タイにおける洪水被害について - MLIT · 2011. 12. 6. · 5）土木研究所、チャオプラヤ川2006年10月洪水に関するシンポジウム：新たな課題と水文研究の貢献、
洪家科、童振源（2010）〈台商對中國經濟發展的貢獻：1988 2008年〉
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1 台商對中國經濟發展的貢獻：1988-2008 年 洪家科 (國立政治大學 國家發展研究所 碩士) 童振源 (國立政治大學 國家發展研究所 副教授) 摘要 30 年來，台商對中國經濟發展產生極大的貢獻，但兩岸官方所公佈的統計數據皆難 以瞭解台商在中國發展的實際狀況。透過文獻彙整、統計數據分析與適當的估算公式， 本文有系統地估計台商直接投資對中國經濟發展的貢獻。本文發現：(1)、自 1979 年至 2008 年，累計台商在中國直接投資金額高達 1,222.85 億美元，佔同時期累計外商對中國 直接投資金額的 14.34％。另外，自 1997 年至 2008 年，累計台商在中國直接投資金額 為 1,060.63 億美元，佔同時期中國全社會固定資產投資的 0.69％。 (2) 、自 1980 年至 2008 年，累計台商在中國國際貿易的總額為 1 兆 4,458 億美元，佔同時期中國國際貿易總額 9.89％。另外，自 1990 年至 2007 年，累計台商在中國出口貿易的總額為 5,755 億美元， 佔同時期中國出口貿易總額的 9.45％。(3)、2008 年底，台商在中國雇用的就業人口數 為 1,443.41 萬人，佔同時期中國勞動就業人口數的 1.86％。(4) 、自 1992 年至 2007 年， 台商在中國繳納的稅賦總額約為 878 億美元，佔同時期中國財政稅收總額 2.69％。 關鍵字：台商、中國、外商直接投資、資本形成、國際貿易、勞動就業、財政稅收
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30年來，台商對中國經濟發展產生極大的貢獻，但兩岸官方所公佈的統計數據皆難以瞭解台商在中國發展的實際狀況。透過文獻彙整、統計數據分析與適當的估算公式，本文有系統地估計台商直接投資對中國經濟發展的貢獻。本文發現:(1)、自1979年至2008年，累計台商在中國直接投資金額高達1，222.85億美元，佔同時期累計外商對中國直接投資金額的14.34%。另外，自1997年至2008年，累計台商在中國直接投資金額為1，060.63億美元，佔同時期中國全社會固定資產投資的0.69%。(2)、自1980年至2008年，累計台商在中國國際貿易的總額為1兆4，458億美元，佔同時期中國國際貿易總額9.89%。另外，自1990年至2007年，累計台商在中國出口貿易的總額為5，755億美元，佔同時期中國出口貿易總額的9.45%。(3)、2008年底，台商在中國雇用的就業人口數為1，443.41萬人，佔同時期中國勞動就業人口數的1.86%。(4)、自1992年至2007年，台商在中國繳納的稅賦總額約為878億美元，佔同時期中國財政稅收總額2.69%。
Transcript of 洪家科、童振源（2010）〈台商對中國經濟發展的貢獻：1988 2008年〉
- 1. 1 1988-2008 ( ) ( ) 30 (1) 1979 2008 1,222.85 14.34 1997 2008 1,060.63 0.69(2) 1980 2008 1 4,458 9.89 1990 2007 5,755 9.45(3)2008 1,443.41 1.86(4) 1992 2007 878 2.69
2. 2 Contributions of Taiwan Businesspeople towards the Economic Development of China: 1988-2008 Jia-ke Hung* Chen-yuan Tung** For 30 years, Taiwan Businesspeople provide immense contribution towards the economic development of China, yet the official statistical figures published by the cross-strait officials are difficult to understand the actual circumstances of Taiwan businesspeoples development in China. Via compilation of Literature, analysis of statistical data, and appropriate formula for estimation, this research paper systematically estimates contributions of Taiwan businesspeople via direct investment towards the economic development of China. This research paper estimates: (1). From 1979 to 2008, Taiwan businesspeoples total direct investment amounted to USD 122.3 billion, accounted for 14.34% of Chinas same time total direct foreign investment. In addition, from 1997 to 2008, the cumulative direct investment in China for Taiwan businessman was USD 106.1 billion, accounted for 0.69 of Chinas same time total fixed asset investment. (2). From 1980 to 2008, Taiwanese businesspeople in Chinas total international trade amounted to USD 1,445.8 billion, accounted for 9.89% of Chinas same period total trade volume. In