2011 July - World Wheat Supply Demand Situation

8/6/2019 2011 July - World Wheat Supply Demand Situation

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World Wheat Supply andDemand SituationJuly 2011

Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimatesreleased July 12, 2011. Projections will change over the course of the yeardepending on weather and other developments.


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Top Factors Affecting the Global Wheat Market in 2011/12

1. 2011/12 Production up, third largest wheat crop on record at 662 MMT Global supplies reach record 852 MMT; 1.0 MMT greater than previous record in 2009/10

Black Sea production rebounds, reaching 101 MMT compared to 81.0 MMT in 2010/112. Consumption sets record for fourth consecutive year, up 2% from 2010/11

3. World wheat trade projected at 130 MMT, third largest amount on record

4. 2011 US plantings up 5% from 2010 US production falls due to lower yields; falls to 57.3 MMT from 60.1 MMT in 2010/11

Dry conditions reduce HRW production, falls 22% to 21.5 MMT

5. Cool temperatures delay spring wheat plantings in North America Canadian planting 86% complete compared to average 96% for second week of June

US spring wheat planting 88% complete compared to average 100% through June 12

US durum plantings fall 34% from previous year

6. EU production falls due to drought conditions in Western Europe EU production at 132.1 MMT, down 3% from 2010/11

7. World ending stocks fall 4% to 182 MMT Chinas ending stocks (64.6 MMT) account for 35% of total

Rest of World ending stocks fall from 130 MMT to 118 MMT

8. Competition for acres intensifies; U.S. corn stocks at 15-year low Environmental Protection Agency increases ethanol blend

Global corn demand reaches record 874 MMT


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Production, Consumption and Trade 2010/11 USDA estimates global production at 662 MMT, 3rd largest on record

Up 2% (14.2 MMT) from 2010/11 and 3% (17.7 MMT) greater than 5-year average Black Sea production rebounds to 101 MMT, up from 81.0 in 2010/11

Indian production reaches record 84.0 MMT, up 4% from 2010/11

Consumption to set record: up 2% Consumption rises 13.0 MMT to record 670 MMT

Trade expected to increase by 2% World trade projected at 130 MMT, third largest amount on record

Import projections Middle East up 4% to 13.8 MMT

Export forecasts Black Sea exports rebound, reaching 27.7 MMT, up from 13.9 MMT in 2010/11

Russian exports reach 12.0 MMT, up from 4.0 MMT in 2010/11 but below 5-year average of 12.8 MMT

EU exports fall 32%, from 22.0 MMT in 2010/11 to 15.0 MMT


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Stocks and Price 2010/11

World beginning stocks fall, but second highest inpast 5 years

Beginning stocks down 4% (8.3 MMT) from 2010/11 US beginning stocks at 23.4 MMT, 45% above 5-year average of 16.1 MMT

Global ending stocks fall 4% to 182 MMT

China ending stocks reach 64.6 MMT, accounting for 35% of global endingstocks

Rest of World stocks fall from 130 MMT to 118 MMT

U.S. farm gate prices forecasted at record

$6.60 to $8.00 /bushel ($243-$294/MT)**Average U.S. farm gate price, marketing year weighted average


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World Production and Use

648

662

657670

500

520

540

560

580

600

620

640

660

680

700

02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12

MMT

Production Use


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Supplies in Top Exporting Countries*

*Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan

60 70 45 6476 65

318 299 308

358 328 337

378369

353

423 403 402

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12

Beginning Stocks Production


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World Wheat Supply and Demand

09/10 10/11 11/12MMT

SUPPLY: Beginning Stocks 167 198 190

Production 684 648 662

Supply Total 851 847 852

TRADE: Exports/Imports 136 128 130

DEMAND Food & Seed 535 539 547

Feed & Residual 118 117 123

Use Total 653 657 670

ENDING STOCKS: 198 190 182


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Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27.Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan.

World Beginning Stocks

5531

48 56 48

17

13

2125

22

132

82

97

117120

0

50

100

150

200

250

91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12

MMT

Historical Five Major Exporters Black Sea Others


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Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio

*Ending stocks

35

20

3029

27

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12


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World Ending Stocks

Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27.Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan.

