2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

74
A NEW LEADERSHIP ETHOS © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos The Ability to Predict The Ability to Predict
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This slideshow offers a highly practical approach yet as an integral part of a fundamentally new explanation of our world. The theory at the heart of this explanation gives access to a level of meta-awareness that makes new sense of the manifold of organizational and leadership problems that you manage. The predictive power of the underlying theory helps you always stay one step ahead.

Transcript of 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Page 1: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

A NEWLEADERSHIP

ETHOS

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

The Ability to Predict

Page 2: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

The average age of a Fortune-500 company is 15 years

About half of the world’s mergers and acquisitions fail

Leaders stay on at the demise of their organization and nation

In our world of cycles, we try building organizations that “last”

We repeatedly buy millions of books from guru’s that get it wrong

We really believe that our social world differs from our physical world

IS SOCIETY RUNNING INTO A WALLOR AT THE BRINK OF A MAJOR

TRANSFORMATION?

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 3: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

The next wave in how society optimizes its ability to minimize inequalities...

Human inequalities

Market inequalities

Temperature inequalities

Energy inequalities

Any inequalities

A NEW LEADERSHIP ETHOS

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 4: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

So, before strategizing about our world, let’s explore our self first

BE YOUR OWN ANCHOR OF EXPLANATION

Most of us see ourselves at the center of our world map…

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 5: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Watch these 4 situations

Finding Platformfor Growth

Idea

Level Playing Field

...virtual wall

Identifies a new concept

Driven by conviction

Knocks on many doors for funding

Persistently amends the concept

Until securing funds and

acceptance

A

LEADER IN HIS/HER ENVIRONMENT

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 6: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Finding Platformfor Growth

Rising Growth

Resonating with Environment

Nurture NichesIdea

...virtual wall

Turns concept into product

Driven by vision and passion

Builds a basic organization

Cozies up to clients, identifies niches

Proves the business by growth

B

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Watch these 4 situations

LEADER IN HIS/HER ENVIRONMENT

Page 7: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Finding Platformfor Growth

Rising Growth

Resonating with Environment

Nurture NichesIdea

RepeatingProven Success

ProcessS

table Grow

th

...virtual wall

Repeats early proven success

Driven by cost, volume, and quality

Fosters process, flows, and culture

Fans out responsibilities to specialists

Realizes substantial stable growth

C

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Watch these 4 situations

LEADER IN HIS/HER ENVIRONMENT

Page 8: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Finding Platformfor Growth

Rising Growth

Resonating with Environment

Nurture NichesIdea

RepeatingProven Success

ProcessS

table Grow

th

CreatingLevel Playing Field

Declining Growth

Distancing

...virtual wall

Confronts complacency

Distances from established

procedures

Simplifies and purifies organization

Brings in outside standards of success

Achieves profitability but not growth

D

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Watch these 4 situations

LEADER IN HIS/HER ENVIRONMENT

Page 9: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Idea

Finding Platformfor Growth

CreatingLevel Playing Field

Rising Growth

Resonating with Environment

Nurture Niches

RepeatingProven Success

ProcessS

table Grow

th

Declining Growth

Unc

erta

in G

row

th

Distancing

...virtual wall

Introduces a new thinking

Driven by conviction

Aims to re-invent organization/society

May have to make several attempts

Identifies a new platform for growth

A

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Watch these 4 situations

LEADER IN HIS/HER ENVIRONMENT

Page 10: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

CreatingLevel Playing Field

Finding Platformfor Growth

Rising Growth

Resonating with Environment

Nurture NichesIdea

RepeatingProven Success

ProcessS

table Grow

th

Declining Growth

DistancingUnc

erta

in G

row

th

In which state do you feel most at ease?