addition, from 1990 to 2007, total export of Taiwan businesspeople in China amounted to USD 575.5 billion, accounted for 9.45% of Chinas same period total export. (3). By the end of 2008, Taiwanese businesspeople employed 14,434.1 thousand workers in China, accounted for 1.86% of Chinas same period labor population. (4). From 1992 to 2007, Taiwan businesspeople contributed an approximated total of USD 87.8 billion in tax payment to China, accounted for 2.69% of Chinas total same period fiscal revenue. Key Words: Taiwan Businesspeople, China, Foreign Direct Investment, Capital Formation, International Trade, Employment, Fiscal Revenue. * Jia-ke Hung: Master, Graduate Institute of Development Studies, National Chengchi University ** Chen-yuan Tung: Associate Professor, Graduate Institute of Development Studies, National Chengchi University 3. 3 1940 Foreign Direct Investment 1 1960 2 3 1978 1979 2009 3 8,744 17 2009 55 1999 7.8 22.54 1 0.135 1 1.3-1.66 2001 18.47 1983 2004 1 Paul N. Rosenstein-Rodan, Problems of Industrialization of Eastern and South-Eastern Europe, Economic Journal, Vol. 53, No. 210/211, June/September 1943, pp. 202-211. Walt Whitman Rostow, The Process of Economic Growth (New York: Norton, 1952). John C. H. Fei and Gustav Ranis, Development of the Labor Surplus Economy: Theory and Policy (Homewood, IL: Richard A. Irwin, Inc, 1964). 2 Paul N. Rosenstein-Rodan, International Aid for Underdeveloped Countries, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 43, No. 2, May 1961, pp. 107-138. Ronald I. McKinnon, Foreign Exchange Constraints in Economic Development and Efficient Aid Allocation, Economic Journal, Vol. 74, No. 294, Jun 1964, pp. 388-409. Hollis B. Chenery and Alan M. Strout, Foreign Assistance and Economic Development, American Economic Review, Vol. 56, No. 4, September 1966, pp. 679-733. Simon Smith Kuznets, Modern Economic Growth: Rate, Structure and Spread (New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 1966). Sven Ingvar Svennilson, The Strategy of transfer in Daniel L. Spencer and Alexander Woroniak, eds., The Transfer of Technology in Developing Countries (New York: Frederich A. Praeger,1968), p.179. Harry G. Johnson, Survey of Issues, in Peter Drysdale, ed., Direct Foreign Investment in Asian and the Pacific (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1972), p. 2. Kiyoshi Kojima, Direct Foreign Investment: A Japanese Model of Multinational Business Operations, (London: Croom Helm, 1978). 3 Yanrui Wu, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in China, (Northampton: Edward Elgar Publishing, 1999), p. 3. 44 3 2001 3 21 4 44 3 2001 3 29-32 5 2001 56-61 6 2001 3 2001 3 362000-2007 2008 5 2008 5 123-126 7 2004 1 2004 1 1-3 4. 