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2011 INDUSTRIAL AND WAREHOUSE MARKET Moscow
MAIN POINTS • 2011witnessedafour-yearmaximumintermsofthevolumeoftransactionsmade
(990,000sqm)andaneight-yearminimumintermsofthenewwarehousespacecommissioned(366,000sqm).
• TheshareofvacantareainClassAwarehousesdroppedfrom5%to0.5%(asofJanuary2012).Asofthebeginningof2012,totalvacantareaintheconstructedpremisesdoesnotexceed50thousandsqm.
• RentalratesforClassAfacilitiesgrewby11%in2011to$130-135persqmp.a.
OVERVIEW
2011 INDUSTRIAL AND WAREHOUSE MARKET Moscow
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Key Events
• 2011setafour-yearrecordintermsoftransactionvolumebothforMoscow,wheretake-upofhigh-qualitywarehousepremisesstoodat990,000sqm,andforRussianonthewhole,withthetotaltake-upvolumebeinginexcessof1,350thousandsqm.
• Inthefirsthalfof2011,anumberofbiginvestmenttransactionsweremadeonthewarehousemarketinMoscowandMoscowRegion:HinesGlobalREITacquireda75,000sqmwarehousefacilityinKhimkyfromAIGEuropeanRealEstatePartners.Thiswasthefund’sfirstacquisitioninRussia.Thevalueof
thetransactionscouldbeashighas$80million.
• Apodofinvestors(representedbyPPFinvestmentfundandCEOofGiffelsManagementRussiaChrisVanRietwithhispartners)acquiredSouthGateindustrialparkfromGroveInternationalPartners(controllingGiffelsManagementRussia,theprojectdeveloper).Thisdealwasvaluedatsome$90million.
• ABritishdeveloperRavenRussiaobtainedcontroloverthreeconstructioncompanies,thusvirtuallybecomingthesoleownerofPulkovo(36thousandsq.moftotalarea)aswellasNoginsk-Vostochniylogisticpark(230,000sq.m
oftotalarea)inMoscowRegion.RavenRussiausedtoownthoseprojectsjointlywithEspro,adeveloper.
• Twomajordesign&buildtransactionsweremadein2011.PNKGroupwascontractedtoconstructa44,000sqmlogisticcentreforDIXYGroup.AsdirectedbyDixy,thiswillbedividedintoanumberoftemperaturezones.PNKGroupwillalsoconstructa50,000sqmwarehouseforCentrObuvatPNKVnukovofacility.Thiswillbethelargestwarehouseevertobeconstructedtothecustomer’srequirementsforfurtherselling.KnightFrankprovidedadviceforthisdeal.
• InApril2011,adealwasannounced
MOSCOW REGION WAREHOUSE MARKET REPORT: 2011 RESULTS
Main indicators Class А Class В Trend*
Totalsupply(ClassesА,В,С),thousandsqm 10950
TotalqualitysupplyinclassesAandB,thousandsqm
4610 1912
Deliveryin2011,thousandsqm 328.9 37.3
Expecteddeliveryin2012,thousandsqm700
Leaseandsaletransactionsin2011,thousandsqm990
Averagevacancyrate,% 0.5 2.0
Askingrentalrates,$persqmperannum** 130-140 105-125
Operatingexpenses,$persqmperannum 35-50 25-50
*Ascomparedtothepreviousyear
**WithoutVAT,operationalcostsandutilitybills
Source:KnightFrankResearch,2012
Vyacheslav KholopovDirectorofIndustrial,WarehouseandLand,KnightFrank
" Strong activity coming from the tenants
coupled with the low delivery resulted
in virtually all premises available in the
constructed warehouses has been washed
out from the market in the first half of
2011. This caused a comeback
to the preliminary agreement model.
As a result, most of the premises
under construction were rented
or purchased by the end of the year.
We expect that new projects
scheduled for commissioning in 2012
would hardly be able to saturate
the market, and a slight shortage
of premises will be observed throughout
2012, particularly in the first half
of the year. This will, in its turn,
facilitate further development
of the design&build market".
www.knightfrank.ru
3
tobethelargestoneonthepost-crisiswarehouserentalmarket:X5RetailGroupleasedover75,000sqmatRavenRussiaNoginsklogisticpark.
