2010 Grail Research Cloud Computing

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Cloud Computing: Fact versus FogDecember 2010


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| Copyright 2010 Grail Research, LLCDecember 2010 2

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Foundations of Cloud Computing

Obstacles and Considerations

Future of Cloud


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This presentation addresses the current state of cloud computing, obstacles to business adoption, and expectations forthe future. This is the first in a series of papers written by Grail Research on the topic of cloud computing and theinvestigation of how businesses are adapting to and taking advantage of Internet-based, on-demand computing

Cloud Buzz News of Cloud is everywhere, and its predominance in IT is a foregone conclusion. In fact, the push to adoptCloud has been so strong that risks inherent in this model have largely been ignored

Adoption Haste

The recent economic turmoil and the promise of Cloud leading a renaissance of the tech sector are shaping theperspective and appetite for Cloud rather than the readiness of the technology itself. Cloud is a powerful tool formobilizing data; however, there are no regulations, standards, or assurances of data protection from a technicalperspective

Expert ViewsAnalyst sentiment seems to be the sole voice of reason. Principal analysts from Forrester, Gartner, and Yankeecite major security concerns with Cloud. Hackers have also highlighted the vulnerabilities of Cloud and issued amanifesto of mayhem against it ( Black Hat 2009 Clobbering the Cloud by SensePost )

Security Risks

Major breaches at Google, Salesforce.com, and Amazon, have exposed the fragility of the Cloud delivery model,

and the fundamental issues of data security, privacy, and standards that have yet to be addressed. Though pricepoints gained in Cloud can be significant, businesses should weigh advantages against the hidden costs ofcompromised data

OpportunityAssessing your organizations readiness for Cloud should include the evaluation of hybrid models, hybridarchitectures, integration constraints, and innovative data protection methods, that will offer the best approach forbusiness adoption

Key TakeawaysConsider the direct business benefits of Cloud for your company and your individual business needs, weighingagainst security and privacy concerns. In the more immediate future, look toward applications focused oninnovative data protection methods, enabling organizations to utilize Public Cloud in a private manner

Purpose

Executive Summary


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Cloud is an evolution, merging virtualization, grid, utility, and web standards

Cloud is an evolution. It coalesces grid, utility, virtualization and web standards into a delivery paradigm. Thedifference is each of these components are building blocks that solve the specific point problems ofabstracted, on-demand, distributed processing Tony Bishop (Founder and CEO, Adaptivity)

I don't think it's a revolution as much as it's an evolution. If you want to really say what kicked this thing off,virtualization was a big precursor to CloudI think Cloud" is a little bit overused right now. I look at it as theevolution of the data center, to do more scalable processing and computing Ping Li (Partner, Accel

Partners)

Source: SysCon Website; Ars Technica Website; CIO Website

Cloud services have shifted from a year ago. We did a focus group around 12 months ago and they prettymuch took the mickey out of Cloud. It was seen as unrealistic and CIOs werent considering it. Whats evenmore of a surprise is that in a short period of 12 months, weve seen Cloud go from a bit of a joke to anumber two priority on the plate of CIOs today, and a very serious consideration that they are taking onboard Paul Harapin (Director, ComputersOff.org and Ex-MD, Vmware)

Foundations ofCloud Computing

Obstacles andConsiderations Future of Cloud

Foundations of Cloud ComputingFoundations

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Source: Sysomos Software Tool; SysCon Website; Forrester Research Website; NIST Website

Essential CharacteristicsOn-demand Self-Service

Broad Network AccessResource PoolingRapid Elasticity

Service Delivery ModelsCloud Software as a Service

Cloud Development as a ServiceCloud Platform as a ServiceCloud Infrastructure as a Service

Deployment ModelsPrivate Cloud

Public CloudHybrid CloudCommunity Cloud

How Do Experts Define Cloud Computing?