4 1 0.28488 1987 1988 1990 2008 476.60 755.60 1,000 1,500 1,000 2,000 9 2003 10 11 1995 1.32 214.48 14.4 389 2.2 33.75 1994 0.6612 8 2006 12 2006 12 82 9 10 2 4 2004 4 29-31 11 10 3 2004 12 136-143 12 3 1 1997 5 139146-148141-142146 5. 5 13 70 14 14 1995 56 11,254 2008 756 37,181 13 14 1997 4 6. 6 15 British Virgin IslandsCayman Islands 16 2002 73 57 7817 2004 7018 19 20 70 70 15 2006 15 16 2005 29-31 17 2006 30-31 18 2004 8 4 http://tinyurl.com/kl32cp 19 2007 2007 108 20 2003 25-27 7. 7 AB + C 70 A B C 2008 476.60 901.00 165.07 746.25 1,066.07 70 476.60 746.25 1,222.85 21 1979-2008 (A) (B) (C) (C 70) 1,222.85 476.60 1,066.07 746.25 AB + C 70 2006 1,000 1,500 22 2008 476.60 5.59 1,222.85 21 193 http://www.mac.gov.tw/big5/statistic/em/193/29.pdf 22 2007 3 1 8. 8 14.34 1997 23 1979-2008 1 310,608 3,578.02 41.97 2 92,818 1,222.85 14.34 3 41,126 653.76 7.67 4 56,610 596.50 7.00 5 48,808 419.10 4.92 2008 1996 24 1997 1997 1997 1997 2008 70 1997 2008 1,060.63 735.09 2006 100 23 2006 15 24 2003 25 9. 9 1997-2008 (A) (B) (C) (C 70) 1997 46.02 32.89 17.17 1.58 18.75 13.13 1998 59.64 29.15 40.31 3.24 43.55 30.49 1999 54.17 22.97 38.33 6.24 44.57 31.20 2000 47.25 25.99 26.59 3.78 30.37 21.26 2001 72.56 29.80 50.42 10.67 61.09 42.76 2002 90.79 39.71 61.17 11.80 72.97 51.08 2003 80.27 33.77 57.77 8.66 66.43 46.50 2004 92.58 31.17 67.30 20.43 87.73 61.41 2005 98.30 22.00 90.00 19.00 109.00 76.30 2006 114.76 21.36 112.48 20.95 133.43 93.40 2007 151.60 17.74 165.52 25.71 191.23 133.86 2008 152.69 18.99 160.00 31.00 191.00 133.70 1,060.63 325.54 887.06 163.06 1,050.12 735.09 AB + C 70 http://tinyurl.com/nm42d9 193 http://www.mac.gov.tw/big5/statistic/em/193/10.pdf 1997 2008 7025 1997 70 25 1997 4 10. 10 AB 70 A B 1997 2008 1,060.63 0.691997 2002 1.1 2000 0.832003 2008 2003 0.84 2008 0.42 1997-2008 1997 3,012.21 46.02 32.21 1.07 1998 3,430.70 59.64 41.75 1.22 1999 3,605.64 54.17 37.92 1.05 2000 3,975.57 47.25 33.08 0.83 2001 4,496.28 72.56 50.79 1.13 2002 5,255.52 90.79 63.55 1.21 2003 6,713.62 80.27 56.19 0.84 2004 8,515.36 92.58 64.81 0.76 2005 11,000.17 98.30 68.81 0.63 2006 14,086.62 114.76 80.33 0.57 2007 18,799.65 151.60 106.12 0.56 2008 25,208.66 152.69 106.88 0.42 108,100.00 1,060.63 742.44 0.69 = 70 http://tinyurl.com/nm42d9 11. 11 1980 2008 14 6,197 7 5,166 51.426 1980 2008 27 BDF GA B / A B + C D + E F G A B C D E F 1995 24.1 33.2 48.9 52.1 38.4 42.228 26 http://tinyurl.com/nm42d9 27 28 3 1 1997 5 136-147 1997 101-107 12. 12 2008 42.0 14.3 43.729 1980 2008 20.23 18.34 1997 1980-2008 (G) (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) 20.23 48.90 14 24.10 42 38.40 44 GA B / A B + C D + E F 1980-2008 (G) (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) 18.34 33.20 42 52.10 14 42.20 44 GA B / A B + C D + E F 20.23 18.34 29 193 http://www.mac.gov.tw/big5/statistic/em/193/29.pdf 13. 