• Anotherrecordwassetinthe3PLsegment:Alidileasedanareaof40,000sqmatPNKChekhov.Thisappearedtobethelargestleasetransactionmadebyalogisticoperatorsince2008.KnightFrankprovidedadviceforthistransaction.
• Whendiscussinganorder“OnAdoptionoftheInvestmentPlan–“DevelopmentofMoscowRegion’sTransportandLogisticNetworkin2011-2015”,adecisionwastakenbytheMoscowRegionGovernmenttoconstructatleast20logisticcentresalongtheCentralRingRoadthatisunderconstruction.
Supply
Asofendof2011,totalhigh-qualitywarehouseareainMoscowandMoscowRegionstoodat6,522thousandsqm.2011setan8-yearantirecordintermsofthevolumeofnewhigh-qualitywarehousescommissioned–
366,000sqmClassAwarehousesaccountingfor90%ofthisfigure.Thisresultedfromalowerdemandforwarehousesin2008-2009and,consequently,fewerspeculativewarehousesconstructed.
Afterdemandstartedtorecoverinlate2010,investorsanddeveloperswouldannouncetheirplanstoconstructnewspeculativewarehousesandresumesuspendedprojects.However,commissioningofmanyfacilitieswasmovedto2012:outof600,000sqmannounced,slightlymorethan60%wereactuallycommissioned.Asaresult,asubstantialgrowthinnewpremisescanonlybeexpectedin2012.
Key Projects Commissioned in 2011
Property Name Property Address Total area, sq m Developer
PNK-Vnukovo BorovskoyeHwy,20kmfromMKAD 80,000 PNKGroup
RavenRussia-Кlimovsk SimferopolskoyeHwy,21kmfromMKAD 55,000 RavenRussia
PNK-Chekhov,Bld8 SimferopolskoyeHwy,49kmfromMKAD 39,500 PNKGroup
InfrastoyBykovo NovoriazanskoyeHwy,19kmfromMKAD 34,500 InfrastoyBykovo
BelayaDacha NovoriazanskoyeHwy,4kmfromMKAD 32,000 HinesInternational,BelayaDacha
MSK-SU9,phase3 NovoriazanskoyeHwy,1kmfromMKAD 22,500 MSK-SU9
Krekshino BetweenMinskoyeHwyandKievskoyrhwy,24kmfromMKAD
20,000 RosEvroDevelopment
CarloPazolini KievskoyeHwy,3kmfromMKAD 20,000 CarloPazolini
Khlebnikovo DmitrovskoyeHwy,8kmfromMKAD 20,000 Khlebnikovo
Source:KnightFrankResearch,2012
Source: Knight Frank Research, 2012
Average warehouse construction costs$ per sq. m (incl. VAT)
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2011 INDUSTRIAL AND WAREHOUSE MARKET Moscow
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Anotherconsequenceofthe2008-2009situationwasreducednumberofdevelopersofferingwarehousefacilities.Asaresult,thebulkofnewwarehouses(72%)weresoldbylargerdevelopersspecializedindevelopingindustrialandwarehousecomplexes.Theyconstructedatleast50thousandsqmofhigh-qualitywarehousepremisesforleaseorsele.
Thissituationwasdrivenbyseveralfactors.Firstly,itismoredifficultfornewplayerstoraiselowinterestratefinancingfortheirprojects,andthisinevitablyincreasesconstructioncosts.Secondly,largerdeveloperscancutconstructioncostsusingtheirexpertiseandscaleeffect.Theycanusemosteffectivesolutionswhilemaintaininghighquality.Maturedevelopershaveconstructioncoststhatareonaverage10-20%lowerthanthoseofnewmarketplayers.Thirdly,constructioncostsstartedtogrowin2011afterthedownturnobservedin2009causedbycheaperconstructionmaterialsandlowerlabourcosts.Bytheendof2011,constructioncostsreachedtheirpre-crisislevel($800-850persqm,incl.VAT).