B

D C

A

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

LEADER IN HIS/HER ENVIRONMENT

Page 11: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

BuilderSearches for niches

Concerned with external inequalities

Leads by vision and passion

Builds individual and collective loyalty

Grower Reproduces, repeats success

Concerned with internal inequalities

Introduces specialists and processes

Leads by culture, sets boundaries

ConfronterSeeks turnaround

Confronts established thinking

Unlocks and opens organization

Shakes up and purifies

TransformerSearches for meaning

Concerned with internal potential

Brings innovators together

Searches for platform for growth

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth Discover/

InnovateNurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Organizational State Leadership Archetype

B

D C

A

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

LET’S MAKE UP THE BALANCE

Leaders caught in web of neural networks…Change possible…

Page 12: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Let us introduce ourselves

BuilderSearches for niches

Concerned with external inequalities

Leads by vision and passion

Builds individual and collective loyalty

Grower Reproduces, repeats success

Concerned with internal inequalities

Leads by culture, sets boundaries

Introduces specialists and processes

ConfronterSeeks turnaround

Confronts established thinking

Unlocks and opens organization

Shakes up and purifies

TransformerSearches for meaning

Concerned with internal potential

Brings innovators together

Searches for platform for growth

B

D C

A

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

DEEPENING THE UNDERSTANDING OF PEERS AND ORGANIZATION

Page 13: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Relating to your world is so much more meaningful

You know who you are You know how you relate to your organization You know how to relate to your peers (and so do your peers) You know how future success can be achieved You know when (and when not) to contribute or dominate You know how to identify your ideal role model

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

FINDINGS

Page 14: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

EXAMPLES

In the following examples, an evolving organization or society often

forces leaders to function in a role that may not be their natural one.

This leaves a largely unused opportunity to identify leaders whose natural role fits the needs

of an evolving organization or society.

Page 15: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronter

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

Muhammad

Ab

û B

akr

ISLAM about 600 CE

CHRISTIANITY about 0 CE Paul

John the Baptist

Jesu

s o

f N

azar

eth

BUDDHISM about 600 BCE

Gau

tam

a B

ud

dh

a

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

HISTORICAL EXAMPLES

Page 16: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

CORPORATE EXAMPLES

APPLE COMPUTERS Steve Jobs

Jo

hn

Scu

lley

Michael Spindler

Gil

Am

elio

MARKS & SPENCER

Lu

c V

an

de

Ve

lde

Stuart Rose

GENERAL ELECTRIC

Ja

ck W

elc

h

Jeffrey Immelt

Breakpoint

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronter

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

† ABN AMRO BANK

Rijkman Groenink

Ja

n K

alff

Ken

Ols

en

Bob Palmer

† DIGITAL EQUIPMENT Ken Olsen – Gordon Bell

GE hasmade abreak withits promote-from-withintradition -

the changesare tough on the manywho aren’t‘dreamertypes’

Business WeekMay 28, 2005

20032007

200320052007

GE sells Chemical Division to SABIC

May, 2007

GE wants to sell Appliance Division

May, 2008

20082009

GE loses AAA-rating and $264 billion in value - did not groom super-managers after all

ReutersMarch, 2009

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 17: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Thomas Jefferson

