2010 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast Chris Kunstadter Senior Vice President XL Insurance...

2010 Commercial

GSO Demand

Forecast

Chris Kunstadter

Senior Vice President

XL [email protected]

Cover art by John Sloan/FAA

19 May 2010

22010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast

5/19/2010

Agenda

• Membership and Methodology

• Statistics

• Market Assessment and Trends

• Summary


5/19/2010

Working Group Members

Kevin Reyes (2010 GSO Forecast Chair) Boeing

John Sloan FAA AST

Ken Davidian FAA AST

Lisa Hague Aerospace Corp.

Jeanne Beesley Boeing

Jozsef Lore Boeing

Deborah Facktor Lepore DFL Space

David Keslow Orbital

Peter Stier Sea Launch

Tom Monroe Space Systems/Loral

Alan Keisner SpaceX

Jennifer Micelli Tecolote Research

Veronica Johnson United Launch Alliance

Chris Kunstadter XL Insurance


5/19/2010

Forecast Methodology

• Purpose To determine the GSO satellite launch market addressable by

commercial launch vehicles under the FAA’s licensing regime and by the US launch industry in general

• Information requested of ~90 satellite operators, satellite manufacturers and launch providers, 14 companies responded in 2010 (21 in 2009; 29 in 2008)

• Disappointing participation trend

– Many satellite procurements in process

• Individual and comprehensive responses

• International competitive procurements only


5/19/2010

Forecast Methodology (cont’d)

• Questionnaire on factors affecting satellite procurement plans 11 satellite operators responded in 2010 (13 in 2009; 17 in 2008)

• 5 new responders in 2010

• 3 operators responded in both 2009 and 2010

• Sort satellites by mass categories Small < 2,500 kg

Medium 2,500 to 4,200 kg

Large 4,200 to 5,400 kg

Extra Large > 5,400 kg

• Determine satellite demand by launch vehicle Near-term manifest (2010-2012)

Long-term forecast (2013-2019)


5/19/2010

Forecast Sensitivities

• Numerous factors impact launch forecast Satellite and launch vehicle-related technical issues

Scheduling (dual manifesting / range availability / launch site weather)

New launch vehicles

Business planning / financing

Regulatory / licensing issues

Hosted payloads

ITAR-free satellites

• Realization factor assesses previous forecasts Variation of historical actual satellites / launches vs. forecasted

demand over 5-year rolling period

Realization factor applied to near-term forecast of future activity


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2010 Satellite Demand Forecast

2010 Launch Demand Forecast

2010 Demand Forecast Summary

2010 forecast essentially unchanged from 2009 forecast

Average 20.7 satellites per year

Average 15.7 launches per year


5/19/2010

Split Of Satellites By Launch Vehicle - 2010

Ariane11 Satellites

(6 LVs)

Proton8 Satellites

(8 LVs)

Soyuz1 Satellite

(1 LV)


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Realization Factor

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1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Historical 1st Year Satellite DemandForecast2010 Satellite Demand Forecast

Actual Satellites Launched = Expected Realization

Long-Term Forecast

Near-Term Forecast

Actual Launches/Satellites


5/19/2010

Mass Category Forecast

Below 2,500 kg (<5,510 lbm)

2,500 to 4,200 kg (5,510 - 9,260 lbm)

4,200 to 5,400 kg (9,261 - 11,905 lbm)

Over 5,400kg(>11,905 lbm)

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Long-Term Forecast

Near-Term Forecast

Actual Launches/Satellites


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Dual Launch Forecast

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Dual manifest launch

Single manifest launch

Satellites

Actual Launches/Satellites Long-Term ForecastNear-Term Forecast


5/19/2010

2009-2010 Forecast Comparison

Satellite class2009 Forecast

(2009-2018)2010 Forecast

(2010-2019)

Small 17 17

Medium 74 69

Large 57 55

Extra Large 60 66

Total satellites 208 207

Total launches 157 157


5/19/2010

Comparison of Last 10 Years’ Forecasts

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

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Last four reports show consistent results

Forecast:


5/19/2010

Significant Negative Impact

Some Negative Impact

No EffectSome

Positive Impact

Significant Positive Impact

Compared to 2009

Regional or global economic conditions

0% 45% 45% 9% 0%

Demand for satellite services 0% 18% 27% 27% 27%

Ability to compete with terrestrial services

0% 18% 82% 0% 0%

Availability of financing 0% 18% 45% 18% 18%

Availability of affordable insurance

0% 18% 36% 45% 0%

Consolidation of service providers

0% 0% 73% 27% 0%

Increasing satellite life times 0% 45% 45% 9% 0%

Availability of satellite systems that meet your requirements

0% 0% 55% 36% 9%

Reliability of satellite systems 0% 9% 55% 27% 9%

Availability of launch vehicles that meet your requirements

9% 9% 64% 18% 0%

Reliability of launch systems 9% 0% 18% 64% 9%

Ability to obtain required export licenses

0% 45% 45% 9% 0%

Ability to obtain required operating licenses

0% 9% 73% 18% 0%

Satellite Operator Market Assessment


5/19/2010

Forecast Trends

• Near term (Years 1 to 3) Satellites – stable

Launch demand – slight increase in 2011 reflecting lower pace in 2010

• Natural “bow wave”

Satellite mass – some redistribution, but generally stable

Transponders per satellite – moderate decrease

• Long term (Years 4 to 10) Satellites – consistent with history (~20 satellites/year)

Launch demand – consistent with history (~15 launches/year)

• Natural decrease over time with lack of information


5/19/2010

Forecast Summary

• Ten-year projected average annual demand of 20.7 satellites on 15.7 launches is stable, and consistent with prior years

• Global economic recovery provides encouraging sign of continued stable market

• New markets and new applications continue to emerge

• Forecast methodology is robust, but need to improve responsiveness from market

• GSO forecast is a useful tool and a respected source of market information

2010 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast Chris Kunstadter Senior Vice President XL Insurance...

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