Mosthigh-qualitywarehouseswereconcentratedinthenorthandsouth(over56%).Justlikein2011,greatestgrowthinnewpremisesofferedcamefromthesouthandsouth-west.Inadditiontothis,quitealotofnewsupplycamefromthesouth-eastwithtotalvolumesgrowingtherebyover60%.
Onecouldalsoclaimthatpotentialinvestorsarealsogettingmoreandmoreinterestedinthewarehousessegment.In2011,investmentstotalledalmost$400million.MajorinvestorswereRavenRussia,
Supply: geographic profile
Source:KnightFrankResearch,2012
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ofUK,andHinesGlobalREIT.Potentialinvestmentopportunitiesavailableonthemarketin2012couldbevaluedatover$1billion.
Demand
Throughout2011,therewasahighdemandforhigh-qualitywarehouses.Bytheyear-end,thetotalvolumesoftransactionsmadeinMoscowRegionexceeded990,000sqm(85%offacilitiesbelongtoClassA)whichisthepastfouryears’maximum.Thisisa29%increasecomparedto2010andanalmosttwofoldgrowthover2008.
Eventhoughtake-upappearedtobeslightlyhigherin2007thanin2011,onecouldclaimthatmarketrecoveryisalreadythecasewiththemarketgettingmore“mature”:mostcompanieshavealreadymovedtofacilitiesofhigherquality.
Themarketsituationcausedarapidreductionofvacantarea.Thiswaspartiallycausedbythelowvolumeofnewareacommissioned:developerswerenotpreparedforsuchastronggrowthindemandwithvirtuallynoprojectslaunchedin2009-2010.Asaresult,theshareofvacantclassAwarehouseareafellto0.5%(below50,000sq.m).Moreover,somepremisesunderconstructionhavealreadybeenreservedunderpreliminaryleaseagreements.Thiswascausedbythefactthat65%ofthecontractsduringthepasthalf-year
Source: Knight Frank Research, 2012
Demand, absorption and vacant areathousand sq m
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 F
New construction, thousand sq m Volume of closed deals, thousand sq m
Vacancy rate (Class A), thousand sq mRetailers
Other manufactors and distributors
Third party logistics providers (3PL)
FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods)
Other
Source: Knight Frank Research, 2012
Transactions as broken down by renter or buyer profile%
2,4%
37,1%
14,8%
17,3%
28,3%
Take-up: geographical profile
Source:KnightFrankResearch,2012
2011 INDUSTRIAL AND WAREHOUSE MARKET Moscow
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weremadewhileunderconstruction.
Mosttransactionshaveretailoperatorsinvolvedwhoaretraditionalchampionsintermsofwarehousetake-up,havingwonthischampionshipfromlogisticoperatorsin2009.Itisworthmentioningthattheshareoflogisticoperatorsgrewoverthepreviousperiod(2009-2010)to166,000sqm.
Geographically,greatesttake-upvolumeswererecordedinthesouthandsouth-east.Thisispartiallycausedbymoredenseconcentrationofnewpremisesofferedtothemarketin2011.
Allinall,totalvolumeoftransactionsmadeinMoscowRegionin2011appearedtobethreetimeshigherthantheareacommissioned.Thistrendwasvalidforallgeographicalareas,exceptforthesouth-west,achampionintermsofspacecommissionedin2011;thedeliverywasslightlyaheadofabsorption.
2011witnessedmoremajortransactions(over30,000sqm)madewhichisalsoanindicatorofmarketrecoveryandpositivetrends.Particularattentionshouldbepaidtothelargesttransactionforthepastfouryears–rentalagreementforawarehouseatNoginsk-Vostochnylogisticpark(RavenRussiaactingasadeveloper)byX5RetailGroup.Totalarearentedamountedto75,700sqm.