James Buchanan

Ab

rah

am L

inc

oln

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronter

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

George Washington

Jo

hn

Ad

ams

Ja

me

s M

ad

iso

n

Jo

hn

Ken

ne

dy

Dwight Eisenhower

Jimmy Carter

George W Bush

Rich

ard

Nix

on

– G

era

ld F

ord

Bill C

linto

n

Lyndon B Johnson

George H W Bush

Ro

na

ld R

ea

ga

n

Fran

klin

Ro

os

ev

elt –

Ha

rry Tru

ma

n

Andrew Johnson

1857 – 1869

19

33 –

Breakpoint

1789 – 1817

20

09 P

res

ide

nti

al

Ca

nd

ida

te

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

US PRESIDENTIAL EXAMPLES

Page 18: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Thomas Jefferson

James Buchanan

Ab

rah

am L

inc

oln

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronter

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

George Washington

Jo

hn

Ad

ams

Ja

me

s M

ad

iso

n

Jo

hn

Ken

ne

dy

Dwight Eisenhower

Jimmy Carter

George W Bush

Rich

ard

Nix

on

– G

era

ld F

ord

Bill C

linto

n

Lyndon B Johnson

George H W Bush

Ro

na

ld R

ea

ga

n

Fran

klin

Ro

os

ev

elt –

Ha

rry Tru

ma

n

Andrew Johnson

1857 – 1869

19

33 –

Breakpoint

1789 – 1817

Bar

ac

k O

ba

ma

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

US PRESIDENTIAL EXAMPLES

Page 19: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Nelson Mandela

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronter

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

F W

de

Kle

rk

Fu

ture

Tra

nsf

orm

er

South Africa – Pre-Rainbow Republic

Breakpoint

South Africa – Rainbow Republic

Th

abo

Mb

eki

Jacob Zuma

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

SOUTH-AFRICAN LEADERSHIP EXAMPLES

Page 20: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Boris Yeltsin

Dmitry Medvedev

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronter

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

Mik

hai

l Go

rbac

hev

Breakpoint

Fu

ture

Tra

nsf

orm

er

Russian Federation

Vlad

imir P

utin

Soviet Union

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

RUSSIAN LEADERSHIP EXAMPLES

Page 21: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Robert Mugabe

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronter

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

Ian S

mith

Fu

ture

Tra

nsf

orm

er

Rhodesia – Zimbabwe

Breakpoint

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

ZIMBABWEAN LEADERSHIP EXAMPLES

Page 22: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Remarkable consistencies across different organizations

Inspiring leaders to limit their term Fundamental (rather than symbolic) consistencies Evidence of something more universal

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

FINDINGS

Page 23: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Why have I been able to compare totally different organizations?

What is the common denominator, what are the parallels?

Do these parallels also apply to leaderless “physical” organizations?

If so, what is the role of leaders?

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

SOMETHING MORE UNIVERSAL?

Page 24: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

However, as the following examples show:

Organization does not determine harmonious action but

harmonious action determines organization!

According to any unabridged dictionary, to organize means:

“To form into a whole - consisting of independent parts -

especially for harmonious action”

What does “organization” mean?

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

SOMETHING MORE UNIVERSAL?

Page 25: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

CO2

CO2

CH4 O2O2

CO2

Flame

A certain temperature inequality sets off

a fleeting stream of oxidation order.

Erwin Schrödinger

H2O as by-product unaccounted for

CH4 O2O2

CO2

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

Page 26: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

At a certain temperature inequality,

simultaneous and congruent oxidation behavior

of hot gas molecules emerges spontaneously inside the

behavioral space vacated or created by others that are

moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a visible residue

in the shape of a flame.

Flame

In one universal paragraph...

CO2

CO2

CH4 O2O2

CO2

CH4 O2O2

CO2

H2O as by-product unaccounted for

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

Page 27: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

A certain temperature inequality shapes

the structure of a snowflake.

Kenneth Libbrecht

Snowflake

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

Page 28: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

At a certain temperature inequality,

simultaneous and congruent vibration behavior

of frozen water molecules emerges spontaneously

inside the behavioral space vacated or created by

others that are moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a

visible residue in the shape of a snowflake.

Snowflake

In one universal paragraph...

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

Page 29: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Snowflake Bénard Cell

Heat

View of surface from above

Petri dish

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

A certain temperature inequality makes

molecules follow orderly paths.

Henri Bénard, Ilya Prigogine

Page 30: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

At a certain temperature inequality,

simultaneous and congruent heat-transport behavior

of liquid molecules emerges spontaneously inside the

behavioral space vacated or created by others that are

moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a visible

residue in the shape of a convection cell.

Snowflake Bénard Cell

In one universal paragraph...

Heat

View of surface from above

Petri dish

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

Page 31: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

At a certain day-time inequality,

simultaneous and congruent flapping behavior

of migrating birds emerges spontaneously inside the

behavioral space vacated or created by others that are

moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a visible

residue in the shape of a flock of birds.