Cloud computing is an evolutionary technology because it doesnt change the computing stack at all. It simplydistributes the stacks between the service providers and the users. It is an IT architecture with vertical services

Steve Jin (Creator of Vmware vSphere Java API)

Applications/functionality delivered via Cloud: Accessible via standard Internet protocols, always available and scaledto demand, programmable interface, pay as you use, full self-service features Chenxi Wang (Ph.D., PrincipalAnalyst, Forrester)

The Cloud model initially has focused on making the hardware layer consumable as on-demand computer andstorage capacity. This is an important first step, but for companies to harness the power of Cloud, complete applicationinfrastructure needs to be easily configured, deployed, dynamically-scaled and managed in these virtualized-hardwareenvironments K. Sheynkman (Co-Founder, Elastra Corporation)

Defining Cloud ComputingFoundations

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Cloud computing is a model for enabling convenient, on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurablecomputing resources (e.g., networks, servers, storage, applications, and services) that can be rapidly provisioned andreleased with minimal management effort or service provider interaction. Peter Mell and Tim Grance ( NIST)Definition


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Key TakeawaysDefinition and Expert Views

Global Share of Online Discussions 4 on Types ofClouds

Major Types of Clouds

Private Cloud is more suited fororganizations that need high-levelsecurity. Though most experts believethat private cloud is an oxymoron,others argue that the model offers

better resource management to currentIT managers

The Public Cloud model emerged asa great value proposition for SMB 4companies and startups

Some experts believe that companiesare testing the waters by taking limitedservices on Cloud before adopting aparticular cloud computing model

The Hybrid Cloud model providesmore flexibility than the Public Cloudmodel, and is less capital intensivethan the Private Cloud model

The Community Cloud model isexpected to address the requirementsof governments and their agencies

Private CloudDedicated to one customer/company

Public CloudMade available to the general public for specific

general purposes

Hybrid CloudIntegration of two or more types of Clouds (Private,

Community, or Public)

Community CloudDedicated to a user/industry group that has shared

concerns (mission, security requirements, policy,and compliance considerations)

CIOs know that what is sometimes dubbed "privatecloud" does not meet their goal as it does not give themthe benefits of cloud: true elasticity and capex

elimination Werner Vogels (VP and CTO, Amazon)

Concerns for those deploying in the public cloud arefactors such as the financial stability of the hosting

organization and the hosting organizations deploymentpolicies IBM X-Force

The hybrid cloud is an attractive way to take advantage

of cloud computing, and It also means choice for thecustomers, and they can determine the adoption speedthey want to go at Tim Crawford (CIO, All Covered)

Emerging Primary Models for Cloud Deployment

Global Share of Online Discussions 2 on Types ofClouds

Major Types of Clouds

Community CloudHybrid Cloud

Public CloudPrivate Cloud

N= 49,781 3

12%

1%

35% 52%

InternetIntranet/VPN 1 Intranet/VPN 1

+ Internet

PrivateCloud

HybridCloud

Public/Community

Cloud

USERS

Foundationsof Cloud

Computing


Note: 1Virtual Private Network; 2Discussions during the period 25-Aug-2009 to 25-Aug-2010; 3N may include some articles/posts more than once, if repeated ondifferent websites; 4Small and Medium BusinessesSource: Sysomos Software Tool; CIO Website; SysCon Website; IBM X-Force: Mid-Year Trend and Risk Report



Note: Comment and Views include key snippetsSource: IDC reports: Worldwide Enterprise Server Cloud Computing 2010-2014 Forecast; Worldwide Software as a Service 20102014 Forecast: SoftwareWill Never Be the Same; MarketsAndMarkets report: Global Cloud Computing Market 2010 2015 ; EconomicTimes Website

Key Takeaways

Experts believe that SaaS will be adopted by most companies in thenext few years at some level or the other, especially in contentmanagement, collaboration, document management, and customermanagement applications

The explosive growth in the cloud computing market will mirrorgreater IT globalization trends, with India leading the market inoutsourced support for Cloud services

Expert Views

We are seeing an acceleration of adoption of cloudcomputing and cloud services among enterprises and anexplosion of supply-side activity as technology providersmaneuver to exploit the growing commercial opportunity

Ben Pring (VP, Gartner)

India will not only see a surge in cloud computing services butcompanies all over the world will look to India to support theirtransition to cloud computing Steve Ballmer (CEO, Microsoft)

The global cloud computing market is expected to grow from $37.8billion in 2010 to $121.1 billion in 2015 at a CAGR of 26.2% from2010 to 2015. SaaS is the largest contributor in the Cloudcomputing services market, accounting for 73% of the market'srevenues in 2010 MarketsAndMarkets Report