Anotherimportanttrendobservedin2011wasthehighestnumberandvolumeofdesign&buildtransactions.Thiswascausedprimarilybystrongreductionofvacantareaavailableatspeculativewarehouses.Whencustomerswereseekingtorentbigwarehouses,theywouldfaceaproblemofshortsupply.Additionally,anumberofcompaniesstartedtoplacespecificrequirementsforthepremisesrented.Shouldtheyfailtofindaproperwarehouse,theywouldoptfor“design&build”construction.Outoffivetransactionsover40,000sqmfacilitiescommissionedmadein2011,twoonesfollowedadesign&buildpatternwhichisakindofrecordforthismarketastherehas
Source: Knight Frank Research, 2012
Number and share of the transactions over 30,000 sq munits
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Number of 30+ thousand sq. m Transactions Share of 30+ thousand sq. m Transactions
%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0
Source: Knight Frank Research, 2012
Growth of the share (total area) of design&build transactions %
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 П
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beennosuchbigdealofthekindbefore.
ThoseprojectswillbeconstructedatPNK-Vnukovowarehousecomlexinthesouth-west.Thosedealsareexpectedtoraisetheaveragetransactionvolumeinthisareato21,000sqm,twicehigherthananaveragetransactionmadeinMoscowandMoscowRegion(approx.11thousandsqm).Anotherrecordsetbythemarketin2011wasthevolumeofareasoldwithitssharereaching15.5%(143thousandsq.m),anearlyfourfoldincreaseyear-on-year.
Commercial Terms and Conditions
2011appearedtobemoreofthe“handlords’market”.Asubstantialgrowthindemandandlimitedsupplyhelpedownerstoraiserentalratesthroughouttheyear.Itismoreandmoredifficultforcustomerstonegotiate.Asaresult,bythebeginningof2012,askingrentalratesforClassAwarehouseswereintherangeof$130-135persqm(withoutVATandoperationalcosts).Weexpectthataskingrentalrateswillgrowslightlyinthefirsthalfof2012to$135-140persqmandwillstabilizeinthesecondhalfoftheyear.
AscomparedtomostEuropeancountries,RussiaisoneofthefewnationswhererentalratesforclassAwarehousesdemonstratedasteadygrowththroughout2011.Asofthebeginningof2012,MoscowrankedseventhnumberamongEuropeancitiesintermsof
Average transaction volume: geographical profile, thousand sq m
Source:KnightFrankResearch,2012
Source: Knight Frank Research, 2012
Warehouse rental rate profile $ per sq m per annum
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 F
Class А, $ per sq m per annum Class B, $ per sq m per annum
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
2011 INDUSTRIAL AND WAREHOUSE MARKET Moscow
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rentalrates.GiventhecompllicatedeconomicenvironmentinEuropeandcurrentdynamics,onecouldexpectMoscowtobecomeoneoftheTop5Europeancitiesintermsofwarehouserentalrates.
Leaseagreementswereusuallymadein2011inMoscowandMoscowRegionforatermof5-7years.Supplyofhigh-qualitywarehousepremisesisprimarilyfocusedoncompaniesreadytoenterintolong-termleaseagreements(5andmoreyears)atratesnominatedinUSdollarsandtotalareaof5,000andmoresqm(morepreferably,10,000andmoresqm)–forMoscowandSt.Petersburgregions.Amoreconvenientoptionforatenantseekingawarehouseforashorterperiodoftimeistocooperatewithlogisticoperatorsratherthanlease.
Forecast
WeexpectthatmostofthepremiseswillonlybeofferedtotheMoscowRegionmarketinthesecondhalfof2012.Atotalofsome905thousandsqmofnewspeculativewarehouseshasbeenannouncedtobecommissionedduringthisyear,andwebelievethatabout700thousandsqmwillactuallybesupplied.
2012,anditsfirsthalfinparticular,willcontinuetodemonstratedeficitofhigh-qualitysupplycausingmostofthetransactionstobemadebywayofpreliminaryleaseagreementsforpremisesunderconstruction.Givenasimilarlevelofactivitycomingfromtenantandquiteastablepoliticalandeconomicsituation,vacantareawillnotexceed1-2%bytheendof2012,meaningthatnewwarehouseprojectscouldbeexpectedthisyear,particularlythoseimplementedbylargedevelopers.
