully eedfl o he ercal conseuences or calleges ey ly

Te erence s ha he rheorcal general es. and oversaee w ch Medveev

dulges have o do a roo w hs nadua ovo and cocave labl s

ad no w s ne sese of urose

I reslaes C C, Medveev has oh a cuevalg l cal ase and

dscee oos We suld e awake o hs ossby b as c ers of

decso syle as o olcy osos The osec s gaed by Medvedevs and

un's ecrocal oeness o eracon a e sage of deernaon o en ally

he saon o C D accordng o eslaer he ade s a sale darcy or s

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ules d until e princp seies the inttve nvtes pgrtclly d

hve s cep de I hery here i ig e cbtve peil

uc lg pwe d picile MA itructs th he dds l itte git i

I hve explined

Tring ls hypths b th g bw Mdvdv' ridti

retic d the ege reul chieve vee lyi gve s se prce n

ll ve

Meveev insncere hi ries chnge? r e MPA we n

ier t he pbty t Wht he. thh. s crry hi ppch t

tters stte d t uch drive deve brdy prudy nt rt d

ides Mrever he. eutrl we i ces t exudig hi ides c ey e.

whch ke pedic deced inep iring nd sring he e

iherently reer grise either-r ccept d values te dscnected r the

sce w e wld d he in el l e r hs w her ice

dlecece he hs exiited hyic rng iuit which iibit rus

vee Tdy s py expi why he c e cprehensive chg nd

ye be u ch wh l hi herc ir excie nd tick

9 Eli pj rp g ddiil hvl r g i' i y je w pi g e veiey e we. See re r MoentPaig ad h Dciso-akig Procss Dur Crsis: Vladimir Pui- A Excpoal Cas,Si Sdi G Dmbr 200. Br At of Tus o Move had ladr

Pu Prd oRussia Bhaioral Mom alysis wi Isoorphi Lik o olicy giRee Dee Nvl W Cllee 200 .

30re s Dmr Mdd A Sudy Polial adrhp ad Dci-Makg Syl pril20 I0 Srgi Sdi r r dii yyil vb yl dperliy

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Colo s scod hory hgs o Mdvdv bing a docy a pol tcal

gtwgt who covtos. ar a kd o pronal oby proc ad do o at o

way o th oth t thi von, dlbaty lcd Mdvdv a a plachld,

pasig ov tiats ro his in crcl oovk oicials wi a ackgrond in

ct vc and ocl onalts who gh av td -pdnt o

tood n way o h rclag th Krln n 202 h MA vdnc do o

with Mdvdv a wak or pasv alog s saing ropnsy do iply o

lanc on oths to a dcso H s g tn ot pota oth

Mdvdvs poona and poliical l and us b ron on wo las

havt On th posiiv d Mdvdv s or dynic ad caabl o inovatg than

uin and is or rol and acical As copn or s saig dcy an o

o raons h act artiv ly wich on occasion a yild ipu lsiv and v

aggrv dciion notio a Mdvdvs ids ar no or han a prsoal

hob is. iplabl Idivduals ar incapal o silating bavioral potoyp

o ad abou whc Mov att Aalyss aks c

Wha o d hypo loatd y Colton. wch is that dvdv

chgd w towng o a mr at tat dvsty and cang ad aks

th contiac n ow o Pti and h cl? h MA tiato ovd paal

valdation or ti hypoti, nauch a t tand i a wll-adjustd t wo

bs a o th wo tally potv ad d o o o aoth'

diccis Sti ll r i ty o purpo hould not xaggratd uti i i clsd

ad val-dv way is pron to conductig hil a bad cop poting arh

tatnts abo indiv idual ad oth acors who do not coply with i xpcatos


37/40

Mdvdv ha on occai lgraphd rsvatio aot ut' roclaatioos

rcntly s nitabl rso o nhaps wth a rark by th p

tr nsuatg hat b agat Mkha hodorovsk, was gly a

chargd i h cod trl or cooic cri I t s a dv ion o taks tw

th colads n s ar Mdvdv taks o to th pa o good copn y

tiato owg to h drlyng pychologcal tcy to b a lasr ad shar t

Mdvdv ody o t to t paks to a wl upprssd ang that coul d

otlt n badcop havr

Yt anor ossbiity wold b that an narav about th tad i abot

frustraon tha s Mddv gnunly was abts rors and thy a

ytatically obtruct by tin h s o dnyig hat junior ladrs horic

pcial ly c h atun o0 ha bn incrasgly csorio about sia'