By 2012, nearly 85% of net-new software firms coming to marketwill be built around SaaS service composition and delivery; by2014, about 65% of new products from established ISVs will bedelivered as SaaS services. SaaS-derived revenue will accountfor nearly 26% of net new growth in the software market in

2014 IDC Report

(26% CAGR)

The cloud computing market is expected to grow at a double-digit rate in the next 5 years. According to experts, theSaaS delivery model of cloud computing will lead the growth story. They believe that emerging countries such as Indiahave the greatest potential for market growth, including opportunities to support outsourcing of Cloud servicesInsights

It is estimated that SaaS is growing at a rate five times faster thanthe software market as a whole

2010 2015

Cloud Market Growth

Cloud ComputingMarket Size and Growth Prospects

USD37.8 Bn USD 121.1 Bn

Foundationsof Cloud

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Source: R Wang and Insider Associates; A Software Insiders Point of ViewUnderstanding The Many Flavors of Cloud Computing and SaaS( R "Ray" Wang , Phil Wainewright, Michael Cote, and James Governor); Forrester Report; Grail Research Analysis

Traditional Delivery Cloud-based Delivery

Consumption Applications Software as a Service (SaaS)

Creation Development Tools Development as a Service (DaaS)

Orchestration Middleware Platform as a Service (PaaS)

Infrastructure Infrastructure and Hardware Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS)

Business Value

Traditional IT Delivery Translated to CloudFoundations

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http://office365.microsoft.com/online-services.aspx


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Source: BusinessComputingWorld Website; CIO Website

The concept of computing resources as a utility is gaining traction among SMBs; however, the economicmodel offered by Cloud service providers has yet to prove its strength of scalability to enterprise customers

In the past, energy-efficient performance and connectivity have defined computing requirements. Lookingforward, security will join those as a third pillar of what people demand from all computing experiences PaulOtellini (CEO, Intel)Its a big win for smaller companies to leverage the cloud because you are really saving a lotit is reallyavoiding a large, up-front investment. Five years ago, we would have had to build out a data center and thesheer cost of that would have made it much more difficult to launch our business. In a traditional data center,we would need an IT person to rack the system, maintain the servers, and own the hardware, So rather than

hiring someone, we now have software developers that are writing on a very flexible platform that vendormaintains Oliver Friedrichs (CEO, Immunet)

Right90 didnt start its business using third-party infrastructure, but the cost savings and flexibility of Cloudservices beckoned. Last year, the company moved out of its data centers in Calgary, Ontario and SanFrancisco, California and adopted Amazon EC2 with backup to servers located at the firms own offices.The lack of servers to manage has freed up Right90s IT management team Arthur Wong (CEO, Right90)



Obstacles and ConsiderationsFoundations

of CloudComputing




Note: Comment and Views include key snippetsSource: Sysomos Software Tool; CIO Website; SysCon Website; Ulitzer Website; CloudNod Website

Drivers of Adoption

EconomicDownturn

TechnologyAdvancements

DemandExpectation

In part, this can be explained by macroeconomic factors, The financial turbulenceof the last 18 months has meant every organization has been scrutinizing everyexpenditure. An IT solution that can deliver functionality less expensively and with

more agility (remembering that time is money) is hard to ignore against thisbackdrop Ben Pring (VP, Gartner Research)

The economic downturn hasforced businesses to becomeleaner, which in turn has fuelled

the adoption of cost-effectiveCloud service models

Clouds on-demand model allowscompanies to scale up (or down)as they rapidly restructure tomeet market requirements, with apay-as-you-go model instead oftaking on the capital expenses oftraditional IT infrastructure

Server technology is in the middle of a renaissance where it is driving Cloudadvancements and Cloud is, in turn, changing servers. Cloud-based scale issueswill continue to change how servers and software for them are built for years tocome Steve Ballmer (CEO, Microsoft)

In technical terms, cloud computing offers elasticity, pay-as-you-go rather thancapital-intensive investment, and no long-term resource commitments. In businessterms, cloud computing means low cost of opportunity experimentation, highagility to respond to changing business conditions, and the ability to direct capitalinvestment toward core business activities" Bernard Golden (CEO,HyperStratus)

