2010 Israeli Arab/Palestinian Public Opinion Survey · PDF fileIn the current conflict among...
Transcript of 2010 Israeli Arab/Palestinian Public Opinion Survey · PDF fileIn the current conflict among...
SABAN CENTER FOR MIDDLE EAST POLICYSABAN CENTER FOR MIDDLE EAST POLICY presentspresents
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland with Zogby Internationalwith Zogby International
20102010 Israeli Arab/Palestinian Public Israeli Arab/Palestinian Public
Opinion SurveyOpinion Survey
Professor Shibley Telhami, Principal InvestigatorProfessor Shibley Telhami, Principal InvestigatorAnwar Sadat Chair for Peace and Development andAnwar Sadat Chair for Peace and Development and
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Saban Center at BrookingsNonresident Senior Fellow, Saban Center at Brookings
Special thanks to the Carnegie Corporation of New YorkSpecial thanks to the Carnegie Corporation of New York
Survey conducted October 20Survey conducted October 20-- November 3November 3
Sample size: 600Sample size: 600Margin of error: +/Margin of error: +/-- 4.0%4.0%
IDENTITY
Identity most importantWhenyouthinkaboutyourself,whichofthefollowingisyour
mostimportantidentity?
Identity - Muslim
Whenyouthinkaboutyourself,whichofthefollowingisyour mostimportantidentity...?
Identity - Christian
Whenyouthinkaboutyourself,whichofthefollowingisyour mostimportantidentity...?
Identity - Druze
Whenyouthinkaboutyourself,whichofthefollowingisyour mostimportantidentity...?
Identity 1948 war refugees
Palestinian Israeli Arab
Doyouhaveanyrelatives
refugeesofthe1948war?
Muslim
ATTITUDE TOWARD US
AttitudestowardtheU.S.
aggregate
Generallyspeaking,isyourattitudetowardtheUnitedStates:
SadatChair
Very
favorableSomewhat
favorableSomewhat
unfavorableVery
unfavorableNot
familiar
2009
2010
Views of President Barack Obama
SadatChair
Very
positiveSomewhat
positiveVery
negativeSomewhat
negativeNeutral
2009
2010
Evaluating Obama Administration policy: What are the central issues for you?
Attitude toward Obama Administration policy in the Middle East
Obamas policy:
What policies do you like most?
Obamas Administration Policies:
Most disappointing (choose two)
* Percentages add up to more than 100%
American policy drivers in the Middle East (first)
IRAN
Opinion on Irans nuclear research purpose
SadatChair
Iranismerelyconducting
researchforpeacefulpurposesIranistryingtodevelop
nuclearweapons
2009
2010
Opinion on Irans nuclear program
SadatChair
Iranhastherighttoitsnuclear
programandtheinternational pressureshouldcease
Iranshouldbepressuredto
stopitsnuclearprogram
2009
2010
Opinion on Irans nuclear program 1948 war refugees
SadatChair
Iranhastherighttoitsnuclear
programandtheinternational pressureshouldcease
Iranshouldbepressuredto
stopitsnuclearprogram
yes
no
Doyouhaveanyrelatives
refugeesofthe1948war?
Outcome for Middle East if Iran acquires nuclear weapons
SadatChair
Theoutcomewould
bemorepositiveTheoutcomewould
bemorenegativeItwouldnot
matter
2009
2010
ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT
Palestinianrefugees
righttoreturn aggregateHowdoyoufeelaboutPalestinianrefugees
righttoreturn?
SadatChair
Nottoo
importantImportantbuta
compromiseshould befound
Importantandcannotbe
compromisedinanyway
2009
2010
Outcome if no two-state solution is found
Whatdoyoubelieveisthelikelyoutcomeiftheprospectsofa twostatesolutionofthePalestinian/ArabIsraeliconflictcollapse:
IsraelasaJewishstate
aggregate
YouropiniontowardsdefiningIsraelasaJewishstate:
IsraelasaJewishstate
1948warrefugees
YouropiniontowardsdefiningIsraelasaJewishstate:
SadatChair
2009
2010
2010
2009
no
yes
Accept
w/o conditions
OnlyifPalestinianstate
established,Arab/Palestinian citizensofIsraelgivenfullrights
Donotaccept
Prospects of lasting peaceWhichisclosesttoyourviewabouttheprospectsoflastingpeace
betweenIsraelandthePalestinians?
SadatChair
Inthe
next5yrsInevitable,butit
willtakemoretimeDontbelieveitwillever
happen
2009
2010
Palestinian sympathiesInthecurrentconflictamongthePalestinians,withwhomdoyou
sympathizemost?