13 AB C A B C 1980 2008 3 5,605 3 9,557 30 20.23 3 5,605 7,203 18.34 3 9,557 7,255 1980 2008 1 4,458 19.23 9.89 1980-2008 (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) 14,458 75,116 19.23 146,197 9.89 CA BEA D 30 http://zhs.mofcom.gov.cn/tongji.shtml http://www.fdi.gov.cn/pub/FDI/default.htm 14. 14 AB C A B C 1995 2006 2000 2002 31 54.84 1995 52.1032 1995 1997 1995 61.0033 14.34 31 1997 143-144 1999 289-292 2000 36 2004 49 2005 42 2006 51 2007 43 32 1997 101-107 33 1997 143-144 15. 15 AC/B D A B C D 1990 2007 1990 1990 2007 1990 2007 3 1,552 1980 2008 80 18.34 3 1,552 18.34 1990 2007 5,787 1990-2007 (A) (B) (C) 5,787 31,552 18.34 AB C 14.34 1990 2007 57 7,764 16. 16 1990 2007 8 2,851 1995 2006 54.84 1990 2007 4 5,436 9.45 1990-2007 (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) 45,436 82,851 54.84 480,651 9.45 AB CEA D 1990 2007 5,787 4 5,436 34 5,755 5,787 34 194 http://www.mac.gov.tw/big5/statistic/em/194/47.pdf 17. 17 2008 1,622 35 2004 2,168 36 2008 4,500 37 25 38 1 2004 46.902 2004 3 883 2004 3 9,931 3 25 2004 29.57 2006 6 30 20,750 35 http://tinyurl.com/nm42d9 36 http://tinyurl.com/mfcngp http://tinyurl.com/m5rzlk 37 2009 6 16 http://tinyurl.com/nf3wly 38 http://tinyurl.com/lmun3s 18. 18 352.04 600 39 350 600 40 2008 6 2007 600 41 2008 600 42 2008 600 600 2008 24.0143 2,498.96 2008 1.94 0.96 44 490.96/1.94=0.49 2,498.96 24.01 75.99 49 39 350 2006 8 15 http://tinyurl.com/ydec4um 40 2006 3 16 A7 41 2006 6 24 http://tinyurl.com/y8uusgf 42 2008 7 9 http://tinyurl.com/o5vygm 43 193 http://www.mac.gov.tw/big5/statistic/em/193/11.pdf 44 2009 1000 2009 62-100 19. 19 A= BC+DE A B C D E A=2,498.960.24+0.760.492008 1,524.37 45 600 32.34 1,855.29 2002 2006 65.3352.6355.4257.09 90.1446 2006 2002 2005 45 193 http://www.mac.gov.tw/big5/statistic/em/193/11.pdf 46 2007 2007 2-2 2006 2006 2-2 2005 2005 2-2 2004 2004 1-2b 2003 2003 1-2b 20. 20 52.00 66.00 2002 2005 57.62 2002-2005 2002 320.59 490.70 65.33 2003 449.22 853.62 52.63 2004 363.74 656.37 55.42 2005 452.59 792.78 57.09 2006 527.05 584.72 90.14 2002-2005 --- --- 57.62 57.62 1,855.29 32.34 67.66 57.62 A= BC+DE A B C D E A=1,855.290.32+0.680.58 2008 1,317.26 2003 21. 21 AB C A B C 1,600 2008 37,181 47 2008 1,939 1,357 48 2008 38,538 2008 65 30 46.1549 46.15 2008 17,785 1,313 2006 837 50 2008 17,785 2008 47 193 http://www.mac.gov.tw/big5/statistic/em/193/13.pdf 48 49 2008 9 28 http://tinyurl.com/mng59k 50 2007 62-63 22. 22 1,488.60 2008 1,524.37 1,317.26 1,488.60 2008 1,443.41 1,524.37 1,317.26 1,488.60 --- 1,443.41 51 2008 1,443.41 2008 7 7,480 52 2008 1.86 51 2008 12 25 2004 6 7 http://tinyurl.com/luq3sd 2004 1 12 http://tinyurl.com/nhbrjm 2008 1 2008 1 412007 7 52 http://tinyurl.com/nm42d9 23. 23 2008 (A) (B) (C) 1.86 1,443.41 77,480 AB C 2008 33 3 18 2753 2008 30 354 11 3355 2007 3 2008 1 1 25 56 18 27 3 1992 2007 53 9 104 2002 10 106-108 54 2008 9 28 http://tinyurl.com/mng59k 55 164 2006 8 56 2007 3 19 http://tinyurl.com/ntlc3v 24. 