A

B

C

Key TakeawaysExpert Views

The success of virtualization andInternet bandwidth availability haspositioned Cloud services as apotential market opportunity

Foundationsof Cloud

Computing




Note: 1The Role of Security in Trustworthy Cloud Computing; Comment and Views include key snippetsSource: Sysomos Software Tool; CIO Website; SysCon Website; ComputerWorld Website

Expert Views

Security and DataPrivacy

1Integration withCloud-Based

Systems2Regulatory andCompliance

Issues3

"Security has been identified as the most

significant issue associated with cloudcomputing adoption" Melvin Greer(Chief Strategist, Cloud Computingfor Lockheed Martin)

In certain cases, compliance will be impossible, It is

difficult to take full responsibility for who can accessdata, who sees it and how it is stored, since thepremise of the Cloud is that customers don'tnecessarily need to know or care where their datais Jim Haskin (SVP, Websense inc)

At this initial stage, the applications anddata being processed in clouds arepredominantly non-sensitive, and theCloud services offer minimal or onlygenerally available security. The cloudofferings themselves are proprietarycomputing islands, with few standardsand only limited possibilities forinteroperability RSA (SecurityDivision of EMC), White paper 1

"I am 100 percent responsible and accountablefor all technology and every shred of data thatmoves in and out of my company, and don'twant IT to be seen as "the say-no people, butend users may not foresee the difficulties ofmeshing new products with existing technology.On-premise, we have technology standards.Nothing like that exists in the cloud. If businessusers adopt these things, we CIOs arechallenged in IT to figure out how to integrate[them] with the rest of our world" Don Goin(CIO, Santander Consumer)

"There is an issue that's looming that hasn't reallybeen discussed or addressed yet. That is the role of

governance for companies that are consuming theservices versus the role of governance forcompanies that are providing the services. Onsome level, companies are going to be bothconsumers and providers of cloud services JoeMcKendrick (Independent Analyst and ZDNetBlogger)

Barriers to Major AdoptionIndustry experts believe that there is apprehension among potential Cloud customers about security and data privacy.Other major concerns include complexity in the integration of cloud-based systems and adherence toregulatory/compliance frameworksInsights

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Note: 1Amazon Machine InstancesSource: SensePost Website; Black Hat 2009 - Clobbering the Cloud; Grail Research Analysis

With the exploitation of Google BlogSpot and Mobile Me, we are again seeing two common spamming practices converge CAPTCHA breaking techniques and exploitation of free hosted services Mark Sunner (Chief Security Analyst, MessgeLabs)

It's possible to stitch together thefree resources to produce auseable computing platform thatcan take advantage of theexpanded resources withoutincurring cost to the attacker

SensePost

Loophole: Ways to bypass thecontrols on free accounts fromForce.com in addition to exploitinga bug in the CAPTCHA script

Hackers demonstrated how they

were able to circumvent controls toaccess restricted resources on theForce.com platform, whichsupports custom source codeupload and execution

Salesforce.com

By piecing together publiclyavailable information, we cangenerate a profile that is sufficientlycomplete for a password reset,

which points to flaws within thereset process SensePost

Loophole: Weak password reset

feature and XSS vulnerability in theapplication

Hackers arrived at a point where

they could read Steve Wozniaksmail and even embed JavaScriptfor continued access to his accountand services (if they were a bitmore malicious)

Mobile Me

We showed attacks against theAmazon EC2 platform that do nottarget specific weaknesses intechnologies; rather the processesby which complex actions tookplace were abused to our benefit

SensePost

Loophole: Resource theft in theCloud sharing environment asignificant concern

Hackers showed EC2svulnerability by carrying out threeseparate attacks:

Starting numerous machinesStealing computingtime/bandwidth of other usersStealing paid-for 2AMIs

1Amazon

Security analysts and hackers have demonstrated major loopholes in Cloud offerings

Insights

Clobbering the CloudHackers Issue Manifesto of Mayhem

Foundationsof Cloud

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Dec 2009: Zeus botnet was spotted on Amazons Elastic Computing Cloud (EC2) Cloud computing network. It

was running an unauthorized command and control center:Zeus botnet enables hackers to steal login credentials, account numbers, and credit card informationthrough the creation of fake HTML forms on banking login pagesMore than USD100 MM was lost in bank fraud due to Zeus botnet attacks in 2009The hacker may have stolen the password from the desktop of a user