Snowflake Bird FlockBénard Cell

Blowin’ in the wind. The Economist (Nov 29 2008) - Strangely enough, leaders of a flock (or of a chase) also benefit through inverted slipstreaming

In one universal paragraph...

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

Page 32: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

At a certain supply/demand inequality,

simultaneous and congruent role-inspired behavior

of employees emerges spontaneously inside the

behavioral space vacated or created by others that are

moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a visible residue

in the shape of a business organization.

Snowflake Bird FlockBénard Cell Organization

In one universal paragraph...

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

Page 33: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Environment Trigger Behavior-Pattern Species Environment-Sustained Organization

Visible Residue

UnderterminedEnvironment

Amplification /Transmission

Emergence / Selectionof Behavior Pattern

Inequality-InspiredBehavior-Pattern Reproduction

4-State Universality of Behavior-Pattern Species Emergence

FlameTemperature

Inequality

Oxidizing

Molecule

Congruently Igniting

Gas Molecules

Snowflake StructureTemperature

Inequality

Settling

Spot

Congruently Vibrating

Frozen Water Molecules

Business OrganizationSupply, Demand

Inequality

Entrepreneurial

Leadership

Congruently Working

People in Multiple Roles

Flock of BirdsDay-light

Inequality

Leading

Bird

Congruently Flapping

Birds

Bénard Cell PatternTemperature

Inequality

Surface

Perturbations

Congruently Moving

Liquid Molecules

Wrap-up

Inequality

Each stage is supported by a mathematical process-description in the domain of chaos theory.

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

Page 34: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

The 2nd Law of ThermodynamicsRudolf Clausius, Ludwig Boltzmann, Erwin Schrödinger, Rod Swenson

Time With Organization

Inequality

Time

Time Without Organization

Gradient = Rate of Inequality Minimization

Nature spontaneously fosters forms of organization to minimize inequalities in the fastest way possible!

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

Page 35: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

The environment – a complex of inequalities – determines the emergence of forms of organization!

“The process of evolution was reversed by returning fruit-flies to their ancestral environment from which they had diverged.”

Simon Conway Morris, “Life’s Solution”, Cambridge University Press (2003)

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

Page 36: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Shared by all forms of organization

Leadership Archetype

Confronter

Transformer

Builder

Grower

Confronter

Stage of Development

Creating a Level Playing Field

Finding a New Platform for Growth

Resonating with the Environment

Repeating Success Ever More Efficiently

Creating a Level Playing Field

Specific to human organization

Inequality-Inspired Behavior-Pattern Reproduction

Behavior-Pattern Emergence

Undertermined Environment

Amplification / Transmission

Emergence / Selection of Behavior Pattern

Undertermined Environment

A

B

C

D

D

State

Human Organization?

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

If organizations emerge by themselves, then what is the role of a leader?

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

Page 37: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Explaining Organization first

Behavior Patterns Visible Outcomes

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

Page 38: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Existential ManifoldVisible Outcomes

Behavior PatternsHidden World

The magazine in whichoutcomes are written

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Iceberg metaphor

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

Existential Manifold Zine = Emzine

Page 39: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Inequality

Behavior-Pattern Species

1

Organization

2

All forms of organization emerge from the behavioral domain

Temperature

Daylight duration

Supply-Demand

Energy

Survival of the least-energy-fitting

Minimizing inequality through

Local Environment

Division of Labor into Roles

Natural Selection of Behavior-Pattern Species

Snowflake

Convection cell

Flock of Birds

Human Organization

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

EMZINE PHENOMENON

Page 40: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Global Scale

Local

Local

Local

Scale

Local Scale

Inequality

Behavior-Pattern Species

1

Organization

2

All forms of organization emerge from the behavioral domain

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

EMZINE PHENOMENON

Page 41: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Organization

Behavior-Pattern Species

Inequality

Division of Labor into Roles

Roles ≡ Complexity

Inequalities ≡ Entropy

Visible Outcomes over Time

Inequalities

Roles

Now: 4000 Minerals

Early Universe: No Minerals

Evolution of Rocks or Minerals

Atoms dynamically arranged in lattices creating unique crystalline

structures - not unlike snowflakes or human organizations

Source: David Corriveau. Dr Robert Hazen rocks Norwich’s geology community. Norwich University (December 2008)