47.9 42.2

22.020.0

59.955.4

60.164.6

0

50

100

150

200

250

01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12

M

MT

Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Other China

182187


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Global Ending Stocks and Price

42 52 42 31 42

2431

1913

20

71

99

108

82

120

322

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

50

100

150

200

250

83/84 87/88 91/92 95/96 99/00 03/04 07/08 11/12

MM

T

Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Rest of World HRW price


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World and U.S. WheatSupply and Demand

Major Exporters

Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class

Outlook


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Canada Ending Stocks

9.7

4.4

6.5

7.8

6.2

4.8

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12

MMT


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Australia Situation

3.6 4.1 4.2

21.9

26.0 25.0

17.5

17.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12

M

MT

Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use


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Australia Ending Stocks

5.4

9.4

4.03.6

4.1 4.24.3

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12

MMT


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Argentina Situation

1.3 1.4 2.5

11.0

15.0

15.0

8.0

9.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12

M

MT



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Argentina Ending Stocks

0.4

0.6

2.4

1.31.4

2.52.6

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12

MMT


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EU-27 Situation

18.9 16.0 11.7

138.7

135.7132.1

22.015.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12

MM

T



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EU-27 Ending Stocks

27.5

23.4

14.2

16.0

11.712.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12

MMT


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Black Sea Region Situation

The Black Sea Region includes the Former Soviet Union, excluding the Baltic States

Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black SeaRegion

21.3 25.3 22.0

113.9

81.099.5

13.9

27.7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12

MMT



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Black Sea Exports

18.6

4.0

12.0

9.3

3.7

7.5

7.9

5.4

7.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12

M

MT

Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan


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Black Sea Ending Stocks

15.6

11.4

13.0

25.3

22.0

20.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12

MM

T


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U.S. Situation

13.417.9

26.6 23.4

63.8

60.4

60.1

57.3

24.0

35.0

31.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

93/94 96/97 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12

M

MT

Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic Use


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U.S. Ending Stocks

13.414.7

12.4

17.9

26.6

23.4

18.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12

MMT


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World and U.S. Wheat

Supply and Demand

Major Exporters


Outlook


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Major World Wheat Importers(from all origins)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.011.0

Egypt EU-27 Brazil Indonesia Japan Algeria Nigeria S. Korea Iraq Mexico

MM

T

10/11 11/12


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Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat5-year average

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

MMT


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Source: USDA FAS export sales report July 8, 2011

Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat2010/11 vs. 2011/12

(year-to-date)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

M

MT

2010/11 2011/12


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Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat2009/10 vs. 2010/11

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

MMT

2009/10 2010/11

Source: USDA FAS export sales report June 9, 2011


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Supply and Demand

Major Exporters

Import Demand

U.S. Situation by Class

Outlook


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U.S. Wheat Plantings by Class

*Source: USDA Acreage Report, June 30, 2011

53.656.4

28.6 29.1

13.0 12.9

5.38.3

4.24.42.61.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

Million

Acres

HRW HRS SRW White Durum


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U.S. Hard Red Winter

10 11

2822

17

14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12

M

MT

Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports


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U.S. Hard Red Spring

65

1614

9 7

0

5

10

15

20

25

06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12

MMT



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U.S. Soft Red Winter

7

5

612

34

0

5

10

15

20

06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12

M

MT



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U.S. White

2 2

7

8

5

5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12

M

MT



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U.S. Durum

0.9 1.0

2.9

1.7

0.9

1.0

1.2

0.8

0

1

2

3

4

5

06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12

MMT



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U.S. Wheat Sales by Class(year-to-date)

Source: USDA FAS export sales report July 8, 2011

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

HRW HRS White SRW Durum

M

MT

2011/12 2010/11


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U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks by Class

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

HRW HRS SRW SWW Durum

M

MT

05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 11/12


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U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand

10/11 11/12 10/11 11/12 10/11 11/12

Beginning Stocks 10.5 10.5 6.4 5.0 6.6 4.6

Production 27.7 21.5 15.5 13.7 6.5 12.5

Imports 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7Supply Total 38.2 32.1 22.7 19.6 13.8 17.8

Domestic Use 11.0 12.8 8.4 7.5 6.3 8.3

Exports 16.7 13.9 9.3 7.3 2.9 4.5

Use Total 27.7 26.6 17.7 14.9 9.2 12.8Ending Stocks 10.5 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.6 5.0

Stocks-to-Use 38% 20% 29% 32% 50% 39%

HRW HRS SRW

MMT


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U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand

10/11 11/12 10/11 11/12 10/11 11/12

Beginning Stocks 2.2 2.3 1.0 1.0 26.6 23.4

Production 7.5 7.9 2.9 1.7 60.1 57.3

Imports 0.2 0.2 0.9 1.0 2.7 2.7Supply Total 9.9 10.4 4.8 3.6 89.4 83.5

Domestic Use 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.4 30.9 33.9

Exports 5.0 4.8 1.2 0.8 35.0 31.3

Use Total 7.5 7.6 3.8 3.3 65.9 65.2

Ending Stocks 2.3 2.8 1.0 0.4 23.4 18.3

Stocks-to-Use 31% 36% 25% 12% 36% 28%

White Durum Total


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U.S. FOB Gulf Prices

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11

$/Me

tricTon

HRW ords HRS 14% SRW


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U.S. FOB PNW Prices

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600


$/MetricTon

HRW 11.5% HRS 14% SW


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SRW and Soft White Prices

100

150

200

250

300

350

400


$/MetricTon

SW SRW


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U.S. Gulf Basis Prices

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11

$/MetricTon

HRS 13.5 HRW 12 SRW


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U.S. PNW Basis Prices

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11

$/Me

tricTon

HRS 14 HRW 12


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Supply and Demand

Major Exporters


Outlook


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U.S. Wheat Area and Production

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

92/93 95/96 98/99 01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11

MT/

hectares

Production(MMT)a

ndHarvestedArea(m

h)

Harvested Area Production Yield


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U.S. Crop Planted Area Comparison

31.2

24.5

23.9

21.7

22.8

30.0

37.9

35.2

35.737.4

23.4

26.2

31.4

31.9

30.4

20.0

22.0

24.0

26.0

28.0

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

90/91 93/94 96/97 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12*

MillionH

ectares

Wheat Corn Soybeans

*Source: USDA Prospective Plantings Report, March 31, 2011


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World CornProduction, Use and Trade

820872843

878

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12

Tra

de

(M

MT)

Pro

duc

tionand

Use

(MMT)

Production Use Trade


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World SoybeansProduction, Use and Trade

264

261

254

263

77

93 9398

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12

Tra

de

(MMT)

Pro

duc

tionan

dUse

(MMT)

Production Use Trade


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Ocean Freight Rates for Grains

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

7/1

0/09

8/1

0/09

9/1

0/09

10/1

0/09

11/1

0/09

12/1

0/09

1/1

0/10

2/1

0/10

3/1

0/10

4/1

0/10

5/1

0/10

6/1

0/10

7/1

0/10

8/1

0/10

9/1

0/10

10/1

0/10

11/1

0/10

12/1

0/10

1/1

0/11

2/1

0/11

3/1

0/11

4/1

0/11

5/1

0/11

6/1

0/11

7/1

0/11

$/me

tricton

PNW to Japan Gulf to Middle East Great Lakes to East Med Gulf to West Africa

S


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Summary

Global production climbs 2% Production reaches 662 MMT; third largest on record

Global ending stocks decrease 4% Stock-to-use ratio falls to 27%, down 2 percentage points from

2010/11 and lowest since 2008/09 (26%)

China ending stocks account for 35% of world total

World exporters Black Sea production rebounds from 2010/11

World trade increases with growing demand

2011 July - World Wheat Supply Demand Situation

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Transcript of 2011 July - World Wheat Supply Demand Situation