Rentalrateswillcontinuetoslightlygrowinthefirsthalfof2012.However,inspiteofthelowvolumesofvacantareaavailable,thiswillbebalancedbythetenants’limitedpaymentcapacity.Inthesecondhalfoftheyear,therateswillstabilizeasalotofsupplywillemerge.Asaresult,askingrentalratesforClassAwarehousescouldaverage$135-140persqm(withoutVATandoperationalcosts)bytheendof2012.
Moreover,moredesign&buildtransactionsareexpectedtobemade.Weassumethat20-25%oftotalabsorptionvolumeswillhavetodowithconstructionofwarehousestothecustomer’sspecificrequirements.
3PL Market
In2011wasrecordedthehighershare(17%)oflogisticoperatorsinthetotalvolumeoftransactionsmade,5percentagepointshigherthanin2010(166,000vs.113,000sqm).Thisisanindicatorofrecoveryofthe3PLmarketthatsufferedmostduringthecrisis.
Positivechangeswerecausedbyanumberoffactors.Firstly,thereisaremarkablegrowthindemandfromexistingcustomers.Secondly,somecompaniescannotleasetheirownwarehousesduetotheshortageofwarehouseareaavailable,andtheyengage3PLoperators.
Inthissituation,logisticoperatorscanselectcustomersthataremostreliable.
Activateddemandfor3PLservicestriggeredincreasedcostsoffreightstorageandhandlingofferedbylogisticcompanies.Anotherfactorcontributingtohigherlogisticcostswashigherwarehouserentalrates.
Weexpectfurthergrowthofpricesin2012,primarilydrivenbyhigherwarehouserentalrates.Thisgrowthcanreach7-10%bytheendoftheyear.Anotherreasonofincreasingpricesfor3PLservicesisthegrouthoftherentalratesforthewarehousespaces.
Source: Knight Frank Research, 2012
European cities in terms of warehouse rental rates for Class A warehouses$ per sq m per annum
250
200
150
100
50
0
L
ondo
n
Zuri
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Gene
va
Oslo
Stoc
khol
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Hel
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Mos
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Edin
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Barc
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Fran
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Vien
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Land Market
Currently,greatdemandforcommerciallandcomesfromlargeretailoperatorsandcompaniesplanningconstructionofmanufacturingandlogisticfacilities.
LargeretailcompaniesarefocusedonthelandsiteslocatedalongDmitrovskoe,Yaroslavlskoe,Simferopolskoe,Mozhaiskoe,Minskoe,NewRigaandVolokolamskoehighways,andinparticular–ontherightsidesofthosehighways(ifdrivingfromMoscow)andwithin20kmofftheMoscowRingRoad.
Inaddition,thereisahighdemandforlandintendedforcommercialconstruction(especially,forindustrialpurposes)alongNewRiga,LeningradskoeandDmitrovskoehighways.ConstructionoflogisticfacilitiesthereisdrivenbythecargotrafficcomingfromSt.PetersburgandFinland.Industriallandofferedthereisverylimitedcausingunsatisfieddemand.
Itisworthnotingthatanumberofspecializeddevelopersengagedinwarehouseconstructionarecurrentlyconsideringoptionsforexpandingtheirownlandassetstosupporttheirconstructionactivityin2013-2015.
Themarketsituationisimproving,buttheaveragelandpriceisstillcomparableto2009-2010afterthefallinearly2009.Thepriceforindustriallandplotssituated10-30kmofftheMoscowRingRoadaverages$700,000perhectar.Forlandplotslocatedonthefirstlinealongmajorhighwayswithin10kmofftheMoscowRingRoad,thepricevariesintherangeof$1-2millionperhectares.Oneofthetransactionsmadein2011wasacquisitionofa14hectarlandplotalongYaroslavlhighway,15kmofftheMoscowRingRoad.Thepricewas$825,000perhectar.
Onecouldexpectfurtherincreaseinthevolumeoflandplotssoldatthebackofquiteafavourablemarketsituation:landpricesarequitelow,andmanycompanieshavesufficientfinancialresourcesinplacetoinvestintheirowndevelopmentonthewholeandacquisitionoflandinparticular.Weexpectanincreaseinthevolumesoflandtransactionswithaslightpricegrowth(5-10%)inthefirsthalfof2012.