"I think it's more a target of opportunity than a target of choice Don DeBolt (Director, Threat Research, HCLtechnologies)

Jan 2010: A hacker uses the Google Street View data to stalk victims. The attacker is able to track his victimin few seconds without even using IP address information

"The interesting bit is I'm not piggybacking off of the browser's geo-location feature. I simply re-implemented thefeature as a server-side tool. This way if I can obtain the user's router's MAC address in any way, regardless ofbrowser, nationality, or age, I can typically determine their location and show up at their place with pizza andbeer later that night Samy Kamkar (Co-Founder, Fonality Inc.)

July 2009: Twitter corporate and employee information was infiltrated at the top levels of the organization,including the CEO Evan Williams personal email. The individual behind the attacks accessed nearly 310documents containing confidential information belonging to Twitter. The hacker sent documentation to TechCrunch, the elite media organization that covers tech trends, to prove the attack

"It's a message I wanted to get out to Internet users, to show them that no system is invulnerable Francois Cousteix (Hacker Croll, in his interview with French media on hacking the Twitter account)

Source: CIO Website; Snipe Website; Sean-Barton Website; Dark Reading, Computer World blog; TechCrunch

The security of these Cloud-based infrastructure services is like Windows in 1999. Its being widely used and nothingtremendously bad has happened yet. But its just in early stages of getting exposed to the Internet, and you know badthings are coming John Pescatore (VP, Gartner Fellow)

Recent Threats Validate Security ConcernsFoundations

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http://maps.google.com/help/maps/streetview/


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Over the last few years, start-ups and small businesses have proposed innovative solutions to mitigate therisks associated with cloud computing, and are competing with leading players in the Cloud space

I believe that Cloud computing is a powerful trend the next platform shift in computing. It will profoundly change the

way organizations do their computing. Proof is in the fact that major vendors like IBM, Google, and Microsoft areinvesting tens of billions of dollars in building out their Cloud infrastructures. Those who characterize Cloud computingas mostly hype have short memories. It was barely a decade ago that many people characterized the Internet asmostly hype Bernard Golden (CEO, HyperStratus)

So, in terms of the first movers and the environment now, its going to look very different. Anybody who carved outsome space right now and some lead in the market in Cloud shouldnt feel too comfortable about their position,because there are companies we dont even know about at this point, that are going to be fairly pervasive and have alot to say about IT five years from now Jim Reavis (Executive Director of Cloud Security Alliance (CSA), andPresident, Reavis Consulting Group)

Source: CIO Website; NetworkWorld Website; ReadWriteWeb Website

Password resetting and other security mechanisms in the Cloud are always going to be a weak link, as long as user-friendliness comes ahead of security in Cloud computing beauty stakes. Expecting regular joes to whip out a two-factor authentication device for use with a Cloud-driven service just isnt realistic. Its not going to happen AndyCordial (MD, Origin Storage)



Future of CloudFoundations

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R t A i iti



Note: Comment and Views include key snippetsSource: Gigaom Website; eSecurityPlanet Website; Company Websites

Aug 2010: Instead of running above OS, we have to think about using security at a lowerlevel of the stackI'm looking forward to one year from now when I 'm standing before youall and we're talking about a whole other era Dave DeWalt (CEO, McAfee)

The other major shift impacting Intels core market is the trend toward Cloud Computing,. So the acquisition of McAfee could do three things for Intel:It provides the capabilityfor Intel to develop security within a cloud computing infrastructure Pat Clawson(Chairman & CEO, Lumension)

Jul 2010: "With BigFix software integrated with IBM software offerings, IBM clients will beable to more easily manage and secure their PCs and laptops, a complex task as the costs

and risks associated with security threats continue to grow Steve Robinson (GM ofSecurity Solutions, IBM)

Sep 2006: Information security continues to dominate the spending intentions of CIOsaround the world. The battlefront in security has quickly shifted from securing the networkperimeter to protecting and securing the information itselfwherever that information livesand wherever it moves Joe Tucci (Chairman, President & CEO, EMC)

Aug 2010: "With Fortifys leadership in static application security analysis combined withHPs expertise in dynamic application security analysis, organizations will have a best-in-class solution to improve the security of their applications and services Bill Veghte(Executive VP of Software and Solutions, HP)

Expert ViewsCompanies Acquisition

Microsoft, IBM, and Sun offer security within the operating system Google and Amazon have security features in theirapps, but Intels acquisition of McAfee seems to have redefined the security landscape with a potential to embed securitywithin the chip. Some experts believe that this will lead to more secure Cloud offerings in the futureInsights

Recent AcquisitionsIs Cloud driving acquisitions?