Maintained by most physicistsWorld withers away

Emzine PhenomenonWorld of unimaginable order

Minimizing inequalities

Sum of all inequalities remains unchanged

1

2nd Law of Thermodynamics

1st Law of Thermodynamics

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PHYSICS OF ORGANIZATION

Page 42: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

A new principle of morality?

A new utility principle?

Organization

Behavior-Pattern Species

Inequality

Natural Selection of Behavior-Pattern Species2

Least-Energy Fitting

Behavioral Conditions Simultaneous behavior Sharing inequality-minimizing urge Behavioral space creation and utilization

= Congruent Simultaneity

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PHYSICS OF ORGANIZATION

2nd Law of thermodynamicsPhysics

Economics

Human Conduct

Page 43: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Inequality

Behavior-Pattern Species

1

Organization

2

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

A NEW WINDOW ONTO OUR WORLD

The world, that we observe, too diverse to make sense of

The world of localized energy- inequalities that triggers it

The world of behavior-pattern species that reconciles it

Page 44: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

PREDICTABLE STAGES

A world of behavior-patternsspecies that reconciles it

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

RECONCILING OUR WORLD

Context-specific

Universal

The world, that we observe, too diverse to make sense of

The world of localized energy inequalities that triggers it

LA

WS

OF T

HER

MO

DY

NA

MIC

S

EXPLANATIONS

Page 45: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Alfred Russel Wallace and Charles Darwin: What makes the branching tree of species grow?

Emzine = Zine where

forms of organization are written

Existential Manifold =

forms of organization observed

Niches, Species

Behavioral Domain

Visible Outcomes

Cause

Consequence

Re-explaining Evolution

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PHYSICS OF ORGANIZATION

Page 46: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Reality in truth = an ecosystem of behavior-pattern species

We touch a sub-atomic abyss An atom is at least 15-times smaller than a molecule

An atom is at least 100,000 times bigger than its nucleus

Niches, Species

Behavioral Domain

Visible Outcomes

What is reality, really? Could it be what we touch or observe?

Gautama BuddhaOnly together they arise - pattica sumuppãda

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

EMZINE PHENOMENON

Page 47: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Behavioral Domain

Visible Outcomes

Cause

Consequence

Depicting the cyclical nature of emergence

1 2 3 4

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

EMZINE PHENOMENON

1 2 3 4

Page 48: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Behavioral Domain

Visible Outcomes

GroupCohesion

Source ofMomentum

GroupPerspective

Elasticity ofSocial Forces

Yin-Yang Features

Inward/Closed

Outward/Open

Outward/Open

Inward/Closed

Autonomy

Interdependence

Org

anizatio

nInd

ivid

ual

Fragmentation

IntegrationInelastic

Inelastic

Vision

Culture

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Identify where you are to learn where you go

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Page 49: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Inclination

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Growth Rate

Rising

Declining

Stab

le

Un

cert

ain

Universal Features

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Identify where you are to learn where you go

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Behavioral Domain

Visible Outcomes

Page 50: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Features of 4-State Universality of Emergence