SadatChair
2009
2010
Fatah Hamas Both Othergroups Noneofthe
above
Preferences for Palestinian governmentAsyoulookattheinternalPalestinianpoliticaldivisions,doyou
prefertoseea:
SadatChair
2009
2010
Fatah
governmentHamas
governmentNationalunity
governmentOther
Transfer of Arab/Palestinian towns
SadatChair
Yes No
2009
2010
WouldyouacceptthetransferofsomeArab/Palestiniantowns currentlyinIsraeltoanewPalestinianstate,whenestablished?
Transfer of Arab/Palestinian towns
IfNo,whichofthefollowingreasonsismostimportanttoyou?
Attitude towards proposed loyalty oath - aggregate
Attitude towards proposed loyalty oath 1948 war refugees
SadatChair
yes
no
Oppose Support Supportifonly
appliedtonew citizens
SupportifIsraelwas
definedasstateof all
Reasons for rejecting loyalty oath - aggregate
Arab/Palestinian rights in IsraelIfpeaceprevailsbetweenIsraelandPalestiniansthroughan
establishmentofPalestinianstateatpeacewithIsrael,whichis morelikelyaboutthestatusofArabcitizensofIsrael:
SadatChair
2009
2010
Rightswillimprove Rightswilldecline Willnotchange
Recruitment of Arab/Palestinian citizensYouropinionofpossiblerecruitmentofIsraeliArab/Palestinian
citizensintononmilitarynationalserviceprogram:
SadatChair
2009
2010
Rejectunderany
circumstancesAcceptifArabs
grantedequalrights toJews
Acceptonlyafter
Palestinianstate established
Jewish Holocaust movies aggregate
WhenyouwatchamovieoraprogramabouttheJewish Holocaustwhichofthefollowingisclosesttoyourfeelings:
Jewish Holocaust movies Jewish friends
Empathizewith
Jewswhosuffered underNazis
Resent
bringssympathy
towardsJewsattheexpense ofPalestinians/Arabs
Mixed
feelings
Whichofthefollowingmostaccuratelydescribesyou?
Jewish Holocaust movies 1948 war refugees
Empathizewith
Jewswhosuffered underNazis
Resent
bringssympathy
towardsJewsattheexpense ofPalestinians/Arabs
Mixed
feelings
Doyouhaveanyrelatives
refugeesofthe1948war?
Palestinian civilian casualties aggregate (first)
WhenyouseePalestinianciviliancasualtiesintheconflictwith Israel,whichTWOofthefollowingbestdescribeyourfeelings:
Palestinian civilian casualties aggregate (second)
WhenyouseePalestinianciviliancasualtiesintheconflictwith Israel,whichTWOofthefollowingbestdescribeyourfeelings:
Palestinian civilian casualties 1948 war refugees
Empathy
with Palestinian
victims
Needfor
revenge against
Israel
Helpless
Doyouhaveanyrelatives
refugeesofthe1948war?Angrywith
Palestinian leadership
Angrywith
Arab govern
ments
Israeli civilian casualties aggregate (first)
WhenyouwatchIsraeliciviliancasualtiesintheconflictwiththe Palestinians,whichTWObestdescribeyourfeelings:
Israeli civilian casualties aggregate (second)
WhenyouwatchIsraeliciviliancasualtiesintheconflictwiththe Palestinians,whichTWObestdescribeyourfeelings:
Israeli civilian casualties 1948 war refugees
Empathy
with Israeli
victims
Israelis
broughtit upon
themselves
Revenge
forPale stinians
Doyouhaveanyrelatives
refugeesofthe1948war?Sameas
whenother civilians
killed
Angry
with Israeli
leaders
MEDIA
Internationalnewssource
aggregate
Whatinternationalnewsdoyouwatch?
Internationalnewssource
1948warrefugees
Whatinternationalnewsdoyouwatch?
SadatChair
2009
2010
2010
2009
no
yes
MBC AlManar AlJazeera AnIsraeli
networkAlArabiya
INTERNATIONAL DYNAMICS
Country - biggest threat to you (first)Nametwocountriesthatyouthinkposebiggestthreattoyou?
World leader sympathies
Hassan
NassrallahSaddam
HusseinBarack
ObamaRecep
ErdoganOther
Pleasetellmewhichworldleader(outsideofyourowncountry) youadmiremost?
Superpower sympathies
USA Russia China France Germany
Inaworldwherethereisonlyonesuperpower,whichcountries wouldyouprefermorethanotherstobethatsuperpower?
SABAN CENTER FOR MIDDLE EAST POLICYpresentsUniversity of Marylandwith Zogby International 2010Israeli Arab/Palestinian Public Opinion SurveySlide Number 2IDENTITYSlide Number 4Slide Number 5Slide Number 6Slide Number 7Slide Number 8ATTITUDE TOWARD USSlide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16IRANSlide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICTSlide Number 2