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Buzzing Startups


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Source: BusinessWeek Website; AllenPort Website; Digi-Data Website; CTERA Website; Egnyte Website; TechcrunchIT Website; M86Security Website;CRN Website

ConceptCompanies Product Offering CEO

Cloud-Client

Data and applications are stored and run locally on the PC whileinstantaneously mirroring the data to Cloud. Data is encryptedprior to transmission and decrypted only upon call back Joel Allen

Cloud File ServerEgnytes hybrid technology leverages the benefits of accessibilityand flexibility of Cloud storage integrated with the performance oflocal storage

Vineet Jain

Cloud ContentManagement Program

Direct to vault online technology offers an innovative way to

securely store, share, backup, organize, and remotely accessdigital assets using one integrated solution Dennis J. Cindrich

Web Service Hybrid(SWS-H)

On-premise policy server and cloud-based scanners areintegrated to assure off-premise remote access securityadherence

John Vigouroux

CTERA Portaland CloudPlug

The focus is to protect data where it resides. AES encryption isused before data is sent to its online backup destination. Inaddition, users get an option to encrypt local disk storage

Liran Eshel

SynchronizationOff-Premise

Some startups have adopted a hybrid methodology in their Cloud products to address concerns about security,bandwidth capacity, and reliability. This approach allows them to use various encryption methods and other proprietaryways to secure data stored on Cloud, and it also allows users to work offline with higher performance levelsInsights

Buzzing StartupsAddress Cloud Security Issues

On-Premise

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Cloud The Way Ahead?

Note: 1Grail interviews with Bernard Golden (CEO, HyperStratus); Chenxi Wang (Ph.D., Principal Analyst, Forrester)Source: Grail Research Analysis

Will a Cloud solution support my business needs, or am I losing functionality for a perceived price benefit?How does my solution providers roadmap align with my business needs?How are my Cloud solution providers establishing standards and maintaining the security and privacy of myinformation and by extension, my clients information?

What are my competitors doing in this space? Are they pursuing private, public, or hybrid initiatives?

What are the direct business benefits of Cloud for my company? Why would I rent rather than own?

If you are evaluating a Cloud initiative, always assess your companys readiness, measuring the cost andbenefit for your business within the context of the competitive landscape. Consider:

The evolution of Cloud marks a fundamental shift in our relationship withelectronic assets and our access to that data and information

The Cloud offers great promise; however, companies seeking to implementcloud-based applications have concerns about the security and privacy of publiccloud providers. Until providers offer sufficient clarity and assurance on thesetopics, their customers will implement data protection and security methods on

their own which enable them to overlay a private cloud functionality on top of thepublic cloud offering 1

Hybrid architectures that offer encryption of data at the local or client level, priorto transmission to the Cloud may offer a path forward for business consumption,thereby combining the best of on-premise functionality with that of hosted

solutions for these on-demand services

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About the Author

Jocelyn DeGance Graham - Named by UnitedBusiness Medias CRN as one of the 100 mostinfluential women in IT, Jocelyn currently leads theGrail Research Cloud Center of Excellence andCloud research practice. Jocelyn has deepexpertise in the areas of marketing,communications and research and has spent themajority of her career advising Fortune 100companies including Hewlett-Packard, Intuit, andArthur Andersen on strategic emerging technologydecisions. Prior to joining Grail Research, Jocelyndirected the marketing program for an awardwinning Cloud startup which was recognized byGartner as one of the Coolest EmergingTechnologies of 2010. She holds a Masters

degree in Industrial/Organizational Psychologyand a Bachelor's degree from University ofCalifornia, Santa Barbara.

For More Information Contact:

Jocelyn DeGance Graham([email protected])

Copyright 2010 by Grail Research, LLC

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrievalsystem, or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise withoutthe permission of Grail Research, LLC

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