BehavioralDomain

StateUndeterminedEnvironment

Amplification/Transmission

Emergence/Selectionof Behavior Patterns

Behavior PatternReproduction

Chaos PhenomenonOpenChaos

StochasticResonance

Behavior-AttractorDevelopment

ItinerantBehavior Attractor

Features

Group PerspectiveOutward/

OpenInward/Closed

Outward/Open

Inward/Closed

Source of MomentumInterdependence/

IndividualIndividual/

Need for AutonomyAutonomy/

OrganizationOrganization/

Need for Interdependence

Social ForceOpen-Mindedness/

BeliefBelief/Vision

Vision/Rulebooks

Rulebooks/Culture

Group CohesionContinuing

FragmentationFragmentation/

Emerging IntegrationContinuingIntegration

Integration/Emerging Fragmentation

Leadership InclinationConfront/

PurifyDiscover/Innovate

Nurture/ Niches

Specialize/Optimize

Growth RateDeclining/Uncertain

Uncertain/Rising

Rising/Stable

Stable/Declining

State Crises

Measure of Achievement New InitiativesIdentification of NewPlatform for Growth

Growth-ProducingBehavior Patterns

Degree of Responsivenessand Openness

Cause of CrisisLack of Amplification/

TransmissionNo Behavior-PatternEmergence/Selection

No Behavior-PatternReproduction/Improvement

Inadequate Response to New Inequalities

Crisis SolutionRe-Division of Labor

(Next state inspires roles)

Re-Division of Labor(Next state

inspires roles)

Re-Division of Labor(Next state

inspires roles)

Re-Division of Labor(Next state

inspires roles)

Identify where you are to learn where you go

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Transformer Builder GrowerConfronterLeadership Archetype

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Page 51: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Michael Spindler

APPLE Steve Jobs

Gil

Am

elio

Predicting problems, solutions and leadership needs Fro

m F

eatures to

Fo

recast

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronter

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

Breakpoint

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

My money's on turning iTunes into an iMedia store, and developing iWork and iLife into the Cloud.

Why Apple is Building a Massive $1 Billion Data Center…

Paving the wayfor Job’s successor…

Page 52: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Fro

m F

eatures to

Fo

recast

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronter

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

Breakpoint

Jo

hn

F. Sm

ith

Rick Wagoner

GENERAL MOTORS R. Stempel - J. Smale

Ro

ge

r B

. S

mit

h

Fritz Henderson - CEOA true Transformer?

Protégé of Confronter, Rick Wagoner Once Accountant with PWC Once GM’s CFO

Early 2009Capable of re-inventing GM?http://anewleadershipethos.blogspot.com/

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Predicting problems, solutions and leadership needs

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Page 53: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Jo

hn

F. Sm

ith

Rick Wagoner

GENERAL MOTORS R. Stempel - J. Smale

Ro

ge

r B

. S

mit

h

Fro

m F

eatures to

Fo

recast

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronter

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

Breakpoint

Edward Whitacre

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Predicting problems, solutions and leadership needs

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Page 54: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Kats

ua

ki Wa

tana

be

TOYOTA Fujio Chō

Fro

m F

eatures to

Fo

recast

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronter

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

Breakpoint

Akio ToyodaReturn of the Yoda

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

http://anewleadershipethos.blogspot.com/

Predicting problems, solutions and leadership needs

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Page 55: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Rising

Jack Welch, GROWER

19811972

R. H. Jones, BUILDER

Rising

Declining

2001

Jeffrey Immelt, CONFRONTER

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Predicting share-price evolutions

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Page 56: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Declining

2003

Rick Wagoner, CONFRONTER

Roger B. Smith, TRANSFORMER

1981

Undetermined

1990

Robert Stempel- John G. Smale, BUILDER

Rising

John F. Smith, GROWER

1996

Rising

Predicting share-price evolutions

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Page 57: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

1977

Steve Jobs, BUILDER

Steve Jobs, BUILDER

Rising

John Sculley, GROWER

Rising

1985

Michael Spindler, CONFRONTER

Declining

1993

Gil Amelio, TRANSFORMER

1996

Undetermined

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Predicting share-price evolutions

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Page 58: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Improve share-price evolution by appointing the right leader