ailing ad incrasingly adaat abo th nd to rdy th throg ro or

ca t b dnd ha Mvdv s oltcally dndt o a sno ladr wo ha th

rorcs to vto chag h daprov o ha sad, ot vy nac o pnchat

a Mdvdv pt t o akara wll brd btt dscrd ad to dat ay icro

dnc hav bn bddd a acro contxt o broad cocord o udantals

v dvions occr ad Mdvdv o th o ad grows dicont h wll

hbtd y s lack o spotaty and h lac o th capacty or gtcal ly nid

ovrbal aggso short powr to lgrah h appal o chag ad

costtly obili ots bhd th cas s litd Wh tin o th othr ad

1 Mdvdv mad i thily ild pimad n Db 24 200 ay ial ld ha tigt t ct n a ciminal ca f a vi i ah Ti wa ly a utin tat taKdvii wa a ti w ld "it i ai h w at Mvv intvnti, a Mw und vii gilty a ad a g pi tc t n wa alady vig

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t the bake o tande acio oe o the tie wi ll be de to hi abit of

contilly etuing o i nfoatio gtheig befoe ogg head i e decio cycle

y nate deey ivae eo he c be coute to kee hi oliticl cacltio

to hie util e lt oible oet fo veting te

Scao ub iv o olto ahi conseu, would t wth al

eoe Medvedev cedetia l a a eoe ad ut' oe conevatve

it inct whe ytheig the ito a gand agi wheeby cage i i ntuce bu

oly in all contollabe oe he le o MPA coni thi yothe to oit

y e ae toe it hw. tha the co-leade have. ylitic attibte that cotibe to

the eent taleate u ti ow e legitiacy a uthoity o h thugh chage;

oly to a ited etet oe e ake e coiten to do o e i lggih i

tdyig any itaton d oig itet o ake chce; hi weet it o al l

ileetatio Medveev i oe ecetve o cage bt le abe to effectvely

coceive o it A he coe hot i geting o the eat o the obe o hi geda

he ote d hiel tuggling to cay ot vague anodyne in tatve Medvedev

defect concat eotonal etaty e otacle to allying the

itegi and the lcla a wo owie wold be hi ata ace

omatons o U.. to

Te oegoig alyi oe acton oie SG olyake and

dlot

o Aeica eeetative who wih to egage the ui tade of Ation

Man d he Playe efectively a aeal t thei iteding efeence i e b

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it f y Psntig w

SG t slid kwldg b

i trgly dviabl Shrg at th

ittig tg i cmm

chn fr ldr

iiv uay wll a w thm It

my th d t fifl rway irchg

O bnc mty licy rrch d wt r mt cmmdd fr

th. frmt-crvig ti T frm sld s t nw dt ad t

ld mlv valai ad rzat withut askig fr rm act

cmmim i lath giv withu dw-ut r csirati . ti th. ivt

dcii mr ct b cd t l chg wi r

imtin itrrtatn r l cur cti may al l th sm b fi

dg brd ltiv intilhugh w il l lkly w t rviit

imtin tg t verify fr crytlliing s gls r satgy Whn slsig

gl h my rdy t gt int rcg xchang ida

With Mdvdv rcmmd th th S snt riritis th t st

with hi val and dcld bctiv d ctain a iml i fr cmmitmt th tag

whr h i mt t m Mdvd may b n t rticit ig-lv dilg in

th shrs f tnding ad cmmitting fr ml ss l k ghait ad

miil df H i t t gg bttivl wit whatvr rtnr gt im

rd t hi tatd blis hl-fd as thy may nd hi aci lan t dat

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I I am gh n my analyss the bicephalo leadehp n Moscw w ll pesevee

o o tm to omwhh no t ay tht th cas t nwdg zeo

a mmm, w l ec ssan oeg olcy o te net yea ad a hal a Aeca

plcy vga ogh hoppy wa ad o wn 0 1 lctio appoach. Wth

th tad pts pat , oms apat, o gd, wl ba cau oog

a analyi t beoove to ake fll use f a the conventional a cveta

set vaabl o the job

2011 Putin Medvedev study.pdf

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