24 4 8,543 18.75 2002 20 3 2057 1992 1992 1992 1992 1982 623 0.03 1985 1,198 14 1.258 1992 AC/B D A B C D 1992 2007 4 8,543 14.34 1992 2007 6,961 1992 2007 878 1992 57 1992 2007 2008 11 10 http://tinyurl.com/nqobja 58 2001 88 25. 25 1993 1995 50 1993 85.23 1993 1995 19 351992 2007 2.692006 3.041993 0.61 1992-2007 (A) (B) (C) 1992 2,876.1 17.54 --- 0.61 1993 3,970.5 32.49 85.23 0.82 1994 4,728.7 57.73 77.69 1.22 1995 5,515.5 86.69 50.16 1.57 1996 6,436.0 109.57 26.39 1.70 1997 7,548.0 142.40 29.96 1.89 1998 8,551.7 176.38 23.86 2.06 1999 10,311.9 236.45 34.06 2.29 2000 12,665.0 317.92 34.46 2.51 2001 15,165.0 413.42 30.04 2.73 2002 17,004.0 500.04 20.95 2.94 2003 20,461.6 612.03 22.40 2.99 2004 25,723.0 767.91 25.47 2.99 2005 30,866.0 916.51 19.35 2.97 2006 37,636.0 1,143.89 24.81 3.04 2007 49,451.8 1,430.07 25.02 2.89 258,910.8 6,961.04 --- 2.69 CB A 30 26. 26 2008 476.60 755.60 1,222.85 14.34 1997 2008 1997 1,222.85 1979 2008 856 1997 2008 1,060.63 0.69 1997 2008 1997 1.07 2008 0.42 1980 2008 1 4,458 9.89 7,203 7,255 1979 2008 1,222.85 1 4,458 1 11.82 59 1990 2007 5,755 9.45 2008 1,443.41 1.86 1992 2007 878 2.69 59 1979 27. 27 1997-2008 1,060.63 0.69 1980-2008 14,458.00 9.89 2008 1,443.41 1.86 1992-2007 878.00 2.69 1997 25 60 1995 18.192006 28.1161 60 2001 10 10 http://tinyurl.com/nsxcs4 61 1997 89 2007 365 2007 4 60-61 28. 28 1992 2007 2008 11 10 http://tinyurl.com/nqobja 2009 6 16 http://tinyurl.com/nf3wly 2007 3 19 http://tinyurl.com/ntlc3v 2004 8 4 http://tinyurl.com/kl32cp 350 2006 8 15 http://tinyurl.com/ydec4um 2006 6 24 http://tinyurl.com/y8uusgf 2008 9 28 http://tinyurl.com/mng59k 2008 7 9 http://tinyurl.com/o5vygm 2001 10 10 http://tinyurl.com/nsxcs4 2009 1000 2009 http://www.mac.gov.tw/big5/statistic/em/193/11.pdf http://www.fdi.gov.cn/pub/FDI/default.htm http://zhs.mofcom.gov.cn/tongji.shtml http://tinyurl.com/lmun3s http://tinyurl.com/mfcngp http://tinyurl.com/m5rzlk http://tinyurl.com/nm42d9 193 http://www.mac.gov.tw/big5/statistic/em/193/11.pdf 193 29. 29 http://www.mac.gov.tw/big5/statistic/em/193/13.pdf 193 http://www.mac.gov.tw/big5/statistic/em/193/29.pdf 194 http://www.mac.gov.tw/big5/statistic/em/194/47.pdf 2006 1997 1999 2000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 4 57-61 2007 2007 1997 30. 30 2006 2008 12 25 2007 2008 1 2008 1 41-44 2006 3 16 A7 2006 12 2006 12 78-82 2 4 2004 4 23-40 164 2006 8 2004 1 12 http://tinyurl.com/nhbrjm 3 1 1997 5 134-152 1997 2005 2001 3 2001 3 36-38 44 3 2001 3 17-42 2000-2007 2008 5 2008 5 123-126 10 3 2004 12 136-143 2007 3 1 2003 2004 6 7 http://tinyurl.com/luq3sd 9 104 2002 10 106-108 31. 31 2001 2004 1 2004 1 1-14 Chenery, Hollis B. and Alan M. 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