Industrial Park Market
Forseveralrecentyears,quitealotofattentionhasbeenpaidbothbythemarketplayersandgovernmentauthoritiestoarelativelynewtypeofindustrialrealproperty–industrialparksthatareterritoriesorganizedspeciallyforhousingnewmanufacturingfacilities.Theyhaveappropriateutilitylinesinplace,
allrelatedinfrastructureaswellasproperadministrativeandlegalenvironment.Thesearemanagedbyspecializedcompanies.TotalareaoccupiedbyRussianindustrialparks(bothexistingandprojected)amountstosome62,800hectares.
Industrialparksaremostlygreenfieldprojects(69%),i.e.preparedsitesthatusedtobe,asarule,agriculturalfarmingland,withorwithoutrelatedutilitylinesavailable.Brownfieldindustrialparks,i.e.sitesusedbefore
forindustrial,constructionorotherpurposes,accountfor31%.
ItisworthmentioningthatindustrialparksarecurrentlyundergoingacertificationprocesswiththeRussianIndustrialParkAssociation.Witheffectfrom2012,theRussianMinistryofEconomicDevelopmentwillnotacceptrequisitionsforstatebudgetfinancialsupportfromindustrialparkslackingsuchacertificate.
Source: Knight Frank Research, 2012
Share of logistic companies in total take-up%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Brownfield
Source: Knight Frank Research, 2012
Share of brownfield and greenfield industrial parks%
31%
69%
Greenfield
Source: Knight Frank Research, 2012
3PL services price dynamicsrub. per day
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 F
Materials-handiling operations, rub. for 1 p/s per day
Storage, rub. for 1 p/s per day
Piking, rub. per 1 box
OVERVIEW
EuropeAustriaBelgiumCzech RepublicFranceGermanyIrelandItalyMonacoPolandPortugalRomaniaRussiaSpainSwitzerlandThe NetherlandsUKUkraine
AfricaBotswanaKenyaMalawiNigeriaTanzaniaUgandaZimbabweZambiaSouth Africa
Middle EastBahrainUAE
Asia PacificAustraliaCambodiaChinaIndiaIndonesiaMalaysiaNew ZealandSingaporeSouth KoreaThailandVietnam
Americas & CanadaBermudaCaribbeanCanadaUSA
Office Real EstateStanislav TikhonovPartner [email protected]
Warehouse Real Estate, landViacheslav Kholopov Director [email protected]
Retail Real EstateSergey Gipsh Regional Retail Director, Partner [email protected]
Professional Consulting ServicesKonstantin RomanovPartner, Director [email protected]
Elite Residential Real EstateElena YurgenevaDirector [email protected]
Financial Markets and InvestingEvgeniy SemyonovPartner, Director [email protected]
Valuation ServicesOlga Kochetova Director [email protected]
Saint PetersburgNikolai Pashkov
General Director [email protected]
KyivYaroslava ChapkoBusiness Development Director
Marketing, PR, Market Research, HRMaria KotovaPartner, Executive Director [email protected]
Established in London more than a century ago, Knight Frank is the renowned leader of the international real estate market. Together with Newmark Company, Knight Frank’s strategic partner, the company encompasses 243 offices in 43 countries across six continents.
Knight Frank has been a symbol of professionalism for tens of thousands of clients all over the world for 116 years. After 16 years, Knight Frank has become the leading company in the commercial, warehouse, retail and residential real estate segments of the Russian real estate market. More than 500 large Russian and international companies in Russia have already made use of the company’s services.
This and other Knight Frank overviews can be found on the company website www.knightfrank.ru
© Knight Frank 2011
This overview is published for general information only. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, views and projections presented in this report, no legal responsibility can be accepted by Knight Frank Research or Knight Frank for any loss or damage resultant from the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not necessarily represent the view of Knight Frank in relation to particular properties or projects.
Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is allowed with proper reference to Knight Frank.
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