LEADERSHIP ARCHETYPE REVENUE GROWTH RATESHARE-PRICE EVOLUTION

A

B

C

D

State

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Rising

Declining

Undetermined

Rising

Stable Growth

Declining Growth

Uncertain Growth

Rising Growth

Grower

Confronter

Transformer

Builder

Predicting share-price evolutions

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Page 59: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Nature is out to improve the efficiency of forms of organization – organizations

spontaneously emerge to minimize the inequalities in an era or environment

Awareness of their own functioning and emergence

The capacity to improve on their own emergence

They are self-referential or able to learn from self

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

From physical organizations - such as snowflakes

WHAT DISTINGUISHES HUMAN ORGANIZATION?

Page 60: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Nature is out to improve the efficiency of forms of organization – organizations

spontaneously emerge to minimize the inequalities in an era or environment

Leadership is not about action but about awareness

Leadership is not about managing time but about simultime

Leadership is not eternal but temporal

Leadership is not about leaders but about organization -

Ubuntu

2 3

1 4

2 3

1 4

2 3

1 4

2 3

1 4

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

A NEW LEADERSHIP ETHOS

Page 61: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

DoubleLoop

The traditional playing field of leaders

Roles / Action

Goals

Loop 1

Awareness

SingleLoop

Nation / Company / Business Unit / Team

Creating meta-awareness: A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

External / Internal Conditions

Loop 2

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Page 62: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Maybe separated spatially but mostly separated by time…

Sto

ve Pip

es of A

waren

ess

Y

Roles / Action

Goals

External / Internal Conditions

Loop 1

Loop 2

X

Awareness

Roles / Action

Goals

External / Internal Conditions

Loop 1

Loop 2

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Creating meta-awareness: A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Page 63: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

X

Roles / Action

Goals

External / Internal Conditions

Loop 1

Loop 2

Awareness

Y

Roles / Action

Goals

External / Internal Conditions

Loop 1

Loop 2

Maybe separated spatially but mostly separated by time…

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

ConfronterT

ran

sfo

rme

rG

row

er

Builder

LocalSymmetry

Global GaugeSymmetry

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Meta-Awareness

maintaining

/Creating meta-awareness: A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Page 64: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

TripleLoop

SingleLoop

DoubleLoop

Nations / Companies / Business Units / Teams

Awareness

Meta-Awareness

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Creating meta-awareness: The third loop

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Page 65: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Emzine ProfileIdentification Expert Questionnaire

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

EXPE

RT S

YSTE

M

A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness - The third loop

APPLIED TECHNOLOGY

Page 66: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Three-step build-up of organizational meta-awareness

A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness - The third loop

APPLIED TECHNOLOGY

Page 67: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Am I the right leader for my organization?

A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness - The third loop

APPLIED TECHNOLOGY

Page 68: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

EM

ZIN

E P

RO

FIL

E

Emzine Profile

Identification

Questionnaire

Page 69: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

EM

ZIN

E P

RO

FIL

E

Page 70: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Analyze fit

A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness - The third loop

APPLIED TECHNOLOGY

Page 71: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

FROM TO

Emzine

Awareness

Timeless Leadership

Built to Last

Due Diligence

Creation, Causality

Equality, Dependence

Time Interval

Sein, Being

Meta-awareness

Temporal Leadership

Grown to Achieve

Future Diligence

Self-creation, Conditioning

Inequality, Interdependence

Simultime

Dasein, Becoming

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Leadership Trend Breakthroughs

HOW SOCIETY WILL DEAL WITH INEQUALITIES

Page 72: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

5-MINUTE VIDEO SUMMARY

CLICK HERE TO RUN

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 73: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

www.emzine.org

Page 74: 2010 ASTD Keynote Speech

Learning Points for Stock Analysts

Learning Points for HR/Executive Search Consultants

Learning Points for Leadership Coaches

Learning Points for Management Consultants and M&A Experts

Learning Points for Leaders

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

QUESTIONS

Learning Points for Physicists, Economists and Philosophers