2011 jan platts_pres
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Transcript of 2011 jan platts_pres
Drivers for Growth in Automotive Aluminum Demand
Jack Pell and JD RuttHydro
on behalf ofThe Aluminum Association,
Aluminum Transportation Group (ATG)
The Aluminum Association’s Aluminum Transportation Group
(ATG)
www.aluminumintransportation.org 2
Aluminum Growth Factors to Consider:• Existing aluminum applications
• Impact of federal regulations
• Weight reduction and fuel economy improvement
• Weight reduction and energy consumption
• Benefits to alternative/electric vehicle technology
• A future with automotive aluminum
11.3%
10.0%8.8%
7.8%6.9%
6.1%
5.1%4.5%3.9%
2.1%2.0%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010F 2015F 2020F
Aluminum Share as Percentage of Curb Weight
Auto Aluminum ContentNorth America - Percent of Curb Weight
Calendar Year
77 Pounds
394 Pounds
Historical Forecast
50 Years of Uninterrupted Automotive Aluminum Growth
334
Pounds
Existing Aluminum Applications
• Today’s vehicle contains about 10% by weight• Many vehicles in the U.S. fleet use 400-500 pounds of aluminum• More than 95% of automotive aluminum is recycled
Body Holds the Largest Weight Reduction Opportunity
6
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Currently AluminumAluminum Opportunity
•Shift to aluminum saves 550 lbs. direct and secondary weight
•10% better fuel economy
•No compromise to safety
•No downsizing required
•Better performance
•Lower lifetime CO2
KM
T A
lum
inum
Source: The Aluminum Association
• April 2010: the Obama Administration established regulation that, starting with 2012 model year vehicles, requires automakers to reduce fleet-wide greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 5% every year and strengthen fuel economy each year, reaching an estimated 34.1 mpg for the combined industry-wide fleet for model year 2016
• October 2010: the Obama Administration announced next steps toward establishing tighter fuel economy and emissions standards for 2017 through 2025 model-year vehicles
7
U.S. Faces Stricter Fuel Economy Regs
• Weight reduction will be part of the solution to meet the new regulation bench marks– Nissan recently announced plans to start
reductions at 15% – GM recently announced plans to trim 500 lbs. from
its light trucks by 2016, and by the early 2020s, may cut as much as 1,000 lbs. per truck
• Aluminum already offers great weight saving for less CO2 than competing materials
8
Down Weighting Key to Solution
Weight Savings Translates to Fuel Economy Improvement
Kilo
gram
s
Mass of Body-in-White Fuel Economy Improvement
Mile
s pe
r Gal
lon
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Steel (baseline) High Strength Steel Intensive
Aluminum Intensive
Source: ika - University of Aachen and the European Aluminium Association (EAA)
Source: The Aluminum Association calculated based on ika mass reduction data; assumes 23% secondary weight savings
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Steel (baseline-30 mpg)
High Strength Steel Intensive
Aluminum Intensive
2.7 MPG Improvement
9
• The aluminum industry has cut greenhouse gas factory emissions per ton of aluminum produced by 30% since 1990, and aims to be carbon neutral by 2030
• Aluminum has lower life cycle CO2 emissions than steel or high strength steel
• 20 lbs of CO2 is saved for every pound used
Greatest Potential with Smallest CO2 Footprint
10Source: Magnesium Industry Life Cycle Study
Down Weighting Creates Value for Alternative Powertrains
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
Baseline Diesel Hybrid
Steel Body Aluminum Body
Cost per 1 MPG Increase
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
Baseline Diesel Hybrid
Steel Body Aluminum Body
Percent Increase in MPG
Source: IBIS Associates 11
12
Objective:• Evaluate the impact of vehicle weight reduction on electric
vehicle performance, range and battery size
Results:• Reduced battery cost: $900 - $1,950 (@ $750/KWh)• EV weight reduction potential: 19%• 10% mass reduction: 4 - 6% reduction in battery size• Expected aluminum structure cost premium: $630
20% reduced vehicle mass yields a 20% range increase
$3 Battery Cost Savings Per $1 Invested in Electric Vehicles
PEV and PHEV Study
Source: Ricardo
Time for Down Weighting is Now• A necessity in the holistic approach to meeting U.S.
and global regulations without sacrificing safety or functionality
• The only fuel saving technology that complements advanced powertrains
• Offers more CO2 and fuel savings than other materials
• Transition can happen faster than alternative powertrain breakthroughs while preserving U.S. jobs
Drivers for Growth in Automotive Aluminum Demand
Thank You
www.aluminumintransportation.org