2011 expo-post fossil-fuel
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Transcript of 2011 expo-post fossil-fuel
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
Preparing for the Post-Fossil Fuel Economy
Jay Warmke Blue Rock Station
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
This program is a registered educational program with the Columbus Green Building Forum and AIA/CES . The content within the program is not created or endorsed by the Columbus Green Building Forum and AIA/CES nor should the content be construed as an approval of any product, building method, or service. Information on the specific content can be addressed at the conclusion on the program, by the Registered Provider.
Credit earned for completing this program will automatically be submitted to the Columbus Green Building Forum. Completion certificates can be obtained by contacting the Provider directly.
Columbus Green Building Forum
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
Learning Objectives:1. Participants will learn how the evolution of fuel over the past century has led to building practices as well as how cities and society has organized itself.2. Participants will be exposed to how these fuel systems (for heating/cooling, electrical, and transportation) will change dramatically over the coming decades.3. Participants will also learn how traditional raw materials used for construction will dramatically increase in cost, if available at all - and what alternatives may arise.4. We will explore how these changes may dramatically impact how buildings are constructed, as well as how society will organize itself (cities, suburbs, green areas, etc).
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
What is Blue Rock Station?
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
What is Blue Rock Station?
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
What is Blue Rock Station?
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
“Pollution is nothing but the resources we are not harvesting. We allow them to disperse because we've been ignorant of their value.”- R. Buckminster Fuller
What is Blue Rock Station?
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
The Year is 1911World population, 1.7 billion40,000 Model T's produced, double from
1910
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
EVERYTHING is about to change AGAIN...
we are entering the
post-petroleum economy
The Year is 2011
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
The GaiaStatic Century?
Leave her like you found her.
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
What are we assuming? In the future, there will be more people on the planet
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
The bottom line...But w hat about Me?
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
8 New “Americas”
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
The Numbers are SO Huge
For Example:US uses 3,741,485,000 MW-h per y
Give everyone a 60 W light bulb and let them use them for 8 hours per day...Add 1,576,800,000 MW-h per y or about 42% of the annual US use
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
What are we assuming? In the future, there will be more people on the planet Things that we use - that cannot be replaced - will eventually begin to run out
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
So, how did we get here?19561974
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In One Generation...
1933
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
What are we assuming? In the future, there will be more people on the planet Things that we use - that cannot be replaced - will eventually begin to run out When more people want a limited something, it will cost more.
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
It is not about running out!• 4% production drop will result
in 177% increase in cost• Estimate 3-10% drop each
year “There will be an average of two-percent
annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three-percent natural decline in production from existing reserves.”
- VP Dick Cheney
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
Wonderful world of compounding...Even at half that rate...• 2010 $3.00 per gallon• 2011 x 139% = $4.17• 2012 x 139% = $5.80• 2013 x 139% = $8.06• 2014 x 139% = $11.20• 2015 x 139% = $15.57
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
What are we assuming? In the future, there will be more people on the planet Things that we use - that cannot be replaced - will eventually begin to run out When more people want a limited something, it will cost more. It’s gonna get worse before it gets better
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
The energy contained in One Barrel of oil contains the equivalent of 25,000 human hours of labor (12 people working 40 hrs per week)Currently 1 barrel = $10025,000 hrs x $8 = $200,000
The Oil Economy
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
2006
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
The Electrical GridWorldwide demand
will double over next 40 years
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So where is it coming from?
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
Coal?2.5%60 years
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
Nuclear?
1977Build one brand new billion-watt nuclear power plant every 1.6 days until the year2050, they will generate only about 8 terawatts.
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
Natural Gas?
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
Peak Oil!
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So, what's Next? "The Americans will always do the Right Thing…after they have exhausted all the Alternatives."
- Winston Churchill
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
Green Technology
Solar Wind BioMass Hydro Ocean Power Hydrogen
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
Wind?• Currently only 2.3% of electricity in US
• 20% by 2030
• Capacity has grown 50% each year
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
Wind?
• 2010 study shows potential of 37 petawatts annually – 9 times the current electrical consumption
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
Solar Power? 2010, installed PV
doubled Costs
dropped 30%
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
Solar Power? US Solar Doubled
again in 2011 69% of
US electricity from solar
by 2050 From Scientific American
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
So where WILL it come from?
Conserva
tionEffic
iencies
Hydroelect
ric
Fossil Fuels
Renewables
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
What if we cut Energy in Half?
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
Green Technology
2007Utility-Scale Wind
Cost of Renewable Energy
Cost of Fossil Fuels
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
Green Technology
2015Residential Solar
Cost of Renewable Energy
Cost of Fossil Fuels
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
Green Technology
Cost of Renewable Energy cut in half every 4 years
Moore'sJay's Law
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
Energy is NOT the Problem
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
Energy is NOT the Problem
It (the Sun) provides enough energy in one minute to supply the world's energy needs for one year. In one day, it provides more energy than our current population would consume in 27 years. In fact, "The amount of solar radiation striking the earth over a three-day period is equivalent to the energy stored in all fossil energy sources." - NASA
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
Ask Yourself...
What will the world look like when energy is free, and everything else is very very expensive?
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
How will it affect...
Transportation?City Structures?Buildings?The Economy?
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
Who am I talking about...
The Rich?
Middle Class?The Poor?
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
Downwardly Mobile...
as globalization begins to level the playing field.
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
Transportation – Short TermTransition to electric – so all buildings require integration of vehicles as load as well as storage devices
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
What about Systems
Smart Grid creating peer-to-peer energy systems.
AC or DC or Wireless?Independent versus
municipal systems ($3.5 million for sewers for 200 homes?)
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
Power Integrated into Everything
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
Transportation – Long TermRuralification of City Centers?
–City clusters for social interaction and resource conservation
– Rural give up access for space. Will virtual packaging change this?
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
So What is Virtual Packaging?Already exists on Internet
–Amazon.com or I-tunes– Is local inventory
required?–Virtual Main Street–Cooperative delivery
So how does this change the design of retail/commercial?
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
What about Virtual Housing?When CGI is cheaper than real... what then?
We live in “fake homes” now, why not take the plunge?
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
Communal HousingIndependent dwellings contain only what we
need, all other “activity rooms” shared.– Result, larger livable space,
smaller units per person» Entertainment Room» Kitchen» Dining Room» Bedroom» Bathroom» Foyer» Study
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
Building Materials
He who has the most garbage, wins (cradle to cradle).
Balance energy efficiency with material costs.
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
Water
Access to water will determine where you live.
– Is Chicago the next great city?
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
The GaiaStatic Century
Pack out what you Pack in...
“May you live in Interesting Times”
» Chinese Curse
© 2011, Blue Rock Station
There will be problems...