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2011 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast Ronnie Johnson Strategic Planning United Launch Alliance veronica.c.johnson@ulalaunch.com Cover art by Phil Smith, The Tauri Group 11 May 2011 Slide 2 2011 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/11/2011 2 Agenda Membership and Methodology Statistics Market Assessment and Trends Summary Slide 3 2011 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/11/2011 3 Working Group Members Ronnie Johnson (2011 GSO Forecast Chair) United Launch Alliance John SloanFAA AST Ken DavidianFAA AST Eric LaursenLockheed Martin Tom MartinPratt & Whitney Rocketdyne Peter StierSea Launch Tom MonroeSpace Systems/Loral Alan KeisnerSpaceX Chris KunstadterXL Insurance Slide 4 2011 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/11/2011 4 Forecast Methodology Purpose To determine the GSO satellite launch market addressable by commercial launch vehicles under the FAAs licensing regime and by the US launch industry in general Requested information from ~90 satellite operators, satellite manufacturers and launch providers, Received responses from 22 companies in 2011 (14 in 2010; 21 in 2009) Individual and comprehensive responses International competitive procurements only Used US inputs only for forecast International inputs used for validation Slide 5 2011 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/11/2011 5 Forecast Methodology (contd) Sorted satellites by mass categories Small< 2,500 kg Medium2,500 to 4,200 kg Large4,200 to 5,400 kg Extra Large> 5,400 kg Determined satellite/launch vehicle demand Near-term manifest (2011-2013) Long-term forecast (2014-2020) Summarized responses to questionnaire on factors affecting satellite procurement plans 14 satellite operators responded in 2011 (11 in 2010; 13 in 2009) 12 new responders in 2010 2 operators responded in both 2010 and 2011 Slide 6 2011 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/11/2011 6 2010 Commercial GSO Satellites and Launches Number of Launches in 2010 Proton: 8 launches Ariane: 6 launches Number of Satellites Launched in 2010 Proton: 8 satellites Ariane: 12 satellites * = Dual Manifest Launch Slide 7 2011 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/11/2011 7 2011 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast Summary 2011 forecast essentially unchanged from 2010 forecast Average 20.5 satellites per year Average 15.6 launches per year Slide 8 2011 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/11/2011 8 Forecast Sensitivities Numerous factors impact launch forecast Satellite and launch vehicle-related technical issues Scheduling (dual manifesting / range availability / launch site weather) New launch vehicles Business planning / financing Regulatory / licensing issues Hosted payloads ITAR-free satellites Realization factor assesses previous forecasts Variation of historical actual satellites / launches vs. forecasted demand over 5-year rolling period Realization factor applied to near-term forecast of future activity Slide 9 2011 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/11/2011 9 Realization Factor In 2010 the Forecast and the Actual Number of Satellites Launched Were Identical Slide 10 2011 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/11/2011 10 Mass Category Forecast Slide 11 2011 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/11/2011 11 Dual Launch Forecast Slide 12 2011 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/11/2011 12 2010-2011 Forecast Comparison Satellite class 2010 Forecast (2010-2019) 2011 Forecast (2011-2020) Small179 Medium6963 Large5563 Extra Large6670 Total satellites207205 Total launches157156 Slide 13 2011 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/11/2011 13 Comparison of Last 10 Years Forecasts Last four reports show consistent results Slide 14 2011 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/11/2011 14 Satellite Operator Market Assessment Slide 15 2011 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/11/2011 15 Forecast Trends Near term (Years 1 to 3) Satellites stable Launch demand slight increase from 2011 to 2013 reflecting lower pace in 2010 Natural bow wave Satellite mass some redistribution toward heavier mass classes Transponders per satellite moderate decrease Long term (Years 4 to 10) Satellites consistent with history (~20 satellites/year) Launch demand consistent with history (~15 launches/year) Natural decrease over time with lack of information Slide 16 2011 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/11/2011 16 Forecast Summary Ten-year projected average annual demand of 20.5 satellites on 15.6 launches is stable, and consistent with prior years Global economic recovery provides encouraging sign of continued stable market New markets and new applications continue to emerge Forecast methodology is robust, but need to reinforce responsiveness from industry GSO forecast is a useful tool and a respected source of market information